Speculation: The Changing Trends of the NHL

[Drew75]

Times are always changing the NHL, from ‘run-and-gun’ of the ‘80’s, to clutch and grab of the late ‘90’s, and in the mid 2000’s, teams seem to be still trying to figure out how to work the salary cap and rule changes. There are always signs and trends, and the one thing the best teams seem to have in common is they recognize the direction of the game early, and lead the charge (Detroit, Chicago, and Tampa) rather than get dragged into the times kicking and screaming (JFJ’s Leafs, Burke’s Leafs, and Nonis’ Leafs).

Now, looking at the trends and signs of the NHL today, it’s possible to start to see where things look to be going. These may not all be present throughout the league, and it takes time for change to happen in such a traditionally minded sport, but there are early signs for the teams that want to get ahead of the trends. Here are some possible examples I’ve seen:

The Change to Structure of a Team –
Gone (or I should say: going) are the days of a top 6 / bottom 6 structure. With Analytics more prevalent and teams trying to squeeze every possible advantage out of 60 minutes, they no longer can afford to be exposed when their ‘energy line’ is out. Teams seem to be moving towards a more balanced line up. It seems to be going from a top 6 / bottom 6, to a top 9 / bottom 3, and the more advanced teams are trending towards rolling four lines, with at least two solid possession / scoring threats on each line, and one grinder / role player. Due to the level of talent in the world combined with a salary cap, there will always be an element of lesser players (the borderline AHL/NHL guys) who will specialize in aspects of the game such as being hard on the fore-check, or defensively sound. Rather than placing these players together on a ‘4th line’ however – teams seem to be spreading them throughout the lineup, using them to create space / do the dirty work for their more skilled line mates – while reducing the teams exposure of have a ‘weaker’ line playing 10 minutes a night. There will always likely be a distinction between the ‘top end’ of the roster vs the ‘bottom end’ just due to talent levels, but the clarity between your 1st to 4th lines are becoming more blurred, as ice time and roles gets spread more evenly.

Good-bye to the Goons –
No, they are not all gone yet, but like it or not, they are going. There is just no longer room on the roster (either in the salary cap, or on the ice), for a guy who will only play 4-6 minutes per night. These guys are finding it harder and harder to get jobs, and the days of a Colton Orr getting $1million are gone already. Now don’t get me wrong – I’m not saying that fighting will be gone from the game, because I don’t think that’s true – only that more and more fights are between middle weights who can play vs. goons who can’t. ‘Toughness’ will now be in the form of guys like Bieksa, Callahan, and Lucic rather than Orr, Maclaren, and Parros. Teams still have ‘tough guys’ (who you will notice are all on VERY short term deals), but those guys are seeing the lineup less and less and it’s a dying trend.

Fiscal Responsibility and Flexibility –
Teams seem to be finally learning how to manage within a salary cap. This past UFA season was one of the most controlled by the GM’s ever. We seem to be seeing a trend of an increasing divide between the “stars†and the “middle-classâ€. While guys like Kane, Toews, and Tarasenko are making out like bandits, the middle of the pack are getting the shorter termed, safer contracts. Money-puck seems to be a growing trend where teams are looking for value players to support their stars that are eating the greatest amount of cap space. Chicago has two players eating almost $22million of their cap- in order to provide any type of support through the line up, they need to maximize the value of players that are only making $1million.
Another trend I think we’re going to see a lot more of is the ‘signing bonus’ portion of the contract. This is another tool that provides a team flexibility if it decides to move a player later on. For example – if the Leafs decide to part ways with Bernier after this season – they will likely do so post July 1st next year after his bonus is paid, making his actual salary only $2.15million for the last season of the deal – and making him a much hotter commodity on the trade market. I wouldn’t be surprised to see team start getting creative with the bonuses, to keep the actual dollars low, as well it will impact the “actual salary†for things like arbitration and qualifying offers.

What trends are you seeing? Where do you think the game is heading? And most importantly – how do you think the Leafs are set up to thrive in a changing NHL?

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[Pookie]

If all 30 teams are going for possession, some on the bottom of the possession chart will have to adapt to something else.

Eg. Tampa, whose 5 year Corsi is middle of the pack (12th) has a 1-3-1 trap. Works for them.

Fighting isn't gone. Goons aren't gone. I don't have the interest in revisiting that debate again.

Are the Leafs well positioned? Now? of course not. The draft picks are simply names with projections and scouting reports. They might flourish or flop. We have no clue as predicting the future earns some people money at Fairs but that's about all there is to it.

What trends will we see in the NHL? I don't care to predict systems only to say that there are many of them. Goal scoring will be a focus as it sells tickets. I can see bigger nets and smaller pads.

Something has to be done to address the excitement level of the game, which rivals lawn bowling at times. Boring is a common word used to describe the NHL of today. Collapsing the net, goalies that play big, shot blocking, etc. Often this 2-1 world ends with a shot taken with eyes closed that manages to hit something on the way in.

Speed will be a factor but with concussion risks and lawsuits, I'd wager that interference will make its way back into the game. I don't see so much of a possession focus as I see a prevent the shot focus.

If anyone can say with authority what the future holds, shoot me a PM with next week's winning lottery numbers will ya?

 

[Menzinger]

Very much agree with regards to OP.

The traditional top six - bottom six is falling always. Teams are trying to jam as much skill as possible into the lineup. It just makes far more sense to have a 4th line that can actually score a goal or two than fill it with plugs. A successful team needs to have a 4th line capable of playing 10+ minutes a night. Depth more than anything these days helps bring about championships.

Cap management is the other key thing to getting a championship. Bad contracts will KILL a team's ability to be competitive.

I think the team (based on last year and this year's free agency) has been great at getting bargain bin possession guys like Winnik for cheap prices. Eventually other teams will/may catch on, but for now it allows the Leafs to pick up some great undervalued players.

 

[Nithoniniel]

I believe we're going towards an era where there's no top or bottom at all. All players will be expected to be competitive, and if they are not they better bring a real specialty.

The thing I've noted most of all the last five years or so in hockey, both what seems to be happening in the professional world and what happens among fans, is that people are now starting to question the old hockey truths. Like Dubas did with the "keeping it simple"-idea, that have been repeated over and over all over the world until it became this unassailable truth.

I think Pookie is also right that you'll see teams try to jump past the development to get ahead. There's a ton of data to support how players don't affect quality of shots a lot currently, but it's very possible that teams will try to figure out a way to maximize that area as well, to give an advantage that teams that only seek improvement that leads to better possession won't have.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

Times are always changing the NHL, from ‘run-and-gun’ of the ‘80’s, to clutch and grab of the late ‘90’s, and in the mid 2000’s, teams seem to be still trying to figure out how to work the salary cap and rule changes. There are always signs and trends, and the one thing the best teams seem to have in common is they recognize the direction of the game early, and lead the charge (Detroit, Chicago, and Tampa) rather than get dragged into the times kicking and screaming (JFJ’s Leafs, Burke’s Leafs, and Nonis’ Leafs).

Now, looking at the trends and signs of the NHL today, it’s possible to start to see where things look to be going. These may not all be present throughout the league, and it takes time for change to happen in such a traditionally minded sport, but there are early signs for the teams that want to get ahead of the trends. Here are some possible examples I’ve seen:

The Change to Structure of a Team –
Gone (or I should say: going) are the days of a top 6 / bottom 6 structure. With Analytics more prevalent and teams trying to squeeze every possible advantage out of 60 minutes, they no longer can afford to be exposed when their ‘energy line’ is out. Teams seem to be moving towards a more balanced line up. It seems to be going from a top 6 / bottom 6, to a top 9 / bottom 3, and the more advanced teams are trending towards rolling four lines, with at least two solid possession / scoring threats on each line, and one grinder / role player. Due to the level of talent in the world combined with a salary cap, there will always be an element of lesser players (the borderline AHL/NHL guys) who will specialize in aspects of the game such as being hard on the fore-check, or defensively sound. Rather than placing these players together on a ‘4th line’ however – teams seem to be spreading them throughout the lineup, using them to create space / do the dirty work for their more skilled line mates – while reducing the teams exposure of have a ‘weaker’ line playing 10 minutes a night. There will always likely be a distinction between the ‘top end’ of the roster vs the ‘bottom end’ just due to talent levels, but the clarity between your 1st to 4th lines are becoming more blurred, as ice time and roles gets spread more evenly.

Good-bye to the Goons –
No, they are not all gone yet, but like it or not, they are going. There is just no longer room on the roster (either in the salary cap, or on the ice), for a guy who will only play 4-6 minutes per night. These guys are finding it harder and harder to get jobs, and the days of a Colton Orr getting $1million are gone already. Now don’t get me wrong – I’m not saying that fighting will be gone from the game, because I don’t think that’s true – only that more and more fights are between middle weights who can play vs. goons who can’t. ‘Toughness’ will now be in the form of guys like Bieksa, Callahan, and Lucic rather than Orr, Maclaren, and Parros. Teams still have ‘tough guys’ (who you will notice are all on VERY short term deals), but those guys are seeing the lineup less and less and it’s a dying trend.

Fiscal Responsibility and Flexibility –
Teams seem to be finally learning how to manage within a salary cap. This past UFA season was one of the most controlled by the GM’s ever. We seem to be seeing a trend of an increasing divide between the “stars” and the “middle-class”. While guys like Kane, Toews, and Tarasenko are making out like bandits, the middle of the pack are getting the shorter termed, safer contracts. Money-puck seems to be a growing trend where teams are looking for value players to support their stars that are eating the greatest amount of cap space. Chicago has two players eating almost $22million of their cap- in order to provide any type of support through the line up, they need to maximize the value of players that are only making $1million.
Another trend I think we’re going to see a lot more of is the ‘signing bonus’ portion of the contract. This is another tool that provides a team flexibility if it decides to move a player later on. For example – if the Leafs decide to part ways with Bernier after this season – they will likely do so post July 1st next year after his bonus is paid, making his actual salary only $2.15million for the last season of the deal – and making him a much hotter commodity on the trade market. I wouldn’t be surprised to see team start getting creative with the bonuses, to keep the actual dollars low, as well it will impact the “actual salary” for things like arbitration and qualifying offers.

What trends are you seeing? Where do you think the game is heading? And most importantly – how do you think the Leafs are set up to thrive in a changing NHL?

Well, good post for starters bud. The length of term on contracts has gone down from the Ovechkins and Weber types. I don't think these terms will be ever seen again. They were absolutely ridiculous in the first place.

Anything longer than 5 years in term is something i would like to see being employed. The Leafs should not give long term over 5 to keep me happy lol.

 

[dimi78]

Well, good post for starters bud. The length of term on contracts has gone down from the Ovechkins and Weber types. I don't think these terms will be ever seen again. They were absolutely ridiculous in the first place.

Anything longer than 5 years in term is something i would like to see being employed. The Leafs should not give long term over 5 to keep me happy lol.

Bring back Burke... That's what he believed in and was toasted for that.

5 years used to be the bench mark on long term deals the circumventing contracts to lower cap hits caused this inflation of long term deals.... Burke as it's been a trend on more occasions than not was right about those contracts and was smart to stay away.

5 years is my mark as well but it's impossible to do that now with top line caliber players. It's a business and players deserve to earn every penny of the 50% revenue allocated to them on the cap. The standard has been set so there's no getting away from an 8 year deal on top caliber players.

This is why the smart money is in PAYING FOR POTENTIAL. Lock players you believe in up long term before they establish themselves.

My strategy for an example lets say the guy who gets a lot of love for doing practically nothing to deserve it other than being young, drafted 5th over all and have a huge upside in Rielly. He is a player that I believe in as much as the next guy and I'm willing to prove it more than the next guy. His 2nd contract I'm not going bridge. I'm going long term 8 years pay for potential and watch him be a huge bargain on my cap.

It's in UFA's where I would get stingy on rather just to look at acquiring players through that avenue or not and I would be capping out term at no more than 5 years.

The balk of management in building my team if I was GM would be drafting & development & trades. UFA's other than re-signing what's been already good for me is something I'd be disinterested other than shopping for cheap depth players like the Leafs have done these 2 past years. Let somebody else be stupid.

 

[Mess]

There are always signs and trends, and the one thing the best teams seem to have in common is they recognize the direction of the game early, and lead the charge (Detroit, Chicago, and Tampa) rather than get dragged into the times kicking and screaming (JFJ’s Leafs, Burke’s Leafs, and Nonis’ Leafs).

The Change to Structure of a Team –

Good-bye to the Goons –

Fiscal Responsibility and Flexibility –

What trends are you seeing? Where do you think the game is heading? And most importantly – how do you think the Leafs are set up to thrive in a changing NHL?

Agreed, those were all trends of the Burke/Nonis era items that have now changed with the changing to Shanny and his new team.

Leafs no longer deploy a top 6/bottom 6, nor Goons, nor spend to the cap ceiling and finish near the bottom of the standings.

Also gone is the dealing of high draft picks for quick fixes, signing expensive UFA players to regrettable contracts, the airing of the teams laundry in public among other things.

 

[666]

OP is delusional. You might want all of those things to happen but none of them actually are.

 

[MadSnowman42]

Collapsing the net, [...] shot blocking, etc.

This.

Without going into specific details of defensive tactics, the common denominator seems to be that more and more focus is put on disciplined defending by all five skaters. Let us call it improved team defence. Teams are trying to counter the brilliance and creativity of the opposing top players with a collective effort.

Unfortunately, and I really hope I am wrong, the point totals of the league leaders the last season(s) indicate that they are successful.

This also leads to more defensive responsibilities for "star" players and growing importance of two-way-play. There will always be a place in the game for the Phil Kessels of this world if only their offensive skills are high enough but their defensive play is and will be more scrutinised.

 

[spidergoalie]

Goaltending.
The days of the long time veteran are over. Young goalies are so well trained and coached that a goalie breaking into the league is at least technically on par with NHL experienced goalies. It is only the mental and emotional part of the game that needs developing.
They also play essentially exactly the same.
As a result goalies will not be getting the big paydays (relatively speaking) they used to and the era of guys like Brodeur, is over. Goalie careers will be short because there will always be a young goalie with all the tools waiting in the wings who can get the job done cheaper.
I think the idea of a starter and back up is becoming a bit nebulous as well for the same reasons.
We aren't 100% there yet, but I see absolutely nothing to stop the trend.

From a team perspective it is great. It also means more goalies will make it to the show, but for shorter careers. The downside, at least for an oldster like me, is that the cookie cutter goaltending of today is boring as hell to watch.

 

[VaughanBender72]

OP is delusional. You might want all of those things to happen but none of them actually are.

Do you actually think goons are gonna stay ?