HF Habs: The official 2023-2024 tank thread

[Miller Time]

Major cherry picking.

Not if you understand the point being made.

 

[Miller Time]

I was all onboard with your takes on the importance for the future core to be performing at this time of year. Last game, Philly was fighting for a playoffs spot, it was the highest pressured game in which the Habs played in over a year. The Habs have a fortunate calendar this year in this regard, a lot of teams are prepping for the playoffs. Seeing the players develop through this level of competition is worth a 1 or 2 position drop in the draft imo.

I don't buy too much into the "outside the top 10 narrative", since history proves that higher picks tend to perform better.

Exception made for picks 11 and 14, which statistically are better than picks 8 and 10

Soutce: https://morehockeystats.com/drafts/pickstats

The "exception" you referenced is the point.

Picking higher is better.
And.
There are always going to be players picked lower that end up better than players picked ahead of them.

Both statements are true. The flawed argument I was bringing attention to is assuming that a higher pick guarantees a better player. That's just not true.

 

[26Mats]

Difference between picking 5th and 9th could be the forward they were targeting vs settling on one the remaining defenseman...

I don't need points to Slaf and Suzuki to know they've continued their strong play.

Or the forward remaining versus the forward they were targeting.

 

[WinterLion]

I don't think anyone that has been following this years draft is that worried about a spot or two between 6-8

 

[GrandmaCookie]

Or the forward remaining versus the forward they were targeting.

Or the forward remaining vs the defenseman they were targeting.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

As our young core improves they'll win more games. If that improvement is manifesting now, should the Habs actively prevent it? Should they sit Suzuki, Slafkovsky, Guhle, Newhook, etc.? And what if they bring up AHL players who over-perform, like last year with RHP and Pezetta?

How much micromanaging should we do to engineer our draft position?

It's a given everyone wants to draft as early as possible. Hughes positioned the roster in that direction by trading Monahan. Now his job is to get out of the way and let the young core steer the ship before adding another key player this summer. I don't see any benefit to hobbling the team for the sake of moving up one or two draft spots. You can't make your team lose any more than you can make other teams win.

Yep, we shouldn’t do anything to change the draft position. We’ll do how we do. We’ve already traded away guys like Monahan to get picks and lowering our standing position anyway. MSL isn’t going to start benching guys for a higher pick. The “good” news is we have some tough teams coming up anyway.

As for hoping for losses vs a pick - sure, people can knock themselves out in that one. No doubt it’s more important to get a higher pick than for us to play great hockey in the last 8 games of the year. It’s always better to pick higher. Good news again though is that it’s a good draft to have a top ten no matter what.

I’m just going to enjoy the games.

 

[Rapala]

I appreciate the take, but IMO it it too shortsighted and incorrect.

The difference in just 1 spot could potentially be a home run for us.

I am not worried about Slaf or Suzuki at all, as they have PLENTY of time to grow and gain confidence and experience - it doesn't need to be in the last few games of this season that they need to rack up points/wins or else.

In other words, them racking up wins/pts in these last few games won't change much in the grand scheme of things, whereas us picking 5th VS 10th+ could be franchise altering...

The difference in one spot could also save us from selecting a player who doesn't live up to his billing because he's no longer on the board.
This game can be played two ways. The consensus is there is not a lot of separation between 5-10 and I would tend to agree with that.
But WTF do I know it's still a crap shoot until you can develop these kids in a pro league.

 

[26Mats]

Or the forward remaining vs the defenseman they were targeting.

Well Martin Lapointe is on record saying this year could be a good draft for us because with all the good dmen, a really good forward could fall to us.

But for sure, what you say could be the scenario. Really hoping we finish 5th last and from there have good luck in the lottery.

I don't think anyone that has been following this years draft is that worried about a spot or two between 6-8

I want 5th overall or to win the lottery. But yes it seems like a good year to fall to 8th instead of drafting 5th. As lists are all over the place.

But pre draft lists aside, the only thing that matters is whether or not in 10 years we look back and HuGo say, man we were targetting x player and they went one or two spots ahead of us, so we had to settle for player y who ended up busting.

 

[Ezpz]

We've matched our points from last year in ten less games. It's fine to go 1-9 now and say we made progress.

 

[Habs]

please just take BPA whatever position it is

 

[26Mats]

Hopefully Carolina spanks us tonight.

 

[Tyson]

Hopefully Carolina spanks us tonight.

What does that mean? A severe beat down? I doubt they win any of the next 3 games but I hope they are good, competitive games
.

 

[26Mats]

please just take BPA whatever position it is

Will be more than 6 good forwards and 6 good dmen available. Wonder if we can get one with our pick and one with a move up from the Jets pick.

Forwards: Celebrini, Demidov, Lindstrom, Eiserman, Catton, Iginla
Dmen: Levshunov, Buium, Yakemchuck Parekh, Silayev, Dickinson

What does that mean? A severe beat down? I doubt they win any of the next 3 games but I hope they are good, competitive games
.

A convincing win where my heart can rest assured during the match we won't be endangering ourselves of picking 10th.

For sure a competitive game where we lose in regulation is ideal. But my blood pressure wants a break for one game.

 

[WeThreeKings]

What does that mean? A severe beat down? I doubt they win any of the next 3 games but I hope they are good, competitive games
.

I could use a game or two where there's no doubt they're going to lose.

 

[LaP]

Sens winning tonight is so important. Anybody got a voodoo doll or something? If they win it's two birds with one stone. Jets continue to sink and Sens keep their position.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

NYR @ Arizona. Coyotes are actually 6-4 in last 10, generally play much better at home, and do reasonably well against the Rangers. Hopefully they pick up at least a point, because we're definitely losing against Carolina. A tie goes to Montreal based on gp (1 in hand), but once that equalizes tie breaker goes to Arizona based on RWs, and we'll end up 5th.

Senators @ Jets. Senators are 7-3-0 in last 10, while Jets are 4-5-1. Jets are slumping hard since the ASB. Ottawa is on a late run per usual. An Ottawa win helps both Montreal's picks in 2024 draft. It's possible for Winnipeg to fall to #22!

Calgary hosts the LAKs, as long as Montreal loses Flames will maintain their 3 pt advantage. Flames have been complete shit lately: 2-8-0. Only Sharks & Blue Jackets have a worst record than Calgary over the last 10 games. They're falling hard.

 

[26Mats]

Sens winning tonight is so important. Anybody got a voodoo doll or something? If they win it's two birds with one stone. Jets continue to sink and Sens keep their position.

I'm starting to get excited about that Jets pick as they are reeling and other teams are skyrocketing (Edmonton, Nashville, Tampa, Toronto, Avs, Dallas, Vegas, Carolina, NYR).

Unfortunately we have no control over tonight's game.

 

[Miller Time]

please just take BPA whatever position it is

Agreed... & if it's a toss up, the positional preference of fwd breaking the tie makes sense imo

 

[River Meadow]

@River Meadow

2015
3OA Dylan Strome

10OA Rantanen
16OA Barzal
17OOA Connor

2016
4OA Jesse Puljarvi

7OA Keller
14OA Macavoy
26OA T. Thompson


2017
6OA Cody Glass

13OA Nick Suzuki
20OA R. Thomas
39OA J.Robertson

2018
3OA Kotkaniemi

4OA B. Tkachuk
7OA Q.Hughes
12OA Dobson


2019
5OA Alex Turcotte

6OA M.Seider
12OA M.Boldy
15OA Goal Caufield

Getting the pick right and getting the development right are far more important variables than draft spot.

"Let me cherry pick the worst players picked early in recent drafts and the best players picked in the early to mid first round to prove my point".

You should add some 7th round drafted Hall of famers while you're at it.

As our young core improves they'll win more games. If that improvement is manifesting now, should the Habs actively prevent it? Should they sit Suzuki, Slafkovsky, Guhle, Newhook, etc.? And what if they bring up AHL players who over-perform, like last year with RHP and Pezetta?

How much micromanaging should we do to engineer our draft position?

It's a given everyone wants to draft as early as possible. Hughes positioned the roster in that direction by trading Monahan. Now his job is to get out of the way and let the young core steer the ship before adding another key player this summer. I don't see any benefit to hobbling the team for the sake of moving up one or two draft spots. You can't make your team lose any more than you can make other teams win.

No we can't do that.

I'm just saying it sucks we keep getting points, I would much rather we didn't get points.

please just take BPA whatever position it is

It's Montreal..

So you mean... please just take Best Character Available, right?

 

[McGees]

Some logic here…
Kucherov was picked 58th overall so we should just trade our 1st for the 58th pick.

 

[River Meadow]

Some logic here…
Kucherov was picked 58th overall so we should just trade our 1st for the 58th pick.

Miller Time... is that you?

 

[LaP]

A loss tonight and the tank is back on track

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

@River Meadow

2015
3OA Dylan Strome

10OA Rantanen
16OA Barzal
17OOA Connor

2016
4OA Jesse Puljarvi

7OA Keller
14OA Macavoy
26OA T. Thompson


2017
6OA Cody Glass

13OA Nick Suzuki
20OA R. Thomas
39OA J.Robertson

2018
3OA Kotkaniemi

4OA B. Tkachuk
7OA Q.Hughes
12OA Dobson


2019
5OA Alex Turcotte

6OA M.Seider
12OA M.Boldy
15OA Goal Caufield

Getting the pick right and getting the development right are far more important variables than draft spot.

Been saying this for years.

 

[Miller Time]

"Let me cherry pick the worst players picked early in recent drafts and the best players picked in the early to mid first round to prove my point".

You should add some 7th round drafted Hall of famers while you're at it.


I think you missed the point.
It only takes one occurrence to invalidate your argument. I provide additional examples to highlight just how common it is.

It really is so obvious it shouldn't even be a talking point.




No we can't do that.

I'm just saying it sucks we keep getting points, I would much rather we didn't get points.



It's Montreal..

So you mean... please just take Best Character Available, right?

apparently you can't follow your own argument.

Miller Time... is that you?

Reading is hard I guess.

Some logic here…
Kucherov was picked 58th overall so we should just trade our 1st for the 58th pick.

Yup, that's about the level of logic at play here. Reading comprehension isnt a strong suit for some I suppose.

 

[CHwest]

The "exception" you referenced is the point.

Picking higher is better.
And.
There are always going to be players picked lower that end up better than players picked ahead of them.

Both statements are true. The flawed argument I was bringing attention to is assuming that a higher pick guarantees a better player. That's just not true.

A higher pick means you get the player you covet, not leftovers, not that there is anything wrong with leftovers. Some of them turn out awesome or you may end up with your player anyway.