The Fall of Nail Yakupov

[El Cohiba]

As a long time member of this forum, I remember the days of #failfornail and the hype he generated in an otherwise abysmal draft. I was a believer in Yak, as I projected him to be a poor man's Bure with his shot and his speed.

Now, we all know how his NHL career turned out and this topic has been beaten to death throughout a number of threads over the past few years. What baffles me is just how far he has fallen off-- I say this given a look at the stats:
-As an 18 year old fresh out of junior and the draft, Nail put up 18 points in 22 KHL games during the lock out in 2012-2013. He wasn't surrounded with top-tier talent here, lending credit to his skill.
He goes on to put up 31 points in 48 NHL games with the Oilers, far and away his most productive NHL season. Granted, his shooting percentage this year was unsustainable.
-Fast forward through the rest of his NHL career and most recently he put up 20 points in 46 KHL games at age 25, only to be traded for a guy none of us have probably heard of.

So, what gives? How does a guy fall off so badly from being nearly a PPG KHL player at age 18 to a mediocre player in the same league seven years later? Presumably, he has gotten bigger, stronger, and more mature over the years. Age wise, he should be in his prime.

I figured he'd have a few monster KHL seasons and be picked up by Seattle or a rebuilding team-- I am at a loss for how after seven years of development the kid is statistically a much worse hockey player. Privy to read everyone's thoughts on the matter. Are Nail's days in hockey numbered?

Click to read more...

 

[oilexport]

Shooting ability was good. Weak on his skates and overpowered in the NHL. If he got stronger, he would have made it.

 

[Freudian]

The physical advantage he had pre-draft wasn't there when he started playing against men. Sounds like he's rather uncoachable combined with low hockey IQ, which makes it hard for him to get a spot on a team when he's not good enough to be a top six forward.

 

[Agent Zub]

The physical advantage he had pre-draft wasn't there when he started playing against men. Sounds like he's rather uncoachable combined with low hockey IQ, which makes it hard for him to get a spot on a team when he's not good enough to be a top six forward.

It doesn't explain how he got worse.

Imo the oilers just messed up his development and psychology. Now even his instincts as a scorer are inferior to when he was in juniors.

 

[Del Preston]

Without trying to turn this into a "f*** Dallas Eakins" thread, I still think he would have turned out at least okay had anyone but an egotistical asshat like Eakins been his coach. He needed someone who would work with him. Ralph Krueger was doing a pretty decent job bringing him along in 2013 and Yakupov said he really enjoyed playing for him.

Eakins never gave him a chance. He was benched in the 2013-14 season opener. Shortly thereafter he got healthy scratched. He was terrified of making a mistake because it meant he'd be sat, while other young players on the team with questionable habits didn't miss shifts. Then he started getting benched for playing too good (seriously): Eakins took him out of a tie game in Florida with ten minutes left because he "wanted to end Nail's night on a positive note." In Chicago a few days later Yakupov scored to put the Oilers up by a goal in the second period and was rewarded with 31 seconds of ice time over the next 12:31 of game time plus stoppages and intermission. He was sitting for 35-40 minutes because he scored a goal. This kind of "coaching" went on for the entirety of Eakins' tenure (1.5 seasons).

When Todd Nelson took over he put Yakupov with Derek Roy. He was a coach on the ice for Yakupov. (Eakins killed a trade for Roy earlier in the season despite there being only two NHL centres on the roster. When Eakins was finally fired the Oilers circled back and traded for Roy.) Derek Roy did more coaching than Eakins ever did. Yakupov finished the season with 20 points in 28 games and looked like he had as a rookie under Krueger. The following season (2015-16) he earned a spot on McDavid's line and looked good until both players got injured. I don't think they were put back together when they returned. He requested a trade in September 2016 and I haven't really followed him much since so I can't comment further.

 

[Mr Tadakichi]

Without trying to turn this into a "f*** Dallas Eakins" thread, I still think he would have turned out at least okay had anyone but an egomaniac asshat like Eakins been his coach. Ralph Krueger was doing a pretty decent job bringing him along in 2013 and Yakupov said he really enjoyed playing for him.

Eakins never gave him a chance. He was benched in the 2013-14 season opener. Shortly thereafter he got healthy scratched. He was terrified of making a mistake because it meant he'd be sat, while other young players on the team with questionable habits didn't miss shifts. Then he started getting benched for playing too good (seriously): Eakins took him out of a tie game in Florida with ten minutes left because he "wanted to end Nail's night on a positive note." Then in Chicago Yakupov scored to put the Oilers up by a goal in the second period and didn't see the ice again until 31 minutes later. This kind of "coaching" went on for the entirety of Eakins' time (1.5 seasons).

When Todd Nelson took over he put Yakupov with Derek Roy. He was a coach on the ice for Yakupov. (If you are wondering why Eakins never tried those two together, it's because Eakins killed a trade for Roy earlier in the season and didn't want him despite there being only two NHL centres on the roster. When Eakins was finally fired the Oilers circled back and traded for Roy). Yakupov finished the season with 20 points in 28 games and looked like he had as a rookie under Krueger. The following season (2015-16) he earned a spot on McDavid's line and looked good until both players got injured. I don't think they were put back together when they returned. He requested a trade in September 2016 and I haven't really followed him much since so I can't comment.

You could have just said f*** Dallas Eakins.

 

[Ctrain2k]

You could have just said f*** Dallas Eakins.

I’ll say it F*** DALLAS EAKINS!!!!

 

[Kuhta]

Yakupov’s on ice IQ is very disappointing for a top pick. People mentioned his physics being a problem. I don’t see that at all. Just like Yak does not see his linemates on ice.

 

[Akrapovince]

It doesn't explain how be got worse.

Imo the oilers just messed up his development and psychology. Now even his instincts as a scorer are inferior to when he was in juniors.

Confidence.

 

[izzy]

no hockey IQ, makes some questionable decisions. i think even then, on a team really lacking any talent his speed and shot he could still be ok in the nhl

i was hoping hed get a better shot with the blues because there were some glimpses of what once made him a high end prospect. only occasionally however.

 

[11Messier]

The problem was that he was his own worst enemy. I remember many instances where he let slip out that defence was not his job. He didn't care about learning systems. He just thought he was so good, that he could score enough that the coaches would get off his back. The problem with that was the rest of the team was playing the coaches system, and he was somewhere on an island by himself making both himself and his team mates look bad. As his scoring dried up and you see the faces of his frustrated teammates 0ver and 0ver, the coach played him less. Unfortunately he was too stubborn to listen to anyone and did not want to be sent down to the minors to learn anything. He was going to show everyone how good he really was when he got traded to a real team. We all know how that went down and the rest is history.

 

[Kamiccolo]

Turns out "Fail for Nail" was more prophetic than slogan.

 

[GAGLine]

I suspect he's mostly just going through the motions now to earn a paycheck.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Confidence.

 

[The Panther]

Not trying to sound all smart, but the first couple of games I watched Yakupov play back in early 2013 (and he had 5 goals in his first 8 NHL games!), I immediately thought, "They picked the wrong guy."

It seemed to me, right off the bat, that he lacked hockey IQ for processing the game at the NHL level. He could do it at OHL-speed, but for some guys the NHL seems to be one speed-notch above their ceiling. I thought he had a rather poor shot, too, which doesn't bode well for a goal scorer. I don't think physicality was an issue. He skated well.

In his brief stops in St. Louis and Colorado, they were only giving him 10 minutes per game. But before that, in Edmonton, he scored 111 points in 252 games -- and 71% of his points were at even-strength. So, while that's hugely disappointing for a 1st overall offensive forward after four years, it's still reasonably good for an average NHL regular forward. I agree that's it's somewhat surprising that he's fallen out of the NHL entirely.

I would guess there are some personality / psychological issues with his being able to live in North America and his accordant level of motivation at the high-pressure NHL level. I say this because he surely could be at least playing in the NHL and making a nice paycheck today if he really, really wanted to. A top pick should have some options, but I guess he's just removed himself from that. Or maybe he just really wants to be close to home.

 

[LeProspector]

i remember reading an article from Bleacher Report leading up to the draft, they were ranking every 1st overall pick in NHL history; they had Yakupov ranked in the 30’s and he never even played a game in the NHL... i thought that was really odd. The article said “There is no way Yakupov can be as bad as the guys below him”. Turns out yes, yes there is a way. I always think about that article when thinking about Yakupov.

 

[Cloned]

I made some long wordy threads/posts a while back detailing how I thought Nail Yakupov represented the first major scouting failure in the "modern scouting" era. That is, the era of close scrutiny and in-depth scouting (so Daigle doesn't count because his draft is from before all this modern scouting started).

Every scouting service got it wrong on this guy, and got it wrong in so many ways, all in spectacular fashion.

They said his shot was great - it wasn't.

They said his skating was great - it wasn't.

They said his playmaking and hockey sense were good - they weren't.

His hands were average.

The only thing they got right was they said he had a good motor - which he did. Guy would pump his legs out there every shift. Problem was he never knew where to be on the ice and he didn't have the individual puck skills to actually beat defenders once he had the puck.

 

[Viqsi]

I can't help but think of Nikita Filatov.

 

[WATTAGE4451]

I made some long wordy threads/posts a while back detailing how I thought Nail Yakupov represented the first major scouting failure in the "modern scouting" era. That is, the era of close scrutiny and in-depth scouting (so Daigle doesn't count because his draft is from before all this modern scouting started).

Every scouting service got it wrong on this guy, and got it wrong in so many ways, all in spectacular fashion.

They said his shot was great - it wasn't.

They said his skating was great - it wasn't.

They said his playmaking and hockey sense were good - they weren't.

His hands were average.

The only thing they got right was they said he had a good motor - which he did. Guy would pump his legs out there every shift. Problem was he never knew where to be on the ice and he didn't have the individual puck skills to actually beat defenders once he had the puck.

I thought his skating was fine when he could figure our where he was going or wanted to go but he was just confused most the time.

. The playmaking and hockey sense the experrs were laughably wrong about.

I dont think ive seen any player look more lost and confused every single shift that yakupov. He absolutely had no idea what the hell he was doing at any given time.

 

[Anders Cain]

Lost and confused was how his time with the avs was...

Shotwise, the guy could rocket the puck. His accuracy wasn't there tho. His motor was good (even with his weird skating stride) and he was willing to mix it up and get in people's faces.. But too tiny.

I remember a shift (don't remember the game or team playing against) where he totally blew his defensive coverage coming back over the avs blue line. Like he didn't even look like he played hockey, let alone in the nhl, with how bad he blew his coverage...

I had minor optimism that he might be able to revive and turn into a 2nd line tweener option like Anthony duclair getting minutes on a bad team but he just fell out of favour with the defensive miscues. When he wasn't scoring he wasn't worth a roster spot, because he didn't really do anything else well.

All leads back to lack of hockey iq. The kid just doesn't have a brain to think the game well enough at that level

 

[SI90]

Generational Goal celebrator though so he has that going for him.

Its funny, I remember a couple of posters on the isles board swearing he was all tools no tool box. I watched him in Sarnia and the world juniors and thought he was going to be an elite winger at the next level.

 

[Emerz]

He skated around the ice like a pack of bees was chasing him, just skating around aimlessly without the ability to process the game at an NHL level.

 

[sepHF]

all tools no toolbox. Kid is clueless on the ice, doesn't know where to stand, doesn't know how to play defense, doesn't know how to use his teammates.

He just doesn't have the brain to play with the big boys

 

[Rad Dude83]

once he gets to toronto or nyc he will be fine.

 

[LeonDraisaitl]

This one bothered me a lot more than regular Oiler busts. I wanted him to succeed so damn bad. All his interviews he seemed likeable so maybe that’s why I don’t know