The Rumors and Speculation Thread #6

[dingbathero]

We don't need that Buffoon.

Suck it peenewf. Haha.

 

[Coppy]

You're forgetting Giroux and Couturier up for new deals too (specifically Giroux).

I didn't forget, no. Mez/Timonen/Giroux/Read/Gervais/Bourdon off creates roughly 16.5 mill in cap space. Cap likely goes up some about a million or so. Thats roughly 18 million to resign 4 guys.

Giroux 7.5-8
Read 3-3.5
Schenn 3.5
Couts 2

Pretty easily doable. Not saying Read will definitely resign, but it certainly isn't an Umberger situation.

 

[moosehead81]

I think Flyers missed the boat on Bernier; don't know what was offered but obviously not Read cause LA would have taken that deal I believe. Bernier and Mason would have been be a good duplicate punch. And the Bryzgalov thing would have been finally settled.

 

[ILoveStephanieBrown]

I think Flyers missed the boat on Bernier; don't know what was offered but obviously not Read cause LA would have taken that deal I believe. Bernier and Mason would have been be a good duplicate punch. And the Bryzgalov thing would have been finally settled.

According to Pierre Lebrun, they did offer Read.

 

[Random Forest]

I'm not so sure LA likes Read any more than Frattin.

Frattin's a pretty good young player. He put up 60 points in 44 games for UND in 2010-11. Read put up 35 points in 37 games comparatively that same year.

Frattin's also an RFA when his deal is up, Read is not.

Read has a bigger reputation league wide simply because he was an undrafted UFA and the ensuing "sweepstakes" after he graduated. That does quite a bit for Read's hype machine. Frattin's been Leafs property since he was drafted.

Granted, Read backed it up with his play since signing with the Flyers, but if Frattin never breaks 24 goals and 47 points in his career, I'd be pretty surprised. They're quite even in terms of value. Read is much safer, but Frattin seems to have more potential as a scorer.

I don't think it's unlikely that LA simply valued Frattin more than Read. Not to mention saving $500k against the cap. That goes a long way.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

I didn't forget, no. Mez/Timonen/Giroux/Read/Gervais/Bourdon off creates roughly 16.5 mill in cap space. Cap likely goes up some about a million or so. Thats roughly 18 million to resign 4 guys.

Giroux 7.5-8
Read 3-3.5
Schenn 3.5
Couts 2

Pretty easily doable. Not saying Read will definitely resign, but it certainly isn't an Umberger situation.

Why would them two be coming off? You're adding on to their salaries which should be in millions for a raise.

With Timonen ($6M), Mez ($4M), Gervais ($825K), & Bourdon ($612.5K). That's $11,437,500M coming off total between those four.

You also have to factor Steve Mason in. He's a bit of wildcard right now that could go either way but if he has a good season he'll be looking for a raise too.

 

[FlyingPhilly]

Hopefully we stay away. He's not worth what you probably have to give up. I think him & Luke Schenn had some type of issue with each other in Toronto too and then there's Hartnell lol.

Hartnell for Phaneuf.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

I didn't forget, no. Mez/Timonen/Giroux/Read/Gervais/Bourdon off creates roughly 16.5 mill in cap space. Cap likely goes up some about a million or so. Thats roughly 18 million to resign 4 guys.

Giroux 7.5-8
Read 3-3.5
Schenn 3.5
Couts 2

Pretty easily doable. Not saying Read will definitely resign, but it certainly isn't an Umberger situation.

Read could easily get more that. I think that is a good ballpark, but if he tops 50 points this season I think that number goes more to $4-$4.5 (unless he simply wants to stay in Philly and takes a discount). If he puts up 50+ points he may be one of the most sought after UFAs the next offseason outside of the obvious big name guys (should they make it).

 

[achdumeingute]

Frattin's a pretty good young player.

26 during the upcoming season with one season played is not young.

 

[Random Forest]

26 during the upcoming season with one season played is not young.

For a college player, yes it is.

 

[Stizzle]

Read has a bigger reputation league wide simply because he was an undrafted UFA and the ensuing "sweepstakes" after he graduated. That does quite a bit for Read's hype machine. Frattin's been Leafs property since he was drafted.

You are imagining things. No such sweepstakes occured like Justin Schultz, DeKeyser, etc. He was pretty under the radar and signed with not much buzz.

 

[Rolex]

I read somewhere that Toronto also flipped $500K to LA in the deal.

 

[Prongo]

Holmgren has held off pretty well so far this offseason. I still think Matt read will be the better of two players between fratin and him, but like its been said frattin is under control at lower expense for some time.

Now it's very reassuring that homer isn't just looking to make deals like people sometime suspect around here. He is desperately trying to improve this team, but not going to over pay for any players services. I'm sure we have something in the works as well that nobody is sure of. Most of the Ryan talked has fizzled of late and bernier is a leaf now. D leed also keeps saying he expects "significant moves" this off season, I suspect he is quoting a source there. We still have plenty of time though. One very reassuring thing is that couts name was brought up and homer said he is not available. So he knows what he has in couts, and probably won't trade him unless its for a stud

 

[Prongo]

Holmgren has held off pretty well so far this offseason. I still think Matt read will be the better of two players between fratin and him, but like its been said frattin is under control at lower expense for some time.

Now it's very reassuring that homer isn't just looking to make deals like people sometime suspect around here. He is desperately trying to improve this team, but not going to over pay for any players services. I'm sure we have something in the works as well that nobody is sure of. Most of the Ryan talked has fizzled of late and bernier is a leaf now. D leed also keeps saying he expects "significant moves" this off season, I suspect he is quoting a source there. We still have plenty of time though. One very reassuring thing is that couts name was brought up and homer said he is not available. So he knows what he has in couts, and probably won't trade him unless its for a stud

 

[GKJ]

For a college player, yes it is.

Just because he's a college player, doesn't make him younger. 26 is generally the end of your prime.

 

[Random Forest]

You are imagining things. No such sweepstakes occured like Justin Schultz, DeKeyser, etc. He was pretty under the radar and signed with not much buzz.

Not on the same level as Schultz or DeKeyser, but if I remember correctly, Read attended other teams' camps and fielded other offers. That enlarges his profile. Frattin has always been a Leaf, and because of that, nobody followed him outside of that fan base.

Just because he's a college player, doesn't make him younger. 26 is generally the end of your prime.

So Frattin's prime is coming to an end?

26 for a player who developed late and spent all four years in college is still young, yes. That means he developed slower and had much less professional experience by that age.

He still has room to grow as a player. 26 is generally the end of your prime for young phenoms who jump into the league around 20 years old. Not so for guys who take the long road.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Not on the same level as Schultz or DeKeyser, but if I remember correctly, Read attended other teams' camps and fielded other offers. That enlarges his profile. Frattin has always been a Leaf, and because of that, nobody followed him outside of that fan base.

On these boards that increases your value/importance especially if you're a spare part.

 

[ahthorne]

Read >>> Frattin in terms of the player they are. Read does it all and is probably one of the best value contracts in the league right now. He just played for Canada, too.

Here's hoping for Ray Emery.

 

[GKJ]

So Frattin's prime is coming to an end?

26 for a player who developed late and spent all four years in college is still young, yes. That means he developed slower and had much less professional experience by that age.

He still has room to grow as a player. 26 is generally the end of your prime for young phenoms who jump into the league around 20 years old. Not so for guys who take the long road.

Yes.

He developed slower because he wasn't that great. He'll probably be a good 7th/8th forward for LA. That's generally the long-term ceiling.

 

[Random Forest]

Yes.

He developed slower because he wasn't that great. He'll probably be a good 7th/8th forward for LA. That's generally the long-term ceiling.

Take a look at the career trajectory for a guy like Matt Moulson. Not saying Frattin will ever become that (nor will he be in a similar situation to succeed), but it's not fair to proclaim that his prime is over.

All players develop differently, but the guys who take the college route tend to develop slowest. Frattin was a good college player, and he has potential.

26 is the end of the prime years for players who developed quickly, were drafted high at 18 years old, and entered the NHL around 20. A couple years of development, followed by the "prime years", then a drop in performance around 26-27.

But for other players who developed later, the prime years occur later (shocker). Guys like Read, Moulson, Teddy Purcell, etc. They were nothing at age 18, and they took the long route. The prime for those guys is from about 26-29.

I'm not saying Frattin will be a great (or even good) player. I'm just saying the potential is there, and it's unfair to say he's done developing because he's 25.

 

[Coppy]

Why would them two be coming off? You're adding on to their salaries which should be in millions for a raise.

With Timonen ($6M), Mez ($4M), Gervais ($825K), & Bourdon ($612.5K). That's $11,437,500M coming off total between those four.

It all equals the same answer, just with different numbers. I took the total salary coming off the books, and then estimated the total that would be going back on. Your taking the players we won't resign, and then estimating the raises the of the players we will.

So

Giroux 7.5-8
Read 3-3.5
Schenn 3.5
Couts 2

Or

Giroux 3.75-4.25
Read 2.1-2.6
Schenn .4
Couts .625

Either way, is the same thing.

You also have to factor Steve Mason in. He's a bit of wildcard right now that could go either way but if he has a good season he'll be looking for a raise too.

Yeah, its possible Mason gets a big raise if he performs well. But if that happens, then there is really no way Bryz would still be on this team after. He either gets bought out this year or next. That's another 5.6 off the books.

Read could easily get more that. I think that is a good ballpark, but if he tops 50 points this season I think that number goes more to $4-$4.5 (unless he simply wants to stay in Philly and takes a discount). If he puts up 50+ points he may be one of the most sought after UFAs the next offseason outside of the obvious big name guys (should they make it).

He could get more than that. Though I think if he does resign here, Homer would get the deal done before during the season. If that happens, his contract would likely be based more off what he'd done in past seasons versus what he was doing that season.

I'd have to do more precise math, but the Flyers should still be able to fit Read in at 4.5. If not, you can always deal someone like Talbot to make space. Really, it depends on what the cap will be after next season. Or they can let him walk. I like Read, but him at anything more than 4.5 is really an over-payment.

 

[GKJ]

Take a look at the career trajectory for a guy like Matt Moulson. Not saying Frattin will ever become that (nor will he be in a similar situation to succeed), but it's not fair to proclaim that his prime is over.

All players develop differently, but the guys who take the college route tend to develop slowest. Frattin was a good college player, and he has potential.

26 is the end of the prime years for players who developed quickly, were drafted high at 18 years old, and entered the NHL around 20. A couple years of development, followed by the "prime years", then a drop in performance around 26-27.

But for other players who developed later, the prime years occur later (shocker). Guys like Read, Moulson, Teddy Purcell, etc. They were nothing at age 18, and they took the long route. The prime for those guys is from about 26-29.

I'm not saying Frattin will be a great (or even good) player. I'm just saying the potential is there, and it's unfair to say he's done developing because he's 25.

Purcell's most common linemate each of these past two seasons has been Steven Stamkos. Likewise Moulson with Tavares. They have produced, doing so with these phenoms. The Kings have none such, which is probably one reason why neither made it with the Kings (although they should have kept Moulson). Frattin will not have these players, nor does Matt Read play with them.

 

[Random Forest]

Purcell's most common linemate each of these past two seasons has been Steven Stamkos. Likewise Moulson with Tavares. They have produced, doing so with these phenoms. The Kings have none such, which is probably one reason why neither made it with the Kings (although they should have kept Moulson). Frattin will not have these players, nor does Matt Read play with them.

I am well aware as I pointed that out in my post. My point was not that Frattin has the same potential as these players.

My point is that Moulson, Purcell, Read, Frattin, and all similar "slow developers" hit their prime years around 26-29. Not 24-26 like the "fast developers" do.

A lot of players hit their prime years around 26-29. The only ones who peak young are the ones you break into the league early. There should be no surprise there.

I mean, are you suggesting that Frattin would have been a more effective NHL player from 23-26 than he will be from 26-29? Is that what you mean when you say his prime is over?

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Thread #7 is now open.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1452139

This is closed.