Speculation: The Official 2013 "Will Tlusty score 20 goals" Hyper-Train Mega Thread

[Finlandia WOAT]

Jiri Tlusty, previously best known for his 12 game point streak, is currently on a tear with a team leading 19 goals (his jersey number) in only 41 games, and currently sits at 9th overall in goals this season. That's 40 goal pace, maybe!

The question on everyone's mind is, will he be able to hit 20 goals in this shortened season?

This arbitrary bench mark will solidify Tlusty as a sure thing, no doubt about it 40 goal scorer in this League.

What the hockey community thinks about Tlusty:

Assets: Is creative with the puck, and has both playmaking and finishing skills. Is also sound defensively. Can play either wing position. Owns a strong lower base.
Flaws: Struggles in physical contests, since he is somewhat soft. Has been accused of playing too much of a peripheral game. Lacks consistency in all areas.

No he wouldn't. We don't have Eric Staal. If he were here [in Toronto] he'd be on the 3rd line at best.

One thing is certain: we have a first line forward getting paid 1.4 million next year. Jir Tlusty will go to RFA, where he will get a 6.5 million dollar offersheet from Jay Feaster.

Can Jiri continue his unprecedented dominance next year and lead the 'Canes to the playoffs? Discuss.

Click to read more...

 

[Buenos Necas]

One thing is certain: we have a first line forward getting paid 1.4 million next year. Jir Tlusty will go to RFA, where he will get a 6.5 million dollar offersheet from Jay Feaster.

Jiri will hold out as an RFA, and play in the Czech league before Feaster signs him to the offer sheet. The Hurricanes will have gone winless up till this point, and in a fleeting moment of genius, JR will take the picks, and the Flames will then be forced to put Jiri on waivers since he played overseas during the regular season, where he will be promptly claimed by the Canes. JR will then proclaim that we like our group, and the team will put together a couple nice winning streaks, and be in the playoff hunt around late February. The deadline will come and go, and JR will stay pat, explaining that the deals simply weren't there. The team will then go on to finish in 9th place, losing in game 82 to the Washington Capitals who will then surpass us, taking 4th place in the new Atlantic division by 1 point. Not wanting to break up the only good line on the team, Jiri will receive a 7 year extension at 8.25 mil a year, forcing JR to trade Justin Faulk after giving him a Ryan Suter contract the previous summer. JR will then sign Joe Corvo, to replace Faulk's offense and rebuild our defense.

This is Carolina Hurricanes hockey.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

I think it's pretty clear we've got a HOF caliber player on our hands here. The real question is, will he retire as the greatest player of all-time?

 

[the halleJOKEL]

I picked other because he is the Czech version of Anton Babchuk playing the forward position.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Next week: The Official 2013 "Will Tlusty score 30 goals" Hyper-Train Mega Thread

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Fluke player. Next year, he'll have 40 points and be relegated to the third line after ****ing up way too many times next to Semin and Staal

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

Fluke player. Next year, he'll have 40 points and be relegated to the third line after ****ing up way too many times next to Semin and Staal

Didn't you argue this last year?

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Didn't you argue this last year?

Possibly. I argue a lot of things. But I figured with the amount of sarcasm already in this thread, adding to my post wouldn't be necessary.

Was I wrong?

 

[Roboturner913]

Hardest-working player on the team. It's nice to see him getting rewarded, at the same time I almost don't want to see him score so much because it's just going to drive up his asking price. Yet another reason they have to get rid of a big contract.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

Possibly. I argue a lot of things. But I figured with the amount of sarcasm already in this thread, adding to my post wouldn't be necessary.

Was I wrong?

You make a sarcastic thread, then can't tell sarcasm in the first 5 posts.

I'm going to bed.

Also, I'm never sarcastic. Jiri Tlusty is the best hockey player since I watched Jamie Benn finish a 3-on-1 earlier this evening.

 

[Lazyking]

When Fats is FORCED out of Caniac country, I think this board will finally have a new meme for usernames.

All hail Slutty!

 

[Ole Gil]

Hardest-working player on the team. It's nice to see him getting rewarded, at the same time I almost don't want to see him score so much because it's just going to drive up his asking price. Yet another reason they have to get rid of a big contract.

Hardest working player on the team? Staal and Semin draw all the attention, have to protect the puck from double teams, battle along the boards, and then create the offense.

Tlusty goes to the net, and shoots/deflects the puck. As a 3rd wheel, he has very good instincts, and a good shot. But his success is based on others creating the space for him with their hard work.

I like Jiri for 15-20 goals in a normal NHL situation. Playing with Staal and Semin, 25-30 seems about right. More wouldn't surprise me, but it really is dependent on Staal and Semin.

 

[the halleJOKEL]

Tlusty is killer on the forecheck. You are definitely selling his contributions to that line way short.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

He might be selling it short a bit, but it's fair to say he's a complementary player on that line, still an important piece though. In addition to going in on the forecheck and driving to the net, he is also very defensively responsible which allows Staal and Semin to have a bit more freedom to take chances offensively because of that. Not to mention he's a guy that Staal seems to have developed some chemistry with and there's something to be said for that.

I agree with Wally's estimates though. Put him on a 3rd line where he has to carry more load and I'd guess he's a 15-20G player. In the role he's in now, 25-30 on a regular basis would be my guess.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

Hardest working player on the team? Staal and Semin draw all the attention, have to protect the puck from double teams, battle along the boards, and then create the offense.

Tlusty goes to the net, and shoots/deflects the puck. As a 3rd wheel, he has very good instincts, and a good shot. But his success is based on others creating the space for him with their hard work.

I like Jiri for 15-20 goals in a normal NHL situation. Playing with Staal and Semin, 25-30 seems about right. More wouldn't surprise me, but it really is dependent on Staal and Semin.

Serious analysis: I think this was very correct for the first 20 games or so this season. Jiri was the third man high, always back on defense and the last to exit the defensive zone. 3rd wheel was very fair.

Now, I've noticed that he has been partaking a lot more offensive liberty than previous in the season. He'll drop below to attack the net (which he does often), he forechecks well and has started to play a puck possession game. Teams began to lock down on him, and that in turn opened up space for Staal and Semin to operate.

His impressive season has a lot to do with Staal and Semin, but that's one part of the analysis. The other part is that Tlusty is a valuable member of the 1st line. Remember when Muller tried Dwyer, then LaRose there? Nothing happened, so it's fair to say that it's not just those two that are making Tlusty. He's willing to crash the net, and has the hands, speed, instincts and shot to make it count. I've noticed that he will always draw attention from the defensemen in front of the net.

Sarcasm: Get off my man ******.

 

[AhoLottaLove]

I chose the anson carter comparison. A player with no real skill who leeches off his superior linemates to get garbage tap in goals that any plug with a stick on the ice will get. Phantom secondary assists(many of them accidental). Sounds about right.

 

[tarheelhockey]

I chose the anson carter comparison. A player with no real skill who leeches off his superior linemates to get garbage tap in goals that any plug with a stick on the ice will get. Phantom secondary assists(many of them accidental). Sounds about right.

Except that's not what Tlusty does, at all.

 

[AhoLottaLove]

Guess I did need the

 

[Ole Gil]

I don't want to give the impression I'm down on Tlusty. He's a great fit on that wing. His ability to finish and defensive responsibility is very very important in complimenting what Staal and Semin do.

But realistically, guys like him, kunitz, dupuis, and such are going to have inflated stats. Not "Can't break into Toronto's starting line up" inflated, but he's probably closer to 20 goal scorer in a full season than a 40 goal scorer.

My sole point was that the heaviest lifting is done by Eric Staal, despite what the plethora of sports psychologists on the boards want to believe.

 

[the halleJOKEL]

20 goals in half a season = 20 goals in a full season

EDIT - Secondary assists are worth half a primary assist, so Couture won the Calder.

 

[Roboturner913]

But his success is based on others creating the space for him with their hard work.

Adamantly disagree. In fact, I see a lot of Staal/Semin chances resulting from Tlusty battling along the boards and digging in the corners to get pucks, and being nearly impossible to get off the puck once he has it. I also see him creating quite a few turnovers on the backcheck. If any old player could be successful on that line then somebody else would have been by now.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Guess I did need the

Yep.

 

[Ole Gil]

I think some people see what they want to see.

In this case, I think statistics can pretty reliably tell us what's really happening in terms of who's creating for who.

Tlusty has 10 assists.
Staal has 28 assists.
Semin has 28 assists.

And I'm not saying someone else would be effective in that spot. I'm just saying Tlusty's season is a beneficiary of circumstances to some degree. Not to the degree that the toronto people are insinuating, but still to some degree.

 

[Roboturner913]

I think some people see what they want to see.

In this case, I think statistics can pretty reliably tell us what's really happening in terms of who's creating for who.

Tlusty has 10 assists.
Staal has 28 assists.
Semin has 28 assists.

And I'm not saying someone else would be effective in that spot. I'm just saying Tlusty's season is a beneficiary of circumstances to some degree. Not to the degree that the toronto people are insinuating, but still to some degree.

To some degree, of course. Anybody would be. I'm not usually much for stats, but I'd like to see how many goals Tlusty scored that were a result of a play he made, ie. winning a puck battle or keeping a cycle going with a d-man draped all over him, or stripping the puck away from the other team and getting it back deep, then ending up with the puck on his stick a pass or two later. I would guess quite a few.

There's something about the Czech style of play that is very valuable in the NA game, but doesn't necessarily always translate to a stat sheet. Tlusty is very typical of that.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I can't believe there is even a question if Tlusty is benefiting from being on that line. Yes, he's a good "glue" player that complements that line well, and not just anyone could do what he does on that line, but he is definitely benefiting from Staal and Semin getting most of the focus. And that's not a bad thing. He's doing his job, doing a lot of little things to make that line successful, getting his opportunities and making the most of them. Exactly what we'd want from him.