The Race for the Calder Trophy

[ricky0034]

Faber is 20th in 5v5 points with 24 points. That would have also put him 20th in 2017-18.

That's a difference of 7 points over a full season, not really a huge difference, especially considering all the extra secondary points Carlson earned by playing on a literal cup winning team.

Funnily enough - Faber is 22nd in primary 5v5 points, and Carlson was 23rd in primary 5v5 points that season.

in like 2 posts we've gone from "Faber's ES production really isn't too far from prime Carlson's" to "Faber's 5 on 5 primary points are similar to Carlson's this one specific year that isn't even like his best year or anything"

I feel like i'm getting whiplash from how fast these goalposts are moving

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

in like 2 posts we've gone from "Faber's ES production really isn't too far from prime Carlson's" to "Faber's 5 on 5 primary points are similar to Carlson's this one specific year that isn't even like his best year or anything"

I feel like i'm getting whiplash from how fast these goalposts are moving

I'm not moving any goal posts lol, just pointing out that Faber's primary production was better.

Like I said, 7 points isn't a huge difference here, especially when you consider Carlson played on a literal cup winning team.

 

[rynryn]

I take Bedard and don't think it's close enough, but if it were close enough where I needed a tiebreaker in my mind, rightly or wrongly, I'd absolutely go with Bedard as he's 3 years younger.

Fair. Faber himself noted it (Bedard's performance) was extra impressive when thinking about his own abilities 3 years ago.

 

[EbonyRaptor]

I take Bedard and don't think it's close enough, but if it were close enough where I needed a tiebreaker in my mind, rightly or wrongly, I'd absolutely go with Bedard as he's 3 years younger.

I know the Calder isn't supposed to consider the age of the candidates, but it could and should be used in tiebreaker consideration as in if two candidates are close go with the younger one because it is a more impressive accomplishment - especially when many 18/19 year old players haven't physically matured as much as many older rookies.

There are only 4 players who were still 18 when this season started - Bedard, Carlsson, Fantilli, and Benson and only Bedard and Benson will play the entire season still 18 - Benson turns 19 in May and Bedard turns 19 in July.

Rookies that have had 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or more additional years to get bigger/stronger and develop their game certainly have that advantage over the 18/19 year old rookies.

So yeah, age isn't supposed to factor in the voting but it sure factors into the development and results of the players during their rookie seasons.

 

[thestonedkoala]

There's no world where Brock Faber is better than Connor Bedard lmfao

There is no world where Cale Makar is better than Connor McDavid...

The Calder is Bedard's to lose, but I just want to point out that Minnesota lost: Spurgeon (only played 16 games this season before going on LTIR), Brodin (51 GP, has missed 11 games so far), and the rest of the defensive core is:

Jake Middleton (decent middle pairing guy, but shouldn't be more than a 3/4 guy on a good team)

Zach Bogosian (cheap pick up, shouldn't play more than a bottom pair role at this point in his career)

Declan Chisholm (surprisingly effective, but still nothing special. Waiver pick up to try and fix the defense. Again, nothing more than a cheap body to help rotate)

Alex Goligoski (would probably be better as a seat filler in the press box than playing in the NHL. At best a reserve guy that fills in occasionally)

Dakota Mermis (AHL fodder that should be in the AHL, but due to injuries is playing a higher role than he should)

John Merrill (see Goligoski and then realize Merrill is worse than that)

Outside of Middleton, Minnesota has zero guys on defense that would be more than a 6/7th guy at BEST on another team. Even on a depleted defensive team, fans want Merrill and Goligoski benched, but yeah they don't have the bodies to do that.

Middleton - Spurgeon
Brodin - Faber
---
Chisholm - Bogosian
Goligoski/Merrill

Should have been the defense this year but they ended up with:

Middleton - Faber
Chisholm - Bogosian
Mermis - Merrill/Goligoski

Tell me again, how that is any different than Bedard playing with *check notes* old vets and rookies that shouldn't be in the NHL, because Faber is playing with the same.

Without Faber, Minnesota wouldn't even be sniffing at the playoffs. They'd be around where Chicago is.

 

[Hawkaholic]

Tell me again, how that is any different than Bedard playing with *check notes* old vets and rookies that shouldn't be in the NHL, because Faber is playing with the same.

Without Faber, Minnesota wouldn't even be sniffing at the playoffs. They'd be around where Chicago is.

Its different because they have difference makers on forward, guys who can pin the other team in their own zone. He has offensive players he can get the puck to, and not have to worry about anything else except supporting them. The Hawks not only have no one else up front to help Bedard pin the other team in their own zone, their defense is mostly trash as well.

I know the Calder isn't supposed to consider the age of the candidates, but it could and should be used in tiebreaker consideration as in if two candidates are close go with the younger one because it is a more impressive accomplishment - especially when many 18/19 year old players haven't physically matured as much as many older rookies.

There are only 4 players who were still 18 when this season started - Bedard, Carlsson, Fantilli, and Benson and only Bedard and Benson will play the entire season still 18 - Benson turns 19 in May and Bedard turns 19 in July.

Rookies that have had 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or more additional years to get bigger/stronger and develop their game certainly have that advantage over the 18/19 year old rookies.

So yeah, age isn't supposed to factor in the voting but it sure factors into the development and results of the players during their rookie seasons.

Age most definitely plays a factor, it just depends on how big the spread is between the older player and the younger player.

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

Its different because they have difference makers on forward, guys who can pin the other team in their own zone. He has offensive players he can get the puck to, and not have to worry about anything else except supporting them. The Hawks not only have no one else up front to help Bedard pin the other team in their own zone, their defense is mostly trash as well.

Bedard plays with the two best other forwards on his team, Faber plays with the 4th best D man and then gets half his time with top 6 and half his time with the Wild’s bottom 6 forwards, which has been entirely AHLers. We have a very significant sample of how Faber looks playing with bad players, the coach trusts him in those scenarios for a reason.

Chicago fans are arguing that we haven’t seen Bedard with elite talent yet, which is true. But why does that matter if we watch the games and the trophy is about individual proficiency? If he played with elite talent then the argument just turns into how much he is being carried if you want to continue down that surface level, point production is all that matters, route.

 

[Ace Card Bedard]

Bedard plays with the two best other forwards on his team

That's arguable.

36-year old Folligno who hadn't hit 35 points since 2019.
24-year old Kurashev who had a career high 25 points last season.

They didn't do much while Bedard was out either (Foligno also got injured and missed a few games.)

Jason Dickinson may very well be the other best forward on the Blackhawks.

 

[Hawkaholic]

Bedard plays with the two best other forwards on his team, Faber plays with the 4th best D man and then gets half his time with top 6 and half his time with the Wild’s bottom 6 forwards, which has been entirely AHLers. We have a very significant sample of how Faber looks playing with bad players, the coach trusts him in those scenarios for a reason.

Chicago fans are arguing that we haven’t seen Bedard with elite talent yet, which is true. But why does that matter if we watch the games and the trophy is about individual proficiency? If he played with elite talent then the argument just turns into how much he is being carried if you want to continue down that surface level, point production is all that matters, route.

You mean Kurashev, with his previous high of 25pts in a season, and Foligno? Who was a healthy scratch for the Bs last year? lol

We are arguing how impressive it is that he is near a point per game playing with the garbage he is playing with. If you watch the Hawks game last night, Bedard was a one man show, and had countless opportunities but his linemates couldn't convert, or completely messed up the play. The fact he has done what he has done with nothing around him is insane.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Carlson has averaged 26 5v5 points per 82 games in his career. Faber is on pace for 28 5v5 points.

During his cup winning season, Carlson scored 31 5v5 points. Scoring was slightly lower then, but Carlson was also playing on a much better team.

View attachment 841684
Like I said, Faber's not that far behind.

Very strange when you’re looking at Matthews/a Kanes rookie seasons va Bedard you always bring up the “scoring level” arguments for Kane/Matthews but now when you’re defending Faber you disregard it as no big deal.

Very strange indeed.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Bedard plays with the two best other forwards on his team, Faber plays with the 4th best D man and then gets half his time with top 6 and half his time with the Wild’s bottom 6 forwards, which has been entirely AHLers. We have a very significant sample of how Faber looks playing with bad players, the coach trusts him in those scenarios for a reason.

Chicago fans are arguing that we haven’t seen Bedard with elite talent yet, which is true. But why does that matter if we watch the games and the trophy is about individual proficiency? If he played with elite talent then the argument just turns into how much he is being carried if you want to continue down that surface level, point production is all that matters, route.

The “two best forwards on the team” had 25 and 26pts respectively last season

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

You mean Kurashev, with his previous high of 25pts in a season, and Foligno? Who was a healthy scratch for the Bs last year? lol

We are arguing how impressive it is that he is near a point per game playing with the garbage he is playing with. If you watch the Hawks game last night, Bedard was a one man show, and had countless opportunities but his linemates couldn't convert, or completely messed up the play. The fact he has done what he has done with nothing around him is insane.

Unless your argument is that Kurashev is a worse player than all of Vinny Lettieri, Jake Lucchini, Mason Shaw, Brandon Duhaime, Connor Dewar, Freddy Gaudreau (with no abdominals) and the rest of the Wild’s AHL guys making under $850k, then nothing about my point changes. Faber plays with trash players too consistently in his 25 minutes a night. And assessing his game with good and bad players on the ice is the exact same for me. He looks excellent individually in all scenarios, whatever more points he would or wouldn’t score depending on his teammates doesn’t factor into how I view his individual play, and it shouldn’t for Bedard either when we have the ability to watch all of his games and see what he does in each situation.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Very strange when you’re looking at Matthews/a Kanes rookie seasons va Bedard you always bring up the “scoring level” arguments for Kane/Matthews but now when you’re defending Faber you disregard it as no big deal.

I didn't say it was no big deal, I listed it as a factor, it's just not nearly as much of a factor because of the big scoring jump in 2017-18, which was 7.2% higher than it was in 2016-17.

Team goals per game:
2007-08: 2.78 (Kane's rookie year)
2016-17: 2.77 (Matthews' rookie year)
2017-18: 2.97 (Carlson year in question)
2023-24: 3.12

This season, scoring is only 5.1% higher than it was in 2017-18, but 12.6% higher than in 2016-17)

That's why I said scoring was only "slightly" lower in 2017-18. It's not nearly as relevant of a factor for consideration (in fact, it's 2.5X less relevant.)

Very strange indeed.

It would probably be less strange if you actually paid attention.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Its different because they have difference makers on forward, guys who can pin the other team in their own zone.

Kaprizov was playing hurt up until the All-Star Break, Boldy was lost, Eriksson-Ek was probably one of their only good forwards, Zuccs is a black hole on defense and Hartman and Foligno were consistently injured. They also had uh Johansson, Duhaime, Dewar, Gaudreau and Maroon.

Faber was actually one of the big reasons why they had difference makers on forward, because it gave the forwards a chance to you know play looser and not worry about the defense.

He has offensive players he can get the puck to, and not have to worry about anything else except supporting them. The Hawks not only have no one else up front to help Bedard pin the other team in their own zone, their defense is mostly trash as well.

They have terrible coaching and their defense isn't mostly trash.

Up until around the All-Star Break, Minnesota was bad. They had one winning month out of all of those months because their forwards sucked and they weren't getting ANY help other than Eriksson-Ek and Faber. They were 3-4-2 in October, 4-6-2 in November, 9-5 in December, 5-8-1 in January. They had a record of 20 - 23 - 5 by the end of January. I think the current run of 13-5-4 fans completely blank that Minnesota had a losing record until February.

Age most definitely plays a factor, it just depends on how big the spread is between the older player and the younger player.

The problem with this is that defensemen tend to break into the league a bit older than forwards. The biggest reason is that they have to get caught up with how much faster and stronger players are because you know, you can't just tell them to go score goals.

Also you do realize that without Faber, Minnesota's defense would literally be:

Middleton - Bogosian/Goligoski/Merill AS THEIR TOP LINE.

That's as good as Kurashev and Foligno.

Finally there is this little nugget:

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thehockeynews.com

I don't think fans realize that the same could be said if Faber went down with an injury in that Minnesota would be totally and utterly screwed.

 

[Hawkaholic]

Kaprizov was playing hurt up until the All-Star Break, Boldy was lost, Eriksson-Ek was probably one of their only good forwards, Zuccs is a black hole on defense and Hartman and Foligno were consistently injured. They also had uh Johansson, Duhaime, Dewar, Gaudreau and Maroon.

Faber was actually one of the big reasons why they had difference makers on forward, because it gave the forwards a chance to you know play looser and not worry about the defense.



They have terrible coaching and their defense isn't mostly trash.

Up until around the All-Star Break, Minnesota was bad. They had one winning month out of all of those months because their forwards sucked and they weren't getting ANY help other than Eriksson-Ek and Faber. They were 3-4-2 in October, 4-6-2 in November, 9-5 in December, 5-8-1 in January. They had a record of 20 - 23 - 5 by the end of January. I think the current run of 13-5-4 fans completely blank that Minnesota had a losing record until February.


The problem with this is that defensemen tend to break into the league a bit older than forwards. The biggest reason is that they have to get caught up with how much faster and stronger players are because you know, you can't just tell them to go score goals.

Also you do realize that without Faber, Minnesota's defense would literally be:

Middleton - Bogosian/Goligoski/Merill AS THEIR TOP LINE.

That's as good as Kurashev and Foligno.

Finally there is this little nugget:

Loading…

thehockeynews.com

I don't think fans realize that the same could be said if Faber went down with an injury in that Minnesota would be totally and utterly screwed.

An injured forward group and crappy Zucc for the WIld that is still playing, is still better than anything the Hawks have outside of Bedard. The other 4-5 players you mentioned would be top 6 players on the Hawks.

Chicago also has terrible coaching and yes, Chicagos defense is mostly trash. Seth Jones isn't that great, probably a 2nd pairing Dman at best this year, and Vlasic has been around Fabers level without the offense. Outside of that, its all garbage.

LOL @ that article.

 

[Hawkaholic]

Unless your argument is that Kurashev is a worse player than all of Vinny Lettieri, Jake Lucchini, Mason Shaw, Brandon Duhaime, Connor Dewar, Freddy Gaudreau (with no abdominals) and the rest of the Wild’s AHL guys making under $850k, then nothing about my point changes. Faber plays with trash players too consistently in his 25 minutes a night. And assessing his game with good and bad players on the ice is the exact same for me. He looks excellent individually in all scenarios, whatever more points he would or wouldn’t score depending on his teammates doesn’t factor into how I view his individual play, and it shouldn’t for Bedard either when we have the ability to watch all of his games and see what he does in each situation.

?
Faber has played with Kaprizov, Brodin, Boldy for over 600mins, and 700+mins with Eriksson Ek. Those guys are all legit top line players, Bedard has played with exactly zero top line players, all year.

My point stands, put Bedard with any of those players for 600+ mins this year, and he has 20 more points than he has right now.

 

[Ace Card Bedard]

Finally there is this little nugget:

Loading…

thehockeynews.com

That article was from Jan. 24th.
The Hawks were 3-6 without Bedard at that point.
They lost the next 5 games before Bedard's return.

So they went 3-11 without him. Definitely worse than with him in the lineup.
(3-12 if you count the game in which he got injured in the 1st period, Bedard only played 3mins)

 

[thestonedkoala]

An injured forward group and crappy Zucc for the WIld that is still playing, is still better than anything the Hawks have outside of Bedard. The other 4-5 players you mentioned would be top 6 players on the Hawks.

You haven't been watching the Wild then.

Chicago also has terrible coaching and yes, Chicagos defense is mostly trash. Seth Jones isn't that great, probably a 2nd pairing Dman at best this year, and Vlasic has been around Fabers level without the offense. Outside of that, its all garbage.

And outside of Faber and Middleton, who is like Seth Jones - it's been garbage.

Honest question; do you think Minnesota would be just as good without Faber as they are with Faber?

 

[Hawkaholic]

You haven't been watching the Wild then.



And outside of Faber and Middleton, who is like Seth Jones - it's been garbage.

Honest question; do you think Minnesota would be just as good without Faber as they are with Faber?

You haven't been watching the Hawks lol

They would be slightly worse, just like the Hawks without Bedard.

That article was from Jan. 24th.
The Hawks were 3-6 without Bedard at that point.
They lost the next 5 games before Bedard's return.

So they went 3-11 without him. Definitely worse than with him in the lineup.
(3-12 if you count the game in which he got injured in the 1st period, Bedard only played 3mins)

And scored all of 21 goals without Bedard. Over a season, that's like 123 goals scored. Bedard has been involved in 40% of Chicago's total goals. Yeah, they are definitely better without him lol

 

[My3Sons]

Why have some folks gotten so bogged down in the details of Bedard and Faber? The Calder will be voted on by a group that isn't going to go that deep into the weeds. It almost certainly goes to Bedard, but that is not a referendum on either player. Faber is playing very well and both guys have a very bright future and outside of the Calder this season they will probably never be compared again. If Luke Hughes passes Faber in points that's probably the final factor that sways a few more votes to Bedard but that wouldn't make Faber any less of a player.

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

?
Faber has played with Kaprizov, Brodin, Boldy for over 600mins, and 700+mins with Eriksson Ek. Those guys are all legit top line players, Bedard has played with exactly zero top line players, all year.

My point stands, put Bedard with any of those players for 600+ mins this year, and he has 20 more points than he has right now.

Whoosh. There is no way of definitively proving that, and even if you could, it just means those points relied on who he played with, nothing to do with his own play. I cannot state any clearer how little I care about raw production, but rather the means of getting there.

For fun, I will imagine your scenario applied to the Wild. Kaprizov was a stationary turret for the first half of the season, there is no chance that Bedard and Kap would have spent significant 5V5 time together without getting completely crushed in their own zone, PP would have been the entirety of Bedard’s time with him, but the Wild aren’t exactly lacking talent on PP1. JEE is a center, and defense first so there’s no extra points there, Brodin is also a pure defensive D man who would only help out Bedard’s plus/minus, not points. So that leaves Boldy, who also battled injury and a extremely low shooting percentage for the first half of the season, as the guy that maybe bumps some of Bedard’s offense on line two. But then he has Marcus Johansson on his LW and it’s still the same caliber of player as he plays with now but he is getting less minutes.

 

[x Tame Impala]

The Wild are fighting for a playoff spot while the Hawks are the 2nd worst team in the league. What’s the argument here? Faber plays with higher quality teammates, it’s indisputable. Not a ton of all stars in Minny of course but there’s at least decent/regular NHL players there pacing for 60+ points. 5 20+ goal scorers. I mean, get real here guys.

Unless you’re going to try and tell me Faber is carrying the Wild out of the gutter on his lonesome. The Hawks were so bad going into this offseason our GM brought in Hall, Foligno, and Perry…offensive stalwarts, to make the team better. Let that sink in. Bedard plays with no one. I was at the game last night. No help out there at all. Pucks die on everyone else’s sticks and they can’t make plays happen.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Unless you’re going to try and tell me Faber is carrying the Wild out of the gutter on his lonesome. The Hawks were so bad going into this offseason our GM brought in Hall, Foligno, and Perry…offensive stalwarts, to make the team better. Let that sink in. Bedard plays with no one. I was at the game last night. No help out there at all. Pucks die on everyone else’s sticks and they can’t make plays happen.

Faber is carrying Minnesota's defense; you can't tell me that Minnesota's defense that has a top pairing of Middleton - Bogosian is going to be effective.

Again, if you remove Faber from Minnesota, do you think they would be in the position they are in now?

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

The Wild are fighting for a playoff spot while the Hawks are the 2nd worst team in the league. What’s the argument here? Faber plays with higher quality teammates, it’s indisputable. Not a ton of all stars in Minny of course but there’s at least decent/regular NHL players there pacing for 60+ points. 5 20+ goal scorers. I mean, get real here guys.

Unless you’re going to try and tell me Faber is carrying the Wild out of the gutter on his lonesome. The Hawks were so bad going into this offseason our GM brought in Hall, Foligno, and Perry…offensive stalwarts, to make the team better. Let that sink in. Bedard plays with no one. I was at the game last night. No help out there at all. Pucks die on everyone else’s sticks and they can’t make plays happen.

The argument from me is that relative team strength is a stupid topic when talking about how good an individual player is. There is so much nuance to each situation that blanket statements about how much higher one’s point output would be is complete nonsense. You play the hand that you are dealt, how you play it, regardless of luck based outcome, is what determines how good you are in my eyes.

 

[x Tame Impala]

The argument from me is that relative team strength is a stupid topic when talking about how good an individual player is. There is so much nuance to each situation that blanket statements about how much higher one’s point output would be is complete nonsense. You play the hand that you are dealt, how you play it, regardless of luck based outcome, is what determines how good you are in my eyes.

Yeah fair enough and in terms of individual talent Bedard is clearly ahead of Faber. The gap would be even greater if Bedard was playing with Kaprizov, JEE, Boldy, Zuccarello, and Hartman. He's not, however, and instead plays with aging vets or barely-NHL level talent.

Bedard is ahead regardless and he'll win the Calder because of it. You and Whiskey have just gone too far along on your tangents to be objective