Speculation: The Offseason Conundrum

[Captain Controversy]

It does not matter if Bouchard can only have 0.50 PPG. It is about the roster makeup.

By my calculation, the Oilers will have around $26 M in cap space for next summer. The notable players that will need a contract will be Nugent-Hopkins, Yamamoto, Barrie, and Larsson. Here are there baseline numbers for me:

Nugent-Hopkins - $6 M
Barrie - $6 M
Yamamoto - $3.5 M
Larsson - $3.5 M

= $7 M leftover without factoring in the contracts for Khaira, Kahun, Ennis, and Haas:

Khaira - $1 M
Ennis - $1 M
Haas - $ 1M
= 4 M

How are we going to get address the other holes on our roster? If your answer is to buyout Neal, we will need to re-sign Nurse, Puljujarvi and Bear next offseason.

This ain't it.

Oilers roster next year.
Drai 8.5 McDavid 12.5 Yamamoto 3.5
Hall 6.25 Nuge 6.25 puljujarvi 1.175
Holloway 1, McLeod 1, Archibald 1.5
Khaira 1.5, Hass 1.5, ????

Nurse 5.6 - Barrie 5.25 ?
Lagasson 1 - Larsson 4.5
Samourukov 1 - Bouchard 1

Klefbom LTIR
Trade koskinen
Trade kassian
Buyout Neal
Trade Bear ?

Should have enough room to re-sign Barrie ?

 

[Fourier]

All teams will be shedding salary.

Lots of players will be available even some of ours.

We might be in a good position if some players can't get what they want or feel they're worth & decide they may as well go see what this McDrai thing is all about firsthand on some short deals. Especially if we make some noise in the playoffs.

It may not be true that all teams will be shedding salary so that good players are available. The big crunch was last year because the pandemic was unexpected. And yet while there were some bargains there really were not all that many impact players change teams.

Most teams have managed their cap already but for those that did not Seattle provides a convenient out. Moreover, the players teams will make available will be guys who are not living up to their deals. A team like the Oilers might get lucky but if they are counting on it to fill a hole it would be a mistake.

 

[XXIV97]

Oilers roster next year.
Drai 8.5 McDavid 12.5 Yamamoto 3.5
Hall 6.25 Nuge 6.25 puljujarvi 1.175
Holloway 1, McLeod 1, Archibald 1.5
Khaira 1.5, Hass 1.5, ????

Nurse 5.6 - Barrie 5.25 ?
Lagasson 1 - Larsson 4.5
Samourukov 1 - Bouchard 1

Klefbom LTIR
Trade koskinen
Trade kassian
Buyout Neal
Trade Bear ?

Should have enough room to re-sign Barrie ?

I am assuming that Klefbom is healthy. If Klefbom isn't, then Barrie could come back

 

[LTIR]

Having Bouchard on the squad will keep Barrie's demands from ballooning up. His agent cant ask for the moon knowing Oilers have an option B.

I dont think Barrie feels and talks like he is part of this core and talks like n outsider. Maybe its how the questions are worded.

In Holland we trust... I would be fine with extending Barrie and trading Bouchard if thats the worst case of extending him.

 

[belair]

I’m sorry, but I completely doubt you get near PPG production out of Bouchard for at least 4-5 seasons.

Defensemen enter their prime around 27-28 years old. You don’t waste prime McDavid and Draisaitl to roll the dice on players that are currently in over their heads at the NHL level. The dude can’t even get into a lineup against the Sens and you expect him to replace Barrie’s production. You’re setting the kid and the team up for failure.

This ain’t it.

In that instance, Edmonton probably returns to the 50/50 setup we ran in 16/17 and Larsson's minutes ramp up into the 22/23 minute territory. We'd be relying heavily on Bear rebounding with Nurse and Bouchard would see soft matchups as a bottom pairing D.

It's not improbable, but it's a significant step back unless Klefbom returns to that 16/17 version of himself.

This is why I'm not comfortable playing the waiting game with Ethan Bear. Living through the hiccups of this player's development has a direct impact on what this team ices in its top four moving forward. If that takes years, you're wasting the competitive window of your star players for the sake of a depth defenseman.

 

[McDNicks17]

I wouldn't mind re-signing Barrie and Larsson if affordable (only if Bear is moved in a deal for 2nd pair LHD or something), but they need to upgrade on RNH. The problem is, can they find one?

I don't think you necessarily need to upgrade on RNH with a single player.

Let's say you use his money to get a Hyman-esque winger that's a better fit with McDavid to improve at 5v5 and a good #3C to take the PK minutes and then fill his PP time internally(Yamo, Pulju or even Bouchard).

Assuming those guys do well on the PP(which I think they would just because they're right-handed shots), you're going to improve two lines without losing anything.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I'm still on the 'let Barrie walk' train.

Yes, his play has picked up after a slow start. Yes, he's been a revelation in the offensive zone. Yes, he leads the NHL in points on a new team. But he's still one-dimensional. He's not a great skater. He's getting older. And he's going to be expensive.

This is why I keep going back to trading Barrie before the deadline. Imagine if you could flip him for a legit top-4 LHD or a top pick (that could subsequently be spent on addressing our other areas of need). I know this is a touchy subject, but it feels like a missed opportunity when Barrie is playing so well.

Re-signing Barrie means we give up one of Larsson, Bear, or Bouchard. Evan is obviously out of the question, so it comes down to Bear and Larsson.

Does Bear have that much value? He's still relatively unproven, and his cap hit is much more manageable for what he would bring to the team. He hasn't had the greatest start this year, but when he was at the top of his game, he was definitely more WELL-ROUNDED than Barrie has been.

I'm also definitely not comfortable with going Barrie - Bouchard - Bear on the right side. Going that route is sacrificing defence for offence, and good defence wins championships. Larsson isn't an amazing skater by any means, but these 3 guys might all be worse in that department as well. We will need to bring Larsson back (or someone who plays like Larsson) to round out our d-corps.

Ultimately, I think Barrie will be far too expensive for what he brings, will hinder our options on defence moving forward (let's not even talk about what happens if Nurse regresses), and doesn't bring enough on the defensive side of the puck to justify keeping him, despite his gaudy point totals (a lot of which has come against Ottawa, mind you).

You don't pay Barrie just because of what his individual results are, you pay him because he's a transformative D within this young D stable that assists the development of puck support that is essential to our ideal team play. its not at all by accident that the Barrie season coincides with a radical increase in our D contributions and production.

Having a offensive talent D in the lineup does that, and its required. As @Oilhawks has stated recently we don't know what Barrie offers in practice or in games in teaching, modeling different ways to hold puck, move puck, whether it be EV or PP. On the ice at least I know Barrie is modeling skills to a young upcoming D core every game and being a solid team guy here.

That so many people here in this thread including OP consider him as a potential must sign, pretty much means he's been the most integral add we've seen with the club for several seasons. The only other even remotely in that Convo is Smith who transforms the competitiveness of this lineup and adds puck support that this offense requires to run smoothly.

When have we last even had this conversaion about extending a new player? i honestly can't even remember the last time people were very excited about a new player.

Yeah, you work to keep Barrie. I would look at only a 2-3yr time frame though. We don't need him longer than that. Important not to lock in too long or too much money.

 

[belair]

I don't think you necessarily need to upgrade on RNH with a single player.

Let's say you use his money to get a Hyman-esque winger that's a better fit with McDavid to improve at 5v5 and a good #3C to take the PK minutes and then fill his PP time internally(Yamo, Pulju or even Bouchard).

Assuming those guys do well on the PP(which I think they would just because they're right-handed shots), you're going to improve two lines without losing anything.

That's a very dangerous path to go down. A lot of assumptions being made and you're ultimately committing a lot of salary to an unknown player who plays a much more physical brand of hockey than the player you're replacing.

I've mentioned before in a previous thread that Hyman is the type of player in spades that this team should be looking to acquire. In addition to keeping RNH, preferably. Players like Hyman are the kind you work your ass off to find before they show consistent production and earn heavy pay raises.

Hyman this season is essentially what Pouliot was when he signed in Edmonton. Stay away from that contract.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

I'd like to see Holland take a big swing at Hamilton this offseason. The time is now, with McDrai in their primes so adding a #1 defenseman would be huge.

I'd be a scared of paying Barrie despite how much I like him as a player this year. He is playing some of his best hockey right now but he has massively inflated point totals and still has a lot of holes in his game.
I think a huge Hamilton contract (8 mil x 7 years) has less downside than a pretty big Barrie contract (6 mil x 6 years). I can see Oilernation turning on Barrie the moment he stops going PPG offensively and all thats left too watch is his underwhelming defensive play. Hamilton is better defensively, bigger, and currently plays in a pretty defensive system, I have no doubt he could quarterback the Oilers' PP with similar efficiency while still being a solid puck mover at 5v5.

The people in the "keep Barrie" camp are arguing he should be kept because he fills an offensive niche we've needed for years, but Hamilton could fill the same niche and we wouldn't have to overpay someone who is playing out of their mind in a contract year.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

Having Bouchard on the squad will keep Barrie's demands from ballooning up. His agent cant ask for the moon knowing Oilers have an option B.

I dont think Barrie feels and talks like he is part of this core and talks like n outsider. Maybe its how the questions are worded.

In Holland we trust... I would be fine with extending Barrie and trading Bouchard if thats the worst case of extending him.

I think Barrie's agent will ask for the moon and then advise him to sign with the Devils or something when he prices himself out of Edmonton. At Barrie's current rate he'd be pacing for a 66 point season (over 82 games) and is 3rd in scoring amongst Dmen.

I think people are underestimating what Barrie will be asking for if he keeps his pace up.

 

[Captain Controversy]

I think Barrie's agent will ask for the moon and then advise him to sign with the Devils or something when he prices himself out of Edmonton. At Barrie's current rate he'd be pacing for a 66 point season (over 82 games) and is 3rd in scoring amongst Dmen.

I think people are underestimating what Barrie will be asking for if he keeps his pace up.

He can pound sand. Lol
He will go to another team like the devils or another bottom feeder and his contract will be a P.K. Subban cap crusher.

 

[LTIR]

I think Barrie's agent will ask for the moon and then advise him to sign with the Devils or something when he prices himself out of Edmonton. At Barrie's current rate he'd be pacing for a 66 point season (over 82 games) and is 3rd in scoring amongst Dmen.

I think people are underestimating what Barrie will be asking for if he keeps his pace up.

And would NJ GM expect him to produce the same for him as he is doing currently with McDrai?
Secondary assists will be a factor.. His PP production will be a factor.
NJ wont just look at his point total stat line and open up the wallets.

If they scout him they will know how he is defensively and how Nurse is complimenting him and bailing him out.

Barrie would also factor in the McDrai factor and may take less in EDM if he is enjoying his role. Who knows whats happening in NJ with Subban as the top RHD.

 

[McDNicks17]

That's a very dangerous path to go down. A lot of assumptions being made and you're ultimately committing a lot of salary to an unknown player who plays a much more physical brand of hockey than the player you're replacing.

I've mentioned before in a previous thread that Hyman is the type of player in spades that this team should be looking to acquire. In addition to keeping RNH, preferably. Players like Hyman are the kind you work your ass off to find before they show consistent production and earn heavy pay raises.

Hyman this season is essentially what Pouliot was when he signed in Edmonton. Stay away from that contract.

RNH kind of feels like an unknown player right now too though. Is anyone confident in what kind of player we'll get from him next year and beyond? Do we get the DRY version? The decent #2C? The floating non-factor?

An RNH extension in that ~$7M range is going to be a huge risk, IMO.

 

[AddyTheWrath]

You don't pay Barrie just because of what his individual results are, you pay him because he's a transformative D within this young D stable that assists the development of puck support that is essential to our ideal team play. its not at all by accident that the Barrie season coincides with a radical increase in our D contributions and production.

Having a offensive talent D in the lineup does that, and its required. As @Oilhawks has stated recently we don't know what Barrie offers in practice or in games in teaching, modeling different ways to hold puck, move puck, whether it be EV or PP. On the ice at least I know Barrie is modeling skills to a young upcoming D core every game and being a solid team guy here.

That so many people here in this thread including OP consider him as a potential must sign, pretty much means he's been the most integral add we've seen with the club for several seasons. The only other even remotely in that Convo is Smith who transforms the competitiveness of this lineup and adds puck support that this offense requires to run smoothly.

When have we last even had this conversaion about extending a new player? i honestly can't even remember the last time people were very excited about a new player.

Yeah, you work to keep Barrie. I would look at only a 2-3yr time frame though. We don't need him longer than that. Important not to lock in too long or too much money.

2-3 year time frame is fine for us, but why does Barrie do that unless we overpay? And we're in no position to overpay, mind you. It's already been reported he received an offer for $6M/per and he turned that down for the one year deal to potentially make even more.

 

[McDNicks17]

To me, I get the feeling that "not losing him for nothing" plays a pretty heavy part in some people wanting to re-sign RNH.

Let's say he was a Florida Panther right now and about to hit UFA. Is he someone you would be targeting at $7M?

 

[CupofOil]

You don't pay Barrie just because of what his individual results are, you pay him because he's a transformative D within this young D stable that assists the development of puck support that is essential to our ideal team play. its not at all by accident that the Barrie season coincides with a radical increase in our D contributions and production.

Having a offensive talent D in the lineup does that, and its required. As @Oilhawks has stated recently we don't know what Barrie offers in practice or in games in teaching, modeling different ways to hold puck, move puck, whether it be EV or PP. On the ice at least I know Barrie is modeling skills to a young upcoming D core every game and being a solid team guy here.

That so many people here in this thread including OP consider him as a potential must sign, pretty much means he's been the most integral add we've seen with the club for several seasons. The only other even remotely in that Convo is Smith who transforms the competitiveness of this lineup and adds puck support that this offense requires to run smoothly.

When have we last even had this conversaion about extending a new player? i honestly can't even remember the last time people were very excited about a new player.

Yeah, you work to keep Barrie. I would look at only a 2-3yr time frame though. We don't need him longer than that. Important not to lock in too long or too much money.

This is the problem. He's having a huge offensive season and RHD are always a premium so there's just no way that he will settle for a 2-3 year deal. I fully believe that he only signed here to cash in big on his next deal and thus far that's mission accomplished for his self worth so unless the Oilers pony up which IMO will be something like the Krug deal (7 years $45M), perhaps a little less maybe in the 6 year $36M range, he's going to sign elsewhere. This is his last big deal, he'll probably want to make the most of it.

Here's my thing. If they commit to Barrie and obviously Nurse which should be something like the Trouba contract (7 years $56M), you are fully committing to that as your top pairing for the next half decade. Is that a Cup contending top pairing? I'm skeptical.
As much as I like what Barrie has brought, I'd be really nervous paying him top dollar especially with him nearing 30.

 

[AddyTheWrath]

This is the problem. He's having a huge offensive season and RHD are always a premium so there's just no way that he will settle for a 2-3 year deal. I fully believed that he only signed here to cash in big on his next deal and thus far that's mission accomplished for his self worth so unless the Oilers pony up which IMO will be something like the Krug deal (7 years $45M), perhaps a little less maybe in the 6 year $36M range, he's going to sign elsewhere. This is his last big deal, he'll probably want to make the most of it.

Here's my thing. If they commit to Barrie and obviously Nurse which should be something like the Trouba contract (7 years $56M), you are fully committing to that as your top pairing for the next half decade. Is that a Cup contending top pairing? I'm skeptical.

The answer is no.

I'd much rather go with a template of :

Nurse - Bear
X (Klefbom) - Larsson
Lagesson - Bouchard

Good mix of nasty shutdown defensemen and puck movers. Ideally X is someone who is a good skater, since neither Larsson or Bear are.

If we can get someone like Hamilton then forget Larsson.

 

[AddyTheWrath]

To me, I get the feeling that "not losing him for nothing" plays a pretty heavy part in some people wanting to re-sign RNH.

Let's say he was a Florida Panther right now and about to hit UFA. Is he someone you would be targeting at $7M?

No, but I'd comfortably pay him $6M to be our second best LWer who can also move to center in a pinch to reunite McDrai.

 

[Drivesaitl]

This is the problem. He's having a huge offensive season and RHD are always a premium so there's just no way that he will settle for a 2-3 year deal. I fully believe that he only signed here to cash in big on his next deal and thus far that's mission accomplished for his self worth so unless the Oilers pony up which IMO will be something like the Krug deal (7 years $45M), perhaps a little less maybe in the 6 year $36M range, he's going to sign elsewhere. This is his last big deal, he'll probably want to make the most of it.

Here's my thing. If they commit to Barrie and obviously Nurse which should be something like the Trouba contract (7 years $56M), you are fully committing to that as your top pairing for the next half decade. Is that a Cup contending top pairing? I'm skeptical.
As much as I like what Barrie has brought, I'd be really nervous paying him top dollar especially with him nearing 30.

This might be pessimistic. I've heard talk from Barrie himself that he wanted to be here, took a discount to be here (he did) and that he wanted to be a part of playing here and with McD and the upside here. With a smile on his face the whole time. Barrie has looked happy here to me, and he positively gushes about playing here in pressers, and on ice he looks at the McDrai plays with the wonder of a kid at Christmas.

This to me finally harkens back to the 80's where some skilled players wanted to be here, come here, and be part of being something special here.

I think he's interested in fitting in with the cap structure here. Maybe I'm dreaming. But I'm taking the players own statements and impressions at face value, I don't know him, I have no specific reason to doubt his own account.

That said I'm not buying any bridges if I seem to be gullible or naive here...

I'm shooting for optimism with this.

 

[Beerfish]

All I can say is that in no world ever should the Oilers prioritize Larsson over Barrie.

 

[CupofOil]

The answer is no.

I'd much rather go with a template of :

Nurse - Bear
X (Klefbom) - Larsson
Lagesson - Bouchard

Good mix of nasty shutdown defensemen and puck movers. Ideally X is someone who is a good skater, since neither Larsson or Bear are.

If we can get someone like Hamilton then forget Larsson.

Well, Nurse-Bear is far from a Cup contending top pairing and you lose a ton of offensive firepower with Barrie walking so that's the issue.
In this scenario, the template is if Barrie isn't re-signed...

Nurse-X
Lagesson or Bear-Larsson
Bear or Lagesson-Bouchard (I'm assuming that Jones is dealt or taken by Seattle)

I fully believe that the one big missing piece is a legit top pairing Dman, could be a strong #2 assuming that Nurse continues on this trajectory. It could be a #2 to anchor the Larsson pairing like Ekholm but they need that one really good Dman to round out the group. Barrie is too high event to be that guy especially in playoff scenarios BUT his offense is transformative like @Drivesaitl mentioned so there's the conundrum.

You sign him, you commit to him as your top pairing guy which is shaky but if you let him walk, you miss a lot of that offensive punch and it essentially turns into the offensively inept group it was in past years unless Bouchard goes supernova in the next few years (I'm skeptical of that too).
Can Columbus just give us Jones and make this decision easy for us. We'll protect Caleb in the expansion draft just for you Seth

 

[Drivesaitl]

2-3 year time frame is fine for us, but why does Barrie do that unless we overpay? And we're in no position to overpay, mind you. It's already been reported he received an offer for $6M/per and he turned that down for the one year deal to potentially make even more.

Because he's interested in being something special here with generational talent on a club that could conceivably win it all. I mean sometimes I go back to that being what its all about before just dollar bills became everything. Maybe because I'm older I still think there could be players that will take less to obtain more.

Barrie turned down the 6M (he says) because he wanted to come here and play with McDrai. Could that be strictly for contractual show me greed? Sure. Do I have to believe thats the case on March 14? no.

I'll pick a rarer position of being an optimist for 10pts Alex. Its not every instance i feel this way so I'll go with it.

But even if we could get Barrie at Nuge money I do that. Would prefer he take less to be here.

 

[CupofOil]

This might be pessimistic. I've heard talk from Barrie himself that he wanted to be here, took a discount to be here (he did) and that he wanted to be a part of playing here and with McD and the upside here. With a smile on his face the whole time. Barrie has looked happy here to me, and he positively gushes about playing here in pressers, and on ice he looks at the McDrai plays with the wonder of a kid at Christmas.

This to me finally harkens back to the 80's where some skilled players wanted to be here, come here, and be part of being something special here.

I think he's interested in fitting in with the cap structure here. Maybe I'm dreaming. But I'm taking the players own statements and impressions at face value, I don't know him, I have no specific reason to doubt his own account.

That said I'm not buying any bridges if I seem to be gullible or naive here...

I'm shooting for optimism with this.

I'm shooting for realism with this.
Tyson wants that cash money and doesn't care who gives it to him, like most players.

 

[AddyTheWrath]

Well, Nurse-Bear is far from a Cup contending top pairing and you lose a ton of offensive firepower with Barrie walking so that's the issue.
In this scenario, the template is if Barrie isn't re-signed...

Nurse-X
Lagesson or Bear-Larsson
Bear or Lagesson-Bouchard (I'm assuming that Jones is dealt or taken by Seattle)

I fully believe that the one big missing piece is a legit top pairing Dman, could be a strong #2 assuming that Nurse continues on this trajectory. It could be a #2 to anchor the Larsson pairing like Ekholm but they need that one really good Dman to round out the group. Barrie is too high event to be that guy especially in playoff scenarios BUT his offense is transformative like @Drivesaitl mentioned so there's the conundrum. You sign him, you commit to him as your top pairing guy which is shaky but if you let him walk, you miss a lot of that offensive punch and it essentially turns into the offensively inept group it was in past years unless Bouchard goes supernova in the next few years (I'm skeptical of that too).

Honestly I don't think Nurse - Bear has to be a true top pairing, depending on who's anchoring the LD spot on the second pair. This is especially true if Nurse keeps playing as he has and Bear can bounce back to last season form (significant assumptions, to be fair).

If Bear continues to struggle, you can always bump him down to 3RD and have Larsson or Bouchard play with Nurse.

In an ideal world, we go

Nurse - Hamilton
X - Bear
Lagesson - Bouchard

and fill in that 2LD spot with Klefbom or a similar defenseman if he doesn't come back.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I'm shooting for realism with this.
Tyson wants that cash money and doesn't care who gives it to him, like most players.

its all good. I don't know how to be an optimist, I don't know what i'm doing..