The Long Fix Rebuild

[Zetterberg4Captain]

Spoiled, though.

Spoiled are those who want the team today to still be those teams of years and decades past and demand that if Holland

The complete opposite of those who say it's ok Kenny let's take a pause and regroup we don't need to be those teams, we don't expect that or believe were entitled to it, were not spoiled...

 

[Heaton]

Spoiled are those who want the team today to still be those teams of years and decades past and demand that if Holland

The complete opposite of those who say it's ok Kenny let's take a pause and regroup we don't need to be those teams, we don't expect that or believe were entitled to it, were not spoiled...

Spoiled implies the fans owe something to the organization. Fans owe nothing to sports teams, especially when that sports team just siphoned out hundreds of millions of dollars from fans and non-fans. The Wings owe the fans to put a good product on the ice.

 

[jkutswings]

We need to meme this. Wise King Holland.

Anybody care to Photoshop a new face here?

 

[jkutswings]

Spoiled, though.

Spoiled would be thinking that any attempt at a rebuild is a guaranteed success in contending for multiple championships, let alone winning it all. Or that it should only take 2-3 years to pull it off. Or that you're guaranteed to find elite players at the top of every draft you tank for.

A traditional rebuild is a long and messy process that fails more often than it works to any high degree. And it's entirely possible that, even if it doesn't outright fail, that it only leads to returning to a 1st/2nd round exit type of team, even at their peak.

But precluding that altogether from the goals of the franchise, and being content with a self-imposed ceiling of token playoff participations, in the name of doing what's safe for the short-term financial bottom line? That's a product that simply provides insufficient entertainment for the average fan, in a business where it's your job to entertain. They might be able to get away with it for another year or two at the most, if fans really like the new arena. But it's both unsustainable and a really antagonistic way to treat your customers... especially with how stark it is as an about face from the last two decades of doing business.

If the cable company simultaneously cut half their services while increasing prices by 15 percent, it's their right to do so, and they'd likely retain enough customers to at least hold the fort in terms of profits. But you can only lose so many customers, while also eroding good will with those who haven't left, before you've put yourself in a bad spot, when there were alternatives with a better mix of short term risk and long term health of the business.

 

[Syckle78]

I guess I'm spoiled because I'm not ok with a family that's made billions upon billions off of the public won't take the hit to rebuild cause they need to chase two home playoff gates.

 

[HockeyinHD]

Spoiled would be thinking that any attempt at a rebuild is a guaranteed success in contending for multiple championships, let alone winning it all. Or that it should only take 2-3 years to pull it off. Or that you're guaranteed to find elite players at the top of every draft you tank for.

Those things too.

It's also viewing how the Wings have done the past few years as a disappointment.

A traditional rebuild is a long and messy process that fails more often than it works to any high degree. And it's entirely possible that, even if it doesn't outright fail, that it only leads to returning to a 1st/2nd round exit type of team, even at their peak.

I agree.

But precluding that altogether from the goals of the franchise, and being content with a self-imposed ceiling of token playoff participations, in the name of doing what's safe for the short-term financial bottom line? That's a product that simply provides insufficient entertainment for the average fan, in a business where it's your job to entertain.

I disagree. The Lions do okay. The Pistons do okay. The Tigers do okay. The reason you're freaking out about this is that you've always had the probability of postseason success to buoy your interest in the sport, so it's hard you to envision yourself enjoying hockey as much without it.

And, heck, you're probably right. Given the past quarter century I think a fairly big contingent of Wings fans are as much or more fans of 'winning' as they are of 'hockey'.

Assuming time and system continue to hammer Detroit into the mud with the vast majority of other NHL franchises, a lot of those people are going to fall off and go watch something else until Detroit perks up a bit.

But you can only lose so many customers, while also eroding good will with those who haven't left, before you've put yourself in a bad spot, when there were alternatives with a better mix of short term risk and long term health of the business.

That might be why is was so important to them to lock up a building deal that increased the overall value of their franchise by half a billion dollars or so, eh? They got in a huge value bump and a huge yearly profit bump right before the sun set, which will make it much, much easier for Illtch Holdings to rake in semi truck loads of dough even if one portion of their operations, hockey, takes a step back profit-wise.

They're a year away from ~15 mil of contracts coming off the books. Depending on their level of mercenary gall Detroit's not in a bad position to go full Florida Marlins and dump deals, sink to the cap floor, and guzzle pure profits like John Blutarsky kills off a fifth of Jack.

And if that annoys you, just wait until the Tigers do it at the same time.

 

[HockeyinHD]

The Wings owe the fans to put a good product on the ice.

Tigers. Pistons. Lions. In the name of all that is holy, how can there be a human being with an even passing familiarity with pro sports in Detroit who actually thinks what Heaton just said is even remotely accurate?

Pro sports teams don't owe you bleep. Your money and your time and your fandom doesn't earn you bleep. Sports teams are the entertainment version of prostitutes, when comments like Heaton treat them as spouses. There's no 'from death do us part', it's 'pay me the price of a ticket for 3 hours of my time'... and they try not to make the experience abjectly uncomfortable.

edit: Not that there's anything wrong with that. Some teams (or, say, GMs of teams) certainly do seem to generate a Dom/Sub kind of relationship with fans hereabouts.

 

[jkutswings]

I have no delusions that teams in general care more about fans or winning or anything else than profits. But there's a big difference between:

1) Profit
2) Profit
3) Profit
4) Winning
5) Safety
6) Growth of youth interest in the sport
7) Charity / community / good will

And:

1) Profit
2) Profit
3) Profit
4) Profit
5) Profit
6) Profit
7) Profit.

The Tigers, Pistons, and Lions you reference may be thoroughly inept at executing whatever plan they have, but their plan most definitely includes trying to win a championship. And none of their general managers would say that if you expect championships, you're in the wrong league...or that less success can be more exciting...or any such arrogant drivel that assumes the fans that have just witnessed two decades of unprecedented success, have suddenly transformed into blithering idiots, with no frame of reference, and no backbone to want you held accountable for your choices and actions.

The current approach of the Detroit Red Wings completely prevents any realistic chance at ever winning another Stanley Cup again, because it's not possible to have mediocre draft stock, and preferentially draft wingers, and ignore significant trades altogether, and overpay depth players...and still concentrate enough successful moves in a short enough window to have the horses to win it all.

It's the difference between the Lions drafting a variety of player positions, and just choosing poorly...versus drafting almost exclusively running backs and tight ends, and telling the fans to hang in there, because teams move up and down the standings all the time. One method is frustrating and disappointing, while the other is a rather embarrassing strain of insanity.

But at this point it's likely a matter of waiting out (or walking away from) however many more wasted years that it takes before fan apathy forces a change. And what a great chapter in the history of this storied franchise this shall turn out to be.

 

[Ezekial]

The complete opposite of those who say it's ok Kenny let's take a pause and regroup we don't need to be those teams, we don't expect that or believe were entitled to it, were not spoiled...

Let's not kid ourselves here, if people were like that the more positive posters wouldn't take offense to what is written in here. Everything Holland does or did is met with vitriol, future black.

There's no middle ground, I just turns to spats back and forth leading to irrational bashing by both sides. Such as calling fans spoiled for not appreciating what we had (sure they did, they just want it again)

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

It is going to be a really long rebuild if we cannot manage our assets correctly.

The first time we had to be public about it, not kicking tires or it takes two to tango lines, we got to see phenomenally bad judgment in this regard.

 

[Winger98]

so...we should trade multiple firsts to become a good team again. This is also the leading suggestion for how to take a can of gasoline and set fire to these boards.

It seems crazy, but part of me wants to see it just because it seems crazy. I think the author is off in thinking free agency will work in our favor, though. It should be more liberal, but we're seeing fewer big names choose to go that route.

Dealing our high picks for what's behind door number one aside, the corsi charts are crazy. Sorta emphasizes that we probably should have protected XO... .

 

[SpookyTsuki]

so...we should trade multiple firsts to become a good team again. This is also the leading suggestion for how to take a can of gasoline and set fire to these boards.

It seems crazy, but part of me wants to see it just because it seems crazy. I think the author is off in thinking free agency will work in our favor, though. It should be more liberal, but we're seeing fewer big names choose to go that route.

Dealing our high picks for what's behind door number one aside, the corsi charts are crazy. Sorta emphasizes that we probably should have protected XO... .

Yes the organization to follow in sports is the Brooklyn nets for sure

 

[Red Stanley]

I have no delusions that teams in general care more about fans or winning or anything else than profits. But there's a big difference between:

1) Profit
2) Profit
3) Profit
4) Winning
5) Safety
6) Growth of youth interest in the sport
7) Charity / community / good will

And:

1) Profit
2) Profit
3) Profit
4) Profit
5) Profit
6) Profit
7) Profit.

The Tigers, Pistons, and Lions you reference may be thoroughly inept at executing whatever plan they have, but their plan most definitely includes trying to win a championship. And none of their general managers would say that if you expect championships, you're in the wrong league...or that less success can be more exciting...or any such arrogant drivel that assumes the fans that have just witnessed two decades of unprecedented success, have suddenly transformed into blithering idiots, with no frame of reference, and no backbone to want you held accountable for your choices and actions.

The current approach of the Detroit Red Wings completely prevents any realistic chance at ever winning another Stanley Cup again, because it's not possible to have mediocre draft stock, and preferentially draft wingers, and ignore significant trades altogether, and overpay depth players...and still concentrate enough successful moves in a short enough window to have the horses to win it all.

It's the difference between the Lions drafting a variety of player positions, and just choosing poorly...versus drafting almost exclusively running backs and tight ends, and telling the fans to hang in there, because teams move up and down the standings all the time. One method is frustrating and disappointing, while the other is a rather embarrassing strain of insanity.

But at this point it's likely a matter of waiting out (or walking away from) however many more wasted years that it takes before fan apathy forces a change. And what a great chapter in the history of this storied franchise this shall turn out to be.

Which "current" approach are you referring to that is realistically completely preventing them from winning a championship EVER again? As far as I know they haven't somehow managed to select a winger at #20+ with their #9 pick, or signed Ott, Smith and Vanek to 5 year deals each.

 

[HIFE]

...We need an executive with this thought process https://theathletic.com/67998/2017/...l-executive-would-approach-red-wings-rebuild/

Wow I just read this. Seriously there is no depth like these pieces from hockey GM's/executives. The article from a current(?) NHL manager this spring in the Players Tribune discussing real life details surrounding the trade deadline was also fascinating.

Provenzano is essentially highlighting and tearing to pieces hope in three key elements of the rebuild Holland is banking on:

1) Hoarding draft picks! How many times has Holland boasted of our # of picks as clues to the real rebuild, ahaha. 1st round picks are almost 3 times as likely to make an impact as 2nd and 3rd. Also the top 1/3 of the 1st round is a much more reliable position to draft. Rounds 4-7 are a crapshoot to make the NHL.

2)Signing veterans to use as TD assets. Works like a charm, right? Provenzano says the player may not live up to making the team competitive or the decision to give them up for middle picks while hunting for the PO's may be difficult to make. I agree the NHL is trending away from the TD veteran pick-ups. Watching Hanzal and Hansen this season... yeah that didn't work out well. I don't even know what the Iginla trade was about. Vanek's return is the perfect example of this flawed strategy.

3)Free Agency. The author is referring to searching for franchise players but I'd argue this has been Holland's wheelhouse each off-season. Alfredsson and Weiss, Green, Richards, etc. EVERY season is that desperate aim to gather the top available FAs. He would have paid Stamkos 9 million without a 2nd thought lol. I concur the organization has blinders on that reinforce the perception Detroit is still a destination franchise. "Detonation" is a better description for the Wings right now.

What would this former NHL GM do in Kenny's position? Strip the team down and do a total rebuild through the draft lottery. Oh the horror!

The Detroit Red Wings did not manufacture one of the longest periods of competitive excellence by being risk-averse. Now is not the time to start.

Right on! The Red Wings should strive to be innovators again. We were trendsetters for decades. If you can even call it a rebuild our strategy is totally outdated. Holland is rebuilding like it's the early 2000's. We could use some fresh minds in the organization who are ahead of the game and not afraid to fail.

 

[HIFE]

...my last hope is that ownership comes to their senses and realizes that rebuild on the fly isn't going to work

Yeah hopefully when Chris is done coaching his son's little-league baseball team he can focus on the Wings.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Which "current" approach are you referring to that is realistically completely preventing them from winning a championship EVER again?

There is zero patience in this fanbase. People acting like a top 10 pick for the first time in decades is just more of the same. As if we've been drafting #15-19 for 10 years, when it's been a few times in the last 5 years. The "current approach" also included selling at the TDL for the first time since... the 90s? 80s?

And like I've said multiple times, there's no realistic move Holland can make this summer that makes us a playoff team unless the kids take major leaps. So all those who think our youngsters will not be core players have absolutely nothing to worry about, we will be right there in the bottom 10 next year as well.

 

[Red Stanley]

Wow I just read this. Seriously there is no depth like these pieces from hockey GM's/executives. The article from a current(?) NHL manager this spring in the Players Tribune discussing real life details surrounding the trade deadline was also fascinating.

Provenzano is essentially highlighting and tearing to pieces hope in three key elements of the rebuild Holland is banking on:

1) Hoarding draft picks! How many times has Holland boasted of our # of picks as clues to the real rebuild, ahaha. 1st round picks are almost 3 times as likely to make an impact as 2nd and 3rd. Also the top 1/3 of the 1st round is a much more reliable position to draft. Rounds 4-7 are a crapshoot to make the NHL.

2)Signing veterans to use as TD assets. Works like a charm, right? Provenzano says the player may not live up to making the team competitive or the decision to give them up for middle picks while hunting for the PO's may be difficult to make. I agree the NHL is trending away from the TD veteran pick-ups. Watching Hanzal and Hansen this season... yeah that didn't work out well. I don't even know what the Iginla trade was about. Vanek's return is the perfect example of this flawed strategy.

3)Free Agency. The author is referring to searching for franchise players but I'd argue this has been Holland's wheelhouse each off-season. Alfredsson and Weiss, Green, Richards, etc. EVERY season is that desperate aim to gather the top available FAs. He would have paid Stamkos 9 million without a 2nd thought lol. I concur the organization has blinders on that reinforce the perception Detroit is still a destination franchise. "Detonation" is a better description for the Wings right now.

What would this former NHL GM do in Kenny's position? Strip the team down and do a total rebuild through the draft lottery. Oh the horror!



Right on! The Red Wings should strive to be innovators again. We were trendsetters for decades. If you can even call it a rebuild our strategy is totally outdated. Holland is rebuilding like it's the early 2000's. We could use some fresh minds in the organization who are ahead of the game and not afraid to fail.

The article basically says that Holland's rebuild strategy is solid, as long as it's executed correctly and things go well (no ****). And what you got out of it was that Holland is doing it all wrong ... BTW, you can't burn the team down at this point in time. However, (much) higher picks are coming nevertheless. Oh the absolute horror!

 

[Heaton]

There is zero patience in this fanbase. People acting like a top 10 pick for the first time in decades is just more of the same. As if we've been drafting #15-19 for 10 years, when it's been a few times in the last 5 years. The "current approach" also included selling at the TDL for the first time since... the 90s? 80s?

And like I've said multiple times, there's no realistic move Holland can make this summer that makes us a playoff team unless the kids take major leaps. So all those who think our youngsters will not be core players have absolutely nothing to worry about, we will be right there in the bottom 10 next year as well.

I have plenty of patience, I want a complete rebuild. I have no patience for Holland wanting to make the playoffs this year further prolonging the rebuild.

 

[ArGarBarGar]

That might be why is was so important to them to lock up a building deal that increased the overall value of their franchise by half a billion dollars or so, eh? They got in a huge value bump and a huge yearly profit bump right before the sun set, which will make it much, much easier for Illtch Holdings to rake in semi truck loads of dough even if one portion of their operations, hockey, takes a step back profit-wise.

Yes, I'm sure if the Wings were rebuilding, they would have never secured a new arena. And you have made this argument numerous times, as if we as fans are supposed to care that some rich owners are making even more money than before.

The bottom line of rich team owners is not a compelling argument for the team's fans. We don't reap those rewards unless the team actually improves in a meaningful way. I have made this point numerous times.

 

[Pavels Dog]

I have plenty of patience, I want a complete rebuild. I have no patience for Holland wanting to make the playoffs this year further prolonging the rebuild.

He wanted to go on playoff runs between 2010-15, that didn't mean much. A GM that doesn't want to win is a bad GM, question is how far Holland is willing to go to make it. If it was so important for him, why not spend some picks to protect Mrazek/XO/Helm?

 

[Heaton]

He wanted to go on playoff runs between 2010-15, that didn't mean much. A GM that doesn't want to win is a bad GM, question is how far Holland is willing to go to make it. If it was so important for him, why not spend some picks to protect Mrazek/XO/Helm?

Why would he? He wants to get rid of Mrazek because he thinks Coreau is just as good or better, XO isn't that good and Helm is a terrible contract that I'm sure he regrets. Holland SHOULD be trading picks for Vegas to TAKE Helm, Abdelkader and Ericsson. Or at least 1 of the 3.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Why would he? He wants to get rid of Mrazek because he thinks Coreau is just as good or better, XO isn't that good and Helm is a terrible contract that I'm sure he regrets. Holland SHOULD be trading picks for Vegas to TAKE Helm, Abdelkader and Ericsson. Or at least 1 of the 3.

So if he wants to make the playoffs, he should be spending picks to ensure they take Helm/Ericsson/Abby/Mraz if your theory is accurate. But he's not doing that.

 

[jkutswings]

He wanted to go on playoff runs between 2010-15, that didn't mean much. A GM that doesn't want to win is a bad GM, question is how far Holland is willing to go to make it. If it was so important for him, why not spend some picks to protect Mrazek/XO/Helm?

Over the last few years, what exactly has Detroit won? A few extra regular season games? An occasional playoff game (while still getting bounced in the first round)?

There isn't a single GM in the league that thinks, 'Geez, that winning stuff is horrendous. I hope my team never manages to be really good.' But some front offices have the honesty and the realism to match their philosophy to their respective place in the competitive cycle, instead of taking the 'smartest guy in the room' angle to such an extreme, that you're expecting square pegs to fit in round holes.

If you're making the playoffs, only to get embarrassed - and now it's to the point that making the playoffs isn't even a given - then what criteria are you using to say that your strategy is a success? Because if the same franchise goes from, 'Cup or bust', to, 'regular contender', to, 'man, it sure would be sweet to make the playoffs again, but I'm not willing to sacrifice ANYTHING significant to land the horses to maybe one day be awesome again'....

...that's downright pathetic, and the fans shouldn't spend a dime on this dumpster fire until they realign their priorities.

 

[Winger98]

Yes the organization to follow in sports is the Brooklyn nets for sure

I fully endorse the Brooklyn Nets as a model organization (I'm a Celtics fan).


Joking aside, I have to think that the author was envisioning Holland moving picks for guys who aren't on their last legs, though. Loved Pierce and Garnett in the green and white, but those guys were in their early/mid 30s when that trade went down.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

There is zero patience in this fanbase. People acting like a top 10 pick for the first time in decades is just more of the same. As if we've been drafting #15-19 for 10 years, when it's been a few times in the last 5 years. The "current approach" also included selling at the TDL for the first time since... the 90s? 80s?

And like I've said multiple times, there's no realistic move Holland can make this summer that makes us a playoff team unless the kids take major leaps. So all those who think our youngsters will not be core players have absolutely nothing to worry about, we will be right there in the bottom 10 next year as well.

What do you mean no patience?

Dos ent patience imply waiting?

Nobody, say again nobody, is more patient then a fan who wants a total rebuild.

Those who don't, who want to try and squeak into the playoffs first and foremost but then if they don't argue well then at least we will get a higher pick are the ones without patience

They want immediate gratification