Sorry to be optimistic about the state of the team but we're not too far away from establishing a sustainable contender. Starting with coaching and systems, this team is rarely outchanced and even less frequently outworked. The prospects pool looks amazing... how often do you pick up a #1 overall caliber player and have him fight for the #1 spot in your prospects pool? In just the past 2 years we've seen guys like Brown establish themselves as realistic NHL options while continuing to add complimentary pieces like Leipsic, Corrado and Brennan. The upcoming draft will let us acquire another 1 or 2 significant pieces. And while all of it's happening, any number of our swings for the fences should result in a triple or a homerun.
I guess it depends on the definition of "not too far away". We have a good start for sure, and the coaching and systems point is duly noted. But, I think the operative word is "start" as in yes we have started. We have Reilly, and a couple of good forwards in the system (Nylander, Marner). Hopefully they emerge as the top percentile 1st liners that we are hoping for.
So, what's missing?
IMHO, it would be:
- Another two defenders to fill out the top three defensemen slots. Maybe we have a surprise in the making with one of existing prospects? Maybe not.
- Another top percentile #1 C/#2C. If both Nylander and Marner lock down these two pivotal center positions, then minimally we are in need of another top percentile winger (top 10%).
- A good goalie. It doesn't have to be a Price or King Henrik equivalent, but definitely needs to be a well above average tender.
My best guess is that we are about 4 players short from building the core. If you get one of those slots filled by someone who was drafted, or will be drafted at a lower round, and one bust in our 1st rounders, its pretty normal and it evens out.
If we get one of those missing core players per draft, then we need four (4) drafts. If we get two of those missing link players per draft, then we have achieved exceptional results, and we will need two more drafts.
Then you need to add a couple of years (minimally) for development.
From a statistical averages point of view, thinking that multiple best case scenarios will compile together with clock-work precision is a formula that is based on multiplying probabilities together. From a mathematical perspective, the probability in these cases is actually quite low.
We have been hearing for at least the last 10 years (substitute 10 with another number of your choosing, it doesn't matter) that we are just two pieces away. When you add all of this together, it seems unlikely that we will see a contender in a short window of time (e.g. 2 years). It took Chicago 7 years to build a Cup winner, and LA Kings 6 by my calculations. Those were exceptional results.
And then, the Leafs don't live in a static environment. Other teams are similarly rebuilding. Is our rebuild better than those other teams rebuild? That's another variable well worth considering that can affect the outcome.
I really hope I'm wrong with all this thinking, but this is what my rational, gut feeling is on this topic. I realize this will not be real popular thinking for many, and I expect an onslaught.
It's food for thought. Again, just my two cents.
