Proposal: The Defensive Draft Strategy

[Castle8130]

The Hawks just won the 2023 NHL Lottery and guaranteed the ability to pick Connor Bedard, a Franchise talent at the very least. Similar to that, the Oilers and the Leafs drafted Mcdavid and Matthews. Two players that had tons of hype as well. Both of these teams have had continuous regular season success, but have had trouble in the playoffs. The one thing I noticed is they lack a strong blue-line. Both teams have either an average or below average defensive core each year. Lets take a look at the defensemen they took in the 1st 2 rounds of each draft after taking Mcdavid in 2015 and Matthews in 2016:

Oilers:
2016: None
2017: None
2018: Evan Bouchard (huge impact player)
2019: Phillip Broberg (still young, but a roster player)
2020: None
2021: None
2022: None

Leafs:
2017: Timothy liljegren (semi-impact player), Eemeli Rasanen (bust)
2018: Rasmus Sandin (impact player, traded for salary cap reasons), Sean Durzi (roster player that can play PP)
2019: None
2020: None
2021: None
2022: None

After looking at all these players, I recognized a similar pattern. Most, if not all, are offensive defensemen. These offensive powerhouses were trying to add more fuel to the fire by adding more offense. This is where I think they went wrong. They needed safe defensive players to draft in the top 2 rounds to add strong support for their star players.

Now lets take a look at the Hawks since 2016-2022:

2016: Chad Krys (bust)
2017: Henri Jokiharju (Roster player), Ian Mitchell (bust)
2018: Adam Boqvist (still young, but a dissapointment), Nicolas Beaudin (bust)
2019: Alex Vlasic
2020: None, but hit with Isaak Phillips and Wyatt Kaiser with later picks
2021: Nolan Allan
2022: Kevin Korchinski, Sam Rinzel

Now I know the first half is not appealing, but let's take a look at the types of players the Hawks drafted. All of the players we drafted from 2016-2018 were all players that were smaller offensive defensemen. They all have that in common. This type of player is very rare and hard to find. IT IS VERY HARD TO HIT WITH THAT PLAYER TYPE.

From 2019-2022, the Hawks selected a completely different group that is much different (Safe). Outside of Korchinksi, none of these players have a huge offensive punch to their game. They are all relatively big and are good skaters. These are the types of players teams like the Oilers and the Leafs needed. They don't need anymore forwards than the cores they have. Depth scoring is far easier to add from free agency and deadlines than these defensive defensemen.

MY PROPOSAL IS THIS: From here on out, the Hawks draft big bodies with good skating and two-way ability. Players that are weaker in the offensive zone and always use either a 1st or 2nd round pick on these types for every draft Bedard is a Hawk. And if the Hawks draft one of these players with a later second round pick, we pick another defenseman with the next pick we have.

This is similar to how the 49ers and Patriots draft running backs with 3rd round picks in the NFL. I know it's not the same, but this seems relatable.

Click to read more...

 

[Kevin Musto]

I'd love to snag Bonk and Lindstein.

They remind me of Seabrook and Hammer respectively.

 

[TheFridge]

I think we should just draft good players tbh.

 

[Melrose Munch]

The Hawks just won the 2023 NHL Lottery and guaranteed the ability to pick Connor Bedard, a Franchise talent at the very least. Similar to that, the Oilers and the Leafs drafted Mcdavid and Matthews. Two players that had tons of hype as well. Both of these teams have had continuous regular season success, but have had trouble in the playoffs. The one thing I noticed is they lack a strong blue-line. Both teams have either an average or below average defensive core each year. Lets take a look at the defensemen they took in the 1st 2 rounds of each draft after taking Mcdavid in 2015 and Matthews in 2016:

Oilers:
2016: None
2017: None
2018: Evan Bouchard (huge impact player)
2019: Phillip Broberg (still young, but a roster player)
2020: None
2021: None
2022: None

Leafs:
2017: Timothy liljegren (semi-impact player), Eemeli Rasanen (bust)
2018: Rasmus Sandin (impact player, traded for salary cap reasons), Sean Durzi (roster player that can play PP)
2019: None
2020: None
2021: None
2022: None

After looking at all these players, I recognized a similar pattern. Most, if not all, are offensive defensemen. These offensive powerhouses were trying to add more fuel to the fire by adding more offense. This is where I think they went wrong. They needed safe defensive players to draft in the top 2 rounds to add strong support for their star players.

Now lets take a look at the Hawks since 2016-2022:

2016: Chad Krys (bust)
2017: Henri Jokiharju (Roster player), Ian Mitchell (bust)
2018: Adam Boqvist (still young, but a dissapointment), Nicolas Beaudin (bust)
2019: Alex Vlasic
2020: None, but hit with Isaak Phillips and Wyatt Kaiser with later picks
2021: Nolan Allan
2022: Kevin Korchinski, Sam Rinzel

Now I know the first half is not appealing, but let's take a look at the types of players the Hawks drafted. All of the players we drafted from 2016-2018 were all players that were smaller offensive defensemen. They all have that in common. This type of player is very rare and hard to find. IT IS VERY HARD TO HIT WITH THAT PLAYER TYPE.

From 2019-2022, the Hawks selected a completely different group that is much different (Safe). Outside of Korchinksi, none of these players have a huge offensive punch to their game. They are all relatively big and are good skaters. These are the types of players teams like the Oilers and the Leafs needed. They don't need anymore forwards than the cores they have. Depth scoring is far easier to add from free agency and deadlines than these defensive defensemen.

MY PROPOSAL IS THIS: From here on out, the Hawks draft big bodies with good skating and two-way ability. Players that are weaker in the offensive zone and always use either a 1st or 2nd round pick on these types for every draft Bedard is a Hawk. And if the Hawks draft one of these players with a later second round pick, we pick another defenseman with the next pick we have.

This is similar to how the 49ers and Patriots draft running backs with 3rd round picks in the NFL. I know it's not the same, but this seems relatable.

Agreed. Let's get two to three decent prospects and a goalie.

 

[Malaka]

I think we should just draft good players tbh.

This but unironically. Best player available from here on. We aren’t out of the rebuild with one draft. We also have more of a good crop of D than forwards I would say? Reichel Nazar Bedard won’t fill the top 6 by themselves.

 

[Kurtosis]

I think we should just draft good players tbh.

Easy for you to say!

 

[MarotteMarauder]

We need tall, long D men who can skate. Good 1st pass is a bonus.

 

[HawksDub89]

This but unironically. Best player available from here on. We aren’t out of the rebuild with one draft. We also have more of a good crop of D than forwards I would say? Reichel Nazar Bedard won’t fill the top 6 by themselves.

And inevitably someone won’t work out. Not every prospect will be a top 6 forward.

Our defensive prospect depth is pretty damn good. Probably don’t have a true 1D, but I think we have several 3/4 that have good size/skating ability.

 

[Castle8130]

I think we should just draft good players tbh.

Another point I didn't mention is that the Oilers and Leafs drafted what they considered were the best players available to them. The hit rate for forwards (unless you're Dallas) is very low compared to defensemen when drafting outside the top 20. Especially the mobile, big, and safer defenders.

Oilers drafted Benson, Jesse P, Yamamoto, Bourgault, Schaefer, and Holloway. Had they drafted best defenseman available with those picks (according to how the draft went and player type), Oilers get the following (not counting drafts where they selected a defenseman with their top pick):

Andrew Peeke, Pierre Oliver Joseph, Kaiden Guhle or Braden Schneider, Corson Ceulemens, and Noah Warren (won defensive defenseman of the year in the Q).

The above is a stocked d-corps and I'm not saying to cut out forwards entirely. We just need to put way more emphasis on it when we have Bedard on the team. We can find those Nylanders, Kyle Connors, and others when the time comes. When we draft with higher draft capital or have multiple 1sts and 2nds, thats when we take a run at forwards (like this draft).

 

[Castle8130]

Here are two examples of defensemen in this draft that are projected in the second round that fit that description the best:

1. Andrew Gibson: Really smooth skating defenseman that is solid in his own zone. He has a nice first pass, but can miss on offensive passing plays. He also is 6'3" with a nice physical edge to his game.

2. Tristan Bertucci: My second candidate is a bit more physical and a little better in the offensive zone. His skating fundamentals are also pretty good, but not as good as Bertucci's. He also has a nice frame and can move some bodies. On the defensive side he can sometimes get caught puck watching, but is mostly solid.


I would be pleased taking either of these guys in the second round.

 

[TLEH]

Well you can't draft smaller D who are just average skaters. They need to be world class skaters. That is how we ended up with Boqvist, Beaudin, Krys, and Mitchell. They all are not elite skaters and small.

 

[EbonyRaptor]

I know "handedness" isn't the end-all be-all - but the Hawks d-prospects are so LD heavy that I hope the Hawks draft a couple RD's.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

pro scouting is a huge huge part of the current NHL, projecting 18 year old kids comes with a ton of variance, the ability to get more production out of guys already in the league is where the edge is at, look at Seattle and early Vegas and even Boston, it's got to be a combo of really high picks to build the foundation and then a lot of savvy trades and UFA singnings to piece it all together

We need tall, long D men who can skate. Good 1st pass is a bonus.

more Rinzel types in the pipeline

 

[dj Mahoney]

We need tall, long D men who can skate. Good 1st pass is a bonus.

Vlasic . Phillips , neither are great passers and both should spend half the year in AHL imo.

 

[SweetHomeChicago]

Is there any D prospects in the next 1-3 years that may be bonafide #1? For example it would be really cool to find the next Duncan Keith type.. I’m talking about guys the Hawks could draft.

Also, my name is Jeremy and I stared watching the Hawks in 2009 when I was 18 years old. I used to play the hockey video games at my Grandmas when I was 7 years old on her PC at her Chicago home.. I’ve always loved watching hockey as to me it’s very beautiful how everything comes together and seeing plays develop.

I watched them up until after they traded Panarin and I’ve sporadically watched them here and there and been to a few games since then.. I saw the 3 cups and went to 2010 parade where there were half naked girls on light poles.. I think they had a beer or 2..

Anyways my point is that I’ve never posted on these forums and I haven’t been this excited for Hawks hockey for a long time.. It’s not just Bedard but it’s more of the fact that they are actually trying to rebuild this thing the right way and drafting as many good players as possible..

I couldn’t stand watching the team under Colliton because I felt like it was watching a Reinsdorf team where they just wanted to be .500 or barely a playoff team..

I am excited to see what they do in the next few years with all these picks.. I also am mentally telling myself that Bedard could not be as good as people think.. just to not set myself up for disappointment.. even if he isn’t a star I still think the hawks will keep drafting and scouting.. and will build a young exciting team again..

There’s nothing like watching the team when they are building and just starting to get good. Also I really like their coach they have now..

Lastly, I believe a lot of teams fanbases are angry and jealous of the Hawks which is perfect.. I kinda miss 2010 with all the Canuck fans being angry..

This will be the first of many posts as I’ve been trying to find places to talk about hockey and hopefully find some sports/hockey friends

 

[belfour30]

Is there any D prospects in the next 1-3 years that may be bonafide #1? For example it would be really cool to find the next Duncan Keith type.. I’m talking about guys the Hawks could draft.

Also, my name is Jeremy and I stared watching the Hawks in 2009 when I was 18 years old. I used to play the hockey video games at my Grandmas when I was 7 years old on her PC at her Chicago home.. I’ve always loved watching hockey as to me it’s very beautiful how everything comes together and seeing plays develop.

I watched them up until after they traded Panarin and I’ve sporadically watched them here and there and been to a few games since then.. I saw the 3 cups and went to 2010 parade where there were half naked girls on light poles.. I think they had a beer or 2..

Anyways my point is that I’ve never posted on these forums and I haven’t been this excited for Hawks hockey for a long time.. It’s not just Bedard but it’s more of the fact that they are actually trying to rebuild this thing the right way and drafting as many good players as possible..

I couldn’t stand watching the team under Colliton because I felt like it was watching a Reinsdorf team where they just wanted to be .500 or barely a playoff team..

I am excited to see what they do in the next few years with all these picks.. I also am mentally telling myself that Bedard could not be as good as people think.. just to not set myself up for disappointment.. even if he isn’t a star I still think the hawks will keep drafting and scouting.. and will build a young exciting team again..

There’s nothing like watching the team when they are building and just starting to get good. Also I really like their coach they have now..

Lastly, I believe a lot of teams fanbases are angry and jealous of the Hawks which is perfect.. I kinda miss 2010 with all the Canuck fans being angry..

This will be the first of many posts as I’ve been trying to find places to talk about hockey and hopefully find some sports/hockey friends

Korchinski is the guy that could be a #1.

 

[JaegerDice]

You draft for the best player available. With the following caveats:

You prioritize Centers and Defensemen over wingers. These positions have the most impact on the game, and are the most sought after on the trade market. Even if the C you drafted doesn't fit in your lineup, he'll fetch more than any winger you may have of equal talent.

You prioritize skill and offense, because these are the attributes that are most scarce and most expensive in the trade market. If you have two players of equal skill and one is 6'4 and the other is 5'8, obviously go with the bigger guy. Prioritizing size over talent and performance is how bad teams draft.

You skew toward offensive talent and performance over defensive acumen, cause generally speaking offensive output decreases with every hockey level jump while defensive acumen holds steady or improves as players grow accustomed to each new level/pace of play.

Obviously, you operate under these rules within reason. You do not pass up drafting Ovechkin so you can draft Dan Girardi.

 

[Hawkaholic]

By the sounds of Mike Donahgey interview, Hawks don't have much interest in drafting Dmen in this draft.

 

[ClydeLee]

By the sounds of Mike Donahgey interview, Hawks don't have much interest in drafting Dmen in this draft.

With the 2nd 1st rounder yeah.
He was saying that guys in the 2nd exist

 

[piteus]

I really like Del Mastro. He's the prototypical big physical stay at home DMen with high IQ who might be be our #3 or #4 in the future. He looks like a late bloomer. He also has the character to wear the A one day.

Allen is also another physical defensive blue liner with 2nd pairing potential. Phillips and Vlasic appear to be the classic 3rd pairing DMen. I'm not quite sure what Kaiser or Rinzel are ... bit they appear to have some potential. Regardless, we need to be patient. We give up way too early on DMen. The bigger bodied ones take longer to develop. They need to grow into their bodies.

Seth Jones is a fine #2 and he's going to be here a while. Can he be a #1? A lot of you say no. If that's the case, is Korchinki the answer? I'm not so sure. He definitely has upside, but that's still a big ask. We're going to have to keep swinging for an elite overall DMen. We need to find our Keith.

In regards to the prospect pool, we have a nice stable of DMen ... but we can definitely use more on the top end.

 

[piteus]

By the sounds of Mike Donahgey interview, Hawks don't have much interest in drafting Dmen in this draft.

He seems to like the DMen we drafted or in our system ... moreso than the forwards pipeline. We're definitely not drafting a Dmen in the first. Perhaps they will be value with one of our 2nds.

 

[Hattrick Kane]

Is there any D prospects in the next 1-3 years that may be bonafide #1? For example it would be really cool to find the next Duncan Keith type.. I’m talking about guys the Hawks could draft.

Also, my name is Jeremy and I stared watching the Hawks in 2009 when I was 18 years old. I used to play the hockey video games at my Grandmas when I was 7 years old on her PC at her Chicago home.. I’ve always loved watching hockey as to me it’s very beautiful how everything comes together and seeing plays develop.

I watched them up until after they traded Panarin and I’ve sporadically watched them here and there and been to a few games since then.. I saw the 3 cups and went to 2010 parade where there were half naked girls on light poles.. I think they had a beer or 2..

Anyways my point is that I’ve never posted on these forums and I haven’t been this excited for Hawks hockey for a long time.. It’s not just Bedard but it’s more of the fact that they are actually trying to rebuild this thing the right way and drafting as many good players as possible..

I couldn’t stand watching the team under Colliton because I felt like it was watching a Reinsdorf team where they just wanted to be .500 or barely a playoff team..

I am excited to see what they do in the next few years with all these picks.. I also am mentally telling myself that Bedard could not be as good as people think.. just to not set myself up for disappointment.. even if he isn’t a star I still think the hawks will keep drafting and scouting.. and will build a young exciting team again..

There’s nothing like watching the team when they are building and just starting to get good. Also I really like their coach they have now..

Lastly, I believe a lot of teams fanbases are angry and jealous of the Hawks which is perfect.. I kinda miss 2010 with all the Canuck fans being angry..

This will be the first of many posts as I’ve been trying to find places to talk about hockey and hopefully find some sports/hockey friends

Good luck trying to find the next Duncan Keith type. When we drafted him, it was straight up called a bad pick.

Thinking back, his skating makes no sense, you certainly wouldn’t teach anyone to skate like him. His shot was trash, and in all honesty never progressed beyond okay. It just so happened he had an endless motor and refused to quit working, he would not get tired. It was honestly an anomaly. Plus he had ridiculous hockey IQ, so when his physical attributes got sorted out, he became a hockey hall of famer.

But good luck projecting that, that’s a once in a lifetime scenario. Can’t think of too many other defensemen rising from the dirt pile like that.

 

[EbonyRaptor]

We need tall, long D men who can skate. Good 1st pass is a bonus.

Sounds like Korchinski. He can skate and pass and he's tall enough. He uses a long stick very well poking pucks away and breaking up plays. He needs to improve his shot and willingness to take it and get a bit stronger to win more board battles.

Hopefully another year in the WHL and he improves and becomes our #1 to play on the top pairing with Seth.

 

[swerdnase]

Also, my name is Jeremy and I stared watching the Hawks in 2009 when I was 18 years old. I used to play the hockey video games at my Grandmas when I was 7 years old on her PC at her Chicago home.. I’ve always loved watching hockey as to me it’s very beautiful how everything comes together and seeing plays develop.

I watched them up until after they traded Panarin and I’ve sporadically watched them here and there and been to a few games since then.. I saw the 3 cups and went to 2010 parade where there were half naked girls on light poles.. I think they had a beer or 2..

Anyways my point is that I’ve never posted on these forums and I haven’t been this excited for Hawks hockey for a long time.. It’s not just Bedard but it’s more of the fact that they are actually trying to rebuild this thing the right way and drafting as many good players as possible..

Welcome aboard!

 

[kmwtrucks]

Sounds like Korchinski. He can skate and pass and he's tall enough. He uses a long stick very well poking pucks away and breaking up plays. He needs to improve his shot and willingness to take it and get a bit stronger to win more board battles.

Hopefully another year in the WHL and he improves and becomes our #1 to play on the top pairing with Seth.

in one of the interviews it mentioned that korch was just about 6-3 at this point