GBU The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly - Luuuuu Goalied 'em - Win in Philly 5-2 11/1/23

old kummelweck

Registered User
Nov 10, 2003
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Didn't watch the MSG post game today. I know Marty HATES UPL's style of play, what has he mentioned recently? Has he noticed any differences in how he's playing?
He's not the only one. I can't recall which podcast I listened to last season, but it seems like goalies generally see a lot of issues in UPLs game. I think the problem with UPL is his style of play, when he's off, is unforgiving. He had a lot of work to do in order to evolve at the NHL level. Rumor has it he has been putting that work in.
 
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old kummelweck

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Nov 10, 2003
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Know what? I'm gonna give a "G" to the refs. They missed a few each way but they at least called it both ways and nothing egregiously wrong, which is the first game this year I've watched where I can say both.
Not me. It seems like the refs get hypnotized by an obstruction game and build up tolerance to more and more egregious interference as the game goes on. Obstruction-as-game-plan seems to produce more tolerance for the team shutting down offense than the same infractions done by the team that is getting shut down and not executing that game plan.

1000 game simulations? It must be true.
 
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old kummelweck

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Nov 10, 2003
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Those simulations back up the thread title.

I know it has been a while, but the Sabres won a game they did not deserve to win because UPL goalie'd the other team.

We are not used to that happening for the Sabres as opposed to to the Sabres.
The graphic is kind of meaningless without a source. Maybe everyone else recognizes it, I don't.
 

Dubi Doo

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Aug 27, 2008
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Those simulations back up the thread title.

I know it has been a while, but the Sabres won a game they did not deserve to win because UPL goalie'd the other team.

We are not used to that happening for the Sabres as opposed to to the Sabres.
The last one I remember is Andy against Florida last season. Didn't he have a 50+ game shutout while we struggled to put up 30 shots?

Also, has anyone else noticed Samuelsson making more boneheaded turnovers than usual? It seems like every game he has a couple hand grenade moments.
 

Jim Bob

RIP RJ
Feb 27, 2002
56,206
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Rochester, NY
The last one I remember is Andy against Florida last season. Didn't he have a 50+ game shutout while we struggled to put up 30 shots?

Also, has anyone else noticed Samuelsson making more boneheaded turnovers than usual? It seems like every game he has a couple hand grenade moments.

Florida outshot the Sabres 50-33 in a 3-1 Sabres win.

There used to be a "Stolen Wins" criteria and I do not see anywhere that tracks it.
 

Royal Thunder

Frolunda Mode
Feb 21, 2012
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That’s the sloppiest they have played on the road in quite some time. Still got a W because our shooting talent is off the charts. Bad game but it makes up for the undeserved L vs the Habs, let’s hope they learn from it and come out stronger tomorrow.
 

K8fool

Registered User
Sep 30, 2018
3,126
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stomach of giant parasitic worm
G: UPL

B: Cozens, Krebs, and Power all had "moments" in this game. Sometimes several.

U: Gave up 40 shots to the Flyers.
Everytime a player puts on a ridiculous ( slightly unnatural) ammount of weight in the offseason ( makes them look strong and ultimately gives confidence blowing up their own balloon)., it takes an amount of time before they are healed and nimble again .
Cozens looks exactly as he is, like someone who tied two ten pound bags of water to both sides of himself , and is frustratedly angry that all the tools , quickness etc that gave him an advantage over the reat of the league are temporarily gone . But nobody can push him off the puck that he's currently to slow to get . Yet benson is 170 soaking wet and can hang . Ah the learning curve of insecure youth . Dahlin lost a season to the Ahhnold , no girly man workout program
 
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dire wolf

immaculate vibes
May 9, 2006
6,188
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Out in LA
1000 game simulations? It must be true.
It's just a probability analysis based on analysis of expected goals. There is nothing "true" or "false" about it.

The "Deserve To Win O'Meter" is a feature on our live game pages which shows the each team's chance of winning the game had the game been re-enacted, except with average goaltending for both teams. The meter works by simulatating all of the individual expected goals that occured in the game. For example, consider the scenario where the home team has taken one shot worth 0.5 expected goals and the away team has taken one shot worth 0.1 expected goals.​

It's just another way of displaying the comparison of expected goals between the 2 teams.
 

brian_griffin

"Eric Cartman?"
May 10, 2007
16,696
7,927
In the Panderverse
The awful - 15 shots on goal? (That’s what it was when my feed died.)
I remember part way through the 3rd, the 3rd pd shots were 11-3 in favor of PHI, and BUF had scored on 2 of those 3 shots.
Yeah, this was the 2nd game of the suspension. If nothing else, it will balance the TOI on the back end more.
Tonight's line -

Sammy 26:07
Dahlin 23:49
Power 23:45
Joki 19:28
EJ 16:20
Bryson 8:23

Can't do that for long, we know where that leads.
Clearly, the Sabres won because Rasmus Ristolainen played <21:00.

(I know he is out injured.)
Biro is same age as Tage and older then Mitts
And showing everyone everywhere that good things happen when you go to the net.
UPL is worth trying to develop correctly. Get rid of Comrie, send Levi to Roch, bring in a legit starter for UPL to learn from.
Translation: If humankind stops all fossil fuels usage immediately, which is easy to do and from which all humankind will only prosper, and not suffer, the earth will only warm by 1.5 degrees F by 2050. Indisputable Fact.
 

old kummelweck

Registered User
Nov 10, 2003
25,236
5,336
It's just a probability analysis based on analysis of expected goals. There is nothing "true" or "false" about it.

The "Deserve To Win O'Meter" is a feature on our live game pages which shows the each team's chance of winning the game had the game been re-enacted, except with average goaltending for both teams. The meter works by simulatating all of the individual expected goals that occured in the game. For example, consider the scenario where the home team has taken one shot worth 0.5 expected goals and the away team has taken one shot worth 0.1 expected goals.​

It's just another way of displaying the comparison of expected goals between the 2 teams.
People need to be more skeptical of this stuff. My initial jab was about a stat with no citation, which was cleared up. After visiting the site, my only take-away was I hope people aren't leveraging that information for gambling.
 

Jim Bob

RIP RJ
Feb 27, 2002
56,206
35,371
Rochester, NY
People need to be more skeptical of this stuff. My initial jab was about a stat with no citation, which was cleared up. After visiting the site, my only take-away was I hope people aren't leveraging that information for gambling.
If anyone leverages any sort of metrics that are designed to take goaltending performance out of the equation, then they deserve to lose lots of money.
 

Ralonzo

Я хочу!
Nov 6, 2006
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wasn't that the ESPN crew on Sunday
Nah it was Gretzky and Carter talking about how players like that can't be touched and how Colorado needs to get MacDermid into the lineup so liberties aren't taken and on and on. It's WEDNESDAY. Makar is PLAYING. Jeez. Still making it sound like Okposo drop-kicked him into the wall, trying to gin something up. "he missed time last year and you just cant do that to the best defenseman in the world"
 

Ralonzo

Я хочу!
Nov 6, 2006
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Virginia
Not me. It seems like the refs get hypnotized by an obstruction game and build up tolerance to more and more egregious interference as the game goes on. Obstruction-as-game-plan seems to produce more tolerance for the team shutting down offense than the same infractions done by the team that is getting shut down and not executing that game plan.

They got Philthy for 2 dummy penalties which is 2 more than they usually get for running around like idiots all night between and after the whistles. I'll take it. Normally it's they crosscheck continually and take 3 strides and board the guy after the pass and elbows to the head, which they did all night of course, but at least the most egregious over-the-line stuff got called. Normally it's the Sabre that shoves back at someone who swung a stick at his head that goes to the box.

1000 game simulations? It must be true.

Simulations are science now, you know.
 

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