Speculation: The Offseason Conundrum

[AddyTheWrath]

Because he's interested in being something special here with generational talent on a club that could conceivably win it all. I mean sometimes I go back to that being what its all about before just dollar bills became everything. Maybe because I'm older I still think there could be players that will take less to obtain more.

Barrie turned down the 6M (he says) because he wanted to come here and play with McDrai. Could that be strictly for contractual show me greed? Sure. Do I have to believe thats the case on March 14? no.

I'll pick a rarer position of being an optimist for 10pts Alex. Its not every instance i feel this way so I'll go with it.

But even if we could get Barrie at Nuge money I do that. Would prefer he take less to be here.

Yea thats a bit optimistic for sure..

If he wanted to play with McDrai that badly, why not sign a long term contract from the start?

I mean, he could've grown to love the team so much in the past 30 games that he'll take a significant discount just to stay here but that's wishful thinking IMO. Which is fine, as long as you're honest about it.

 

[Captain Controversy]

It would be just filthy if Holland could work the magic and sign..

Nuge 5.25 million
Barrie 5.25 million
Hall 5.25 million

 

[McDNicks17]

Yea thats a bit optimistic for sure..

If he wanted to play with McDrai that badly, why not sign a long term contract from the start?

I mean, he could've grown to love the team so much in the past 30 games that he'll take a significant discount just to stay here but that's wishful thinking IMO. Which is fine, as long as you're honest about it.

Holland only had so much cap this year.

Long-term at $3.75M would definitely be a no-go. I don't think re-signing at something reasonable like $5-6M is out of the question now though.

 

[belair]

RNH kind of feels like an unknown player right now too though. Is anyone confident in what kind of player we'll get from him next year and beyond? Do we get the DRY version? The decent #2C? The floating non-factor?

An RNH extension in that ~$7M range is going to be a huge risk, IMO.

A player who plays a primary role in all situations is probably a long ways away from being a non-factor. 21 minutes a night on average.

Even in a season where he's being considered the 'non-factor' he's generating shots at an elite level--though he has cooled off recently--and he's on pace for over 60 points in an 82 game season.

I'm not convinced we're getting the best 'version' of this player, but I feel a lot more confident with him moving forward versus having to dip into the well, pulling out two 28+ year old players, paying them deep into their 30s.

RNH, Barrie, Larsson...these aren't depth guys we're looking at potentially losing this summer. They're integral pieces of our current depth chart and they're the cream of the free agent crop.

 

[CupofOil]

its all good. I don't know how to be an optimist, I don't know what i'm doing..

You shooting for optimism? Definitely weird times. I thought 2020 was over with all this weirdness

All joking aside, I really hope you're right and that Barrie would take a discount to do something special here as he'd be a perfect bridge Dman but I just don't see it after the season he's having. There will be a big market for him I'd imagine.
As I mentioned before, Holland has some incredibly tough decisions this offseason. It's arguably the most important Oilers offseason in decades.

 

[Drivesaitl]

You shooting for optimism? Definitely weird times. I thought 2020 was over with all this weirdness

All joking aside, I really hope you're right and that Barrie would take a discount to do something special here as he'd be a perfect bridge Dman but I just don't see it after the season he's having. There will be a big market for him I'd imagine.
As I mentioned before, Holland has some incredibly tough decisions this offseason. It's arguably the most important Oilers offseason in decades.

joking aside, and I'll maintain this throughout because its true, but the Barrie acqusition had me jumping from the outset. I don't jump very often these days..

like I say this was the biggest offseason add in several years. I think the last player I was this excited about that we acquired were Maroon, and Perron. I mean it goes back that far to me. I loved both of those players before they even got here.

Barrie was the reason i could hold optimism over this season, for all the reason you, I, others have related. Hasn't disappointed either in the sum effect Barrie has had here. I mean no team could ask for more.

As @McDNicks17 stated we didn't have the cap to sign him a reasonable longer term deal. That doesn't mean that he didnt have any interest in it.

I don't think the McDrai impression would be much different than my own.

Barrie represents the FIRST premium quality player this org brought in as an acquisition in the McDrai time clock. Larsson don't count because it was an asset loss trade.

Lucic doesn't count because he's not close to this level of quality or importance to a club.

What does it say to McDrai, and their contractual timeclock if the team doesn't resign the biggest acquisition they made for them.

If its not Barrie it had better be some other hot talent coming in. I think the org HAS to sign Barrie at this point and find a way to do that. This org has made far too many player mistakes to not sign Barrie. I mean for optics alone, i think they have to, to signal any willingness that this org is willing to put together a club to compete in the McDrai time frame.

 

[Spawn]

Sometimes I feel like i am taking crazy pills, or maybe I misremember the Barrie situation completely.

We are all on the same page that Barrie signed here for a cheap one year deal to play with McDavid and massively boost his value for a big contract no? Why cant we just enjoy Barries one great year her,e be happy we were the beneficiary, and then let another team be the one to give him that massive pay day.

How often does it work out well for the teams who signs a 29 year old to a long term deal after a career year in a contract year?

McDavid is an absolute blessing, but the curse is that he is so good that he inflates some players points so much and our GM is unable to seperate the true value of said player from McDavids impact. This happened with Chaisson & Kassian. Thankfully those were shorter deals. Barrie and Nurse (to a lesser degree) have potential to be much more disastrous because of the higher $ and term

There is a hell of a big difference between guys like Chiasson and Kassian and a guy like Barrie. Barrie has been one of the leagues top offensive d-men for 1/2 a decade. He has a long track record of producing this kind of offense. Chiasson and Kassian were waiver wire/try out fodder who found lightning in a bottle and produced unlike anything they had ever done before.

He's producing at a 65 point pace over 82 games right now. Exactly the kind of production he had in his last couple of seasons in Colorado.

 

[CupofOil]

joking aside, and I'll maintain this throughout because its true, but the Barrie acqusition had me jumping from the outset. I don't jump very often these days..

like I say this was the biggest offseason add in several years. I think the last player I was this excited about that we acquired were Maroon, and Perron. I mean it goes back that far to me. I loved both of those players before they even got here.

Barrie was the reason i could hold optimism over this season, for all the reason you, I, others have related. Hasn't disappointed either in the sum effect Barrie has had here. I mean no team could ask for more.

As @McDNicks17 stated we didn't have the cap to sign him a reasonable longer term deal. That doesn't mean that he didnt have any interest in it.

I don't think the McDrai impression would be much different than my own.

Barrie represents the FIRST premium quality player this org brought in as an acquisition in the McDrai time clock. Larsson don't count because it was an asset loss trade.

Lucic doesn't count because he's not close to this level of quality or importance to a club.

What does it say to McDrai, and their contractual timeclock if the team doesn't resign the biggest acquisition they made for them.

If its not Barrie it had better be some other hot talent coming in. I think the org HAS to sign Barrie at this point and find a way to do that. This org has made far too many player mistakes to not sign Barrie. I mean for optics alone, i think they have to, to signal any willingness that this org is willing to put together a club to compete in the McDrai time frame.

The caphit isn't the issue with me when it comes to Barrie, it's the term. I'd even be willing to go higher on the caphit to keep the term shorter, 3 years $6.5M per? 5-6 years is just too much of a commitment.

You could make the same argument for RNH in terms of McDrai's feelings about it. How would they feel if Holland let RNH walk because he didn't pay the premium for him? They clearly like RNH.

Ultimately, Holland has to do what's best for long term success and make his franchise players understand this. Is paying a long term premium for Barrie and RNH in the best long term interest for team success?

What's interesting about those two is coming into this season, RNH was riding a high and looking at big dollars while Barrie was at a low and had to settle for the short term deal. Now the roles are reversed. Will be interesting to see how it effects their market value and if there's a line in the sand Holland draws to sign one or both which I hope is the case as both are players that you have to be careful not to overpay on a long term deal.

 

[MessierII]

Well, Nurse-Bear is far from a Cup contending top pairing and you lose a ton of offensive firepower with Barrie walking so that's the issue.
In this scenario, the template is if Barrie isn't re-signed...

Nurse-X
Lagesson or Bear-Larsson
Bear or Lagesson-Bouchard (I'm assuming that Jones is dealt or taken by Seattle)

I fully believe that the one big missing piece is a legit top pairing Dman, could be a strong #2 assuming that Nurse continues on this trajectory. It could be a #2 to anchor the Larsson pairing like Ekholm but they need that one really good Dman to round out the group. Barrie is too high event to be that guy especially in playoff scenarios BUT his offense is transformative like @Drivesaitl mentioned so there's the conundrum.

You sign him, you commit to him as your top pairing guy which is shaky but if you let him walk, you miss a lot of that offensive punch and it essentially turns into the offensively inept group it was in past years unless Bouchard goes supernova in the next few years (I'm skeptical of that too).
Can Columbus just give us Jones and make this decision easy for us. We'll protect Caleb in the expansion draft just for you Seth

This is the same conundrum the avs were in with Barrie. You have to ask does Bouchard become the player we need him to be with Barrie here playing the exact role we ultimately want Bouchard in?

The avs traded Barrie and bet on Makar and it paid off. Will we make a similar bet on Bouchard? I personally would but if your not as high on Bouchard I understand why you wouldn’t.

 

[CupofOil]

This is the same conundrum the avs were in with Barrie. You have to ask does Bouchard become the player we need him to be with Barrie here playing the exact role we ultimately want Bouchard in?

The avs traded Barrie and bet on Makar and it paid off. Will we make a similar bet on Bouchard? I personally would but if your not as high on Bouchard I understand why you wouldn’t.

Bouchard isn't even close to a Makar thoug. If he was, this would make the decision a whole lot easier. They also had Girard who is underrated as a really good puckmoving D, the Oilers don't really have a guy like that either although Bear COULD be.

 

[MessierII]

Bouchard isn't even close to a Makar thoug. If he was, this would make the decision a whole lot easier. They also had Girard who is underrated as a really good puckmoving D, the Oilers don't really have a guy like that either although Bear COULD be.

Bouchard doesn’t have the overall potential of Makar but he’s the same type of D man and will require the same type of development.

 

[CupofOil]

Bouchard doesn’t have the overall potential of Makar but he’s the same type of D man and will require the same type of development.

I don't think they're similar at all. Makar is far more dynamic. You watch him play one time and you see right away that he's going to be an elite Dman.
Bouchard has some great qualities but he also has some very significant flaws that will have to be ironed out if he wants to be a consistently high level 20+ minute Dman. The potential is there but he's still a ways off and doesn't look ready to take on the 22+ minutes that Barrie fills.

It would have been nice if Bear built on last season and stuck on the Nurse pairing but him struggling through a wrench into those plans and thrust Barrie into that role and produced a real question mark on what Bear really is going forward. It's making the decision to part with Barrie harder because there's no sure thing to fill the void.

 

[MessierII]

I don't think they're similar at all. Makar is far more dynamic. You watch him play one time and you see right away that he's going to be an elite Dman.
Bouchard has some great qualities but he also has some very significant flaws that will have to be ironed out if he wants to be a consistently high level 20+ minute Dman. The potential is there but he's still a ways off and doesn't look ready to take on the 22+ minutes that Barrie fills.

It would have been nice if Bear built on last season and stuck on the Nurse pairing but him struggling through a wrench into those plans and thrust Barrie into that role and produced a real question mark on what Bear really is going forward. It's making the decision to part with Barrie harder because there's no sure thing to fill the void.

Makar and Bouchard are both offensive defensemen. Their end game role in the nhl is the exact same. The way you want to break them in is the exact same. Somewhat sheltered 4-5 D minutes at even strength no pk time and heavy pp time. That’s what Makar got last year. That’s what we need to give Bouchard if not next year for sure the year after.

 

[CupofOil]

Makar and Bouchard are both offensive defensemen. Their end game role in the nhl is the exact same. The way you want to break them in is the exact same. Somewhat sheltered 4-5 D minutes at even strength no pk time and heavy pp time. That’s what Makar got last year. That’s what we need to give Bouchard if not next year for sure the year after.

They're offensive defenseman, but they aren't the same type of Dman.
Colorado didn't ease Makar in either. He got thrust into a role right in the thick of the playoffs then was playing 21+ minutes in his rookie season and is now one of the TOI leaders in the league. He never played a 4-5 Dman role.

In any event, the Barrie void isn't a 4-5 Dman void, it's a #2 Dman void with heavy even strength minutes on a top pairing. Maybe Bouchard can fill that role down the road but it doesn't seem likely right off the bat. They were hoping that Bear would cement himself in that role but that won't seem likely anytime soon. It's a problem if they let Barrie walk especially since the Oilers need to contend next season, contend for real stuff not this bubble playoff team they are this season. If they let Barrie walk, they need to bring in a legit top 4 Dman to fill the role.

 

[MessierII]

They're offensive defenseman, but they aren't the same type of Dman.
Colorado didn't ease Makar in either. He got thrust into a role right in the thick of the playoffs then was playing 21+ minutes in his rookie season and is now one of the TOI leaders in the league. He never played a 4-5 Dman role.

I don’t know if your missing my point here or what is going on but Makar played 21 minutes because he was playing massive amounts of pp time. You seem to keep throwing out total minutes but ignoring the type of minutes those are which is more important. Ethan Bear played more minutes than Cale Makar and that was with next to no PP time for example.

In any event, the Barrie void isn't a 4-5 Dman void, it's a #2 Dman void with heavy even strength minutes on a top pairing. Maybe Bouchard can fill that role down the road but it doesn't seem likely right off the bat. They were hoping that Bear would cement himself in that role but that won't seem likely anytime soon. It's a problem if they let Barrie walk especially since the Oilers need to contend next season, contend for real stuff not this bubble playoff team they are this season. If they let Barrie walk, they need to bring in a legit top 4 Dman to fill the role.

I think Barrie is #4 PP guy. He’s not a huge even strength minute muncher. Again just last year Bear played similar overall minutes with next to no PP time. Barrie is clicking with Nurse which is great because Nurse is playing like a top 5 D in the nhl right now it’s not because Barrie is doing anything special.

 

[CupofOil]

I don’t know if your missing my point here or what is going on but Makar played 21 minutes because he was playing massive amounts of pp time. You seem to keep throwing out total minutes but ignoring the type of minutes those are which is more important. Ethan Bear played more minutes than Cale Makar and that was with next to no PP time for example.

I think Barrie is #4 PP guy. He’s not a huge even strength minute muncher. Again just last year Bear played similar overall minutes with next to no PP time. Barrie is clicking with Nurse which is great because Nurse is playing like a top 5 D in the nhl right now it’s not because Barrie is doing anything special.

Barrie is pushing the offense big time at even strength and it's having an effect on the whole D group and he's part of the reason why Nurse has emerged because Nurse now has a skilled guy that he can play off of. I don't think it's so easy to just throw Bear (who struggled even last year towards the end) or Bouchard up there and expect the same results.

Next season has to be a "next step" season and in order for that to happen, they can't afford to throw maybes up the top of the lineup. I wouldn't want them to overpay Barrie on a long term deal but his replacement can't be Bear or Bouchard, they need to find a proven upgrade somewhere or else it could be a sideways season with a lot of "hopes and prayers" that the defense holds up. Need more sure things in the lineup next season with the newfound cap flexibility.

 

[MessierII]

Barrie is pushing the offense big time at even strength and it's having an effect on the whole D group and he's part of the reason why Nurse has emerged because Nurse now has a skilled guy that he can play off of. I don't think it's so easy to just throw Bear (who struggled even last year towards the end) or Bouchard up there and expect the same results.

Next season has to be a "next step" season and in order for that to happen, they can't afford to throw maybes up the top of the lineup. I wouldn't want them to overpay Barrie on a long term deal but his replacement can't be Bear or Bouchard, they need to find a proven upgrade somewhere or else it could be a sideways season with a lot of "hopes and prayers" that the defense holds up. Need more sure things in the lineup next season with the newfound cap flexibility.

I agree we need to take a step forward next year but with the 6+ mil and however many years it would take to retain Barrie I just don’t see it being worth it. Keep our young cost controlled guys on the right and bet on players in their 20’s, don’t pay a guy going into his 30’s for what he did in his 20’s. Thats how you end up with bad contracts in this league. I’d rather shore up the left. If Klef returns that problem solves itself but if he doesn’t I’d look to bring in a guy like Alec Martinez for 2-3 years to give Broberg and Samurokov time. Someone like that would come cheaper than Barrie and would balance out our left and right sides better. We’d have more room to look for a scoring winger and a goalie.