The downfall of Finnish NHL goaltending (spoiler: the future looks pretty bleak)

[SoupyFIN]

This past season 14 Finnish goalies suited up for at least one NHL game. Next season that number is going to hover around 8-9 (depends whether Rask retires and do any of the AHL guys get a chance). Two years from now looking at the worst possible scenario, as in everyone continuing their career paths based on the last few years, we'll be lucky to have four. Not fourteen like this past season, but four.

Saros is a safe bet to stick around despite his size.
Lankinen had a good rookie season, I don't see why he'd be out of a job.
Kähkönen tailed off towards the end, but should be in the mix.
Luukkonen might just make it purely because Buffalo doesn't have anyone better, obviously the potential is there as well.

I think the guys (Annunen for example) about to start in the AHL are too young and need more seasoning, but that's my four I'd predict to have an NHL job in two years. Now you might be looking at that and wondering where some guys are, I'll explain.

Rask has more than likely retired by this point, it might even happen this season.
Raanta has been injury prone for years and is getting up there in age, I think he goes back to Europe eventually.
Koskinen is KHL bound.
Korpisalo hasn't really done anything special outside of that bubble run, he needs to improve to stick around.
Husso same thing as Korpisalo with even less to show for.
Others probably aren't even worth mentioning.

TL;DR, we're f***ed. Well, not completely f***ed, but especially the top end goaltending is going to take a hit when Rask retires. Where's our next Kipper or Rinne?

Click to read more...

 

[JabbaJabba]

I believe a lot of the Finnish goalie coaches went to the KHL, which explains the amount of great Russian goaltenders.

Anyway, I think the future is fine. Maybe there will be fewer elite Finnish goalies, though I am happy that they have improved in other areas and there are elite forwards and defencemen. There are young goalies like Annunen and Meriläinen and who knows if Lehtinen goes to the NHL eventually. Goalkeepers are so hard to predict, how their develop. However, I feel like there are a couple guys who will be starting goalies and stars even. Currently there's a period of change going on when the old stars fade and new ones rise.

After last season I am quite optimistic about the future even based on how Lankinen and Kähkönen performed. They had some growing pains but they'll get there. Saros was fantastic, Korpisalo is fine and I think he can still find a next level in his game. I think Husso will be a back up on NHL level, which is fine. Then we have Luukkonen who will get his shot soon. These guys need some seasoning, that's all. Finnish national team will not lack good starting goalies.

 

[Albatros]

Luukkonen is 22, Kähkönen 24, everyone else 26 or older. For them the time to perform is now.

 

[Stoat]

There's no downfall in production. Usually Finland has had something like 6 to 8 regular NHL goalies per season. Last season there were 10 goalies who played more than 10 games. Saros is right now one of the better young goalies in the entire league. Adding to that, there are also many great junior goalies in the pipeline.

There is no decline in number of regular NHL goalies or promising young goalies.

 

[Conspiracy Theorist]

I disagree. Maybe a slight downgrade but nothing drastic. Lankinen, Saros, Raanta, Kähkönen, Luukkonen can take the mantle.

 

[alko]

Hey, dont you think, you are greedy? We have on and we are lucky for that.

 

[Sanf]

This past season 14 Finnish goalies suited up for at least one NHL game. Next season that number is going to hover around 8-9 (depends whether Rask retires and do any of the AHL guys get a chance). Two years from now looking at the worst possible scenario, as in everyone continuing their career paths based on the last few years, we'll be lucky to have four. Not fourteen like this past season, but four.

Saros is a safe bet to stick around despite his size.
Lankinen had a good rookie season, I don't see why he'd be out of a job.
Kähkönen tailed off towards the end, but should be in the mix.
Luukkonen might just make it purely because Buffalo doesn't have anyone better, obviously the potential is there as well.

I think the guys (Annunen for example) about to start in the AHL are too young and need more seasoning, but that's my four I'd predict to have an NHL job in two years. Now you might be looking at that and wondering where some guys are, I'll explain.

Rask has more than likely retired by this point, it might even happen this season.
Raanta has been injury prone for years and is getting up there in age, I think he goes back to Europe eventually.
Koskinen is KHL bound.
Korpisalo hasn't really done anything special outside of that bubble run, he needs to improve to stick around.
Husso same thing as Korpisalo with even less to show for.
Others probably aren't even worth mentioning.

TL;DR, we're f***ed. Well, not completely f***ed, but especially the top end goaltending is going to take a hit when Rask retires. Where's our next Kipper or Rinne?

It will be a big year for Finnish goalies. I have being predicting doomsday on Finnish goaltending and things does look like much better than I expected.

Always liked Lankinen and Kähkönen, but to be fair I did not see them being NHL starting goalies or even regulars. Both have even exceeded my expextacions. Next season is big for them. Both have taken almost everything from the chances given to them, but both still have things to prove. Lankinen had very good 20+ games streak, but his techinique and confidence seemed to take hit at the last part of season (he really played small). Challenging Fleury from 1b starting point is good thing I believe.

Never been huge on Korpisalo, but he has exceeded my expectacions too. But most of his career he has looked backup.

Raanta sadly seems to be too fragile. Husso is another goalie I haven´t been big fan. Blues has given him quite a lot of trust and opportunities (getting backup job with zero NHL games... Keeping it after he had quite a porblematic start). Koskinen will be probably out soon.

Saros is obviously the best bet. Playing full season like the starting goalie he was the second part of last season. Big season to show that he can consistently play like that and he may end up being top 10 goalie in the league.

I haven´t really seen much of Luukkonen, but his tecgnique always seem to have been fragile. I´m bit worried that throwing him to wolves isn´t a good thing. He has so much raw talent. I hope he can keep it together.

Out of other prospects I quite liked Filip Lindberg before he left to NA. And apparently made good progress. Not a bif fan of Annunen. I haven´t really seen that much of the draftees from last two year so can´t say as much about them. that I would like.

The competition has became much tougher. There is nothihng superior in Finnish goaltending coaching anymore. 2-3 solid starting obviously would be nice.

 

[Hiukafen]

Wins of goalies born 1994-2001

1994 TOP5
190 RUS Vasilevski
127 CAN Murray
68 FIN Korpisalo
21 CAN Driedger
21 LAT Merzlikins

1995 TOP5
76 FIN Saros
59 CAN Jarry
34 USA Demko
24 RUS Shestyorkin
17 FIN Lankinen

1996 TOP5
46 CAN Blackwood
43 RUS Georgiev
21 CZE Vanecek
19 FIN Kahkonen
19 CAN Hill

1997
29 RUS Samsonov
2 CZE Vladar
1 SWE Werner

1998 TOP5
49 CAN Hart
11 USA Oettinger
7 USA Swayman
5 SWE Gustavsson
3 CZE Korenar

1999
2 USA Primeau
1 FIN Luukkonen

2000
-

2001
4 USA Knight

I cannot see anything dramatic here. Those bleak years were rather 1988-1993.

1988 TOP5
297 RUS Bobrovsky
251 RUS Varlamov
205 CAN Mason
173 CAN Reimer
161 CAN Bernier
--
58 FIN Koskinen

1989 TOP5
289 CAN Holtby
226 DEN Andersen
93 FIN Raanta
68 USA Kinkaid
49 CAN Dell

1990 TOP5
186 CAN Jones
159 CAN Allen
132 SWE Markstrom
106 CAN Kuemper
59 SWE Nilsson

1991 TOP5
129 SWE Lehner
109 GER Grubauer
32 USA DeSmith
15 FIN Ortio
9 CAN Berube

1992 TOP5
128 CZE Mrazek
64 CZE Rittich
58 CAN Domingue
40 USA Campbell
34 CAN Pickard
--
4 FIN Gibson

1993 TOP5
173 USA Hellebuyck
148 USA Gibson
72 CAN Binnington
50 SWE Ullmark
36 CAN Subban

 

[Hiukafen]

Luukkonen is 22, Kähkönen 24, everyone else 26 or older. For them the time to perform is now.

If we talk about goalies born 1994-96 which are 24-26 y/o players right now I would say only Vasilevski and Murray has really proven something. Vasi is elite like everyone knows. But if their time is NOW to perform how many of these non-Finnish guys below you think have performed or proven already more than Saros, Lankinen, Kahkonen and Korpisalo? At least I am not confident saying Jarry, Demko and Shestyorkin will have necessarily brighter future than Saros and Lankinen. Or Blackwood, Georgie, Vanecek and Hill having rather than Kahkonen?

1994 TOP5
190 RUS Vasilevski
127 CAN Murray
68 FIN Korpisalo
21 CAN Driedger
21 LAT Merzlikins

1995 TOP5
76 FIN Saros
59 CAN Jarry
34 USA Demko
24 RUS Shestyorkin
17 FIN Lankinen

1996 TOP5
46 CAN Blackwood
43 RUS Georgiev
21 CZE Vanecek
19 FIN Kahkonen
19 CAN Hill

 

[FiLe]

Goalies mature more slowly than skaters - a goalie who's around 25 can still be a rookie, while skaters of that age should be close if not already in their primes. Let's take a closer look of the breakthrough years of the previous crop of Finnish elite goalies:

Miikka Kiprusoff (b. 1976) didn't get his career off the ground until traded from the Sharks to the Flames in the 2003-04. He was 27.

Niklas Bäckström (b. 1978) did manage to make a splash in the league already in his rookie season with the Wild - which was 2006-07. He was 28.

Pekka Rinne (b. 1982) competed for the Predators' starting job with Dan Ellis, winning that battle in the 2008-09 season. He was 26.

Antti Niemi (b. 1983) came out of nowhere and backstopped the Blackhawks to a Stanley Cup in the 2009-10 season. He was 27.

There's also Vesa Toskala (b. 1977) who didn't get a chance to be a legit starter in the league until the 2007-08 season, when he was already 30. And Antero Niittymäki (b. 1980) came almost out of nowhere at the age of 26 with his elite performance at the 2006 olympics. Unfortunately he was riddled by numerous injuries and his NHL career really never went anywhere.

Only a single goalie from this generation, Kari Lehtonen (b. 1983) was practically guaranteed stardom from the junior age. And the same can be said about the ones born in the late 80s - only Tuukka Rask was a junior phenom, while his age peers like Raanta and Koskinen have taken the long road into the league.

As for the supposed "bleak" future of Finnish goaltending, well... let's take a look at the five oldest Finnish goalies who are expected to get regular starts in the league this season:

Tuukka Rask (b. 1987)
Mikko Koskinen (b. 1988)
Antti Raanta (b. 1989)
Joonas Korpisalo (b. 1994)
Juuse Saros (b. 1995)

Take a long, hard look at the line between Raanta and Korpisalo. Just like there was a gap in elite Finnish skater talent in the late 1980s, there's a gaping hole in the elite Finnish goalie talent in the early 1990s. Only three* Finnish goalies born in that gap have got at least one start in the league: Joni Ortio (b. 1991), Christopher Gibson (b. 1992) and Sami Aittokallio (b. 1992). *edit: Four. There's also Kasimir Kaskisuo (b. 1993). And Korpisalo and Saros each already have more starts than those three four combined.

The bleak future is more like a bleak present - the goalies who are around 30 and should be in their prime right now are nonexistent. The time we should have been concerned about the future of the Finnish goaltending was about five years ago, but back then we had a fair number of 30-something goalies in their prime, which blinded us from the lack of elite talent among the early 90-borns. Of the names we have now, only Korpisalo is one we could be somewhat concerned about - but as the past examples show, it's not too late even for him yet. We really can't say what will become of him before he gets out of Columbus, as that's obviously not where his future lies after they signed Merzlikins to an extension.

 

[Sanf]

Goalies mature more slowly than skaters - a goalie who's around 25 can still be a rookie, while skaters of that age should be close if not already in their primes. Let's take a closer look of the breakthrough years of the previous crop of Finnish elite goalies:

Miikka Kiprusoff (b. 1976) didn't get his career off the ground until traded from the Sharks to the Flames in the 2003-04. He was 27.

Niklas Bäckström (b. 1978) did manage to make a splash in the league already in his rookie season with the Wild - which was 2006-07. He was 28.

Pekka Rinne (b. 1982) competed for the Predators' starting job with Dan Ellis, winning that battle in the 2008-09 season. He was 26.

Antti Niemi (b. 1983) came out of nowhere and backstopped the Blackhawks to a Stanley Cup in the 2009-10 season. He was 27.

There's also Vesa Toskala (b. 1977) who didn't get a chance to be a legit starter in the league until the 2007-08 season, when he was already 30. And Antero Niittymäki (b. 1980) came almost out of nowhere at the age of 26 with his elite performance at the 2006 olympics. Unfortunately he was riddled by numerous injuries and his NHL career really never went anywhere.

Only a single goalie from this generation, Kari Lehtonen (b. 1983) was practically guaranteed stardom from the junior age. And the same can be said about the ones born in the late 80s - only Tuukka Rask was a junior phenom, while his age peers like Raanta and Koskinen have taken the long road into the league.

As for the supposed "bleak" future of Finnish goaltending, well... let's take a look at the five oldest Finnish goalies who are expected to get regular starts in the league this season:

Tuukka Rask (b. 1987)
Mikko Koskinen (b. 1988)
Antti Raanta (b. 1989)
Joonas Korpisalo (b. 1994)
Juuse Saros (b. 1995)

Take a long, hard look at the line between Raanta and Korpisalo. Just like there was a gap in elite Finnish skater talent in the late 1980s, there's a gaping hole in the elite Finnish goalie talent in the early 1990s. Only three* Finnish goalies born in that gap have got at least one start in the league: Joni Ortio (b. 1991), Christopher Gibson (b. 1992) and Sami Aittokallio (b. 1992). *edit: Four. There's also Kasimir Kaskisuo (b. 1993). And Korpisalo and Saros each already have more starts than those three four combined.

The bleak future is more like a bleak present - the goalies who are around 30 and should be in their prime right now are nonexistent. The time we should have been concerned about the future of the Finnish goaltending was about five years ago, but back then we had a fair number of 30-something goalies in their prime, which blinded us from the lack of elite talent among the early 90-borns. Of the names we have now, only Korpisalo is one we could be somewhat concerned about - but as the past examples show, it's not too late even for him yet. We really can't say what will become of him before he gets out of Columbus, as that's obviously not where his future lies after they signed Merzlikins to an extension.

I agree that it looks better than it looked 5-7 years ago (but I do believe we were having that discussion here already then). I liked both Kähkönen and Lankinen as junios, but I may have underestimated their upside.

And I beleive looking back often gives us answers from the future. But being goalie enthusiast for long time... Kiprusoff and Toskala (yes) were both really talented goalies. It was different time. Prior to them only 4 Finnish U20 goalies had been drafted. And even them through very small sample size from junior games (Paavola and Takko had great games against Soviet Union for example). Scouting was in childshoes. And goalies (or players othwerwise) rarely left to NA at very young age. Kiprusoff had two times declined offer from Sharks.

Also it was turning point in goaltending when the goalies you list were coming to NHL. Old version of standup was going out. There were some seriously mediocre shot blocking goalies in NHL. The competition from Europe wasn´t that great either. So Finnish goaltending could shine through very good goaltending coaching that made good ground to build. If you look Kiprusoff in 98-99 finals there is lot of more oldschool stand up goaltending in his save selection. He did learn quite a lot in NA. Addition of butterfly slides and so on. So yes it took time, but the talent was always there.

What I´m trying to say with this rambling is that goalies aren´t voodoo and you can´t just expect someone to come up. The competition at the moment is tough and Finland do not have the edge. And neither we have really that much top end talent. But it isn´t the end of world as I predicted five six years ago.

 

[Sanf]

Currently the amount of foreign goalies in Liiga is bit worrying. Granted many of our top European goalies are playing in KHL and still some in Elitserien. But there was a time when we had depth to fill half of Elitserien with our average and slightly better than avarage goalies.

 

[Raimo Sillanpää]

More worrying is the number of Finnish goalie coaches coaching abroad. They have the skill set that helped create the Rask, Toskala etc generation, now they are cashing in instead of being with Liiga teams coaching the next 16 year old prospect

 

[adsfan]

It will be a big year for Finnish goalies. I have being predicting doomsday on Finnish goaltending and things does look like much better than I expected.

Always liked Lankinen and Kähkönen, but to be fair I did not see them being NHL starting goalies or even regulars. Both have even exceeded my expextacions. Next season is big for them. Both have taken almost everything from the chances given to them, but both still have things to prove. Lankinen had very good 20+ games streak, but his techinique and confidence seemed to take hit at the last part of season (he really played small). Challenging Fleury from 1b starting point is good thing I believe.

Never been huge on Korpisalo, but he has exceeded my expectacions too. But most of his career he has looked backup.

Raanta sadly seems to be too fragile. Husso is another goalie I haven´t been big fan. Blues has given him quite a lot of trust and opportunities (getting backup job with zero NHL games... Keeping it after he had quite a porblematic start). Koskinen will be probably out soon.

Saros is obviously the best bet. Playing full season like the starting goalie he was the second part of last season. Big season to show that he can consistently play like that and he may end up being top 10 goalie in the league.

I haven´t really seen much of Luukkonen, but his tecgnique always seem to have been fragile. I´m bit worried that throwing him to wolves isn´t a good thing. He has so much raw talent. I hope he can keep it together.

Out of other prospects I quite liked Filip Lindberg before he left to NA. And apparently made good progress. Not a bif fan of Annunen. I haven´t really seen that much of the draftees from last two year so can´t say as much about them. that I would like.

The competition has became much tougher. There is nothihng superior in Finnish goaltending coaching anymore. 2-3 solid starting obviously would be nice.

Saros is in the top 10 in the NHL right now. He has 20 wins (2nd), save percentage (11th), saves (1st), GAA (15th). Nashville is leading their division at the moment.

 

[Sanf]

More worrying is the number of Finnish goalie coaches coaching abroad. They have the skill set that helped create the Rask, Toskala etc generation, now they are cashing in instead of being with Liiga teams coaching the next 16 year old prospect

Sure there are Finnish goaltending coach abroad. But I don´t think its that significant anyomore. Three guys are in KHL. DEL has Vehanen, Näckel and Lindfors. One in ICEHL. I have not followed so closely during the last few seasons so I don´t have full list.

 

[Sanf]

Saros is in the top 10 in the NHL right now. He has 20 wins (2nd), save percentage (11th), saves (1st), GAA (15th). Nashville is leading their division at the moment.

Yes he has been great this season too. He has been pretty consistent. I have been always biggest Saros fan, but I usually want to see few seasons of certain level of play. Similarly one down year doesn´t mean that much to me. There are so many factors affecting goaltending.

 

[heksagon]

Saros is ridiculously good technically. He has to be, for his size. Watching his lateral movement, rebound control and on ice play is a thing of beauty. His only weakness seems to be high shots sometimes.

 

[EXTRAS]

Kahkonen has the 2nd best sv percentage in the nhl since Nov 22nd, I believe. Only behind shestyorkin.

 

[geisterpanthers]

Finnish goaltending never recovered from the retirement of Kari Lehtonen.

 

[Stubu]

Ville Husso is 12-3-2, 1.97, .936 this season for Blues.

19/49 GP is only backup workload pace, but it's obviously a really solid performance at that. So far...

 

[Jersey Fan 12]

In looking at the success of Pelicans was wondering about the young goalie Jasper Patrikainen. Not much experience in terms of Finnish junior team but his numbers are impressive.

Is he someone worth keeping an eye on?

 

[Jersey Fan 12]

Just noticed that Christian Heljanko's contract with Tappara ends after this season and he has impressive numbers.

Any rumblings of interest from NHL teams?

 

[bebl]

Just noticed that Christian Heljanko's contract with Tappara ends after this season and he has impressive numbers.

Any rumblings of interest from NHL teams?

i don't think he has nhl potential.

 

[Jersey Fan 12]

HIFK's Roope Taponen is another goalie under 23 getting a shot to play in Liiga. Is there a reason there are so many young goalies this season? Liiga had always seemed like a place for more experienced goalies - particularly those with NHL experience who either couldn't keep starter roles or chose to return to Finland.

 

[JJTT]

HIFK's Roope Taponen is another goalie under 23 getting a shot to play in Liiga. Is there a reason there are so many young goalies this season? Liiga had always seemed like a place for more experienced goalies - particularly those with NHL experience who either couldn't keep starter roles or chose to return to Finland.

There really isn't too many Finnish goalies in their prime who would be willing to play in Liiga at the moment. So most teams are giving some younger goalies a shot instead of getting a foreigner. Lot of Liiga veteran goalies who have played here for ages have retired recently so it's a natural progression.

02, 03, 04 and 05 age groups look a bit better for goalies, so maybe there is some hope for the future.