The stock market thread Part II (The GME Phenomenom)

[McGarnagle]

This is the first upward movement I've had in quite a while.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Three years ago today (on March 29th, 2020), I said in a post that "Now is probably a good time to buy [stocks] since everything is much cheaper than it was a month ago". One person argued with me, primarily drawing on research from hedge fund manager John Hussman, to suggest that the stock market was overvalued. I'm not going to name the poster, because I'm not trying to embarrass him. Instead, I'm trying to show people why listening to "perma-bears" (like Hussman) is generally a bad idea.

To quote myself: "I've been investing in the market long enough to know that every time there's a correction, the "this time is different" crowd shows up. There were people who said in 2008 that "this time is different" - that the stock market was shown be a sham, the economy's foundation was faulty, and it would taken decades to recover. It took about six years (before taking into account dividends). People said the same thing in 2001. And in 1987." And that's exactly what happened - people argued that this correction was somehow different than all the others.

The person I was debating didn't specify which of Hussman's three equity funds was the best. So let's look at all three, and compare it to the S&P 500 as a whole (which can easily be tracked through a number of index funds and ETF's):

	29-Mar-20​	Today	Change
S&P	2,541.47​	4,027.81​	58.5%​
HSGFX	6.11​	6.85​	12.1%​
HSIEX	8.03​	7.82​	-2.6%​
HSAFX	9.74​	9.52​	-2.3%​

If you didn't panic during the "COVID crash" of March 2020, and did nothing more than buy a fund tracking the S&P as a whole, you would have gained almost 60% in three years. If you bought equal amounts of Hussman's three funds, you would have gained less than 3% in three years (which, obviously, is well below the rate of inflation). There's really no comparison.

I'm not posting this to show how smart I am. Just the opposite - I'm not smart enough to time the stock market, which is why I mostly invest in general funds that track the market as a whole. Be careful of perma-bears like John Hussman. He's been calling for a stock market crash almost every year since 2000. And sometimes he's right (2001, 2008-09, 2020) - but he loses so much ground in the years he's wrong, that it's a bad investment strategy.

(In case anyone accuses me of cherry-picking the data, look at this link, which is from Hussman's own website. Since the fund's inception, it's annualized return has lagged the S&P by more than 5.5% - which works out to roughly a 330% difference in total).

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Three years ago today (on March 29th, 2020), I said in a post that "Now is probably a good time to buy [stocks] since everything is much cheaper than it was a month ago". One person argued with me, primarily drawing on research from hedge fund manager John Hussman, to suggest that the stock market was overvalued. I'm not going to name the poster, because I'm not trying to embarrass him. Instead, I'm trying to show people why listening to "perma-bears" (like Hussman) is generally a bad idea.

To quote myself: "I've been investing in the market long enough to know that every time there's a correction, the "this time is different" crowd shows up. There were people who said in 2008 that "this time is different" - that the stock market was shown be a sham, the economy's foundation was faulty, and it would taken decades to recover. It took about six years (before taking into account dividends). People said the same thing in 2001. And in 1987." And that's exactly what happened - people argued that this correction was somehow different than all the others.

The person I was debating didn't specify which of Hussman's three equity funds was the best. So let's look at all three, and compare it to the S&P 500 as a whole (which can easily be tracked through a number of index funds and ETF's):

	29-Mar-20​	Today	Change
S&P	2,541.47​	4,027.81​	58.5%​
HSGFX	6.11​	6.85​	12.1%​
HSIEX	8.03​	7.82​	-2.6%​
HSAFX	9.74​	9.52​	-2.3%​

If you didn't panic during the "COVID crash" of March 2020, and did nothing more than buy a fund tracking the S&P as a whole, you would have gained almost 60% in three years. If you bought equal amounts of Hussman's three funds, you would have gained less than 3% in three years (which, obviously, is well below the rate of inflation). There's really no comparison.

I'm not posting this to show how smart I am. Just the opposite - I'm not smart enough to time the stock market, which is why I mostly invest in general funds that track the market as a whole. Be careful of perma-bears like John Hussman. He's been calling for a stock market crash almost every year since 2000. And sometimes he's right (2001, 2008-09, 2020) - but he loses so much ground in the years he's wrong, that it's a bad investment strategy.

(In case anyone accuses me of cherry-picking the data, look at this link, which is from Hussman's own website. Since the fund's inception, it's annualized return has lagged the S&P by more than 5.5% - which works out to roughly a 330% difference in total).

I would like to know who this poster is.

 

[McGarnagle]

Three years ago today (on March 29th, 2020), I said in a post that "Now is probably a good time to buy [stocks] since everything is much cheaper than it was a month ago". One person argued with me, primarily drawing on research from hedge fund manager John Hussman, to suggest that the stock market was overvalued. I'm not going to name the poster, because I'm not trying to embarrass him. Instead, I'm trying to show people why listening to "perma-bears" (like Hussman) is generally a bad idea.

To quote myself: "I've been investing in the market long enough to know that every time there's a correction, the "this time is different" crowd shows up. There were people who said in 2008 that "this time is different" - that the stock market was shown be a sham, the economy's foundation was faulty, and it would taken decades to recover. It took about six years (before taking into account dividends). People said the same thing in 2001. And in 1987." And that's exactly what happened - people argued that this correction was somehow different than all the others.

The person I was debating didn't specify which of Hussman's three equity funds was the best. So let's look at all three, and compare it to the S&P 500 as a whole (which can easily be tracked through a number of index funds and ETF's):

	29-Mar-20​	Today	Change
S&P	2,541.47​	4,027.81​	58.5%​
HSGFX	6.11​	6.85​	12.1%​
HSIEX	8.03​	7.82​	-2.6%​
HSAFX	9.74​	9.52​	-2.3%​

If you didn't panic during the "COVID crash" of March 2020, and did nothing more than buy a fund tracking the S&P as a whole, you would have gained almost 60% in three years. If you bought equal amounts of Hussman's three funds, you would have gained less than 3% in three years (which, obviously, is well below the rate of inflation). There's really no comparison.

I'm not posting this to show how smart I am. Just the opposite - I'm not smart enough to time the stock market, which is why I mostly invest in general funds that track the market as a whole. Be careful of perma-bears like John Hussman. He's been calling for a stock market crash almost every year since 2000. And sometimes he's right (2001, 2008-09, 2020) - but he loses so much ground in the years he's wrong, that it's a bad investment strategy.

(In case anyone accuses me of cherry-picking the data, look at this link, which is from Hussman's own website. Since the fund's inception, it's annualized return has lagged the S&P by more than 5.5% - which works out to roughly a 330% difference in total).

History shows that stonks always go up in the long run, even if it's not a straight path to get there. What I remember from three years ago is fighting with all the TSLA IS OVERVALUED REEEEEEEEEEEE posters.

 

[TheGreenTBer]

Three years ago today (on March 29th, 2020), I said in a post that "Now is probably a good time to buy [stocks] since everything is much cheaper than it was a month ago". One person argued with me, primarily drawing on research from hedge fund manager John Hussman, to suggest that the stock market was overvalued. I'm not going to name the poster, because I'm not trying to embarrass him. Instead, I'm trying to show people why listening to "perma-bears" (like Hussman) is generally a bad idea.

To quote myself: "I've been investing in the market long enough to know that every time there's a correction, the "this time is different" crowd shows up. There were people who said in 2008 that "this time is different" - that the stock market was shown be a sham, the economy's foundation was faulty, and it would taken decades to recover. It took about six years (before taking into account dividends). People said the same thing in 2001. And in 1987." And that's exactly what happened - people argued that this correction was somehow different than all the others.

The person I was debating didn't specify which of Hussman's three equity funds was the best. So let's look at all three, and compare it to the S&P 500 as a whole (which can easily be tracked through a number of index funds and ETF's):

	29-Mar-20​	Today	Change
S&P	2,541.47​	4,027.81​	58.5%​
HSGFX	6.11​	6.85​	12.1%​
HSIEX	8.03​	7.82​	-2.6%​
HSAFX	9.74​	9.52​	-2.3%​

If you didn't panic during the "COVID crash" of March 2020, and did nothing more than buy a fund tracking the S&P as a whole, you would have gained almost 60% in three years. If you bought equal amounts of Hussman's three funds, you would have gained less than 3% in three years (which, obviously, is well below the rate of inflation). There's really no comparison.

I'm not posting this to show how smart I am. Just the opposite - I'm not smart enough to time the stock market, which is why I mostly invest in general funds that track the market as a whole. Be careful of perma-bears like John Hussman. He's been calling for a stock market crash almost every year since 2000. And sometimes he's right (2001, 2008-09, 2020) - but he loses so much ground in the years he's wrong, that it's a bad investment strategy.

(In case anyone accuses me of cherry-picking the data, look at this link, which is from Hussman's own website. Since the fund's inception, it's annualized return has lagged the S&P by more than 5.5% - which works out to roughly a 330% difference in total).

I don't invest in anything other than passive funds, personally. I don't have the risk tolerance for active management.

 

[McGarnagle]

Looks like TSLA missed delivery numbers so there may be some short-term pain, but nothing rattles me as a long term hodler

 

[McGarnagle]

TSLA continuing to kill me. Possible buying opportunity but I still want to rebalance and have been putting more into BTC for its probable bull charge.

 

[SoulOnIce]

Looks like TSLA missed delivery numbers so there may be some short-term pain, but nothing rattles me as a long term hodler

With the way Tesla’s cutting prices, I’m not surprised stock went down. But I know elon mentioned this may happen a while ago, to get bigger market share.

Next bull run for crypto will be interesting.

 

[Jiminy Cricket]

I have made Load`s of money on Apple stock this year, So much for steve Job`s. The company is doing Great without him. So i guess he wasn`t such a Jenius after all. I am also loading up on more Bed, Bath, & Beyond, i will alway`s believe in that store. Great fragrance`s.

 

[Jiminy Cricket]

1. This jumps off one of the lower points the Dow was at in the 1978-1982 range, when it was already about 65% off the 1965 high and had dropped below the 1974 low. Of course it's going to look really good from there. Spoiler: we're not at the same point in time in 2020. Jump off March, 2000 and see how those gains look compared to having sat in Treasuries or even a money market account.

2. Even with today's massive rally, everyone who's "systematically put money to work continuously" (read: dollar-cost averaging) in the market is still flat for the last 5 1/2 years. Not "flat after accounting for inflation," I mean "your total return over that period is 0.00%." As of yesterday's close, you were flat for nearly 7 years. If (when) we hit 2100, you'll be flat for 8 years. 2000? 8 1/2 years. 1250 (about where I expect we'll land)? 23 years of buy-and-hold gains will be wiped out. 25 points below that? It'll wipe out everything back to 1995. Inflation-adjusted? It's even worse.

Short-term timing? I agree, 99.99% of people shouldn't do that. Long-term "set it and forget it" a la Ron Pompeil, though? That's just as dumb, IMO. Gains are paper only until you sell, and way too many people won't do that because they fear losing more gains. Buy-and-hold is great as long as stocks go up forever. When they don't, buy-and-hold quickly turns into losses because your cost basis has increased over time. Never be afraid to take gains, don't just put blind faith in "everything will always go back up" because like irrational behavior on the way up, the market can stay irrational longer on the way down than you want to believe is possible.

 

[SlpLessInMuskoka18]

For any cse fanatics... Do some digging up on Nuran Wireless if you have some time. It's setting up to move with the release of some incoming funding. 6m mc w/ over 800m under contract.

Nur - Tech/Telecom

 

[Neil Racki]

Nvidia .. think I missed the boat on getting in early on that one.

f***

 

[John Price]

djia looking good today for my stonks

 

[Neil Racki]

Three years ago today (on March 29th, 2020), I said in a post that "Now is probably a good time to buy [stocks] since everything is much cheaper than it was a month ago". One person argued with me, primarily drawing on research from hedge fund manager John Hussman, to suggest that the stock market was overvalued. I'm not going to name the poster, because I'm not trying to embarrass him. Instead, I'm trying to show people why listening to "perma-bears" (like Hussman) is generally a bad idea.

I bought Boeing and Alibaba during covid ... look at the big brain on Brad

 

[McGarnagle]

I've been mostly riding the BTC/ETH wave and haven't been checking in as much on my other holdings. My FAANG holdings are pretty stagnant now, is that mainly just typical late Q1 doldrums or anything more fundamental? I'm a hodler either way, don't really do much tinkering with the portfolio.

Also, I used to be extremely imbalanced toward TSLA from 2019 through last year, but my portfolio percentages between it and BTC have basically reversed just on price action alone. Elon's killing me with all his dumb shit on the side and the intentional murder of Twitter having a crossover effect on TSLA and SpaceX, though I'm still a believer in Tesla's technological capacity to radically change the energy market and their huge advantage over legacy automakers in terms of EV production and distribution, so I'll hold for long term with a skeptical eye.

 

[John Price]

 

[McGarnagle]

TSLA missed earnings expectations by like 12%, they had to layoff a lot of their workforce and the stock is....up 10% after hours.

I don't understand anything anymore.

I've been BTC maxing the last few months anyway, but I need to get some exposure into NVDA at some point.