The Ryan O’Reilly Discussion Quarantine Zone [All ROR Posts Here] (Mod Notes OP)

[Buffaloed]

Less TOPS commercials?

Hey Tuna Boy, is that you?

 

[Fearnot]

When we signed Ryan in 2015 if you told me then "he'd eventually have his name on a Stanley Cup but the Sabres will finish 5th from last place that same year." I'd probably believe you.

 

[Baccus]

Thats just a lazy and simplistic response.

ROR was on the block. Why?
There seemed to be relatively little interest in him league wide. Why?
The bonus payment became a de facto deadline. Why?

I don’t think we know the answers to those questions and I think we need to to better understand the trade. I can hold these thoughts while also accepting the return sucked.

But did Botts, and Botts alone, put himself in this straight jacket where he had no suitors outside of the Blues in the days leading to the arbitrary bonus deadline? Or did others in the organization, or even ROR’s camp, contribute to get him there? I can speculate about it but I don’t really know.

Oh great, we've moved on to the X-Files version of the trade and its surrounding circumstance.

- on the Block - Maybe? random trade deadline reports on everybody playing for a last place team is hardly a shocking result.
- little interest league wide - how do you know? ROR and his price level, especially if Botts wanted a quantity over quality return would be pretty difficult for a playoff team to swallow.
- bonus payment deadline - Botts and/or the Pegulas are short sighted and thin skinned at best, stupid at worst.

I can hold the thoughts that the process to trade ROR appears very bad, the artificial deadline was extremely bad, the trade was f***ing terrible and everybody involved in it may be an actual idiot.

Was Botts alone in this? Who knows, but I don't give him any benefit of the doubt if it was the owners pushing for it, because part of his job as GM is to talk ownership out of bad hockey decisions.

Much seems to circle (the drain) around the bonus due date. Maybe the question is why would Botts/Pegulas/Space Aliens take something (the bonus contract structure) that is financial tool under the CBA that can lead to better assets in a trade for a theoretically willing to spend money organization and turn it into a self imposed lesser return shitfest deadline?

Also for the person or two floating abstract ROR "issues" with ownership/party life/whatever you want to continually hint at as reasons for the trade, why did it not seem to particularly affect his Buffalo on-ice performance or his St. Louis on-ice performance? I would expect the Sabres pay people to perform on the ice, not to live up to ownerships whatever beliefs about anything.

 

[Jamie Walker]

I still "believe in Botts" (copyright protected) but this trade turns out as one of the worst in the history of the Sabres as of right now. A top 2 centre for the team competing for the Stanley cup, (something we now desperately need) for the second to last, or complete last pick in the draft, Tage Thompson, and a salary dump. hopefully we grab a perennial all-star with that pick. (Knight?)

 

[Washed Up 29YearOld]

The worst trade in Sabres history by far and when you consider we took 2 net negative cap dumps, basically 2 second round picks, and a borderline bust for a legit top 10 center, it may be the worst trade in the past decade. (worse than Hall for Larsson)

You would want to think the GM of all people would be sane and rational enough to not make this deal... It's like the reflex not to breathe under water, or the instinctual inability to drive into oncoming traffic... Don't make this trade.

No. Botts said yes.

Do you trust this man to lead the Sabres to the cup?


PS: hope you're glad that you didn't have to pay the bonus, Terry.


....& The only way this trade can remotely redeem itself is if Thompson is a 35-35 player. Not betting my house on it.

 

[joshjull]

Oh great, we've moved on to the X-Files version of the trade and its surrounding circumstance.

- on the Block - Maybe? random trade deadline reports on everybody playing for a last place team is hardly a shocking result.
- little interest league wide - how do you know? ROR and his price level, especially if Botts wanted a quantity over quality return would be pretty difficult for a playoff team to swallow.
- bonus payment deadline - Botts and/or the Pegulas are short sighted and thin skinned at best, stupid at worst.

I can hold the thoughts that the process to trade ROR appears very bad, the artificial deadline was extremely bad, the trade was ****ing terrible and everybody involved in it may be an actual idiot.

-We knew months before the trade the specific ask for ROR. Kind of hard to imagine that materialized out of thin air and reporters got lucky. The far more likely scenario is he was being shopped or at the very least we were listening to offers. Either way the idea of moving on from him was in the works.

- How do I know there was little interest? Because in the week or so leading up to the trade there were only two teams seriously linked to talks (Habs/Blues) and in the final days just one (Blues). Being a playoff team isn't relevant in the offseason nor would the salary cap matter as much. So any team that wanted him could have gotten involved. Yet they didn't.

Was Botts alone in this? Who knows, but I don't give him any benefit of the doubt if it was the owners pushing for it, because part of his job as GM is to talk ownership out of bad hockey decisions.​

No, part of his job is to lay out the case for why something is a bad idea. But ultimately the GM has no control over the situation, the owner does. Its just piling on and unfair to blame the GM for something out of his control.

Owners don't "push" for things they dictate what they want. They're the owners. "Pushing for it" implies they have to make the case for their ideas because they don't have the power they do. The reality is they can do whatever they want. That's any owner not just the Pegulas

***DISCLAIMER I have no idea what role, if any, the Pegulas played in this trade. Just talking about about the general power dynamic with teams.***

Much seems to circle (the drain) around the bonus due date. Maybe the question is why would Botts/Pegulas/Space Aliens take something (the bonus contract structure) that is financial tool under the CBA that can lead to better assets in a trade for a theoretically willing to spend money organization and turn it into a self imposed lesser return ****fest deadline?

The bonus deadline seems to be symbolic of the idea they wanted to move on from ROR more than anything. I'm not sure how much more value they would have gotten had they waited until after paying the bonus to be honest. I do know it didn't help Botts with the Blues since they had no issue with paying the bonus and knew we were bluffing. Ultimately we got zero leverage with the Blues from that deadline..

 

[Der Jaeger]

Trade ROR, and Eichel grows out his hair. Coincidence? I say nay. ROR's beard growth was holding back Eichel's fro. It had to be one or the other. Botterill was left with no other choice than to move ROR's beard so the future of the franchise could expand his follicles.

 

[Fezzy126]

If anyone is bored waiting for the draft and free agency to start (which I was very much so last night), I highly highly recommend drinking a half dozen beers and reading this thread in Robert Stack's voice with the theme music from Unsolved Mysteries playing in the background.

(side note: your family will probably think you're insane if you do it out loud though)

 

[Baccus]

-We knew months before the trade the specific ask for ROR. Kind of hard to imagine that materialized out of thin air and reporters got lucky. The far more likely scenario is he was being shopped or at the very least we were listening to offers. Either way the idea of moving on from him was in the works.

- How do I know there was little interest? Because in the week or so leading up to the trade there were only two teams seriously linked to talks (Habs/Blues) and in the final days just one (Blues). Being a playoff team isn't relevant in the offseason nor would the salary cap matter as much. So any team that wanted him could have gotten involved. Yet they didn't.

--- Everybody on the Blues was supposedly "available" when they were at the bottom of the league. It's like saying if you go out when it's raining you might get wet. The Sabres were heading towards last place, Botts should have had feelers out on the entire team.

If you tell me a random star hockey player is available and ask what I think the team wants for them, I will literally spit out that it's probably an NHL Player, a good prospect and a draft pick. It's the same every time, because that's the general ask.

--- Again, just because you only heard rumors from teams x & y does not mean they were the only interest. One of the more annoying aspects of the whole thing from the trade deadline rumors, to the draft day rumors is that no deal happened at either of those times. You know, those two time periods where GM's often pay more to acquire talent for either a playoff run, or at the draft when there's the immediate draft capital available, and there's less/no cap issues. Instead they waited until after those periods until a self imposed deadline that every other team clearly saw through.

No, part of his job is to lay out the case for why something is a bad idea. But ultimately the GM has no control over the situation, the owner does. Its just piling on and unfair to blame the GM for something out of his control.

Owners don't "push" for things they dictate what they want. They're the owners. "Pushing for it" implies they have to make the case for their ideas because they don't have the power they do. The reality is they can do whatever they want. That's any owner not just the Pegulas

***DISCLAIMER I have no idea what role, if any, the Pegulas played in this trade. Just talking about about the general power dynamic with teams.***

--- We'll just have to disagree most likely. But it is definitely part of his job to make the absolute best hockey decisions for the franchise in my opinion, and if that means you have to manage the owners wishes that is part of it. Witness Ottawa. If the Pegulas are just walking into the office one day and handing down a dictate to trade whichever player they find annoying that week, then frankly we're all totally screwed as fans. And Botts still gets the blame for the trade, he's the GM. He makes the trade. Yes there are factors that influence him out of his control but he still gets the blame, that's what he's there for. If as a rookie GM he didn't negotiate any level of hockey autonomy, that's on him and it's still his fault.

The bonus deadline seems to be symbolic of the idea they wanted to move on from ROR more than anything. I'm not sure how much more value they would have gotten had they waited until after paying the bonus to be honest. I do know it didn't help Botts with the Blues since they had no issue with paying the bonus and knew we were bluffing. Ultimately we got zero leverage with the Blues from that deadline..

--- The bonus situation is symbolic of the lack of consistent and affective process in the entire Sabres organization. Is this a cap team that will spend money to gain whatever advantage they can? Or do we just have nice locker rooms? Are the players supported or do we have a revolving door of players that have "issues" and succeed in other organizations where they have support?

 

[Montag DP]

The worst trade in Sabres history by far

You can't possibly be serious with this.

 

[Jame]

-We knew months before the trade the specific ask for ROR. Kind of hard to imagine that materialized out of thin air and reporters got lucky. The far more likely scenario is he was being shopped or at the very least we were listening to offers. Either way the idea of moving on from him was in the works.

- How do I know there was little interest? Because in the week or so leading up to the trade there were only two teams seriously linked to talks (Habs/Blues) and in the final days just one (Blues). Being a playoff team isn't relevant in the offseason nor would the salary cap matter as much. So any team that wanted him could have gotten involved. Yet they didn't.

the absence of information is NOT confirmation of your belief.

Lebrun reported on Carolina, Montreal, Philly, NYI, and St Louis all being involved in trade talks for ROR at the draft.

LeBrun: The candidates for a Ryan O'Reilly trade

Lebrun: "From making some calls around the league, here are some teams that I’m told have shown interest in the 27-year-old O’Reilly:"

No, part of his job is to lay out the case for why something is a bad idea. But ultimately the GM has no control over the situation, the owner does. Its just piling on and unfair to blame the GM for something out of his control.

Owners don't "push" for things they dictate what they want. They're the owners. "Pushing for it" implies they have to make the case for their ideas because they don't have the power they do. The reality is they can do whatever they want. That's any owner not just the Pegulas

***DISCLAIMER I have no idea what role, if any, the Pegulas played in this trade. Just talking about about the general power dynamic with teams.***

Pierre Dorion agrees.

The bonus deadline seems to be symbolic of the idea they wanted to move on from ROR more than anything. I'm not sure how much more value they would have gotten had they waited until after paying the bonus to be honest. I do know it didn't help Botts with the Blues since they had no issue with paying the bonus and knew we were bluffing. Ultimately we got zero leverage with the Blues from that deadline..

What if we stop hypothesizing excuses for Botts, and just recognize that he's bad at his job, and has been from the beginning. The ROR trade actually makes perfect sense in this context, and only this context.

Carolina Hurricanes: No way the Hurricanes trade the No. 2 overall pick in an O’Reilly deal, so that’s off the table, but Carolina absolutely has had talks with the Sabres about the center. There are certainly some young players on the Carolina roster that would fit the mold of what the Sabres are looking for. Could they try for defenseman Noah Hanifin (RFA) or forward Elias Lindhom (RFA) if the Hurricanes believe they can’t sign one of them? Or do the Sabres dig deeper in Carolina’s prospect pool? One thing’s for sure, if talks evolve more meaningfully between these two teams on O’Reilly, budget-conscious Carolina would definitely want the Sabres to pick up that $7.5 million signing bonus, so any trade would have to wait until July 2, I think.

Montreal Canadiens: Well, duh. Given that Tavares seems like a long shot for the center-starved Habs, O’Reilly makes so much sense. And believe me, they’ve talked to Buffalo. Pending UFA Paul Stastny would also make sense for them. Neither O’Reilly nor Stastny are No. 1 centers in my book, but both are quality No. 2s and frankly, the Canadiens can use any upgrade at that position, period. Here’s where it gets tricky. My belief is that the Sabres would want Montreal’s No. 3 overall pick in Friday night’s first round as part of the deal for O’Reilly. Pretty sure that’s not something Canadiens GM Marc Bergevin would want to do. He does have four second-round picks, however. Can he put together a package for O’Reilly that involves other assets that the Sabres could live with? Montreal also has a ton of cap space. Could Bergevin use that as a tool in this deal, perhaps offer to take Matt Moulson and the remaining $3 million in salary ($5 million cap hit) off the Sabres’ books? Not to mention be willing to pay O’Reilly’s July 1 signing bonus? I would note here that the Sabres aren’t making Moulson any kind of stipulation, they have deep pockets. I think the priority for Sabres GM Jason Botterill, with ownership backing, is getting the best possible return for O’Reilly and not worry about the money. Still, if you’re Bergevin, I would throw that carrot out there.

What if there was no mandate to trade by the deadline. What makes us think Pegula changed his "drill another well" standard? What if.... Botts just thought he was getting an incredible deal with St Louis? Why is any explanation other than this given any credibility?

Philadelphia Flyers: The Flyers have two first-round picks Friday, 14 overall (from the Blues) and 19 overall (their own). That could be part of a deal, or one of the picks anyway, to entice the Sabres, but I suspect what really has Buffalo intrigued by Philly is their very deep pool of young players throughout their organization. No surprise that Flyers GM Ron Hextall might be looking at O’Reilly, he would fit the type of guy that organization wants.
And again, it’s worth pointing out that, if nobody steps up to the level the Sabres feel is worth a trade for O’Reilly, Buffalo is fine having him at training camp. There’s no gun to their head on this one. He’s available but the Sabres aren’t desperate to trade him.

Botts got the deal he wanted

St. Louis Blues: Makes sense that the Blues would have at least inquired on O’Reilly — and I believe they have — in order to fill the spot Stastny’s late-season trade created. What I’m hearing is that Blues GM Doug Armstrong is willing to move the first-round pick he got from Winnipeg for Stastny, which sits at No. 29 overall. But the Sabres would need more than that, obviously. The Blues have some enticing prospects. There’s potential here for a deal. Now, no question the Blues’ No. 1 target would be pending UFA center Tavares, but again, who knows if he indeed hits the market or if the Blues can beat out the massive competition. So it makes sense to be looking at other options, and O’Reilly is a good one.

There was competition for ROR, and Botts CHOSE the shitty St Louis package over other offers.

He's terrible.

 

[Jame]

Is Mckenzie the only accepted source? Ok



He said Montreal and St Louis were AMONG the teams interested at the draft... and he reported that if ROR wasn't traded before the bonus, they would keep him.... so keeping him was an option.

Botts CHOSE the St Louis deal.

 

[Sabre Dance]

the absence of information is NOT confirmation of your belief.

Lebrun reported on Carolina, Montreal, Philly, NYI, and St Louis all being involved in trade talks for ROR at the draft.

LeBrun: The candidates for a Ryan O'Reilly trade





Pierre Dorion agrees.



What if we stop hypothesizing excuses for Botts, and just recognize that he's bad at his job, and has been from the beginning. The ROR trade actually makes perfect sense in this context, and only this context.





What if there was no mandate to trade by the deadline. What makes us think Pegula changed his "drill another well" standard? What if.... Botts just thought he was getting an incredible deal with St Louis? Why is any explanation other than this given any credibility?



Botts got the deal he wanted



There was competition for ROR, and Botts CHOSE the ****ty St Louis package over other offers.

He's terrible.

Bob McKenzie called O'Reilly a 2 or 3 C on a good team right before the trade.

Im positive we get a lot more if the bonus wasn't a factor.

 

[Sabre Dance]

Is Mckenzie the only accepted source? Ok



He said Montreal and St Louis were AMONG the teams interested at the draft... and he reported that if ROR wasn't traded before the bonus, they would keep him.... so keeping him was an option.

Botts CHOSE the St Louis deal.

And why do you think that was?

 

[Jame]

Bob McKenzie called O'Reilly a 2 or 3 C on a good team right before the trade.

Im positive we get a lot more if the bonus wasn't a factor.

I'm less inclined to believe that Botts could've gotten a better return... because it's still Botts, and he's shown no skill in negotiating trades.

Botts thought Berglund and Sobotka were of actual value.... pre or post bonus.... Botts still sucks at evaluating talent
Botts thought Tage was a top prospect.... pre or post bonus... Botts still sucks at evaluating talent
Botts allowed a 1st round condition on the trade... pre or post bonus... Botts still sucks at trade negotiations

And why do you think that was?

Because he's terrible at talent evaluation

 

[Sabre Dance]

I'm less inclined to believe that Botts could've gotten a better return... because it's still Botts, and he's shown no skill in negotiating trades.

Botts thought Berglund and Sobotka were of actual value.... pre or post bonus.... Botts still sucks at evaluating talent
Botts thought Tage was a top prospect.... pre or post bonus... Botts still sucks at evaluating talent
Botts allowed a 1st round condition on the trade... pre or post bonus... Botts still sucks at trade negotiations



Because he's terrible at talent evaluation

Still way too early to say Botts is all of those things, but obviously its not looking good for him.

 

[Chainshot]

Still way too early to say Botts is all of those things, but obviously its not looking good for him.

It's been two years. How is it still too early?

 

[Sabre Dance]

It's been two years. How is it still too early?

Because I still believe he was trying to rebuild and didn't believe the roster was close to competing.

There was a lack of urgency.

 

[sabremike]

Because I still believe he was trying to rebuild and didn't believe the roster was close to competing.

There was a lack of urgency.

If it takes you more than two years to make a team competitive in a league that is rigged so that everyone is competitive then you suck as a GM and you deserve to be sacked.

 

[Chainshot]

Because I still believe he was trying to rebuild and didn't believe the roster was close to competing.

There was a lack of urgency.

Well, we saw what a lack of urgency begat. He'd best get urgent and start winning some deals. There is no going back on this one, but we can hope he has learned something from it and improves his results.

If he doesn't start to make improvements, we'll be talking about putting up the "Next GM Candidates" thread sometime around the end of March of next season.

It still blows my mind that he took cap dumps, guys rumored to be available for nearly nothing in return as key parts of the deal. It's been almost a year, it still makes me laugh.

 

[Fezzy126]

If it takes you more than two years to make a team competitive in a league that is rigged so that everyone is competitive then you suck as a GM and you deserve to be sacked.

Most of the current playoff teams were built and then subsequently tweaked over the course of 5-10 years before becoming consistent winners. I can't think of a single example of team that went from last place to consistent winner in only 2 years.

 

[sabremike]

Most of the current playoff teams were built and then subsequently tweaked over the course of 5-10 years before becoming consistent winners. I can't think of a single example of team that went from last place to consistent winner in only 2 years.

We're not talking have a team win the cup 3 years in a row. I said "Competitive", which would mean playing actual meaningful games in mid late March instead of the season being over in early February.

 

[Sabre Dance]

If it takes you more than two years to make a team competitive in a league that is rigged so that everyone is competitive then you suck as a GM and you deserve to be sacked.

It's on ownership. This is 2 straight GMs that wasted years.

 

[Jame]

Most of the current playoff teams were built and then subsequently tweaked over the course of 5-10 years before becoming consistent winners. I can't think of a single example of team that went from last place to consistent winner in only 2 years.

We weren't a last place team, we were an 80 point team whose best player was 20....

Botts took us to last place, he didn't take over last place....

 

[Der Jaeger]

We weren't a last place team, we were an 80 point team whose best player was 20....

Botts took us to last place, he didn't take over last place....

Which would've been fine, since it landed the team Dahlin. If he doesn't trade ROR, nearly every other mistake is forgivable and can be chalked up to a new GM.

Imagine this roster:

Skinner - Eichel - Pominville
Sheary - ROR - Reinhart
Rodrigues - Mittelstadt - O'Regan
Girgensons - Larsson - Okposo
x Wilson

Dahlin - Montour
Pilut - Ristolainen
McCabe - Nelson
x Scandella, Bogosian, Hunwick

Hutton, Ullmark

O'Regan is an RFA instead of Group 6 UFA, Pominville and Moulson off the books, Housley gone, Krueger in, probably a better draft pick (10 OA?), with a chance to bring in another top end talent.

Much better positioned for a run.