CHRoNiCWiLL
Registered User
The leafs have missed the playoffs every year since the lockout except for 2013. The leafs have also never won the the draft lottery in any of those years missed. Now prior to 2014, a team who won the lottery could only move up a maximum of 4 spots. We will ignore this fact and only consider the 'act' of winning the lottery rather than obtaining 1st overall.
So looking at where we placed and regardless of whether we kept the pick or not:
2006 - 13th - 0.8%
2007 - 13th - 0.8%
2008 - 7th - 4.7%
2009 - 7th - 4.7%
2010 - 2nd -18.8%
2011 - 9th - 2.7%
2012 - 5th - 8.1%
2014 - 8th - 3.6%
Combining these odds we have 44.2% chance. Average that out over 8 years we have 5.525% chance to win the lottery each year.
So doing the math to calculate 1 success in 8 tries, we have
(8 choose 1)(.0525)^1(1-.0525)^7
= 8(.0525)(0.9475)^7 = 0.288
Thats 28.8% chance to win the lottery.
Lets say we finish 5th last, our chances are 8.5% combined with previous we have 8.5+44.2 = 52.7, average over 9 years 5.86% chance each year.
Doing the math again:
(9 choose 1)(0.0586)^1(1-0.0586)^8
=9(0.0586)(0.9414)^8 = 0.325.
OUR odds of winning the lottery on the 9th try is 32.5%!
So looking at where we placed and regardless of whether we kept the pick or not:
2006 - 13th - 0.8%
2007 - 13th - 0.8%
2008 - 7th - 4.7%
2009 - 7th - 4.7%
2010 - 2nd -18.8%
2011 - 9th - 2.7%
2012 - 5th - 8.1%
2014 - 8th - 3.6%
Combining these odds we have 44.2% chance. Average that out over 8 years we have 5.525% chance to win the lottery each year.
So doing the math to calculate 1 success in 8 tries, we have
(8 choose 1)(.0525)^1(1-.0525)^7
= 8(.0525)(0.9475)^7 = 0.288
Thats 28.8% chance to win the lottery.
Lets say we finish 5th last, our chances are 8.5% combined with previous we have 8.5+44.2 = 52.7, average over 9 years 5.86% chance each year.
Doing the math again:
(9 choose 1)(0.0586)^1(1-0.0586)^8
=9(0.0586)(0.9414)^8 = 0.325.
OUR odds of winning the lottery on the 9th try is 32.5%!
Last edited: