Drew75
Registered User
- Sep 5, 2005
- 2,518
- 0
Times are always changing the NHL, from ‘run-and-gun’ of the ‘80’s, to clutch and grab of the late ‘90’s, and in the mid 2000’s, teams seem to be still trying to figure out how to work the salary cap and rule changes. There are always signs and trends, and the one thing the best teams seem to have in common is they recognize the direction of the game early, and lead the charge (Detroit, Chicago, and Tampa) rather than get dragged into the times kicking and screaming (JFJ’s Leafs, Burke’s Leafs, and Nonis’ Leafs).
Now, looking at the trends and signs of the NHL today, it’s possible to start to see where things look to be going. These may not all be present throughout the league, and it takes time for change to happen in such a traditionally minded sport, but there are early signs for the teams that want to get ahead of the trends. Here are some possible examples I’ve seen:
The Change to Structure of a Team –
Gone (or I should say: going) are the days of a top 6 / bottom 6 structure. With Analytics more prevalent and teams trying to squeeze every possible advantage out of 60 minutes, they no longer can afford to be exposed when their ‘energy line’ is out. Teams seem to be moving towards a more balanced line up. It seems to be going from a top 6 / bottom 6, to a top 9 / bottom 3, and the more advanced teams are trending towards rolling four lines, with at least two solid possession / scoring threats on each line, and one grinder / role player. Due to the level of talent in the world combined with a salary cap, there will always be an element of lesser players (the borderline AHL/NHL guys) who will specialize in aspects of the game such as being hard on the fore-check, or defensively sound. Rather than placing these players together on a ‘4th line’ however – teams seem to be spreading them throughout the lineup, using them to create space / do the dirty work for their more skilled line mates – while reducing the teams exposure of have a ‘weaker’ line playing 10 minutes a night. There will always likely be a distinction between the ‘top end’ of the roster vs the ‘bottom end’ just due to talent levels, but the clarity between your 1st to 4th lines are becoming more blurred, as ice time and roles gets spread more evenly.
Good-bye to the Goons –
No, they are not all gone yet, but like it or not, they are going. There is just no longer room on the roster (either in the salary cap, or on the ice), for a guy who will only play 4-6 minutes per night. These guys are finding it harder and harder to get jobs, and the days of a Colton Orr getting $1million are gone already. Now don’t get me wrong – I’m not saying that fighting will be gone from the game, because I don’t think that’s true – only that more and more fights are between middle weights who can play vs. goons who can’t. ‘Toughness’ will now be in the form of guys like Bieksa, Callahan, and Lucic rather than Orr, Maclaren, and Parros. Teams still have ‘tough guys’ (who you will notice are all on VERY short term deals), but those guys are seeing the lineup less and less and it’s a dying trend.
Fiscal Responsibility and Flexibility –
Teams seem to be finally learning how to manage within a salary cap. This past UFA season was one of the most controlled by the GM’s ever. We seem to be seeing a trend of an increasing divide between the “stars†and the “middle-classâ€. While guys like Kane, Toews, and Tarasenko are making out like bandits, the middle of the pack are getting the shorter termed, safer contracts. Money-puck seems to be a growing trend where teams are looking for value players to support their stars that are eating the greatest amount of cap space. Chicago has two players eating almost $22million of their cap- in order to provide any type of support through the line up, they need to maximize the value of players that are only making $1million.
Another trend I think we’re going to see a lot more of is the ‘signing bonus’ portion of the contract. This is another tool that provides a team flexibility if it decides to move a player later on. For example – if the Leafs decide to part ways with Bernier after this season – they will likely do so post July 1st next year after his bonus is paid, making his actual salary only $2.15million for the last season of the deal – and making him a much hotter commodity on the trade market. I wouldn’t be surprised to see team start getting creative with the bonuses, to keep the actual dollars low, as well it will impact the “actual salary†for things like arbitration and qualifying offers.
What trends are you seeing? Where do you think the game is heading? And most importantly – how do you think the Leafs are set up to thrive in a changing NHL?
Now, looking at the trends and signs of the NHL today, it’s possible to start to see where things look to be going. These may not all be present throughout the league, and it takes time for change to happen in such a traditionally minded sport, but there are early signs for the teams that want to get ahead of the trends. Here are some possible examples I’ve seen:
The Change to Structure of a Team –
Gone (or I should say: going) are the days of a top 6 / bottom 6 structure. With Analytics more prevalent and teams trying to squeeze every possible advantage out of 60 minutes, they no longer can afford to be exposed when their ‘energy line’ is out. Teams seem to be moving towards a more balanced line up. It seems to be going from a top 6 / bottom 6, to a top 9 / bottom 3, and the more advanced teams are trending towards rolling four lines, with at least two solid possession / scoring threats on each line, and one grinder / role player. Due to the level of talent in the world combined with a salary cap, there will always be an element of lesser players (the borderline AHL/NHL guys) who will specialize in aspects of the game such as being hard on the fore-check, or defensively sound. Rather than placing these players together on a ‘4th line’ however – teams seem to be spreading them throughout the lineup, using them to create space / do the dirty work for their more skilled line mates – while reducing the teams exposure of have a ‘weaker’ line playing 10 minutes a night. There will always likely be a distinction between the ‘top end’ of the roster vs the ‘bottom end’ just due to talent levels, but the clarity between your 1st to 4th lines are becoming more blurred, as ice time and roles gets spread more evenly.
Good-bye to the Goons –
No, they are not all gone yet, but like it or not, they are going. There is just no longer room on the roster (either in the salary cap, or on the ice), for a guy who will only play 4-6 minutes per night. These guys are finding it harder and harder to get jobs, and the days of a Colton Orr getting $1million are gone already. Now don’t get me wrong – I’m not saying that fighting will be gone from the game, because I don’t think that’s true – only that more and more fights are between middle weights who can play vs. goons who can’t. ‘Toughness’ will now be in the form of guys like Bieksa, Callahan, and Lucic rather than Orr, Maclaren, and Parros. Teams still have ‘tough guys’ (who you will notice are all on VERY short term deals), but those guys are seeing the lineup less and less and it’s a dying trend.
Fiscal Responsibility and Flexibility –
Teams seem to be finally learning how to manage within a salary cap. This past UFA season was one of the most controlled by the GM’s ever. We seem to be seeing a trend of an increasing divide between the “stars†and the “middle-classâ€. While guys like Kane, Toews, and Tarasenko are making out like bandits, the middle of the pack are getting the shorter termed, safer contracts. Money-puck seems to be a growing trend where teams are looking for value players to support their stars that are eating the greatest amount of cap space. Chicago has two players eating almost $22million of their cap- in order to provide any type of support through the line up, they need to maximize the value of players that are only making $1million.
Another trend I think we’re going to see a lot more of is the ‘signing bonus’ portion of the contract. This is another tool that provides a team flexibility if it decides to move a player later on. For example – if the Leafs decide to part ways with Bernier after this season – they will likely do so post July 1st next year after his bonus is paid, making his actual salary only $2.15million for the last season of the deal – and making him a much hotter commodity on the trade market. I wouldn’t be surprised to see team start getting creative with the bonuses, to keep the actual dollars low, as well it will impact the “actual salary†for things like arbitration and qualifying offers.
What trends are you seeing? Where do you think the game is heading? And most importantly – how do you think the Leafs are set up to thrive in a changing NHL?