News Article: The development of defensemen

[Appleyard]

Another article I have written.

This one is less Flyers specific and expands (bigger dataset, more thought on the matter, better written!) on a topic I posted once or twice about here and hope you guys find interesting.

It looks at how old NHL dmen are when they become top four or #1, as well as looking more specifically at those who were/are #1 dmen at some point and the late developers.

Something to keep in mind in the next few years when waiting for the crop of young D, (especially in regards to Sanheim, Morin and Hagg considering where in the draft they were picked) they could well be heavily contributing to the teams success earlier than you think...

http://alongtheboards.com/2015/04/evaluating-development-nhl-defensemen/

Click to read more...

 

[SchennSational1022*]

 

[pinedak]

I wonder if you look at those whom you listed as top 4 by age 20 I wonder how many where physically ready for the NHL when they were drafted? That is somewhere between 190-210 relative to height.

My inclination is physical maturity has a lot to do with being able to handle that role so early. Particularly because those who end up in the role near always already possess the skills for it when drafted. They just need to catch up to the speed of the NHL game.

 

[Appleyard]

I wonder if you look at those whom you listed as top 4 by age 20 I wonder how many where physically ready for the NHL when they were drafted? That is somewhere between 190-210 relative to height.

My inclination is physical maturity has a lot to do with being able to handle that role so early. Particularly because those who end up in the role near always already possess the skills for it when drafted. They just need to catch up to the speed of the NHL game.

Well I have the spreadsheet in-front of me so I can quickly answer:

Height and weight as listed in mock drafts/draft profiles/draft reviews/newspapers from the time:

Doughty: 6'0, 213lbs
Karlsson: 5'11, 165lbs
Hedman: 6'6, 220lbs
Ekman-Larsson: 6'2, 176lbs
Vlasic: 6'1, 190lbs
Seabrook: 6'2, 220lbs
Faulk: 5'11, 195lbs
Fowler: 6'1, 190lbs
Bouwmeester: 6'3, 206lbs
Phaneuf: 6'2, 205lbs
Ekblad: 6'4, 217lbs
Hamonic: 6'0, 192lbs
Brodin: 6'1, 169lbs
Myers: 6'7, 204lbs
Leddy: 5'11, 179lbs
Trouba: 6'2, 190lbs
Murray: 6'1, 198lbs
Maatta: 6'2, 202lbs
Hamilton: 6'4, 193lbs
Bogosian: 6'2, 197lbs
Kulikov: 6'1, 183lbs
Jones: 6'3, 201lbs

Only Karlsson, Ekman-Larsson, Brodin, Leddy and Kulikov of the 22 who were top 4 at age 20 or younger were not 190+ when drafted.

Though ofc a few of the bigger guys needed to fill out a good stone or so as well. (Hamilton, Myers, Bogosian...)

 

[dingbathero]

What happened to our L Schenn

He was touted as being top 2 wasn't he

We easily won that trade.... haha


Serious note:
Apple - love reading your stuff, always keep it up. Great stuff, thanks.

 

[deadhead]

22 as the age they become top 4 sounds right, leave juniors after age 20, a year in the AHL or on the bench, then they move into the lineup. Then one more season to approach their peak.

It also makes sense that the late bloomers are late draft picks, these will generally be less athletic players who need more experience to develop a "polished" game. So it makes sense to be more patient with later round picks who continue to show progress.

The one thing I'd be curious about is body type, do bigger defensemen take longer to mature, all other factors (draft position as a proxy for raw talent) held equal? This often is seen in other sports, because it's harder for big guys to develop coordination and body control needed to compensate for less agility (longer legs, wider turning radius, etc.).

 

[CSKA1974]

Thank you! My hat is off to you for your fluency with statistics

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Thank you. Good article and much needed.

I seem to forever get in arguments with people who claim that players require more minor league "development" time and aren't truly ready until their mid 20s.

It's BS. The vast majority of really good players show it by their very early 20s and are more than able to play in the NHL and play prominently in their very early 20s or even late teens.

The Luke Schenn argument, aka "he's only 24!" is contrary to a significant weight of evidence, which you have illustrated. We needed an article like this.

 

[beetee15]

really cool article, id love to think these guys can help sooner rather than later, I also think the agreement with CHL/AHL hurts players development. There is no reason an 18/19 year old stud should just go back to dominating kids at the junior level, they get nothing out of it. The CHL/AHL agreement sets these guys back in my opinion

 

[Ghosts Beer]

really cool article, id love to think these guys can help sooner rather than later, I also think the agreement with CHL/AHL hurts players development. There is no reason an 18/19 year old stud should just go back to dominating kids at the junior level, they get nothing out of it. The CHL/AHL agreement sets these guys back in my opinion

Couldn't agree more. The hesitation to play extremely skilled youngsters in the NHL for fear of ruining their development is greatly overblown.

It does the parent team no good having a veteran journeyman with half the skill in the lineup, & it does the stud talent no good dominating younger players in his sleep when he could be getting a jump on acclimating to the NHL and probably even help the team substantially if used correctly.

I swear some teams often waste a good year or two of NHL production from young players by babying them developmentally.

Caveat: This goes for high level talents. Mid-round picks with 3rd/4th line and bottom pairing potential often need growth in the minors.

 

[Embiid]

Wait...no mention of Coburn my buddy? Dude was initially a top 4 D man and top pairing D man with Kimmo pretty early too? Also, a 20+ minute D man.

Anyway..apart from discounting Coburn from your subset....interesting deductions. Seems to prove the point and contention that Bill made about Luke that he was for all intents and purposes a "finished product" and the most you could expect as far as improvement due to his limited skillset and bad genes was more consistency. Obviously, he struggled with that again this past season with his benchings although that was also a by-product of Berube and the D being crowded.

 

[pinedak]

Only Karlsson, Ekman-Larsson, Brodin, Leddy and Kulikov of the 22 who were top 4 at age 20 or younger were not 190+ when drafted.

Though ofc a few of the bigger guys needed to fill out a good stone or so as well. (Hamilton, Myers, Bogosian...)

So it's safe to say that's a factor. It would be interesting to see the physical development curve of those who "bloomed later". What for example is the size differential on average between a 1st round selection and a late round guy on draft day who end up as top-4, if any? Particularly if we can support an operating premise that you don't develop those skills to become an elite D man. You have them on draft day or you don't. Is it just "filling out" or something more?

 

[Appleyard]

Wait...no mention of Coburn my buddy? Dude was initially a top 4 D man and top pairing D man with Kimmo pretty early too? Also, a 20+ minute D man.

Anyway..apart from discounting Coburn from your subset....interesting deductions. Seems to prove the point and contention that Bill made about Luke that he was for all intents and purposes a "finished product" and the most you could expect as far as improvement due to his limited skillset and bad genes was more consistency. Obviously, he struggled with that again this past season with his benchings although that was also a by-product of Berube and the D being crowded.

Coburn is in the overall sample of over 100... but I just could not fit putting the whole sample in the article and make it readable!

So I just put the sample of guys who became '#1' guys at some point and the late developers.

I had Coburn as a top 4 dman in his age 22 season.

 

[beetee15]

would love to see this broken down for goaltenders, see at what age someone becomes a true number 1 or true franchise tendy

 

[Lindberg]

I think this bodes well for Gostisbhere if he has top line pairing potential given that he is already 22. Here is to hoping he has a pretty immediately impact since the flyers desperately could use him.

 

[pinedak]

Well it either boads very well or very poorly. Depends on whether or not he can handle real top four minutes next year.

 

[Origina1Master]

Very good read. I always like reading your articles, keep up the good work!

 

[ILoveStephanieBrown]

Thank you. Good article and much needed.

I seem to forever get in arguments with people who claim that players require more minor league "development" time and aren't truly ready until their mid 20s.

It's BS. The vast majority of really good players show it by their very early 20s and are more than able to play in the NHL and play prominently in their very early 20s or even late teens.

The Luke Schenn argument, aka "he's only 24!" is contrary to a significant weight of evidence, which you have illustrated. We needed an article like this.

Agreed. If a player is good, he's good. He wont need a ton of time to ''develop''. He'll show it pretty much right from the start. I feel too many people use the whole ''he needs time'' thing as an excuse because they dont want to face the unfortunate truth that a prospect has not met expectations.

Interesting article.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

really cool article, id love to think these guys can help sooner rather than later, I also think the agreement with CHL/AHL hurts players development. There is no reason an 18/19 year old stud should just go back to dominating kids at the junior level, they get nothing out of it. The CHL/AHL agreement sets these guys back in my opinion

You get maybe a couple of examples each year but in the grand scheme of things it's really not a big deal.

The Flyers certainly haven't been affected by it in recent years. Couturier was pretty ready, it just came down to a physical standpoint for him. Laughton still had stuff to prove at the junior level in those two years as did Morin. Even Sanheim could afford to go back next year if he doesn't crack the roster.

 

[beetee15]

You get maybe a couple of examples each year but in the grand scheme of things it's really not a big deal.

The Flyers certainly haven't been affected by it in recent years. Couturier was pretty ready, it just came down to a physical standpoint for him. Laughton still had stuff to prove at the junior level in those two years as did Morin. Even Sanheim could afford to go back next year if he doesn't crack the roster.

just greedy for our young D

 

[dats81]

Agreed. If a player is good, he's good. He wont need a ton of time to ''develop''. He'll show it pretty much right from the start. I feel too many people use the whole ''he needs time'' thing as an excuse because they dont want to face the unfortunate truth that a prospect has not met expectations.

Interesting article.

Absolutely.
If one of our D prospects is indeed #1 material, we will notice rather sooner than later.

The late-blooming #1 defenseman is the exception rather than the rule.

 

[Jack Straw]

Interesting comments from Pryor in Meltzer's latest column:

Many times during the conversation, Pryor himself stressed that the organization is committed to patience with its prospects. He does not want the hype for some of the players -- especially recent first round picks Travis Sanheim and Samuel Morin -- to overshadow the awareness that there is still a learning curve to navigate. This will especially be true when the players reach the professional ranks.

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=68355

I interpret this to mean that Morin and Sanheim will really have to blow Hextall away to make the Flyers this year. It really sounds like they want these guys to get time in the AHL before making the big show.

 

[deadhead]

Interesting that the Flyers still have the rights to Erik Gustafsson.
He had a very good year in the KHL, and that experience may have toughened him up, with the Ruble cratering, he may want to return to the states, and with Berube gone, might have a shot at winning a job.

 

[Embiid]

So pumped about Sanheim based on Meltzer's reporting in that same blog post!

Hopefully, we actually develop him to be a number 1!

.... here are some of the conversation highlights as pertains to Sanheim, whom many currently consider the top long-term prospect in the system.

The Flyers first-round pick from last year was a fast riser in the second half of the 2013-14 season but no one expected him to have quite as dominant of a WHL season this year as he did. Offensively, his development is arguably a full year ahead of schedule. Defensively, he hit every realistic one-year target point as well.

"With most players, it's kind of a roller coaster road with a lot of ups and downs," Pryor said. "With Travis, it's been more like a rocket ship from where he was at two summers ago to where he is now."

This is especially true on the offensive side of the puck. Sanheim led all WHL defensemen in scoring this season and ranked third among defensemen all three CHL leagues for points.

"People take notice of the offensive stats," Pryor acknowledged. "But he's been developing as an all-around player. He's got a lot of room to get better and to get bigger and stronger, and that's actually a very exciting thing. These are all things we know he's committed to doing."

A year ago, Button and others compared Sanheim's upside to that of New York Rangers standout Ryan McDonagh. Earlier this season, a Western Conference NHL scout raised the bar even higher, saying that Sanheim's first post-draft season reminded him of the early progression of eventual two-time Norris Trophy winner Duncan Keith.

.....All in all, the Flyers think that Sanheim has a strong foundation to be the type of four-S (size, speed,skill and sense) defenseman that is hard to find. There's likely still a lot of polishing and refinement yet to be done before he's ready to be a regular NHL starter -- much less the type of "diamond" defenseman to whom his potential has been likened.


http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=68355

 

[04' hockey]

A year ago, Button and others compared Sanheim's upside to that of New York Rangers standout Ryan McDonagh. Earlier this season, a Western Conference NHL scout raised the bar even higher, saying that Sanheim's first post-draft season reminded him of the early progression of eventual two-time Norris Trophy winner Duncan Keith.

when was the last time the Flyers have had a defense prospect with that potential ?