The Leafs Special Teams Has Been Dreadful

[Lightsol]

The PP will fix itself, but the PK really worries me come playoffs. Let’s just hope Edmundson can make a difference, Brodie is spent. Jarnkrok is decent, hopefully Dewar can bring more, he is a PKer, but the Wild weren’t exactly world beaters there.

The big issue with the PK is Keefe's insistence on using Brodie on it like he's the defenseman he was 2 years ago. Combine that with injuries forcing him to experiment with the forwards, and his refusal to look at who is and is not appropriate to be on a PK (considering Nylander isn't the greatest defensive forward, why would you try him on the PK?), and you have what we've seen this year.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

The powerplay has been a strength most of the season, but it is struggling currently, right as every team is ramping up towards the playoffs. Mitch is missing but he's only been absent 3 of the 7 gamed we've played this month. In the games he did play, the Leafs were 1 for 12 on the PP. Optimistically it's just a cold stretch. Pessimistically it's a harbinger of things to come in the playoffs, where time and again we see the Leafs man-advantage falter.

Year	Regular Season Powerplay	Post-Season Powerplay
2017	PP% 23.8% - 2nd out of 30	PP% 16.7% - 11th out of 16
2018	PP% 25% - 2nd out of 31	PP% 26.7% - 4th out of 16
2019	PP% 21.8% - 8th out of 31	PP% 18.8% - 9th out of 16
2020	PP% 23.1% - 6th out of 31	PP% 15.4% - 15th out of 24 (COVID Bubble)
2021	PP% 20% - 16th out of 31	PP% 13% - 14th out of 16
2022	PP% 27.3% - 1st out of 32	PP% 14.3% - 11th out of 16
2023	PP% 26% - 2nd out of 32	PP% 25% - 6th out of 16

The Leafs have seen at least a 6-7 percent difference in their regular season powerplay to their post-season powerplay 4 out of 7 years. The three exceptions being the two Boston series that saw us increase our powerplay production in 2018 and saw only a 3 percent drop in 2019, and last year when we finally won a series. However, when split the two 2023 series and look at the one we lost against the Panthers, the Leafs powerplay only converted at a rate of 18.2%, which is a more than 7 percent drop off compared to the regular season and reflects this troubling trend. Against the Lightning the Leafs were scoring at 28.6% on the PP. So really it's more that the Leafs powerplay has seen a significant drop off in all but 3 of 8 playoff series.

I'm probably being unfair. The Leafs have been fantastic on the powerplay for most of the Matthews era but given their playoff history I'm primed to expect disappointment there regardless of where they rank in the regular season. They've ranked either 1st or 2nd on the PP four out of seven seasons, but three of those seasons saw a massive drop-off in production in the series we lost.

As far as the PK is concerned:

Year	Regular Season Penalty Kill	Post-Season Penalty Kill
2017	PK% 82.5% - 10th out of 30	PK% 70.6% - 15th out of 16
2018	PK% 81.4% - 11th out of 31	PK% 66.7% - 16th out of 16
2019	PK% 79.9% - 18th out of 31	PK% 56.3% - 15th out of 16
2020	PK% 77.7% - 21st out of 31	PK% 100% - 1st out of 20 (COVID Bubble)
2021	PK% 78.5% - 24th out of 31	PK% 84.2% - 3rd out of 16
2022	PK% 82.1% - 8th out of 32	PK% 78.8% - 9th out of 16
2023	PK% 81.9% - 12th out of 32	PK% 73.3% - 11th out of 16

It's just been poor to mediocre the entire time. Decent in the early years before utterly collapsing in the playoffs, then 2019 it was poor in the regular season then unplayable against Boston. 2020 is an anomaly with the Bubble, playing only 5 games against a Columbus team that had scoring troubles all year. 2021 is the only year that goes against the grain, as we actually improved on the PK that year in the playoffs yet still lost that cursed series. Probably had to do with our PP going down the toilet that series. Last two years have seen the Leafs at least above 80% on the PK and hovering around 10th in the league in the regular season, but has been in the bottom half of teams in the playoffs. Splitting up the two series last year, the Leafs PK against Tampa was 76.2%. Against Florida it was 66.7%. That first number would've had the Leafs ranked 9th out of 16, the second number 14th out of 16.

This year the PK is at 76.8%, 24th in the league. Abysmal. As far as trends go it's harder to judge. The powerplay has had the same guys on it for most of Matthews' Leafs career, as it's been him, Marner, Nylander, Tavares, and Rielly running things, with guest appearances from Gardiner, JVR, Bozak, Kadri, and Barrie. But since 2021 the top 5 Leafs in powerplay time has been the quintet of our highest paid players. The PK however has had much more of a revolving door on that front, having guys like Hyman, Polak, Hunwick, Komarov, Brown, Hainsey, Kapanen, Lindholm, Ceci, Muzzin, Holl, Marner, Brodie, Kerfoot, Kampf, and Jarnkrok all being regulars over the past 7 seasons. The most consistent thing to point to is coaching. Under Babcock the PK was dreadful come playoff time and deteriorated under him every regular season with Matthews until he was canned. Keefe was on his way to figuring it out and while he still saw a drop-off in the playoffs it's never been anywhere near as bad as the embarrassing numbers under Babcock.

This year is bad and if we're being charitable we can chalk it up to major roster turnover, putting players who don't usually PK on the PK (Matthews, Nylander), missing guys who've been mainstays there for an extended period (Jarnkrok, Marner), and a massive decline from usually soild players (Brodie, Giordano). If the PK can right itself over the next month I'm more inclined to believe it will carry over into the playoffs than the PP. The PK operates at a more similar clip between the regular season and playoffs than the PP does under Sheldon Outside of Florida the worst difference under Sheldon was roughly 5 percent against Tampa last season. The year before that it was less than 4 percent, and the two years prior it actually improved from the regular season (big asterisk on the COVID 2020 year though).

Florida ate our lunch though on their powerplay last year though, which goes against the trend under Keefe and harkens back to the trash penalty-killing percentages under Babcock. Could chalk it up to a few different things. Florida was rolling and had been getting better since the final quarter of the season. Two of our biggest penalty killers were bad, with Holl completely collapsing in the playoffs being useless in all situations, and Brodie really started showing his age as well that post-season, especially in that series (and has only continued to decline). Samsonov was playing injured and Woll came into the series cold and was a rookie.

Fixing the PK will be a test of patience as we wait for Mitch and Jarny to heal up. Integrating Lyubushkin, Dewar, and Edmundson will also take time.

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

So hard to believe a $50M power play can't buy a goal.

Everything is so disorganized lately. It's just been all higgledy piggledy. That's on the coach.

Because they most definitely have the right players to do the job.

They struggle to enter the other teams zone. Once in they pass and pass and pass some more. It's a convoluted mess that's hard to make sense of.

Like seriously, who's supposed to be doing what?

Because I have no idea what's going on out there half the time. And it looks like the players don't either. At this point I just hope they get lucky and start scoring again soon.

Because they must be nearing the limit on statistical improbabilities for the power play to not to get a goal by now.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Players with over 60 minutes PK time this year, by goals allowed per 60:

Forwards:
Gregor 4.65
Jarnkrok 8.46
Nylander 8.51
Marner 8.94
Kampf 9.27

Defence:
Benoit 5.15
McCabe 6.67
Brodie 9.53
Giordano 10.97

 

[CabanaBoy5]

The big issue with the PK is Keefe's insistence on using Brodie on it like he's the defenseman he was 2 years ago. Combine that with injuries forcing him to experiment with the forwards, and his refusal to look at who is and is not appropriate to be on a PK (considering Nylander isn't the greatest defensive forward, why would you try him on the PK?), and you have what we've seen this year.

I agree on both counts. Brodie has been terrible when he's been pressured and has trouble clearing pucks without the other team getting a stick on it. That can be a disaster when killing penalties or late in periods and games.

As for Nylander, I understand what Keefe is thinking, putting out an offensive threat when killing penalties. But the primary goal of a PK is to kill the penalty, and when the opposition has the extra man and possession, you need a player with good defensive instincts out there. He's too prone to fly-bys to be effective on the PK. He doesn't put his stick in the lanes to prevent passes. Nylander is NOT Marner, he's not even Matthews when you think of defensively responsible players.

Couple these two with an ineffective PK system, and you're seeing the disaster that is our PK.

 

[Nineteen67]

Their lack of quickness and speed will more than likely result in taking penalties in the playoffs, so they have to rectify the PK to have any success..

 

[Fogelhund]

I agree on both counts. Brodie has been terrible when he's been pressured and has trouble clearing pucks without the other team getting a stick on it. That can be a disaster when killing penalties or late in periods and games.

As for Nylander, I understand what Keefe is thinking, putting out an offensive threat when killing penalties. But the primary goal of a PK is to kill the penalty, and when the opposition has the extra man and possession, you need a player with good defensive instincts out there. He's too prone to fly-bys to be effective on the PK. He doesn't put his stick in the lanes to prevent passes. Nylander is NOT Marner, he's not even Matthews when you think of defensively responsible players.

Couple these two with an ineffective PK system, and you're seeing the disaster that is our PK.

and yet we have less goals scored against us when Nylander is on the PK, than Marner.....

-------------------------

Our top PK D last year were Holl, Brodie, Giordano... Holl is gone was excellent on the PK if nowhere else, Brodie and Gio fell off a cliff.

Kerfoot is gone from the PK, and was quite good too. Acciari was excellent in his short stint here.


We had players leave who were very good on the PK, replaced them with offensive players, and two of our more important D, had a massive decline in play.

I don't know how we fix this before the playoffs... but we need to pay attention to this in the offseason for sure.

 

[Fogelhund]

""

 

[CabanaBoy5]

and yet we have less goals scored against us when Nylander is on the PK, than Marner.....

-------------------------

Our top PK D last year were Holl, Brodie, Giordano... Holl is gone was excellent on the PK if nowhere else, Brodie and Gio fell off a cliff.

Kerfoot is gone from the PK, and was quite good too. Acciari was excellent in his short stint here.


We had players leave who were very good on the PK, replaced them with offensive players, and two of our more important D, had a massive decline in play.

I don't know how we fix this before the playoffs... but we need to pay attention to this in the offseason for sure.

I hope you're not suggesting that Nylander is a better penalty killer than Marner. You might one of the few people on the planet who would suggest that, regardless of what the stats this season say.

I don't think that Nylander and Brodie are the only reasons that our PK sucks. I agree we've lost some decent penalty killers. We had an 81.9 PK% last season, good for 11th overall. This season it's 76..8%, wallowing in 24th. Perhaps we miss Holl on the PK more than we think. Also, as you pointed out, Brodie and Giordano have fallen defensively quite a bit from previous years.

In addition to our goaltending not being great on the PK, I believe there is a huge systemic flaw in how they run the PK. They don't pressure the points to protect the house, and yet we don't protect the house because we don't tie up the players in front or get in the lanes. The players on the PP have too much time and space to shoot.

You're right though, something has to change before the playoffs. Let's start with getting Nylander and Brodie off the PK and change the system.

 

[LeafsNation149]

Dewar, Kampf, Marner, Jarnkrok, McMann - are the only forwards that should be seeing PK time on the Leafs

 

[ACC1224]

""

Nylanders quote "whatever", I can only imagine the uproar had Marner said that

 

[67leafs]

Who’s the PP coach

 

[Fogelhund]

I hope you're not suggesting that Nylander is a better penalty killer than Marner. You might one of the few people on the planet who would suggest that, regardless of what the stats this season say.

I don't think that Nylander and Brodie are the only reasons that our PK sucks. I agree we've lost some decent penalty killers. We had an 81.9 PK% last season, good for 11th overall. This season it's 76..8%, wallowing in 24th. Perhaps we miss Holl on the PK more than we think. Also, as you pointed out, Brodie and Giordano have fallen defensively quite a bit from previous years.

In addition to our goaltending not being great on the PK, I believe there is a huge systemic flaw in how they run the PK. They don't pressure the points to protect the house, and yet we don't protect the house because we don't tie up the players in front or get in the lanes. The players on the PP have too much time and space to shoot.

You're right though, something has to change before the playoffs. Let's start with getting Nylander and Brodie off the PK and change the system.

I'm not suggesting Nylander is better... just that the results have been better... I'm sure there is context there... probably law of small numbers, but Nylander's results aren't as bad as we are making them out to be.

Our goaltending was suspect for long parts of the season, that is part of the problem... plus we've lost good PK'ers.

Dewar, Boosh and Edmundson have all been good in the past on the PK.... hopefully they help. Getting Marner and Jarnkrok back will help. Benoit should be back in the lineup, maybe it's time to sit Brodie, and he's good on the PK. Dewar/Kampf/Marner/Jarnkrok... Boosh/Edmundson/McCabe/Benoit should improve things... and our coaching staff really need to focus on this area.

 

[NVious]

Nylanders quote "whatever", I can only imagine the uproar had Marner said that

To be fair it is "whatever" to all 4 of them, whereas other players look at the Stanley Cup playoffs as the ultimate proving ground to test themselves and build legacies, our guys look at it as unpaid overtime.

John "Lessons" Tavares
William "Whatever" Nylander
Mitch "We Don't Care What You Think" Marner

 

[BrannigansLaw]

Nothing unusual. The special teams are just rounding into playoff form.

Better figure this shit out. The PK I have less hope for but we can't have 50 million out on PP1 and be rocking a pathetic 5% these past few weeks.

 

[SprDaVE]

There is really no excuse to the PP being that bad. It's not even that it's gone cold or just unlucky, which is some times the case, they look like crap for the most part.

If they don't figure it out or improve, it will be a big part as to why they may have big issues in the post season.

 

[Menzinger]

There is really no excuse to the PP being that bad. It's not even that it's gone cold or just unlucky, which is some times the case, they look like crap for the most part.

If they don't figure it out or improve, it will be a big part as to why they may have big issues in the post season.

At the moment it's 100% on coaching. When you're be got Matthews, Nylander, Marner, you need a system to figure how to use them, which shouldn't be too hard....

 

[stickty111]

At the moment it's 100% on coaching. When you're be got Matthews, Nylander, Marner, you need a system to figure how to use them, which shouldn't be too hard....

Maybe but we have went throught multiple PP coaches and the result seems to be the same. I think it's on the stars at this point.

 

[ULF_55]

Nylander has to be off your PK, I know we're missing people now, when they come back please end this experiment. Sure he can tip a puck and fly down the other way, he's a threat, but he is way too passive for me, you need aggression from your forwards, he seems to think if he's in the right spot on a chalkboard then he's done his job. That's isn't enough. Willie hemmed in our zone is hard to watch, it's still his weakest spot, and we saw it last night again. Great player, PK isn't his game and that's fine.

Brodie needs to retire too.

Nylander is not a good PKer, and it's worse if he's with someone who can't skate.

 

[Stephen]

At the moment it's 100% on coaching. When you're be got Matthews, Nylander, Marner, you need a system to figure how to use them, which shouldn't be too hard....

I would say the problem is it’s a PP run on instinct and feel instead of any real game plan. It’s not like they really set up with any real purpose or urgency, have to set up and marks or have a designated playmaker triangulating to 2 shot options. When it’s on it’s just flow state Harlem Globetrotters. When they’re not feeling it it’s 5 guys meeting each other for the first time.

The transition game is just putrid.

 

[Dion TheFluff]

they're gonna get throttled by either Boston or Florida in the 1st round. Hopefully a core player (cough Marner cough) gets traded as a result.

 

[PanniniClaus]

When it really counts you need to have the hammer up top you can pull out of the bag.. Hedman, Bouchard, Burns, heck even Montour. Guys that can shoot the puck and plant that extra seed of doubt. Players at the top of the PK can cheat the bumper when the puck is moved to the flanks or down low because they know we can't bump it back up top for a 1 time shot..

 

[Nineteen67]

""

Willy is stating the obvious, the opposition still controls their success

 

[thewave]

Nylander is not a good PKer, and it's worse if he's with someone who can't skate.

These are all coaching issues. This thread should actually read... The Leafs coaching has been dreadful. That's the truth of the matter.

 

[darrylsittler27]

Add the horrible reffing and we’re absolutely screwed

Rigged. Horrible implies they don't know what they are doing. It's flagrant but Leafs love it.

These are all coaching issues. This thread should actually read... The Leafs coaching has been dreadful. That's the truth of the matter.

We have known Keefe was an issue.