Line Combos: The Hunt for EJ's Left Handed Man

[AslanRH]

We as the de facto front office of the HFB Avalanche have been discussing this for a while. The time has come to narrow it down and make our move so we can have a player in place to start next year. With the deadline approaching its time to prepare. I foresee this being a move that is made after the end of the season and the lottery however.

I am more Accountant than Scout, so all I could do was raid the rosters of every team and put a list of players together that fit around our core age group and look to fit the mold of what has already been discussed in other threads. Also all players are LH, did not evaluate RH for this list.

While the list is long, I'm sure there are some players who I've overlooked or over valued.

I see us currently having 2 primary Assets to trade, either of which may return some extra in a package or have to be added to in order to land the best fit:
-Paul Stastny
-2013 1st Round Pick

I truly believe this should be the #1 priority of the team this off-season

I've made a list, but its up to the Smarter Hockey guys in our organization to narrow it down. (cap# x yrs remaining starting 2013-2014), [age if outside of target range <28]

Top Tier: (likely unattainable or would carry a heavy cost)
C. Fowler(4x5), OEL(5.5x6), J. Johnson(4.357x5), R. McDonagh(RFA), Alzner(RFA), Hedman(4x4), Josi(RFA),

Second Tier: (Likely attainable at a reasonable cost, not necessarily elite)
Yandle(5.25x3), Edler (5x6), Kulikov(2.5x1,RFA), Staal, Hjalmarsson(3.5x1), Tyutin[30](4.5x5), Enstrom[28](5.75x5)

Third Tier: (Attainable with + coming back as well, Risk to never be a true #2)
Wiercioch(RFA), Nikitin(2.15x1), Sbisa(2.175x2), Emelin(2x1), Sekera(2.75x2), Leddy(RFA), Erixon (ELCx1), Goligoski(4.6x3), B. Smith(RFA), Kindl(RFA),

UFA: Smid, Hainsey (32),

Prospects Could start as 3rd pairing to get their legs before moving up to first replacing Wilson
(I am not able to say how close they are to NHL ready so this list may be off):
Beaulieu, Rielly, Gormley, Murray, Merrill, Moore, Oleksiak,

Click to read more...

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

If those are the pieces were moving I hope we do nothing...

Moving our 1st this year would be a huge mistake. Same with moving Stastny.

 

[Lonewolfe2015]

Don't trade the 1st. Period.

If we can acquire one of them for Stastny or O'Reilly, that's when you start to consider it. Ultimately I would decline and retain our center depth.

Wait for one to hit Free Agency, wait for the right opportunity to take a younger guy (or an older one) on the way out due to depth (Ehrhoff for instance when the Nucks grabbed him). Develop your prospects and move them for deals right before we're contenders.

We don't need an EJ partner to be in the playoffs, we need a coach that can use our current lot more effectively (including Barrie). By the time we've gotten a year or two under our belts in the playoffs it'll be time to move a prospect or two and we might have the assets to acquire the defender we need... if Siemens or someone didn't fill that void already.

 

[The Mars Volchenkov]

The 1st round pick should be of limits.

Not Stastny though. I'd trade him. His time has come and I think it's just going to be too hard to run with 3 scoring lines. One of the centers has to go, and given O'Reilly has stepped in and seemingly not missed a beat, it should be Stastny. I doubt he brings in a sure fire top pairing guy, but a guy like Gardiner would be welcomed by me.

 

[Freudian]

I think fans are more obsessed with finding EJ a partner than Avs are. I think Avs are fine with Wilson/Siemens and expect EJ to take the next step.

I think EJ looked pretty good in the games where he got 23+ minutes before his concussion and would probably benefit from more ice time, but it seems Sacco is very cautious about leaning on him.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I think fans are more obsessed with finding EJ a partner than Avs are. I think Avs are fine with Wilson/Siemens and expect EJ to take the next step.

I think EJ looked pretty good in the games where he got 23+ minutes before his concussion and would probably benefit from more ice time, but it seems Sacco is very cautious about leaning on him.

Agree 100%. Personally I think we have our partner fpr EJ in the system already. Siemens/Barrie/Elliott will provide that Dman we need eventually IMO.

 

[MikeC]

Agree 100%. Personally I think we have our partner fpr EJ in the system already. Siemens/Barrie/Elliott will provide that Dman we need eventually IMO.

Barrie and Elliot are right handed dmen so they CAN NOT be EJ's partner

 

[tucker3434]

Agree 100%. Personally I think we have our partner fpr EJ in the system already. Siemens/Barrie/Elliott will provide that Dman we need eventually IMO.

I really hope Siemens is that guy but its way too early to tell, and I don't think we (or Sherman for that matter) can afford to wait the three or four years to find out.

 

[AvsRobin]

Barrie and Elliot are right handed dmen so they CAN NOT be EJ's partner

Well it's not perfect but I think some people here takes this "lefty with a righty, period" thing to far.

 

[Nalens Oga]

Move Stastny now if you can get that dman for him otherwise wait till next season and move $ $'$ once we can trade him assuming his salary isn't a deterrence.

It's a shame we couldn't have traded Stastny for Enstrom last season.

But my thought is that mgmt is dumb and what they'll end up doing is using the draft excuse to not trade Stastny and instead deciding to see if their pick will be high enough to pick this dman.

Also, Johnson needs to step up, better dmen have played with worst partners and have still done well.

 

[InjuredChoker]

Second Tier: (Likely attainable at a reasonable cost, not necessarily elite)
Yandle(5.25x3), Edler (5x6), Kulikov(2.5x1,RFA), Staal, Hjalmarsson(3.5x1), Tyutin[30](4.5x5), Enstrom[28](5.75x5)

Staal, Kulikov would cost a LOT. The other are somewhat plausible.. but maybe not to Avs (Enström).

Tyutin is intriguing. He makes he's mistakes but is mostly good and can pick up the points. He may not be in Jackets future plans. But he has 5 more years at 4.5 mil and he turns 30 this summer. The good thing is that it lowers he's value.

Also has NMC.

Third Tier: (Attainable with + coming back as well, Risk to never be a true #2)
Wiercioch(RFA), Nikitin(2.15x1), Sbisa(2.175x2), Emelin(2x1), Sekera(2.75x2), Leddy(RFA), Erixon (ELCx1), Goligoski(4.6x3), B. Smith(RFA), Kindl(RFA),

I don't see many of those moving. Kindl is possibility but I don't think he will become top pairing dman. He's possibly the cheapest option of those, though.

UFA: Smid, Hainsey (32),

I'd love to have Smid. But there will be many teams pushing for him if he reaches UFA.. price tag could get close to 5 mil. Not sure if it's worth it for purely defensive D, though he is extremely solid.

Prospects Could start as 3rd pairing to get their legs before moving up to first replacing Wilson
(I am not able to say how close they are to NHL ready so this list may be off):
Beaulieu, Reilly, Gormley, Murray, Merrill, Moore, Oleksiak,

I'm assuming you mean Rielly, Morgan and not Columbus prospect Mike Reilly? Anyway, I don't think he's available.

Neither is Murray, Columbus is very high on him, as they should be. Moore could be had, Columbus does have pretty good depth on D and Moore seems to be somewhat falling.

Gormley would be nice but doubt he's moving. Merrill may be available but not sure if he ever becomes top pairing Dman.

 

[The Kingslayer]

Ladislav Smid would not only be perfect for Johnson but for this team. I love how that guy plays.

 

[henchman21]

Smid is a pipedream. I doubt he makes it to free agency, and if he does, be prepared to pay $5+ for a #3. Best bet for a top 4 is to trade Stastny and just have two scoring lines (in that case Jones could be dumped if you want to shed salary with PAP and Downie in the top 6, Palusaj on the 4th but able to move up incase of injuries, just sign a 3rd liner like Ryan Jones) .

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I really hope Siemens is that guy but its way too early to tell, and I don't think we (or Sherman for that matter) can afford to wait the three or four years to find out.

Well this team is still 2 years minimum from being true cup contenders(and even that is being generous). If Siemens is gonna be that guy, we will likely know within the next couple of years rather then 3-4.


AND, as someone else said earlier, the whole Lefty-Righty must thing is blown way out of proportion. If Barrie or Elliott are capable of playing the Left side, and end up being very good Dmen, they can play with EJ.

It doesn't have to be a Lefty.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Smid is a pipedream. I doubt he makes it to free agency, and if he does, be prepared to pay $5+ for a #3. Best bet for a top 4 is to trade Stastny and just have two scoring lines (in that case Jones could be dumped if you want to shed salary with PAP and Downie in the top 6, Palusaj on the 4th but able to move up incase of injuries, just sign a 3rd liner like Ryan Jones) .

5M for Smid really wouldn't be a bad deal. Look at what Matt Carle got.

 

[henchman21]

5M for Smid really wouldn't be a bad deal. Look at what Matt Carle got.

Two totally different players. Their only similarity is that they both play defense. Carle will put up 40 points and be a minute eating PMD. He can also QB a PP and not be a total liability on the PK. Smid is a guy who you can rely on for 20 solid defensive minutes. Plays well on the PK, but can't play on the PP and will struggle to put up 15 points a season. Carle's resume is much closer to $5.5 per than Smid's is to $5m.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Two totally different players. Their only similarity is that they both play defense. Carle will put up 40 points and be a minute eating PMD. He can also QB a PP and not be a total liability on the PK. Smid is a guy who you can rely on for 20 solid defensive minutes. Plays well on the PK, but can't play on the PP and will struggle to put up 15 points a season. Carle's resume is much closer to $5.5 per than Smid's is to $5m.

They may be different players, but they are both generally #3 guys. 5M for a good #3 like Smid who can play a Top pairing role is decent value.

EDIT: Also, I doubt he makes 5M anyway. My guess would be somewhere around 4M, similar contract to Gleason.

 

[henchman21]

They may be different players, but they are both generally #3 guys. 5M for a good #3 like Smid who can play a Top pairing role is decent value.

Who was the last defensemen like Smid to get $5m?

Defensive guys like Smid don't get paid unless they put up 25 points to go along with it. His value is about $3.5-4.25, and if he can be signed for that it will be a very good deal. For $5m you would be signing a younger Hejda, that has less offensive spark (Hejda isn't a great comparison, but an easily relateable one). I have a bad feeling the lack of good defensemen is going to drive up his price drastically.

I won't get into a discussion on what exactly Carle is as a defensemen because it is impossible to remove my bias.

 

[InjuredChoker]

Two totally different players. Their only similarity is that they both play defense. Carle will put up 40 points and be a minute eating PMD. He can also QB a PP and not be a total liability on the PK. Smid is a guy who you can rely on for 20 solid defensive minutes. Plays well on the PK, but can't play on the PP and will struggle to put up 15 points a season. Carle's resume is much closer to $5.5 per than Smid's is to $5m.

Well.. Carle hasn't been doing that much this season .

He's been awful. While not getting the points.

 

[InjuredChoker]

Hainsey got 4.5 mil, Volch 4.25 and Regehr 4 mil... though they may not have been worth it. Certainly looks like it with the latter two.

 

[Grackle Party]

I dont see how the Oil would let Smid get away since they are constantly accused of being soft.

 

[henchman21]

Hainsey got 4.5 mil, Volch 4.25 and Regehr 4 mil... though they may not have been worth it. Certainly looks like it with the latter two.

~$4-4.25m is the going rate for a #3 shutdown guy, anything over that is overpayment.

Hainsey just got off of 34 and 32 point season. Regehr was at 20+ for the 3 years prior and was much better defensively than Smid is now. Volchenkov is a good comparable.

 

[dahrougem2]

I think that with news of Joey Hishon playing his first game, the Avs might be more tempted now than ever to move Stastny. I can't see O'Reilly getting traded, not with the way he's played since arriving and not with the chemistry he and Landeskog have. I have a feeling the organization will keep a real close eye on Hishon and if they like what they see, they'll have confidence to move Stastny either at the draft or in the summer, but no sooner.

As for what we'd garner in return, I think that we'd have to add to Stastny in order to really get someone worth it. One of Elliott/Barrie would have to be included in the deal; don't care which one, Elliott seems to have more offensive flare but less reliable in the defensive zone while Barrie seems to be more of the Brian Rafalski type, steady both ends and chips in with offense, can be PP QB.

Of the names listed, I think that Alexander Edler, Keith Yandle, and Tobias Enstrom are the attainable players for a package involving Stastny + Elliott/Barrie, but I don't know if I'd want those players. I LOVE what I've seen from Wierchioch so far in Ottawa but I wouldn't trade that package for him alone.

Troubling dilemma, because I'm content with moving Stastny but at the right cost, not for a player who will come in and be a 2nd pairing d-man

 

[henchman21]

I think that with news of Joey Hishon playing his first game, the Avs might be more tempted now than ever to move Stastny. I can't see O'Reilly getting traded, not with the way he's played since arriving and not with the chemistry he and Landeskog have. I have a feeling the organization will keep a real close eye on Hishon and if they like what they see, they'll have confidence to move Stastny either at the draft or in the summer, but no sooner.

As for what we'd garner in return, I think that we'd have to add to Stastny in order to really get someone worth it. One of Elliott/Barrie would have to be included in the deal; don't care which one, Elliott seems to have more offensive flare but less reliable in the defensive zone while Barrie seems to be more of the Brian Rafalski type, steady both ends and chips in with offense, can be PP QB.

Of the names listed, I think that Alexander Edler, Keith Yandle, and Tobias Enstrom are the attainable players for a package involving Stastny + Elliott/Barrie, but I don't know if I'd want those players. I LOVE what I've seen from Wierchioch so far in Ottawa but I wouldn't trade that package for him alone.

Troubling dilemma, because I'm content with moving Stastny but at the right cost, not for a player who will come in and be a 2nd pairing d-man

I really hope the Avs don't base trading Stastny off Hishon's health. I'm beyond happy that Hishon is back, but he will be rusty and a ways off still. Besides, I'm not sure if Hishon will play center in the pros. Sgarbossa is a much more likely replacement as a #3C in a sheltered role.

 

[Ivan13]

I dont see how the Oil would let Smid get away since they are constantly accused of being soft.

Maybe he wants to get out?