Speculation: The Official 2013 "Will Tlusty score 20 goals" Hyper-Train Mega Thread

[tarheelhockey]

I think some people see what they want to see.

In this case, I think statistics can pretty reliably tell us what's really happening in terms of who's creating for who.

Tlusty has 10 assists.
Staal has 28 assists.
Semin has 28 assists.

I'd say the true ratio of "good offensive plays resulting in goals" is closer to 21:28:22 (just throwing out a number).

And I'm not saying someone else would be effective in that spot. I'm just saying Tlusty's season is a beneficiary of circumstances to some degree. Not to the degree that the toronto people are insinuating, but still to some degree.

I agree, and everyone else probably does to an extent. Clearly he isn't driving his line singlehandedly. But, it's just as important to note that he's been contributing important offensive elements that make his line complete. A lot of the time it gets reduced to squishy talk of "chemistry" and "clicking", but Tlusty is consistently doing actual tangible things to get pucks past goalies. It's tough to say his stats are inflated when he's directly participating in goals without generating points.

 

[StormCast]

Serious analysis: I think this was very correct for the first 20 games or so this season. Jiri was the third man high, always back on defense and the last to exit the defensive zone. 3rd wheel was very fair.

Now, I've noticed that he has been partaking a lot more offensive liberty than previous in the season. He'll drop below to attack the net (which he does often), he forechecks well and has started to play a puck possession game. Teams began to lock down on him, and that in turn opened up space for Staal and Semin to operate.

His impressive season has a lot to do with Staal and Semin, but that's one part of the analysis. The other part is that Tlusty is a valuable member of the 1st line. Remember when Muller tried Dwyer, then LaRose there? Nothing happened, so it's fair to say that it's not just those two that are making Tlusty. He's willing to crash the net, and has the hands, speed, instincts and shot to make it count. I've noticed that he will always draw attention from the defensemen in front of the net.

Nothing happened with Dwyer and LaRose because they are two primary non-finishers. Tlusty is a very good finisher however and deserves credit for it.

As far as the bolded parts, teams are not keying on Tlusty or trying to lock him down. That's just not the case. And any forward will draw attention from the D if they're in front of the net, unless it's the Carolina D.

 

[tarheelhockey]

As far as the bolded parts, teams are not keying on Tlusty or trying to lock him down. That's just not the case. And any forward will draw attention from the D if they're in front of the net, unless it's the Carolina D.

Exactly. Spot on.

This talk of linemates, it's a two-way street. Clearly it benefits Tlusty to play on the top line with Staal and Semin. Replace Tlusty with, say, Skinner or Jordan -- watch the results for a couple of weeks -- and then ask, how much does it benefit Staal and Semin to play with Tlusty?

 

[WhiteTrashAmerican]

I guess you could say Tlusty has been tearing it up this season.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I guess you could say Tlusty has been tearing it up this season.

Yes, you could say that.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

Nothing happened with Dwyer and LaRose because they are two primary non-finishers. Tlusty is a very good finisher however and deserves credit for it.

As far as the bolded parts, teams are not keying on Tlusty or trying to lock him down. That's just not the case. And any forward will draw attention from the D if they're in front of the net, unless it's the Carolina D.

Jiri Tlusty is the greatest Czech player to never have a mullet.

I am rite. U r wrong.

 

[tomdundo]

Jiri Tlusty is the greatest Czech player to never have a mullet.

I am rite. U r wrong.

Tlusty had two goals against Boston. Jagr only had a secondary assist. Tlusty>>Jagr.

 

[Identity404]

We need to convince Phoenix that Jiri Tlusty will be unstoppable with fellow countryman Radmin Vrbata and Trade him for OEL before he is exposed as a cog in the top line. He won't be covered with staal semin forever

 

[AD Skinner]

We need to convince Phoenix that Jiri Tlusty will be unstoppable with fellow countryman Radmin Vrbata and Trade him for OEL before he is exposed as a cog in the top line. He won't be covered with staal semin forever

I lol'ed.

 

[Anton Babchuk]

Of course it's a fluke season. He has an 18.4 shooting % and 4 of his goals are empty netters.

He'll score at most 25 goals next year.

 

[Oenatzu]

We need to convince Phoenix that Jiri Tlusty will be unstoppable with fellow countryman Radmin Vrbata and Trade him for OEL before he is exposed as a cog in the top line. He won't be covered with staal semin forever

Wait untill these photos end up in the internet.

 

[StormCast]

Of course it's a fluke season. He has an 18.4 shooting % and 4 of his goals are empty netters.

He'll score at most 25 goals next year.

Then it'll be "what wrong with Jiri?"

Then he'll be the new whipping boy.

Then all will be right with the HFB world.

 

[Anton Babchuk]

Then it'll be "what wrong with Jiri?"

Then he'll be the new whipping boy.

Then all will be right with the HFB world.

When Tlusty doesn't score 40 next year it will be the fault of Muller's coaching or Staal's leadership

 

[What the Faulk]

If Tlusty scores 25, I'll be thrilled. I would have been happy to see him as a 25/25 guy in a normal season, even if he is playing with Eric and Semin.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

When Tlusty doesn't score 40 next year it will be the fault of Muller's coaching or Staal's leadership

It'll be JR's fault for sending Wallace down and not tiring out the opposing D.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

If Tlusty scores 25, I'll be thrilled. I would have been happy to see him as a 25/25 guy in a normal season, even if he is playing with Eric and Semin.

I agree. He has a solid all around game and I'd be thrilled if he could consistently put up offense like that.

 

[WWAD]

I don't get all the love in this thread for a Hurricane who can't even dive properly.

 

[tomdundo]

I don't get all the love in this thread for a Hurricane who can't even dive properly.

He certainly can dive. It's part of the workouts Friesen has them do. Tlusty just tries to make the whole dive scheme seem less obvious, of course.