The Responsible Parties

[NDiesel]

As a whole I think it speaks to their underwater possession stats. It's not the end all be all. But if I had a nickel for every time they lost an important 3rd period faceoff with 90 second left and the opponent's goalie pulled..... I'd have a lot of nickels.

They also have given up the most 5v6 goals to an opponent with the goalie pulled this year (disclaimer: this would include goals on delayed penalties, I'm too busy as a new father to do the legwork to pull those out lol). But that's a flaw that can and should be discussed and who is at fault? Are guys underachieving at the dot? Sweeney for not addressing this after BP/DK retirement? Montgomery for not putting out two centers at the end of the game so center one can cheat the draw? Plenty to dig at just in that one area.

And while faceoffs as a stat have never been an indicator of who has won a series. They certainly have lost this team some games this year.

I do agree that they need to fix their 6 on 5 play, but at the same time allowing late goals like that is a symptom of good teams who tend to have the lead late into games.

When you look down the list teams like Pits/Wsh/Det/Ott/Chi/Stl all have 2 or less GA while 5 on 6 while at the top teams like Bos/VGK/Dal are part of the top 6 (with SJ, CBJ and MTL surprisingly sprinkled in there).

It's for sure an issue that needs to be addressed and i think a lot has to do with losing faceoffs late in the game, but I think you can take some positivity from the fact they are generally leading deep into the 3rd.

 

[DKH]

First, there’s no correlation statistically between faceoff percentage and wins. Either regular season or playoffs. So that’s really not a metric that’s important in the context of what you wrote.

Second, they’re at 51.34% High Danger chances at 5v5. So they’re above water. They’re also at 58%+ HDGF% at 5v5, which is third in the league. Last years numbers were better - shocker! But last year they were 15th in the league at CF% at 5v5 at just over 51%.

Third, regardless of numbers, we’ve seen that this team has only four (4) losses to playoff teams in regulation. Does that hold no water?

Playoff success is a different matter. Using Dom’s model at the Athletic (obviously there are others but they don’t differ all that much) only one team has a 50% chance or better to win two rounds in the East - the Hurricanes, owing to what will be the easiest playoff matchup odds wise in the entire NHL. (I would use Moneypuck, but their model hates the Panthers for some reason and gives Toronto a 5% higher chance of winning two rounds than the Panthers. Their playoff model has always been FUBAR).

Dom has the Bruins with a 55% chance of winning one round, projecting them to play the Maple Leafs, the toughest matchup in the East for a favorite. Even the Panthers are projected as only a 77% favorite in round 1 despite a ridiculously easy WC matchup. There’s an undercurrent of inevitability here that the Bruins are doomed to lose in the playoffs. And yes, that is almost certainly true. But even the best teams have only a 15% odds of winning the Cup.

View attachment 837826

Love a good metric

Great post

 

[GordonHowe]

Again it’s not the pointing out flaws that people have problems with. It’s the “assigning blame” thing? What are we assigning blame for when the team is not only exceeding all expectations, but is in first in all of hockey??? It’s just silly. If this thread was created after they were eliminated from the playoffs then sure, have at it. It would make tons of sense. This thread was created after a win that put them in first in all of hockey what is their to blame on somebody lmao

Like I said- it’s an autopsy on a living body

Again it’s not the pointing out flaws that people have problems with. It’s the “assigning blame” thing? What are we assigning blame for when the team is not only exceeding all expectations, but is in first in all of hockey??? It’s just silly. If this thread was created after they were eliminated from the playoffs then sure, have at it. It would make tons of sense. This thread was created after a win that put them in first in all of hockey what is their to blame on somebody lmao

Like I said- it’s an autopsy on a living body

That's fair.

Again, I see things as I do. It is, in the end, only my opinion.

I hope we can agree to disagree.

 

[DKH]

Time will tell, but as we’ve painfully seen, a team can be constructed for regular season success and playoff failure.

Not suggesting this is ever a conscious decision, but at the very least, the fact that Hathaway was brought in last year and Lucic and later Maroon this year does offer some credence to the fact that they feel that toughness is something this team lacks.

The question that may never be answered is how much toughness is enough?

It’s possible to lose a series where you “out tough” the other team and you can win a series where you get smacked around.

In the end, while either one of the scenarios above can happen, it’s unlikely that you can win four series where you’re the nail and not the hammer.

My biggest concern is not enough toughness in the top 9. Those guys aren’t easy to find, but it isn’t impossible and should be a priority, not only next year, but in perpetuity.

Historically teams with the best record in NHL MLB & NFL don’t win

It’s a upset when they do

Right now Bruins are a serious bet to win the President Trophy again and that sets the misfits up for failure

They are overachievers and each playoff round is basically a flip of the coin

To me the Bruins are 50 % winning round one

25% winning two rounds

12.5 winning three

And 6.25 % winning Cup

For the Bruins are chokers and they hurt me crowd

Good news 93.75 % favors you getting to whine and cry and say they are soft and Pasta is one dimensional and Ullmark sucks

Get your posts ready could be about a month away and you want to have at least a rough outline

 

[NDiesel]

Historically teams with the best record in NHL MLB & NFL don’t win

It’s a upset when they do

Right now Bruins are a serious bet to win the President Trophy again and that sets the misfits up for failure

They are overachievers and each playoff round is basically a flip of the coin

To me the Bruins are 50 % winning round one

25% winning two rounds

12.5 winning three

And 6.25 % winning Cup

For the Bruins are chokers and they hurt me crowd

Good news 93.75 % favors you getting to whine and cry and say they are soft and Pasta is one dimensional and Ullmark sucks

Get your posts ready could be about a month away and you want to have at least a rough outline

I love this post because it always bothers me when the people who were negative all year come out and say "see I told you so" like the odds aren't greatly in their favor of being right every single year.

IMO it's a way to hedge your disappointment for many - if you're right you get to brag about it and if you're wrong the Bruins won and you're ecstatic.

 

[sarge88]

Historically teams with the best record in NHL MLB & NFL don’t win

It’s a upset when they do

Right now Bruins are a serious bet to win the President Trophy again and that sets the misfits up for failure

They are overachievers and each playoff round is basically a flip of the coin

To me the Bruins are 50 % winning round one

25% winning two rounds

12.5 winning three

And 6.25 % winning Cup

For the Bruins are chokers and they hurt me crowd

Good news 93.75 % favors you getting to whine and cry and say they are soft and Pasta is one dimensional and Ullmark sucks

Get your posts ready could be about a month away and you want to have at least a rough outline

Agreed.

I’ve never called them chokers because I, more than most, believe in each and every game, period and shift being an independent event, subject to the whims of effort, skill and luck.

If this stuff was cut and dried an 8 would never beat a 1 and a 7 would never beat a 2.

This is why I enjoy the regular season so much. Most teams will play, what? 65-100% more regular season games than playoff games?

If you’re basing your sports watching joy on the playoffs, you’re going to be miserable 99% of the time.

In fact, (and I don’t care if I get bashed for this) what the Bruins did in the RS last year is more impressive to me than what Vegas did in winning the cup.

If you told someone from Mars that one team won more of their 82 games than any team in history over a 6 month period and another won 16 games in a two and a half month span, it would be tough to make them understand that more people laud the second team.

And I fully get the other side of this perspective, but we’ve seen a lot of teams just end up being hot at the right time and winning a title.

If it’s your team it’s awesome!

If it isn’t, it sucks.

 

[NDiesel]

Just a random thought - if we had made this thread mid 2011 season how much different would it look? IIRC Julien was on the hot seat, the team sorely lacked a puck moving dman, scoring and their PP were both major concern.

Not making this post to say we should ignore and never discuss flaws, but moreso that there is no team out there without flaws that can be exploited.

 

[Eddie Munson]

Get your posts ready could be about a month away and you want to have at least a rough outline

Already got mine written, saved, and waiting. Just so you're not surprised, I quote you twice in it.

And let me give away the game here. They lose and I get to do a lap. They win and I get to celebrate. It's a win win. All you positivity saps are missing out!

 

[NDiesel]

Already got mine written, saved, and waiting. Just so you're not surprised, I quote you twice in it.

And let me give away the game here. They lose and I get to do a lap. They win and I get to celebrate. It's a win win. All you positivity saps are missing out!

Yeah but we get to be positive for 12 months, you guys only get to do it for the summer after they win

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

The team is flawed and its easy to cover up those flaws in the regular season. Problem is those flaws are fatal in the postseason (center play and lack of high end scoring depth)

 

[PB37]

Just a random thought - if we had made this thread mid 2011 season how much different would it look? IIRC Julien was on the hot seat, the team sorely lacked a puck moving dman, scoring and their PP were both major concern.

Not making this post to say we should ignore and never discuss flaws, but moreso that there is no team out there without flaws that can be exploited.

The board was in full melt down mode after G2 against Montreal. Probably the worst I've ever seen it here.

 

[DKH]

Agreed.

I’ve never called them chokers because I, more than most, believe in each and every game, period and shift being an independent event, subject to the whims of effort, skill and luck.

If this stuff was cut and dried an 8 would never beat a 1 and a 7 would never beat a 2.

This is why I enjoy the regular season so much. Most teams will play, what? 65-100% more regular season games than playoff games?

If you’re basing your sports watching joy on the playoffs, you’re going to be miserable 99% of the time.

In fact, (and I don’t care if I get bashed for this) what the Bruins did in the RS last year is more impressive to me than what Vegas did in winning the cup.

If you told someone from Mars that one team won more of their 82 games than any team in history over a 6 month period and another won 16 games in a two and a half month span, it would be tough to make them understand that more people laud the second team.

And I fully get the other side of this perspective, but we’ve seen a lot of teams just end up being hot at the right time and winning a title.

If it’s your team it’s awesome!

If it isn’t, it sucks.

the Bruins entertain me that’s pretty much what it’s all about with me

 

[Eddie Munson]

Just a random thought - if we had made this thread mid 2011 season how much different would it look? IIRC Julien was on the hot seat, the team sorely lacked a puck moving dman, scoring and their PP were both major concern.

Not making this post to say we should ignore and never discuss flaws, but moreso that there is no team out there without flaws that can be exploited.

Very true. I think people conflate this being a flawed roster with them thinking people believe they have no chance to win the cup. The reality is somewhere in the middle. When you talk about your weaknesses it allows you to understand how you would need to address them. In the Bruins case it means they need to gameplan around faceoffs in the defensive zone, capitalize on scoring chances, get strong goaltending.

Since I've been a negative Nancy this entire thread, there's some hope as they already addressed some of the faceoff issues with getting home ice advantage.......... also so they lose on home ice for game 7 which will fuel my negativity for another year and make this place unbearable.

 

[Over the volcano]

The fact they're in first just says they're a good team. Last year they were a great team and got beat in the first round by a team that was built for the playoffs. Oh and is currently 1 point behind the Bruins with a game in hand.. .

Only 13 games left and 2 of em are against that team , will be a great measuring stick for the state of this club.

 

[SwayHeyKid]

The faceoffs issue is more just a symptom of the real problem; the lack of legitimate top 6 centers on this team. Most Stanley Cup winners have an elite #1 center and a good #2 center. This team has 3 #3 centers. That is the most glaring underlying issue that they can get by with during the regular season but will be very difficult to do so in the playoffs.

Coyle 69-23-31-54
Bergeron 78-27-31-58

Zacha 65-17-29-46
Krejci 70-16-40-56

Geekie 63-16-18-34
Coyle 82-16-29-45

The centers are legit 1-3 NHL players. Prob better than last years group considering how banged up 37 and 46 were.

 

[sarge88]

the Bruins entertain me that’s pretty much what it’s all about with me

Me too!

 

[goldnblack]

I do believe they are on the downward slope. It's only natural. Same thing is happening to PIT, WASH, CHI, ... just sooner. What will really get me discouraged is if they start treading water again, like they did in the 90s and 2000s. First round exits with mid round draft picks (if they don't trade them away). Useless.
If ownership/FO have any cajones, they should do a rebuild soon.

Why do you believe this?

Marchand is the only core player in an age danger zone at present. Coyle will be the next, but there's still time there.

They are young everywhere else. Next year when Gryz is replaced by Lohrei, Forbort leaves, and probably Shatty leaves, the average age on D is going to be very young.

If (and when?) they trade Linus, before giving the deals to Swayman/Heinen and *maybe* Jake, they will have 26M in cap space. Sweeney will be dealing with the most cap flexibility he's had since...ever?

And that's with Lysell, Merk, Poitras etc probably close to ready to make the jump (at those prices).

I actually see no reason to believe there will be a rebuild now. Somehow, he already did it.

 

[DKH]

Me too!

I’m here for a good time and a long time

 

[NDiesel]

Why do you believe this?

Marchand is the only core player in an age danger zone at present. Coyle will be the next, but there's still time there.

They are young everywhere else. Next year when Gryz is replaced by Lohrei, Forbort leaves, and probably Shatty leaves, the average age on D is going to be very young.

If (and when?) they trade Linus, before giving the deals to Swayman/Heinen and *maybe* Jake, they will have 26M in cap space. Sweeney will be dealing with the most cap flexibility he's had since...ever?

And that's with Lysell, Merk, Poitras etc probably close to ready to make the jump (at those prices).

I actually see no reason to believe there will be a rebuild now. Somehow, he already did it.

I will admit although I've generally liked what Sweeney has done, I am worried about him having that much money in UFA...I hope he's learned his lessons from Reilly/Forbort/Moore/Backes/Beleskey and sticks to shorter contracts for those role players.

 

[NeelyDan]

the Bruins entertain me that’s pretty much what it’s all about with me

so many of this lose sight of this way too often

 

[goldnblack]

I will admit although I've generally liked what Sweeney has done, I am worried about him having that much money in UFA...I hope he's learned his lessons from Reilly/Forbort/Moore/Backes/Beleskey and sticks to shorter contracts for those role players.

I think after his miracle this offseason, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

 

[SwayHeyKid]

Brad Marchand disagrees.

Nothing a fan can do about it though, and we are all entertained or we probably wouldn't watch.

 

[EverettMike]

The board was in full melt down mode after G2 against Montreal. Probably the worst I've ever seen it here.

Not everyone gave up hope after the first two games, which is why 3-0/3-0 was the worst this forum ever got and likely ever will. Everyone was also correct to feel that way.

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

Something else to consider re: this year

 

[Aussie Bruin]

Agreed.

I’ve never called them chokers because I, more than most, believe in each and every game, period and shift being an independent event, subject to the whims of effort, skill and luck.

If this stuff was cut and dried an 8 would never beat a 1 and a 7 would never beat a 2.

This is why I enjoy the regular season so much. Most teams will play, what? 65-100% more regular season games than playoff games?

If you’re basing your sports watching joy on the playoffs, you’re going to be miserable 99% of the time.

In fact, (and I don’t care if I get bashed for this) what the Bruins did in the RS last year is more impressive to me than what Vegas did in winning the cup.

If you told someone from Mars that one team won more of their 82 games than any team in history over a 6 month period and another won 16 games in a two and a half month span, it would be tough to make them understand that more people laud the second team.

And I fully get the other side of this perspective, but we’ve seen a lot of teams just end up being hot at the right time and winning a title.

If it’s your team it’s awesome!

If it isn’t, it sucks.

I respect your view here but can't get on board with this line of thinking because the regular season is not a straight race to the summit. No-one cares about the Presidents' Trophy or achieving the maximum number of points. Instead there are two priorities - get enough points to qualify in a good position, and get the team in the best possible shape for the playoffs. The latter of these will usually mean basically voluntarily sacrificing points from time to time to manage minutes and injuries, develop tactics, and blood rookies, new trades etc. Furthermore, because seedings are determined by division and conference, not everyone is in exactly the same fight.

I don't want to undersell the regular season record. What the Bruins did last year was very impressive, and difficult to do. It was also a lot of fun. But I can never equate it with winning a Cup, let alone as surpassing it. If the NHL ran like one of the European soccer leagues - a simple fight to first place, with no finals - then I'd view it differently. Arsenal's unbeaten 2003-04 EPL season is rightly the stuff of legend. But in hockey the real war is fought in the postseason, where it's just the best teams, every game matters and everyone has the same goal. Lifting the Cup is all that truly matters, all that anyone actually remembers except when the record books are occasionally trotted out to make some point. Whereas regular season wins are simply a means to a largely separate end.

The other stumbling block to me in regards to appreciating the Bruins' record is that chasing the damn thing actually contributed to them losing in the first round. In that sense I see it as a bit of a tainted achievement - on balance I'm still glad they did it, because it was pretty remarkable and thoroughly enjoyable, but IMO there's also no denying it hurt them in the end when it came time to compete for the real goal. An example of great and sustained performance perhaps, but not greatness in its true and full sense.