The Race for the Calder Trophy

[Minnewildsota]

Take defense out of the equation, what is Faber better at?

Take offense out of the equation, what is Bedard better at?
That's how stupid that question is.

 

[x Tame Impala]

If this thread were a bottle of wine it'd be a $5.99 bottle of Barefoot

Bedard could sit the rest of the season and still win the Calder. I never thought I'd have this much empathy with Oiler fans but here we are

 

[BHawk21]

What position in NHL hockey has the most influence on possession during a shift?

You used all situations numbers for a PK guy as your comparison? At ES Faber blows him out of the water in every stat. Like just laughably bad comparison.

Hockey games have all situations. Show me where Faber blows him out of the water. It was a compliment.

 

[MuckOG]

"historic". lol Theres 9 Dmen with 60+ pts in their rookie seasons. I don't count TOI as a historic accomplishment.

How many rookie defensemen came into the league and immediately took over the 1D spot? And a month or two in, took on the job of qb'ing the PP1 and a regular PK, also getting the toughest assignments in every game.....on a team fighting for the playoffs?

If it wasn't for Faber, the Wild would most likely be picking in the top 10 of this year's draft.

I don't think anyone thought Stutzle would win the Calder over Kaprizov, I thought that poll was about who would be the better player?

Yeah, that was the “over the next 3 seasons” poll. The Calder age talk was about Robertson.

You're right, my bad. Is was Robertson, not Stutzle.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I wonder why, can't be because the other team gameplans against Bedard, and against Bedard only by throwing either their best defenders or best players out against him every shift, focusing on him only, becuase he is literally their only threat to score every game, nope, can;t be that.

The Hawks have been 0.63 goals per 60 worse with Bedard on the ice. That's a 50% jump in their goal differential in the wrong direction. And that's with Bedard getting 60% offensive zone starts, while the rest of the team gets 44% offensive zone starts. That means that without Bedard on the ice, the Hawks start in the D zone 40% more often and still perform way better.

On top of that, Hawks get the last change in half of their games, making it harder for teams to matchup. Make all the excuses you want - but you can't explain away the fact that Bedard is currently a very flawed 5v5 player. The data and eye test are both pretty clear on this.

It's just that Bedard is terrible and the sole reason his line gets out produced, nope.

Nobody has said Bedard is terrible, but he's absolutely a defensive liability and is a big reason why the Hawks bleed goals against at 5v5.

 

[Toby91ca]

I agree its not a good argument, but its one that fans were making

Age will not factor into whomever wins the Calder..

Age does factor in, but you can't take player A with 12 goals and 29 pts (0.55ppg) and compared to player B with 27 goals and 51 pts (0.93ppg) and boost player A to the award because he's younger than player B. If player A had 25 goals and 48 pts it might have been different. I look at the age thing as more of a tiebreaker or close to that.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

You guys need to put your $ where your mouth is if you truly think Faber is taking home the Calder. Or even has a 10% chance of taking home the Calder.

Your getting 11 to 1 right now on Faber. If you want to profit $100 on Bedard you'd have to bet $2000.

This is how absurd this whole discussion is.

I am 100% sure Bedard will win the Calder, that doesn't mean he would be my pick.

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

If this thread were a bottle of wine it'd be a $5.99 bottle of Barefoot

Bedard could sit the rest of the season and still win the Calder. I never thought I'd have this much empathy with Oiler fans but here we are

Chicago would never sit him, they are trying to win the draft lottery, and he’s helping them get there.

Hockey games have all situations. Show me where Faber blows him out of the water. It was a compliment.

Raw corsi and Fenwick are meaningless when there is uneven PK and PP time allocations. You have to compare each type of situation individually (ES, 4v5, 5v4) if you want data that actually shows meaning. And Corsi and Fenwick are each significantly worse metrics for tracking impact compared to xGF% or even SCF% and HDCF%.

 

[MuckOG]

Age does factor in, but you can't take player A with 12 goals and 29 pts (0.55ppg) and compared to player B with 27 goals and 51 pts (0.93ppg) and boost player A to the award because he's younger than player B. If player A had 25 goals and 48 pts it might have been different. I look at the age thing as more of a tiebreaker or close to that.

As I was corrected above, it was Robertson that fans were making the age argument, not Stutzle.

Robertson: 17 g + 28a = 45 pts
Kaprizov: 27g + 24a = 51 pts.

 

[Spirits]

Really wanted to see San Jose or Arizona get Bedard.

 

[BHawk21]

Chicago would never sit him, they are trying to win the draft lottery, and he’s helping them get there.

Raw corsi and Fenwick are meaningless when there is uneven PK and PP time allocations. You have to compare each type of situation individually (ES, 4v5, 5v4) if you want data that actually shows meaning. And Corsi and Fenwick are each significantly worse metrics for tracking impact compared to xGF% or even SCF% and HDCF%.

Cherry picked stats but not showing them is interesting.

 

[Ajex12x]

Take offense out of the equation, what is Bedard better at?
That's how stupid that question is.

Exactly, look at his post again, responding to someone who said to take offence out what is Bedard better at?

 

[Toby91ca]

As I was corrected above, it was Robertson that fans were making the age argument, not Stutzle.

Robertson: 17 g + 28a = 45 pts
Kaprizov: 27g + 24a = 51 pts.

Not sure what the arguments were but for me, the age argument starts going away at some point.....Robertson wasn't 18 years old, or 19 or 20, he was 21 and Kaprisov was 23 (less than 2 year difference).....27 goals is a lot more than 17 as well.

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

Cherry picked stats but not showing them is interesting.

What does that mean? I can link you to natural stattrick but I am assuming you are already there. I’m not going to post a bunch of tables here from my phone, Faber is better in literally every category compared to Jones from my quick look at evens.

 

[x Tame Impala]

Chicago would never sit him, they are trying to win the draft lottery, and he’s helping them get there.

You're only seeing what you want to see. If that's your takeaway from watching Hawks games (of which i'm sure you've seen maybe 3 of them) then I'll leave you to your fabertism.

Really wanted to see San Jose or Arizona get Bedard.

You'll have to settle for seeing Chicago winning another Cup most likely instead

 

[Spirits]

You're only seeing what you want to see. If that's your takeaway from watching Hawks games (of which i'm sure you've seen maybe 3 of them) then I'll leave you to your fabertism.

You'll have to settle for seeing Chicago winning another Cup most likely instead

Not so sure about that.

 

[MuckOG]

Not sure what the arguments were but for me, the age argument starts going away at some point.....Robertson wasn't 18 years old, or 19 or 20, he was 21 and Kaprisov was 23 (less than 2 year difference).....27 goals is a lot more than 17 as well.

In the end, it was 5 points that separated them. But the argument was: Robertson's season was more impressive because of his age.

 

[x Tame Impala]

Not so sure about that.

They have better odds than San Jose and Arizona do at least.

 

[AKL]

You're only seeing what you want to see.

Yeah... you're definitely the objective one here...

 

[Spirits]

They have better odds than San Jose and Arizona do at least.

Perhaps. I will say Chicago isn't a dumpster fire organization like Edmonton, but unless they draft insanely well over the next few seasons, it will be tough to see them hoist the cup just yet.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Chicago would never sit him, they are trying to win the draft lottery, and he’s helping them get there.

I wouldn't go that far. Chicago is a better team with Bedard on it. But it's not because of his 5v5 play.

 

[EbonyRaptor]

Take scoring out of the equation, what areas of the game is Bedard better than Faber at this season?

I think my hypothetical was better than this one. C'mon!

 

[AKL]

I think my hypothetical was better than this one. C'mon!

Not defending the idea to take anything out of the equation, but your hypothetical was equally as useless in determing the Calder winner.

You may not have explicitly stated future projections or potential, but bringing it up in the form of a trade inherently requires you to consider it. Because the trade implication goes beyond this year, and presumably with two rookies, goes on for many years after this year. Which is 100% irrelevant to the Calder.

 

[BHawk21]

What does that mean? I can link you to natural stattrick but I am assuming you are already there. I’m not going to post a bunch of tables here from my phone, Faber is better in literally every category compared to Jones from my quick look at evens.

and yet they are very comparable in every category I actually posted.

I wouldn't go that far. Chicago is a better team with Bedard on it. But it's not because of his 5v5 play.

So you think the blackhawks would be better off not playing Bedard 5 on 5?

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

So you think the blackhawks would be better off not playing Bedard 5 on 5?

I think they would be better off playing him at wing for now. As a center, he's been roughly replacement level all around, but they would still probably miss him in close games. I feel like if they were a more competitive team he'd probably be playing harder and be a bit more focused defensively.

In the 14 games he missed, their underlying 5v5 possession numbers improved pretty much across the board, even though their actual results lagged (the Hawks shot at only 4.8% at 5v5 during that stretch). Bedard is a highly skilled player who should drive higher oish%, so you'd expect it to be lower without him, but not that much lower.

So yeah, he's really really good offensively, and really really bad defensively (like most teenagers).

But their PP without him was only 4 for 38 (10.5%) vs 17.4% with him. He undoubtedly makes them a better team.