OT: The Pittsburgher Thread: Its the offseason

[Zirakzigil]

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It’s a two way street though I hope you know.

However, me disagreeing with someone doesn’t have anything to do with my thoughts about if they are good fans or not.

I don’t care if someone is a good fan or a bad fan -that isn’t something I spend much time concerning myself over.

If someone is happy watching them stay mediocre and thinks things will get better that way, cool.

Me seeing that as backwards thinking has no bearing on someone being a good or bad fan.

And to the point I was trying to make on here the other day, your best chances of winning the Super Bowl are when you have your QB on his rookie deal. Once you start having to pay that guy $25M+, you have to make cuts in other areas. Drafting 'the QB of the future' this year would essentially be burning a year of his rookie contract because they have too many other holes to actually compete next year.

Of course, that only goes far. To your point, if the next Joe Burrow was available, you've got to take him. But by all accounts, that guy doesn't exist this year let alone at #20.

Of course you need a good QB. That's not the point. I just think when you look at the SB winners, their QB's tend to be young guys on their rookie contracts or at least unproven enough that they haven't really cashed in yet (Mahomes, Foles/Wentz, Wilson, Flacco, Rodgers, Brees, Ben) or old guys taking way under market value (Brady, Manning). Once they start getting big contracts, most of them never even make it back to the Super Bowl.

It's not a rule written in stone or anything, but QB's get paid a lot of money. So when you can get a good one and have him for cheap, it's a major advantage and you want that advantage to last as long as possible. The Steelers have too many holes to fill in a year or maybe even 2, so unless you really like the guy, I'd wait.

You're right they are wrong about QB prospects, and prospects in general really, all the time....but they are right about them a lot, too. I think a lot of the overrating comes when there aren't many good ones and the 'top' guys just look good in comparison.

Ideally that rookie QB is the last piece of your team to maximize your window, I fully agree with that. That said, it’s very difficult to acquire an elite QB either via the draft or by other means so if they can get “their guy” they should go for it. The % of cap the QBs that make it to the SB is usually around 12%, it will likely be around that or higher this year. Landing an outlier like Russell Wilson (round 3) or Pat Mahomes (potential GOAT) is a bit of an unrealistic expectation, IMO. Burrow can be included in that list too, but he was a 1st ov pick and we’d really have to regress to land someone of that caliber (kinda contradicts your point too). Josh Allen really didn’t become a SB contender until after he got his big contract. Get the QB first and build around him after is my philosophy. An elite QB can change the outlook of an entire organization, as we’ve seen with Burrow. Justin Herbert is considered to be an elite franchise QB and he hasn’t even gotten into the playoffs yet.

Winning a Super Bowl doesn't require a quarterback on a cheap deal

That's my whole point. So we agree?


When did I say to wait until R3 to draft the next QB? I'm saying wait a year, a year that will probably go badly with the current QB's on the roster, fill out some of the roster first, get a higher pick in 2023, and then draft a QB.


When did I say my expectation was to get someone as good as Mahomes? You're just making stuff up to argue against.

Mahomes was 10th overall, by the way. It's not unrealistic to get a franchise QB around there at all. The Steelers got one around there one time. Turned out alright for them if I recall.

It's not unrealistic for the Steelers to finish around there next year if they go with Rudolph or Haskins either.


How does that contradict my point? Burrow only counts $8M (4.2%) towards the cap.

I also literally said if you have a shot at the next Joe Burrow, you take it regardless, but that I don't think that guy exists this year.


Allen's contract doesn't start really kicking in until the year after next. He is only making $10M (5.4%) this year and $16M (7.8%) next year.


This is literally the opposite of the first sentence in your post. So we don't agree?


And?


I don't think that article says what you think it does nor what the title of it suggests.

Look at the list of Super Bowl winners. It is all rookie deals, unproven deals like Brees (8.7% of cap), 2 of the all-time greats taking under market value, and Eli ( ) That actually proves my point more than anything.

This article's point is that when you get a good QB, you're still better off paying them and hoping for the best than you are starting from scratch and trying to find a good QB. I don't even disagree with that. I just disagree that this the year the Steelers should try to find that QB.

Click to read more...

 

[T1K]

That's my whole point. So we agree?


When did I say to wait until R3 to draft the next QB? I'm saying wait a year, a year that will probably go badly with the current QB's on the roster, fill out some of the roster first, get a higher pick in 2023, and then draft a QB.


When did I say my expectation was to get someone as good as Mahomes? You're just making stuff up to argue against.

Mahomes was 10th overall, by the way. It's not unrealistic to get a franchise QB around there at all. The Steelers got one around there one time. Turned out alright for them if I recall.

It's not unrealistic for the Steelers to finish around there next year if they go with Rudolph or Haskins either.


How does that contradict my point? Burrow only counts $8M (4.2%) towards the cap.

I also literally said if you have a shot at the next Joe Burrow, you take it regardless, but that I don't think that guy exists this year.


Allen's contract doesn't start really kicking in until the year after next. He is only making $10M (5.4%) this year and $16M (7.8%) next year.


This is literally the opposite of the first sentence in your post. So we don't agree?


And?


I don't think that article says what you think it does nor what the title of it suggests.

Look at the list of Super Bowl winners. It is all rookie deals, unproven deals like Brees (8.7% of cap), 2 of the all-time greats taking under market value, and Eli ( ) That actually proves my point more than anything.

This article's point is that when you get a good QB, you're still better off paying them and hoping for the best than you are starting from scratch and trying to find a good QB. I don't even disagree with that. I just disagree that this the year the Steelers should try to find that QB.

I don't have the multi-quote skills to reply to each of your points so below are my responses:

1. I said it's ideal to find rookie QB as your last piece to a team. The reality is most teams build from QB first.
2. Russell Wilson is one of the most prominent examples of a rookie QB contract leading to a SB. I never implied you said to wait til R3... Sorry you don't think that's fair game to mention.
3. I never said getting the next Mahomes that was your expectation. I'm just going thru the list of rookie QB contracts who have won SBs. I don't think it's a coincidence that all of the rookie contract QBs (except for Flacco) from that list were outliers. While Mahomes was the 10th pick, he is the most clear outlier out there. He's not a typical 10th ov pick - benefited from being put in a great situation from a scheme and development standpoint.
4. Burrow contradicts your point because he was a 1st overall pick. We just made the playoffs with the corpse of Big Ben, one of the lowest rated QBs this season, at the helm. If we are going to bolster the team outside of QB this year and wait til next year to get our QB, do you really think we'd be bad enough to get the 1st ov pick? Ironically, Pickett's pro comparable is Joe Burrow.
5. Fair point on Josh Allen, I thought it had kicked in already.
6. Idealism vs realism
7. RE: Herbert, I don't think LA has any regrets getting Herbert despite wasting a couple of his rookie contract years.
8. My main takeaway from the article was this:

"Since 2010, 15 different quarterbacks have played in a Super Bowl. Tom Brady, Russell Wilson and Peyton Manning have played in multiple. And 12 of those 15 quarterbacks weren’t drastically underpaid."

There's a ton of variance in a single football game. If Mahomes and Wilson lost their SBs would we even be having this discussion?

QB compensation has changed drastically over the last ~5 years, you're not gonna bypass paying a QB top dollar if you want to be a legit contender. Several QBs get taken in R1 every year, most do not pan out. You need to hit an outlier to win a SB with a young QB. If our scouts are able to find a QB they believe in this year then we should acquire him.

 

[Peat]

*snip*
Several QBs get taken in R1 every year, most do not pan out. You need to hit an outlier to win a SB with a young QB. If our scouts are able to find a QB they believe in this year then we should acquire him.

This bit I think everyone agrees on. Everyone knows it's really hard to find the right quarterback and if you're pretty sure you've found him, you have to move.

I think the point of disagreement is on what they should do if they find a guy they like but don't think is stunning. Whether they should move now to be sure of having a prospect they like and start the seasoning process to be back in some sort of contention as quickly as possible, or whether they should wait as it increases the odds of being really in contention when they move.

 

[pistolpete11]

"Since 2010, 15 different quarterbacks have played in a Super Bowl. Tom Brady, Russell Wilson and Peyton Manning have played in multiple. And 12 of those 15 quarterbacks weren’t drastically underpaid."

I don't see how this is the conclusion. If you take out Brady and Manning, you're left with:

Mahomes (2.4%)
Foles (1%) / Wentz (3.6%)
Wilson (0.6%)
Flacco (6.6%)
Eli (11.7%)
Rodgers (uncapped year)
Brees (8.7%)

Jimmy G (10.6%)
Goff (4.3%)
Ryan (15.3%)
Newton (9.1%)
Wilson (0.6%)
Kaepernick (1%)
Ben (uncapped)


If you use their list from 2020, the 10th highest paid QB was Rodgers at 10.9%. Using that as the cutoff:

10 were mid-range to cheap QBs
2 were in the top paid range
2 were uncapped

Even if I give you Jimmy G since it was so close, that's still 9-3.

 

[pistolpete11]

This bit I think everyone agrees on. Everyone knows it's really hard to find the right quarterback and if you're pretty sure you've found him, you have to move.

I think the point of disagreement is on what they should do if they find a guy they like but don't think is stunning. Whether they should move now to be sure of having a prospect they like and start the seasoning process to be back in some sort of contention as quickly as possible, or whether they should wait as it increases the odds of being really in contention when they move.

Exactly.

I would also add that the time may come where they should reach for a QB that they like, but don't love. Now's just not the time. They have far too many holes all over the field. There are always caveats with BPA, but they need to get back to that now more than ever. Draft the BPA at O-line, QB, D-line, ILB, CB, maybe even S or OLB.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

I knew the numbers were bad but not this bad…

From Easy Ed’s article today:

There’s not one other quarterback drafted in the first round from No. 20 on since Marino who has made the Hall of Fame, although Rodgers is certainly headed there. No one else, other than Jackson, has made much of an impact.

Starting with Marino 39 years ago, there have been 19 quarterbacks drafted in the first round 20th or later. Unless the likes of Rex Grossman, Teddy Bridgewater, Brady Quinn, Tommy Maddox and Jim Harbaugh are your cup of tea, only the three mentioned above turned into the real deal — although Maddox and Harbaugh had their moments, and Tim Tebow had one (see Steelers-Broncos playoff game, 2011 season).

Basically confirms most thoughts around here that they should wait until next season to draft a QB… when they hopefully get a higher pick.

 

[Goalie_Bob]

I think most of the NFL feels the same way since that averages out to 1 pick every other year. Usually teams picking 20th or higher don’t need a QB.

 

[Knives and Tulips]

I think Daniel Jones just makes a lot of sense for us.

 

[OnMyOwn]

During challenging rookie season, Steelers' Pressley Harvin learns: 'It's OK to not be OK'

Nice read on Harvin. I hope he can rebound if we’re committed to keeping him.

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

During challenging rookie season, Steelers' Pressley Harvin learns: 'It's OK to not be OK'

Nice read on Harvin. I hope he can rebound if we’re committed to keeping him.

I commend him for coming back and punting well at KC. Because he looked like a wasted pick for a good spell

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

The beauty of not scheming to your players' abilities is that you will ALWAYS be able to subsequently blame failure on execution.

It's coaching malpractice to say we sucked because the players couldn't do what the coaches wanted. If you were interviewing candidates for HC and someone made that comment, the interview would be over.

I've been banging this drum for years - Tomlin has given us many nuggets of "wisdom" that show he's lazy, stupid and stubborn. That's the trifecta of unqualified incompetence.

It’s still 2008 in Mike’s World, and he hasn’t prioritized learning offensive concepts.

What’s funny is he had a quote in 2007, during a beat down of San Francisco…one of those rare games where he kept the heat on the entire time. “Let’s take them into deep water and drown them”.

That’s today’s NFL…you can never score enough points and the only time you think about turtling is if you can get to the two minute warning and your opponent is out of timeouts.

Mike Tomlin has forgotten that.

I saw a story where Minkah was upset the Chiefs were pouring it on with the pass to the LT and Kelce’s TD pass.

But he wasn’t upset at the Chiefs. He was upset at himself and the defense for “making Kansas City feel comfortable enough that they would call a TD pass to a guy with the number 73”.

He gets it. I don’t think Mike Tomlin ever will.

 

[bigdaddyk88]

The beauty of not scheming to your players' abilities is that you will ALWAYS be able to subsequently blame failure on execution.

It's coaching malpractice to say we sucked because the players couldn't do what the coaches wanted. If you were interviewing candidates for HC and someone made that comment, the interview would be over.

I've been banging this drum for years - Tomlin has given us many nuggets of "wisdom" that show he's lazy, stupid and stubborn. That's the trifecta of unqualified incompetence.

It’s still 2008 in Mike’s World, and he hasn’t prioritized learning offensive concepts.

What’s funny is he had a quote in 2007, during a beat down of San Francisco…one of those rare games where he kept the heat on the entire time. “Let’s take them into deep water and drown them”.

That’s today’s NFL…you can never score enough points and the only time you think about turtling is if you can get to the two minute warning and your opponent is out of timeouts.

Mike Tomlin has forgotten that.

I saw a story where Minkah was upset the Chiefs were pouring it on with the pass to the LT and Kelce’s TD pass.

But he wasn’t upset at the Chiefs. He was upset at himself and the defense for “making Kansas City feel comfortable enough that they would call a TD pass to a guy with the number 73”.

He gets it. I don’t think Mike Tomlin ever will.

How can you say Tomlin forget about scoring to many points when our offense has been bad since Haley got fired. There’s no schemes for what Ben was able to provide the last 2 seasons. There’s no schemes to make dJ not avoid contact and drop passes there’s no schemes the o line can run since the vet pro bowl RG screws up every game

 

[lastcupever75]

its odd the NHL figured out a way to limit the contracts of top players but the NFL still has these ridiculous salaries at the QB position

I wonder if the owners have ever tried proposing a percentage of cap being the highest salary anyone can earn. I could see every non QB voting for it since they'll get a bigger piece of nthe pie

 

[JTG]

its odd the NHL figured out a way to limit the contracts of top players but the NFL still has these ridiculous salaries at the QB position

I wonder if the owners have ever tried proposing a percentage of cap being the highest salary anyone can earn. I could see every non QB voting for it since they'll get a bigger piece of nthe pie

Ridiculous is in the eye of the beholder. The crazy dollar amounts are sort of on the surface. For instance, Mahomes average cap hit would be 45m per year if salary was guaranteed. His cap hit for 2022 is actually 17m. Basically what KC is saying is that they are on the hook for 141m over the course of his contract (14m average per year of a 200m+ cap). If he's making more than that, the Chiefs have to be winning.

The NFL needs to simplify the cap situation. That's the long and short of it.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

How can you say Tomlin forget about scoring to many points when our offense has been bad since Haley got fired. There’s no schemes for what Ben was able to provide the last 2 seasons. There’s no schemes to make dJ not avoid contact and drop passes there’s no schemes the o line can run since the vet pro bowl RG screws up every game

Amazing how they scored more points in way less time, 175 of 343, when Roth was running the offense.

It’s almost like it matters who is calling the plays - someone who knows how to run an offense and beat defenses vs someone who has zero experience doing it.

Maybe Tomlin should have hired a real, proven NFL OC instead of his son’s buddy who ran an offense that didn’t fit his QB.

Imagine something that well planned failing. It’s almost like Tomlin lacks the capacity to make sound hiring decisions… hmmmm.

About to fire his DC, Haley is a drunk coaching HS football, RF is out of the league, Canada just ran the worst offense in modern franchise history… nah, no real evidence there right?

 

[Joejosh999]

Not sure he lacks capacity to hire good Cs.
He doesn’t want to, cos he prefers to control the Cs.

 

[Al Smith]

Burrow >> Tannehill in case anyone was wondering.

 

[Empoleon8771]

The Bengals are going to make the AFC championship this year.

2022 is weird, man.

I also feel like this game is an example of how you can still win with a bad offensive line if you have a top QB and a lot of skill players around him.

 

[Andy99]

Always thought the Bengals were one of the top teams in the AFC, and were going to win this game

 

[Al Smith]

We'll never know, but Marvin Lewis would've found a way to lose to the Raiders last week.

 

[Smoke]

I've said it before and I'll say it again, Ryan Tannehill is terrible.

 

[Common Sense]

Burrow is a great player and leader, if the Bengals ever decide to construct an offensive line they will be Super Bowl contenders.

Lots of awful coaching decisions and backbreaking turnovers for Tennessee.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

I've said it before and I'll say it again, Ryan Tannehill is terrible.

More evidence as to why you need to draft and develop your own QB.

There is a reason he wasn’t wanted in Miami who has been desperate for a QB since Marino retired over 20 years ago.

These recycled QBs almost never work out and I hope the Steelers don’t get stuck in this never ending loop.

 

[Al Smith]

More evidence as to why you need to draft and develop your own QB.

There is a reason he wasn’t wanted in Miami who has been desperate for a QB since Marino retired over 20 years ago.

These recycled QBs almost never work out and I hope the Steelers don’t get stuck in this never ending loop.

The unfortunate thing is, IIRC, he was the preferred alternative to ugly bust Marcus Mariota. So there are multiple lessons in there.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

The unfortunate thing is, IIRC, he was the preferred alternative to ugly bust Marcus Mariota. So there are multiple lessons in there.

I never got the Mariota love, but I guess someone had to be drafted in 2015… one of the most god awful shitty pools of talent I can remember in all my years following the draft.

Ol’ Bud was probably one of the best picks of the first round believe it or not.