Prospect Info: The Second Overall Pick Thread: Part III (Kakko/Hughes Talk)

[Ola]

Well, Crosby did score better than Barkov, but I was talking about skill. And Hughes didn't even play at u-20s last year so I don't get the point of these unfair comparisons. Players tend to be better with a year more of development, that much is obvious. But I really don't get the point of using Crosby. Hughes doesn't dominate the boards even vs players his age.

Why is the comparison unfair?? I list the differences and writes what conclusion I draw from them.

Although I didn't see Crosby face many 16.5 y/os at that age, I am sure he didn't dominate the boards against them either. He was tiny and weak.

I think you misunderstand how comparisons work. Its not a mathematical formula like X=1, if X+1=2. I am not saying that Hughes is going to be Crosby, and I think that is pretty obvious.

A player that is thin as a thread normally benefits -- more -- with time from natural growth than a player the same age that is more developed. I think its hard to argue against that. Can I guarantee that Hughes will benefit more than Kakko from his natural growth? Of course not. Its a guess. But like Crosby certainly benefited more from his natural growth than Barkov did -- Barkov was to a much larger extent a boy in a man's body at that age, right? -- its easy to lean towards that direction. My bet is that this is normally the case searching my memory bank.

I think its a really tough call, I am just trying to explain how I would reason when making that tough call. Could I be wrong? Should I even draw some other conclusion because my reasoning is flawed? Certainly possible. But I hope it doesn't come across as me trying to motivate my viewpoint with dishonest comparisons. Wasn't my intent.

 

[Edge]

Still lot of people are saying Hughes is the best player on the draft, today, really?
Not certainly against top competition.

They also say Hughes has the highest ceiling, why?

These are honest questions but at times real difficult to get good answers, it just seems like it's mainly scouts having Hughes #1 for such a long time. Well great argument.

I want Kakko to New York Rangers so I have no reasons to push for Kakko to Devils, but it seems to odd to not be even able to talk about Hughes vs Kakko as there's a clear difference between the 2 and the toughest games of their careers shouldn't mean anything.

It has to do with how teams have to adjust to him, how his impact reverberates up and down a lineup, and where you think he'll be when he's physically mature.

When scouts look at players, they're not just looking at how a player looks today, they're looking at how he projects 3, 5 or 7 years down the line. They compare him to past examples to see how he's done, and they try to determine how a player performs with more experience, more strength, and a different supporting cast.

Sometimes you have a kid who dominates as a teenager. He's bigger, stronger, more developed than his competition. Unfortunately, sometime it also means he's peaked.

Other times you have a kid who doesn't post all-world numbers, but is playing with a rag tag crew of linemates. Other times numbers are elevated because his linemates are boosting the on-ice results.

In this case, you have two exceptionally talented players. But Hughes is probably the more naturally skilled of the two, which says something because Kakko himself has elite skills. But you also have to take into account that Hughes is 3-5 inches shorter, and 25-40 pounds lighter than Kakko right now. So a lot of scouts are trying to gauge what Hughes looks like at 5'11, 190 as opposed to 5'10 and 165. I think Kakko could step into the NHL right now and have a bigger impact than Hughes. But I think Hughes, with time, is likely to eclipse him.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

If he felt they had very even ceilings would Gorton go for Kakko at #1 because of a logjam at center? I don't think you can discount a #1 center driving the offense based on lesser centers on the roster.

Hughes
Zib (3 years remaining, UFA)
Strome (1 year remaining, RFA)
Chytil (1 year remaining, RFA)
Howden (RFA)
Andersson (1 year remaining, RFA)
Namestnikov (1 year remaining, UFA)
Nieves (1 year remaining, RFA)

Puts the Rangers at a disadvantage when trying to deal one or more of them... then again a lot of expiring contracts and who knows if Hughes will be given that #1-#2 center position throughout his entire rookie season. He could see AHL time.

Where I see the issue is Chytil, Howden, Strome & Andersson vying for 2 spots. Someone will be the odd man out or have to move to wing. Nieves and Names are expendable, though Names has some value that would be diminished by the drafting of Hughes.

I think Chytil could move to wing, maybe Andersson (Even though I like him, that pick will look even worse if we get Hughes)

That being said, landing Hughes would make the Rangers a little more attractive to Panarin and free agent wingers.

Lias and Chytil have 2 years remaining, same as Howden.

 

[TheBloodyNine]

It has to do with how teams have to adjust to him, how his impact reverberates up and down a lineup, and where you think he'll be when he's physically mature.

When scouts look at players, they're not just looking at how a player looks today, they're looking at how he projects 3, 5 or 7 years down the line. They compare him to past examples to see how he's done, and they try to determine how a player performs with more experience, more strength, and a different supporting cast.

Sometimes you have a kid who dominates as a teenager. He's bigger, stronger, more developed than his competition. Unfortunately, sometime it also means he's peaked.

Other times you have a kid who doesn't post all-world numbers, but is playing with a rag tag crew of linemates. Other times numbers are elevated because his linemates are boosting the on-ice results.

In this case, you have two exceptionally talented players. But Hughes is probably the more naturally skilled of the two, which says something because Kakko himself has elite skills. But you also have to take into account that Hughes is 3-5 inches shorter, and 25-40 pounds lighter than Kakko right now. So a lot of scouts are trying to gauge what Hughes looks like at 5'11, 190 as opposed to 5'10 and 165. I think Kakko could step into the NHL right now and have a bigger impact than Hughes. But I think Hughes, with time, is likely to eclipse him.

I think the next question after that is, by how much will he eclipse him?

 

[HockeyBasedNYC]

Lias and Chytil have 2 years remaining, same as Howden.

They both have this upcoming season and they are RFA. 1 year. Is this not right?

New York Rangers Team Salary Cap 2018-2019

 

[HockeyBasedNYC]

Oh yeah thats all wrong. Deleting that site as a bookmark. Geeze. They dont even have Nieves in the system.

 

[Off Sides]

Oh yeah thats all wrong. Deleting that site as a bookmark. Geeze. They dont even have Nieves in the system.

I tend to use this site, which seems to be updated quickly and usually very accurate.

New York Rangers - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

 

[HockeyBasedNYC]

I tend to use this site, which seems to be updated quickly and usually very accurate.

New York Rangers - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thanks, that is a lot better.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

They both have this upcoming season and they are RFA. 1 year. Is this not right?

New York Rangers Team Salary Cap 2018-2019

The site you use doesn't seem to take slides into consideration. Capfriendly.com is the way to go

 

[The Crypto Guy]

4 hours till Kakko time!!

Airing on the NHL Network again, can't wait.

 

[GordonGecko]

Kakko is Coming

 

[Edge]

I think the next question after that is, by how much will he eclipse him?

Hard to say. I think Kakko has the edge on goals, Hughes probably on points. But it could very well a Mac-Barkov type scenario. That's one of the reasons I'm have zero anxiety about any of this. We literally have the easiest pick in the draft.

 

[GordonGecko]

Hard to say. I think Kakko has the edge on goals, Hughes probably on points. But it could very well a Mac-Barkov type scenario. That's one of the reasons I'm have zero anxiety about any of this. We literally have the easiest pick in the draft.

And what has been a chronic problem with the Rangers going back many years now... no closers! Too many passers, unselfish players, not getting the shot on net. We need a pure goal scorer so bad

 

[Edge]

And what has been a chronic problem with the Rangers going back many years now... no closers! Too many passers, unselfish players, not getting the shot on net. We need a pure goal scorer so bad

I think Kakko fits the bill in the sense that he'll put pucks in the net, but he's also a well-rounded offensive player. So while you're looking at 30-40 goals, you could very well be looking at 90-100 total points.

 

[llwyd]

Hard to say. I think Kakko has the edge on goals, Hughes probably on points. But it could very well a Mac-Barkov type scenario. That's one of the reasons I'm have zero anxiety about any of this. We literally have the easiest pick in the draft.

That's pretty much it for you guys, no anxiety. Projecting is in any case an inexact science and now New Jersey has all the pressure to divine, whatever happens, you will in any case get a top prospect in a year when two players are really separated from the rest. Nice to visit your board, btw, am not really attached to any particular NHL team, just follow top Finnish players I would personally pick Kakko, but am a Finn and a pure amateur so what do I know. Hughes is amazingly fast and skilled and might have a higher ceiling.

 

[Edge]

That's pretty much it for you guys, no anxiety. Projecting is in any case an inexact science and now New Jersey has all the pressure to divine, whatever happens, you will in any case get a top prospect in a year when two players are really separated from the rest. Nice to visit your board, btw, am not really attached to any particular NHL team, just follow top Finnish players I would personally pick Kakko, but am a Finn and a pure amateur so what do I know. Hughes is amazingly fast and skilled and might have a higher ceiling.

While I continue to have Hughes first, and I estimate the vast majority of scouts do as well, I will also say that it wouldn't be shocking if Kakko turned out to be the better player.

In other words it wouldn't be an out of this world possibility like Bobby Ryan becoming better than Crosby.

 

[PlamsUnlimited]

While I continue to have Hughes first, and I estimate the vast majority of scouts do as well, I will also say that it wouldn't be shocking if Kakko turned out to be the better player.

In other words it wouldn't be an out of this world possibility like Bobby Ryan becoming better than Crosby.

Something I see a lot of is people assuming Kakko is done developing already.

I could be wrong but I fail to see how this is possible. I think it's weird that people assume that of him and assume Hughes won't get bigger/stronger.

 

[LionsHeart]

I think Kakko has the bigger immediately impact, but Hughes will be the better player in the long run.

What a great "problem" to have.

 

[romba]

Scandinavians should stick together.

Yea and New Yorkers should too. Doesn't mean I'm rooting for Isles, Mets or Jets lol. In fact I'm actively rooting for their failure.

 

[New York RKY]

Kakko is Coming

You should hurry to a restroom.

 

[llwyd]

While I continue to have Hughes first, and I estimate the vast majority of scouts do as well, I will also say that it wouldn't be shocking if Kakko turned out to be the better player.

In other words it wouldn't be an out of this world possibility like Bobby Ryan becoming better than Crosby.

Yeah, I would think they are within the margin of error. And Kakko has made some amazing strides this season, even this spring. I've seen him play and was still absolutely astonished to see him in these last three matches against really high calibre players in high tempo play. And once Hughes gets stronger it might be even more astonishing. So, only time will tell...

 

[Ola]

I see 0 Crosby in Hughes. Crosby is like Superman grinder type of a player.

Now, nobody would have described him like that when he was 18.

 

[broadwayblue]

I think he would go with Kakko but not because he's the most NHL ready. I think no GM would use that argument at 1st overall. Kakko however has probably the same upside as Hughes.

A lot of people defending Hughes are using the "Hughes will still grow" argument as if Kakko won't grow anymore at age 18. They're 3 months apart in terms of age. Kakko is just a different player. In many ways this draft reminds me of 2004 when the choice was Ovechkin or Malkin. You cannot go wrong here. It just depends on who you like more on draft day and I know the Rangers have seen a lot of Kakko simply because of the ties between TPS and the Rangers. Drafting Reunanen, Virta and Pajuniemi from them, signing Georgiev from them and their Finnish scout, Mikko Eloranta, still has ties to TPS as well.

Again, whether or not Kakko grows any more has nothing to do with the issue of whether Hughes will mature into a play with sufficient size and strength to allow him to become a franchise player. Nobody is questioning KK's size. Hughes has the tools to dominate, but the knock on him is size...so whether you think he's going to reach his ceiling may likely have a lot to do with how much size and muscle he puts on.

 

[Edge]

Something I see a lot of is people assuming Kakko is done developing already.

I could be wrong but I fail to see how this is possible. I think it's weird that people assume that of him and assume Hughes won't get bigger/stronger.

I don't know if its so much that Kakko has seen as being done developing, so much as he already looks and plays closer to how a man would. So while he's not done growing (physically or skill-wise), there's a feeling that he is a station or two ahead of Hughes when it comes to his final destination.

 

[Ola]

Scandinavians should stick together.

Not in hockey, this is where I grew up:

Storbråk i Haparanda - efter Finlands guld | Tre Kronor | Expressen

Big fight in Haparanda - after Finland's gold

Published May 16, 2011 at 13.39 Updated May 16, 2011 at 16.01
Fights, assault, a person hit by a car -- and the public burning of the Swedish flag.

Several thousand Finns invaded Haparanda and war-like atmosphere arose after the World Championship Final.
- If we had the right to close the border, we would have done so, but government decisions would be required, says Christer Holm, internal officer at the police in Haparanda, to SportExpressen.se.

Finland's World Cup gold after 6-1 against Sweden was the country's second ever. To the great joy of the Haparanda police.
- It is lucky that it is not too often that Finland takes the World Cup gold, says Christer Holm, internal officer at the police in Haparanda.
Christer Holm was himself on site in Haparanda's streets last time it happened in 1995. There were no beautiful scenes.

Last night it was time again.

Burned flag
After the final signal, several thousand victorious Finns crossed the border and entered Haparanda.
The atmosphere was sometimes very upset with fights, several abusers, a person hit by a car and several cases of public burning of the Swedish flag.
- That they burn the Swedish flag makes us a little alarmed. It is their way of celebrating of course, but it will be a little uneasy, says Christer Holm.
Citizens of Haparanda are used to this. Always when the two neighboring countries play against each other, it usually gets messy.
- It's a little match in the match across the border, says Christer Holm.
Yesterday there were no more serious injuries, but for the police part an extra effort was needed which one would have liked to have been without.
- If we had the right to close the border, we would have done so, but perhaps government decisions are needed, says Christer Holm.

"Honor at stake"
Haparanda residents do not seem to have appreciated the visit from across the border. The reports of assault that were filed came from Finns.
- It is a lot of honor that is at stake, there is always someone who loses the barriers and gives again, says Christer Holm.

And the Swedes are not better themselves.
- If Sweden wins, the Swedes go to the Finnish side, says Christer Holm.

On the Finnish side, you do not have the same problems with the Swedes, according to Robert Sonntag, criminal offense police He does not believe that this is because Swedes are calmer, but that Finland wins the World Cup so rarely.

- It doesn't happen very often here, just every 16 years. That may be because of that, says Robert Sonntag.

---------------

The Finnish police officer at the end is BS the reporter, the Finns nuts people care more about hockey than the crazy dudes in Sweden, its dangerous to go to the Finnish side and mock them when Sweden wins.

I had a friend who had an orange Volvo 244 that he kept in running condition just so that we could use it and go over to Finland if Sweden won gold. They finns were standing on the roofs and throwing bricks at us.

One comment is also necessary in relation to that article, it says that several thousand Finns went to Haparanda to celebrate and mock the Swedes. That is a city with a population of 10k...