The Salary Cap, The Next Wave of Extensions, 2020-21 and Beyond...

PALE PWNR

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Jul 10, 2010
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Now that TK and Provorov have signed, let's take a look at what our cap situation looks like moving forward beyond the 19-20 season.

Currently the Flyers are using $80,332,579 in cap space against the $81,500,000 Upper Limit according to Philadelphia Flyers - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps.

Next season they have a projected cap hit of 68,598,690 on the books.

Notable UFA's following 19-20:
Justin Braun (3,800,000)
Brian Elliott (2,000,000)
Tyler Pitlick (1,000,000)
Alex Lyon (750,000)

Notable RFA's:
Nolan Patrick (925,000)
Oskar Lindblom (925,000)
Robert Haag (1,150,000)
Phillipe Myers (678,889)
Mikhail Vorobyov (784,167)
Nicolas Aube-Kubel (700,000)
Mark Friedman (749,167)
Reese Wilcox (675,000)

Radko Gudas' Salary Retention will be gone, however we will still have Macdonald and Schlemko's buyouts on the books for next season only. (2,516,667) combined.

We're likely looking at just a shade under 13,000,000 dollars of cap space to work with next season with Patrick, Lindblom, and Myers all needing new contracts, and potentially Haag as well although I think they may trade him or let him walk rather than pay him next season. I think they also let Braun, Pitlick and Elliott walk as well, they will need the cap flexibility moving forward. I just don't see them offering extensions to Braun or Elliott especially. Pitlick may be a guy they like that they extend at around the number hes at now but we'll see.

Numbers for the 3 RFA's
Nolan Patrick right now is a 10-15 Goal, 30-35 Point player with limited Power Play Production. When looking for comparables I found Kevin Fiala and Sam Bennett to be sort of close. Both signed 2 year bridge deals following their ELC's Bennett at 2.55 per and Fiala at a Flat 3. Barring a significant up tick in production for Patrick I would expect him to sign a bridge deal as well likely right around 3 million per.

As for Lindblom it was a lot more difficult finding direct comparables. I believe Colin White and Alex Iafallo work somewhat to project a middle ground on what to expect numbers wise for Oskars next contract. AI signed a 2 year deal at 2.425 per and White signed a 6 year deal at 4.75 per. I don't think Oskar has any chance of securing himself a contract close to 5 million per year but I think it's reasonable to assume that he could be anywhere from around 2.75-3.5 million depending on term.

Myers contract is a lot tougher to project. He has a ton of upside as well all know and looks poised for a breakout year. But he doesn't have much to go off of right now as far as finding a comparable contract to look at. Undrafted, with 1st round talent needing a contract after 1 (hopefully) full year and a 20 game look the year prior it will be difficult to assess. A bridge deal is almost certain, but how much? Travis Sanheim was in a similar situation. It's very likely we see a similar deal with Myers around 2.75-3.25

-----------------------

Now thats all well and good and let's say we commit 9.5 million to those kids, leaving around 3.5 million to sign or promote a backup goalie, and sign or promote a defensemen to replace presumably Braun/Hagg.

We'd have to keep in mind that the following year 21-22, we have Hart, Sanheim, Sandstrom, Rubstov, and Morin to sign as RFA's. Michael Raffl, Scott Laughton, and Matt Niskanen are UFAs and we also clear MacDonald and Schlemko's buyouts. And we have the potential to lose someone via Expansion draft which will be important considering the next year will be... difficult to say the least.

In 22-23 we have Frost, Farabee, Ratcliffe, Zamula, Couturier and Giroux

Long story short. We have a lot of negotiations with our RFAs coming in the next couple of years. Its going to be interesting to say the least to watch as it unfolds.
 

captainpaxil

Registered User
Dec 2, 2008
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Cap space had zero points last year. Flexibility is a good thing to have but it has tp be utilized eventually. Theres alot of potential in this organization but im not going to worry about fitting guys in on deals they haven't earned yet
 

Curufinwe

Registered User
Feb 28, 2013
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Next year will be tight unless they can move someone like JVR.

20-21 Flyers with Hart and Sandstrom as goalies - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES
q2.svg
BONUSESCAP SPACE
22$83,000,000$82,179,523$0$665,000$820,477
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Giroux-Couturier-Konecny
JVR-Hayes-Voracek
Frost-Patrick(3)-Lindblom(3.5)
Farabee-Laughton-Raffl
Vorobyev(0.75)

Provorov-Niskanen
Ghost-Sanheim
Morin-Myers(3)
Friedman(0.75)


Hart
Sandstrom
 
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prototypical4thliner

Registered User
Jan 12, 2017
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Next year will be tight unless they can move someone like JVR.

20-21 Flyers with Hart and Sandstrom as goalies - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES
q2.svg
BONUSESCAP SPACE
22$83,000,000$82,179,523$0$665,000$820,477
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Giroux-Couturier-Konecny
JVR-Hayes-Voracek
Frost-Patrick(3)-Lindblom(3.5)
Farabee-Laughton-Raffl
Vorobyev(0.75)

Provorov-Niskanen
Ghost-Sanheim
Morin-Myers(3)
Friedman(0.75)


Hart
Sandstrom
They do have some options, which is nice. We should have some more ELCs knocking on the door so raffl and/or Laughton could be moved. JVR and, as a last resort, voracek could also be moved at fletchers discretion.
 
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Curufinwe

Registered User
Feb 28, 2013
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TBH, I thought Fletcher was going to insist on a bridge for TK to make the cap easier to deal with this year and next, but he didn't.
 
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dragonoffrost

It'll be a cold day...
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Feb 15, 2019
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Next year will be tight unless they can move someone like JVR.

20-21 Flyers with Hart and Sandstrom as goalies - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES
q2.svg
BONUSESCAP SPACE
22$83,000,000$82,179,523$0$665,000$820,477
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Giroux-Couturier-Konecny
JVR-Hayes-Voracek
Frost-Patrick(3)-Lindblom(3.5)
Farabee-Laughton-Raffl
Vorobyev(0.75)

Provorov-Niskanen
Ghost-Sanheim
Morin-Myers(3)
Friedman(0.75)


Hart
Sandstrom

Listening to Sirius NHLRadio they said the average cap increase during this CBA has been 3-5 so maybe your cap estimate of 83 Million may be a little low.
 
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landsbergfan

Registered User
Jun 20, 2018
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Listening to Sirius NHLRadio they said the average cap increase during this CBA has been 3-5 so maybe your cap estimate of 83 Million may be a little low.
it went up 2.5% this year so maybe it takes a bigger jump next year. Another 2.5% is 83.5 million and 5% is 85.5 million

should see a huge bump in revenue from their latest ad campagin
scbr30hx0tk31.jpg
 
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Curufinwe

Registered User
Feb 28, 2013
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Listening to Sirius NHLRadio they said the average cap increase during this CBA has been 3-5 so maybe your cap estimate of 83 Million may be a little low.

31 Thoughts: Could short-term deals break RFA stalemates? - Sportsnet.ca

The NHL and NHLPA did the expected last weekend, announcing a ceiling of $81.5 million — $1.5 million below mid-season projections. As the league and players quietly work towards extending/renegotiating the CBA, word was the majority of players would vote for a minimal increase to the cap. (Players can bump it up to five per cent. They chose 0.5 per cent.) A similar maneuver is expected for 2020-21. The hope of a new US television deal means a more significant rise for 2021-22.
 
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Flyer lurker

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Feb 16, 2019
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If you project Farabee, Frost, Rubesov all on the team in 20-21, then we will have to decide whether to make small trades (Rafll,Laughton) for cap space or a bigger trade in JVR. Its a bit on the snug side but not impossible.
 
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Rebels57

Former Flyers fan
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Sep 28, 2014
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Nice breakdown OP. I don't think we have anything to worry about. We are in a pretty good spot. We don't need to be active in the UFA market either which is nice. We just have to extend our own players and shift around some of the depth pieces.

As @Appleyard said, we have no real cap concerns until 2022 but that is well after the new TV deal kicks in and likely produces a significant increase in the salary cap. It's also after the expansion draft which COULD see a higher price player claimed.
 
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