Speculation: The logic of buying out Benoit Pouliot?

[tempest2i]

You mean the Pouliot that was on pace for 50+ points (mostly at even-strength) for the first two years of his contract? And rebounding after a bad year?

Oilers management wanted to get rid of it, and it became a self fulfilling prophecy. Lucic was struggling for 60 games last year, but he got the McDavid push - where was Benoit's opportunity with 97, with whom he's worked well with in the past?

Considering that Benoit as been on seven teams over the last nine seasons, it's quite possible that Benoit's "opportunity to play with 97" was lost because he had worn out his welcome and no one liked him.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

You mean the Pouliot that was on pace for 50+ points (mostly at even-strength) for the first two years of his contract? And rebounding after a bad year?

So a quick thing, Pouliot has 8 points in 18 games, that's a pace of 36 pts. So check your math. On top of that Pouliot's shooting% right now is 23.1%, do you honestly think it will stay that high for the whole season? His career his is 18% and he seems to average around 12~% so that he will adjust back to the mean.

So I was looking at it, Pouliot had 14 points in 67 games last season, playing 14:03 a game

For Comparison sake
Matt Benning: 15 points in 62 games, playing 16:36
Drake Caggiula: 18 points in 60 games, playing 13:14
Anton Slepyshev: 10points in 41 games, playing 11:06
and
Matt Hendrick: 7 points in 42 games, playing 10:44

There's was Nothing to suggest that Pouliot would be worth hanging on to in the slightest. He looks like an expensive and useless forward who would quickly be passed by cheaper and better players. The team was utterly done with the player, they waived him during the year, they tried to trade him constantly. Buying him out was the only option.

No overachieving on a very bad Sabres team changes the reality that Pouliot had no future on the Oilers.

 

[VainGretzky]

Why do I keep having to frigging repeat this? WE DON'T WANT THEM TO LAND THE OFFERSHEET. IT COSTS US MONEY.

why do I have to keep repeating this it does not apply to Draisaitl situation we had the space in both cases omg lol

 

[StevenF1919]

Why do I keep having to frigging repeat this? WE DON'T WANT THEM TO LAND THE OFFERSHEET. IT COSTS US MONEY.

List of NHL players who have signed offer sheets - Wikipedia
3 offersheets in the last 7 years, none in the last 4. Why do people think that offersheets are such a big risk when they never happen?

 

[McShogun99]

List of NHL players who have signed offer sheets - Wikipedia
3 offersheets in the last 7 years, none in the last 4. Why do people think that offersheets are such a big risk when they never happen?

How many teams had 10+ million in cap space to even offer Draisaitl an offer sheet that the Oilers wouldn't match.

 

[StevenF1919]

How many teams had 10+ million in cap space to even offer Draisaitl an offer sheet that the Oilers wouldn't match.

Probably only lottery teams, in which case I'd gladly take the picks.

 

[Davo Ikinzom]

Probably only lottery teams, in which case I'd gladly take the picks.

Me too. A Draisaitl's a Draisaitl. But lottery picks could be anything. They could even be a Draisaitl!

 

[Samus44]

So a quick thing, Pouliot has 8 points in 18 games, that's a pace of 36 pts. So check your math.

There's was Nothing to suggest that Pouliot would be worth hanging on to in the slightest. He looks like an expensive and useless forward who would quickly be passed by cheaper and better players. The team was utterly done with the player, they waived him during the year, they tried to trade him constantly. Buying him out was the only option.

No overachieving on a very bad Sabres team changes the reality that Pouliot had no future on the Oilers.

Check your reading the dude was clearly referencing his first two seasons as an Oiler. Haha.

Pouliot was a dumb buyout. It's dead space on the cap for multiple years of the McDavid extension, he desered a chance to rebound and it was better for the team. After factoring in the cost of a replacement the team saved 1.5 million, i'd rather save that money two and three years from now. Nevermind the guy was by far our best PKer.

The reality is Chiarelli is bad at managing the cap and maximizing asset value. He's good for his aggressiveness in fixing holes and finding roster balance with cheap pickups but overpays for the players he likes and to get rid of the ones he doesn't and that includes making deals in which he ships out vastly superior players just to fill holes regardless of value. I like Larsson and don't mind Strome and lets not even get started on the Reinhart deal, those 3 players cost him basically a first line in Hall, Eberle, and Barzal (who we all wanted), plus a 2nd and he got back a 2/3 dman and a 3rd line center albeit both Strome/Larsson have upside yet IMO. Nevermind the weird Korpikoski trade that's still costing this team capspace. Obviously getting Talbot, Maroon, and hopefully Cammalleri for cheap provides counter to that, as do Caggiula, Benning, Ellis as well as his established free agent pickups (Sekera's been great IMO, Lucic has been what we had hoped for so far this year, Russell was great last year). The reality is Chiarelli takes pretty hard stances on players with at times cap and asset value be damned, it's fine with cheap bottom of the roster players but with bonafide top 9 players his asset management has hurt us and Pouliot is no exception.

 

[McShogun99]

Me too. A Draisaitl's a Draisaitl. But lottery picks could be anything. They could even be a Draisaitl!

Or 4 Draisaitls!!!!

Draisaitl by himself isn’t enough to turn a lottery team into a contender.

 

[nabob]

List of NHL players who have signed offer sheets - Wikipedia
3 offersheets in the last 7 years, none in the last 4. Why do people think that offersheets are such a big risk when they never happen?

Possibly because teams position themselves like Chia did. They make it so they can match any offer made.

 

[StevenF1919]

Me too. A Draisaitl's a Draisaitl. But lottery picks could be anything. They could even be a Draisaitl!

I'd take four high 1st round picks over Draisaitl at 10mil, possibly even 8.5mil.

Possibly because teams position themselves like Chia did. They make it so they can match any offer made.

We could have matched regardless.

 

[nabob]

I'd take four high 1st round picks over Draisaitl at 10mil, possibly even 8.5mil.

We could have matched regardless.

You don't feel like winning now?


Could we have? Would we have had any cap flexibility? Could we afford to add an impact player at the deadline? Losing a negative impact player like Pouliot is worth having the ability to sign Drai and still add good players.

 

[Chet Manley]

Just guessing Chai thought that Pouliot was easily replaced and wanted him gone for whatever reason, but nobody on the team has stepped up to perform the 3LW and PK duties as well as he could.

 

[Mr Positive]

With the cap, buying him out now saved us 2.67 million in cap space for this current season, but we have to endure one extra year of his cap hit at 1.33 to get those savings. And yes, he had to be bought out either this past summer or the one upcoming. When that McDavid extension kicks in, he couldn't be here anymore, and no one would trade for his 4 million, and probably not even at full retention 2 million.

Chia must have thought that the extra cap space this season was worth it. And maybe also he didn't like what Pouliot was.

Personally I think it was a mistake to buy him out. I don't like that extra year, even if we save cap space when you add it all up.

 

[StevenF1919]

You don't feel like winning now?


Could we have? Would we have had any cap flexibility? Could we afford to add an impact player at the deadline? Losing a negative impact player like Pouliot is worth having the ability to sign Drai and still add good players.

It's clear that winning now wasn't the plan with how our offseason went anyways. Even before the Pouliot buyout we were able to sign Drai if he was offersheeted. This move made no sense at the time and it's even more ridiculous now that we're getting killed on special teams.

 

[nabob]

It's clear that winning now wasn't the plan with how our offseason went anyways. Even before the Pouliot buyout we were able to sign Drai if he was offersheeted. This move made no sense at the time and it's even more ridiculous now that we're getting killed on special teams.

Winning with McDaid on his ELC should always be the goal. You didn't answer any of my questions, why sacrifice all of your cap space and flexibility for Pouliot. A player who put up 4th line numbers and took more penalties than he helped kill.

So your answer to building a better team that could win more is keeping Pouliot, the worst forward from the roster last season...

 

[StevenF1919]

Winning with McDaid on his ELC should always be the goal. You didn't answer any of my questions, why sacrifice all of your cap space and flexibility for Pouliot. A player who put up 4th line numbers and took more penalties than he helped kill.

So your answer to building a better team that could win more is keeping Pouliot, the worst forward from the roster last season...

Winning with McDavid on his ELC wasn't the goal of the management team. The first round picks could have been useful cheap players to help us with the cap problems that Chia has saddled us with. We'd still have cap flexibility with Pouliot on the team and to be buyers at the deadline we'd need to be in a playoff spot. Pouliot would have gone a long way to improving our abysmal PK which is costing us games. He would have also had a bounce back year and contributed offensively while adding some speed to this team.

Regardless, this offersheet was never going to happen. There have been teams in worse situations than us that didn't have their players poached, like Anaheim with Lindholm. Offersheets just don't happen anymore.

 

[nabob]

Winning with McDavid on his ELC wasn't the goal of the management team. The first round picks could have been useful cheap players to help us with the cap problems that Chia has saddled us with. We'd still have cap flexibility with Pouliot on the team and to be buyers at the deadline we'd need to be in a playoff spot. Pouliot would have gone a long way to improving our abysmal PK which is costing us games. He would have also had a bounce back year and contributed offensively while adding some speed to this team.

Regardless, this offersheet was never going to happen. There have been teams in worse situations than us that didn't have their players poached, like Anaheim with Lindholm. Offersheets just don't happen anymore.

You say Pouliot would have helped the PK and also had a bounce back season like it's a guarantee it would have happened. You don't get rid of your 2nd best player, currently is PPG, for picks when you have McDavid on your roster. Could you imagine Pittsburgh dumping Malkin for picks just so they could keep an over paid 4th liner and build for the future during the 07/08 season?

 

[Jet Walters]

The cap savings on Pouliot can be used to bring in around 9-10 million dollars in expiring deals at the deadline. I'd say that's much more valuable than what Pouliot would have actually brought to the team this year.

 

[StevenF1919]

You say Pouliot would have helped the PK and also had a bounce back season like it's a guarantee it would have happened. You don't get rid of your 2nd best player, currently is PPG, for picks when you have McDavid on your roster. Could you imagine Pittsburgh dumping Malkin for picks just so they could keep an over paid 4th liner and build for the future during the 07/08 season?

This is assuming someone signed Drai to a 10mil+ deal, which would have never happened. Drai isn't worth 8.5, never mind 10.

 

[nabob]

This is assuming someone signed Drai to a 10mil+ deal, which would have never happened. Drai isn't worth 8.5, never mind 10.

Where did I say anything about $10M?

 

[Speed220DChalavan]

There's was Nothing to suggest that Pouliot would be worth hanging on to in the slightest. He looks like an expensive and useless forward who would quickly be passed by cheaper and better players. The team was utterly done with the player, they waived him during the year, they tried to trade him constantly. Buying him out was the only option.

No overachieving on a very bad Sabres team changes the reality that Pouliot had no future on the Oilers.

A few points:

1. Pouliot had the best shot suppression rates on the PK. The PK has cost the Oilers games this season. So your assessment that he couldn't add value is completely false. He's also historically had a strong EV/60 rate.

2. I could buy the argument that he's overpaid, and if the Oilers were in cap trouble this season, a buyout may have made sense.

The problem is they're hoarding cap space. A pro-rated 40M available at the deadline. 10M at the start of the season. There was really no need to devalue an asset, a useful player, sell low, when his career history suggests he's a strong even-strength player and would rebound. As he is.

A daily reminder that vacant cap space doesn't help you win hockey games.

The other point is it doesn't even save too much cap space this year (and is dead cap space for 3 additional seasons). $4M - 1.333M cap space - 1.1M replacement roster spot - you're saving a whopping 1.57M while you have downgraded at wing.

3. The smart play would be wait a year, and then:

a. Hope for a rebound and then trade him (retain salary of up to 50% of necessary for the final year if necessary)
b. Buy him out only if (a) is exhausted. 2 dead years cap space instead of 4.
c. Keep him. He could still add value to your team and you cut costs elsewhere.

These are the type of cap mis-management moves that got Chiarelli fired in Boston.

 

[StevenF1919]

Where did I say anything about $10M?

That's what it would take for the Oilers to consider not matching.

 

[nabob]

That's what it would take for the Oilers to consider not matching.

You're the one saying the Oilers should have given Drai up for picks and kept Pouliot instead

 

[StevenF1919]

You're the one saying the Oilers should have given Drai up for picks and kept Pouliot instead

I said if he was offer sheeted at 10mil, we shouldn't match. The 10mil figure was stated by the original poster I replied to. My point was that the Pouliot buyout shouldn't have anything to do with Drai's deal because we could afford it regardless, and if he was offer sheeted at an amount that we couldn't fit under the cap, it would be a stupid contract and we'd be better off with the picks.

Like I said, Draisaitl was never going to get offer sheeted. Anything less than 10mil and we would match, anything above that would be stupid and there are no teams that would be dumb enough to give him that contract. If Lindholm wasn't offer sheeted when the Ducks had 0 cap space, Drai wasn't going to be when we had tons.