The Case for Tyler Bozak: All Tyler Bozak Discussion Here

[Rogie]

That's correct. Read it again. When a player faces different QoC then his majority of ice, the number is so small it isn't really quantifiable. You can't really measure how he'd perform unless he performed against that quality consistently.

It says the (statistical) difference in competition that Bozak and Kadri (or any other Leafs for that matter) face are so small they are hardly meaningful.

There's just not enough difference between the other teams better players (on every team) and there 2nd best players and it's not any player plays EXCLUSIVELY against the other team's best players all the time.

I"ve read it and I understand it!

 

[HonestHockey*]

http://theleafsnation.com/2014/5/21/ratings-and-records-and-misconceptions-about-analytics

corsi is a record of a specific event (shot attempts for and against). it can be recorded for individual players or for teams.



sure but there are many more shot attempts than goals in a game/season. and with volume it becomes possible to see if there are relationships or trends related to the records of events.

i wouldn't claim that corsi is a great indicator of individual performance but it can tell you what direction the play was going when specific players/lines were on the ice.

And again for all of that both QoC and QoT come into play. Look at Jake Gardiner. Always plays the weakest competition on defense and has the best zone starts. Of course his Corsi is high. Just makes sense.

 

[HonestHockey*]

It says the (statistical) difference in competition that Bozak and Kadri (or any other Leafs for that matter) face are so small they are hardly meaningful.

There's just not enough difference between the other teams better players (on every team) and there 2nd best players and it's not any player plays EXCLUSIVELY against the other team's best players all the time.

I"ve read it and I understand it!

That's not what it says at all. It says that neither faces the same QoC enough to make it measurable.

It's why there is always the 1st line 2nd line debate. Are you saying there isn't a discernible difference between Kessel and any other Leaf?

 

[leafs in five]

It doesn't mean Corsi is not an indicator, a proxy for hockey events.

But they do not represent what some are trying to pass them off as.

most people pass corsi stats off as a proxy for possession. you however seem to believe that corsi numbers can reveal that a player and his linemates take a lot of low percentage shots from bad angles.

 

[Rogie]

That's not what it says at all. It says that neither faces the same QoC enough to make it measurable.

It doesn't say that - it says clearly, there just isn't a significant difference in the QofC metric. It's kind of like there isn't enough variance in the variable to matter.

But, okay. We disagree on what it says.

 

[Rogie]

That's not what it says at all. It says that neither faces the same QoC enough to make it measurable.

It's why there is always the 1st line 2nd line debate. Are you saying there isn't a discernible difference between Kessel and any other Leaf?

Of course Kessel is a better player than other players and there is a discernable difference between him and others, But, does Kessel play by himself? QofC measures the average +/- of 5 players on the ice you are playing against - NOT JUST KESSEL.

And then, things get constantly mixed up, where sometimes Kessel is with this guy and then, he's with someone else. Moreso on other teams in the league, where (unlike the Leafs where Bozak and Kessel were glued together forever), on many teams, lines are broken up a lot more often and players moved around onto different lines at such a rate, that the opposing players aren't facing the same players constantly.

Now that Bozak and JVR are seperated from Kessel, don't you think we have 2 pretty good lines, but, maybe there is a smaller difference between the lines in so much as the opponents playing against these 2 lines are not facing the same disparity. Perhaps before JVR/Kessel/Bozak was quite a bit better than Kadri's line, but, not the 2 lines are a little more equal and so opponents who face Bozak's line a little more, are they playing against tougher QofC or is the opponent who plays more against Kessel/Kadri now playing against the top line. And then, add to this, that other teams, do NOT play one line constantly (against every team) against the supposed top line.

 

[leafs in five]

And again for all of that both QoC and QoT come into play. Look at Jake Gardiner. Always plays the weakest competition on defense and has the best zone starts. Of course his Corsi is high. Just makes sense.

yeah but isn't QoC measured by corsi? at least that was my understanding. from behindthenet: "we take the ice time-weighted average of a player's opponents' corsi number relative to his teammates."

it just strikes me as odd to say that corsi is misleading in Jake Gardiner's case because of what QoC tells us. when QoC would treat Jake Gardiner as a good player.

i mean i understand what you are saying and it's important to qualify the assessments you're making using corsi etc. but people literally say stuff like, 'corsi is useless - Bozak plays the toughest QoC on the Leafs is still almost a point a game.'

 

[Rogie]

yeah but isn't QoC measured by corsi? at least that was my understanding. from behindthenet: "we take the ice time-weighted average of a player's opponents' corsi number relative to his teammates."

it just strikes me as odd to say that corsi is misleading in Jake Gardiner's case because of what QoC tells us. when QoC would treat Jake Gardiner as a good player.

i mean i understand what you are saying and it's important to qualify the assessments you're making using corsi etc. but people literally say stuff like, 'corsi is useless - Bozak plays the toughest QoC on the Leafs is still almost a point a game.'

It's measured in more than one way, you are correct, I think the first, sort of accepted measure, was simply by the weighted +/- of the opponents. In the article I referenced earlier, the author talks about weighting using Corsi +/- as well, and not the traditional plus minus. Either way, according to the article, it can be objectively measured (either way you measure it) and there just isn't much difference. Most everyone plays against everyone else enough over the course of the season and there just isn't that much difference between the best players and the next best players, that it pretty much evens out in the end; especially, when you consider you are playing against 5 other players.

A team like Pens, often have Crosby and Malking seperated, so, opponents playing the Pens, well, which opponents are getting the tougher match ups. And, on many teams, there really isn't that huge of a difference between 1st lines (or units) and the 2nd unit so to speak.

 

[Durrr]

How do you explain Bozak having better production despite having much lower offensive zone starts?

5 on 5 directing low % shots at the net, what does this matter?

Hypothetically, would you rather win a draw starting a PP or lose a draw. BTW Bozak leads the team in PP goals doesn't he?

1 PP time. Bozak is no where near Kadri in ES points in the last 3 years.

 

[Hockey Talker29]

1 PP time. Bozak is no where near Kadri in ES points in the last 3 years.

Bozak is also much worse on the PP. If Kadri got 1st line PP time he would crush Bozak in points over a full season.

 

[HonestHockey*]

Bozak is also much worse on the PP. If Kadri got 1st line PP time he would crush Bozak in points over a full season.

How do you know this?

 

[Kyle Doobas*]

How do you know this?

Nobody 'knows', but call it an educated guess. Better offensive stats, better possession stats, better offensive skill set according to the 'eye test'.... let's just say it probably wouldn't shock most people to see Kadri out-produce Bozak on the PP if he were playing on the first unit and Bozak on the second.

 

[Hockey Talker29]

How do you know this?

Look at their Pts/60 on the PP over the last 2 seasons.

 

[HonestHockey*]

Nobody 'knows', but call it an educated guess. Better offensive stats, better possession stats, better offensive skill set according to the 'eye test'.... let's just say it probably wouldn't shock most people to see Kadri out-produce Bozak on the PP if he were playing on the first unit and Bozak on the second.

Always against second tier competition.

 

[HonestHockey*]

Look at their Pts/60 on the PP over the last 2 seasons.

Different competition. Apples and oranges.

 

[BorntoLose]

isn't this the Bozak thread? there's a specific thread for the Bozak vs Kadri debate

 

[Hockey Talker29]

Different competition. Apples and oranges.

Haha wow. Impressive rebuttal.

For those who are wondering:

Kadri 5.36 pts/60
Bozak 3.49 pts/60

And that's with Kadri playing with our 2nd PP units.

 

[Duke Silver]

How do you explain Bozak having better production despite having much lower offensive zone starts?

5 on 5 directing low % shots at the net, what does this matter?

Hypothetically, would you rather win a draw starting a PP or lose a draw. BTW Bozak leads the team in PP goals doesn't he?

Powerplay opportunity? That's the difference.

So your explanation for Kadri having better possession numbers despite playing with (up until 3 games ago) lesser quality teammates and losing all those faceoffs is that his lines direct low % shots at the net, whereas Bozak's line does not? I suppose you have measured this somehow?

Unless you're going to sit there and tell me that Kadri would not put up or surpass Bozak's numbers given the same opportunity on the PP1... although I'm sure you will try.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Powerplay opportunity? That's the difference.

So your explanation for Kadri having better possession numbers despite playing with (up until 3 games ago) lesser quality teammates and losing all those faceoffs is that his lines direct low % shots at the net, whereas Bozak's line does not? I suppose you have measured this somehow?

Unless you're going to sit there and tell me that Kadri would not put up or surpass Bozak's numbers given the same opportunity on the PP1... although I'm sure you will try.

I am focusing on Bozak in this thread, not that player, notice the posts I have replied to here today.

Corsi simply measures 5 on 5 shots directed at the net. It is not a proxy for individual play. Bozak, Kessel, Franson do not have an individual corsi number.

My question to you is who on this team is the most likely to win a draw in the offensive zone on the PP? The answer is obvious isn't it? This is a plus considering this player also currently leads the team with 3 PP goals.

I am not interested in Strawman replies, and thus will ignore them to stay on topic.

 

[leafs in five]

Bozak, Kessel, Franson do not have an individual corsi number.

sure they do. whether you think it's informative or fair or whatever else doesn't change the fact that corsi numbers can be measured for individual players. just like every player has an 'individual' +/- number. you used to use a certain player's +/- number from the lockout year as a replacement for his name. it was meant to prove that this player was a bad player, because he had a bad +/- that season.

 

[Hockey Talker29]

sure they do. whether you think it's informative or fair or whatever else doesn't change the fact that corsi numbers can be measured for individual players. just like every player has an 'individual' +/- number. you used to use a certain player's +/- number from the lockout year as a replacement for his name. it was meant to prove that this player was a bad player, because he had a bad +/- that season.

Great post.

Further to your point, are any of the stats being used here truly individual measures? A goal will most often consist of a scorer?

Corsi and Fenwick provide very reliable individual player metrics over large sample sizes. If you still don't like them, then that's your prerogative. It does not discredit them in the least bit though.

 

[zeke]

1 PP time. Bozak is no where near Kadri in ES points in the last 3 years.

As much as I agree with you guys that Kadri is likely the better offensive option in all situations, at the same time I don't think you guys realize how impressive Bozak's offense has actually been this year and last.

Bozak has in fact closed any gap in production between the two of them (even though yes he has had the massive advantage of playing with Kessel), and Kadri is no longer outperforming him like he used to. But yes, again, playing with Kessel and on the top unit does give him a big advantage that Kadri would likely exploit better.


But let's give credit to Bozak for what he's done offensive this year and last - in fact, Bozak has been one of the most productive players in hockey over this year and last.


14-15 ES:

Bozak: 164:50min, 1gls/6pts (60min, 0.3gls/2.2pts)
Kadri: 151:15min, 4gls/5pts (60min, 1.6gls/2.0pts)

14-15 PP:

Bozak: 36:12min, 3gls/4pts (60min, 5.0gls/6.6pts)
Kadri: 28:47min, 0gls/0pts (60min, 0.0gls/0.0pts)


13-14 ES:

Bozak: 989:48min, 14gls/40pts (60min, 0.9gls/2.4pts)
Kadri: 1159:16min, 13gls/32pts (60min, 0.7gls/1.7pts)

13-14 PP:

Bozak: 156:24min, 5gls/8pts (60min, 1.9gls/3.1pts)
Kadri: 185:33min, 7gls/18pts (60min, 2.3gls/5.8pts)


12-13 ES

Bozak: 721:59min, 7gls/18pts (60min, 0.6gls/1.5pts)
Kadri: 655:47min, 13gls/36pts (60min, 1.2gls/3.3pts)

12-13 PP

Bozak: 136:47min, 4gls/9pts (60min, 1.8gls/4.0pts)
Kadri: 106:11min, 5gls/8pts (60min, 2.8gls/4.5pts)



Last 2yrs ES

Bozak: 1154:38min, 15gls/46pts (60min, 0.8gls/2.4pts)
Kadri: 1350:31min, 17gls/37pts (60min, 0.8gls/1.6pts)

Last 2yrs PP

Bozak: 192:36min, 8gls/12pts (60min, 2.5gls/3.7pts)
Kadri: 214:20min, 7gls/18pts (60min, 2.0gls/5.0pts)


Last 3yrs ES

Bozak: 1876:37min, 22gls/64pts (60min, 0.7gls/2.1pts)
Kadri: 2006:18min, 30gls/73pts (60min, 0.9gls/2.2pts)

Last 3yrs PP

Bozak: 329:23min, 12gls/21pts (60min, 2.2gls/3.8pts)
Kadri: 320:31min, 12gls/26pts (60min, 2.3gls/4.9pts)




And here's the top-30 ppg players in hockey over this year and last (games played in brackets):

1. Crosby 1.36 (90)
2. Malkin 1.24 (70)
3. Getzlaf 1.12 (90)
4. Tavares 1.11 (70)
5. Zetterberg 1.11 (56)
6. Seguin 1.09 (91)
7. Stamkos 1.08 (49)
8. Giroux 1.06 (93)
9. Hall 1.05 (86)
10. Perry 1.03 (94)
11. Kessel 1.01 (93)
12. Ovechkin 1.01 (89)
13. Neal 1.00 (70)
14. Okposo 0.99 (82)
15. Benn 0.98 (92)
16. Backstrom 0.97 (93)
17. Kane 0.95 (81)
18. Pavelski 0.95 (95)
19. Duchene 0.94 (84)
20. Datsyuk 0.92 (51)
21. Kunitz 0.92 (88)
22. Thornton 0.92 (95)
23. Sharp 0.91 (94)
24. Spezza 0.91 (86)
25. Krejci 0.88 (89)
26. Steen 0.87 (79)
27. Bozak 0.86 (69)
28. Marleau 0.86 (95)
29. Parise 0.86 (77)
30. Toews 0.86 (88)


Now we might say this is just a fluke small sample size, but we can't use excuses like "he plays with Kessel" since there are a whole bunch of teammates on this list who get to play with each other too, or like "he's in an easy situation" since he gets tough zone starts and quality of competition, too.

And we can't know for sure whether it's just a fluke small sample size, because a) it's not that small and b) maybe he just figured it out a bit late. It'll be very interesting to see whether he produces without Kessel, because then we'll be forced to give him some credit - especially if the team maintains their improved possession numbers.

early returns are good - Bozak has already produced without Kessel in the first few games, and has been in on a whole bunch of other quality scoring chances too.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

While we are at it...

Definition of proxy as per Merriam-Webster.

1: the agency, function, or office of a deputy who acts as a substitute for another

2a: authority or power to act for another

b: a document giving such authority; specifically: a power of attorney authorizing a specified person to vote corporate stock

3: a person authorized to act for another : procurator

Poor usage for Corsi.

Corsi:

I prefer, a possible indicator or interpretation of hockey events in a game that is arrived on team play, and not individual play. It simply measures team shots directed at an opposing net, thus it it should be treated as such, an interpretation or possible indicator as such.

IE: An interpretation of an event is high corsi, low production. This is a possible indicator for poor quality of scoring chances, or poor finish. In the context of corsi stats, this case can be made.

 

[HonestHockey*]

Haha wow. Impressive rebuttal.

For those who are wondering:

Kadri 5.36 pts/60
Bozak 3.49 pts/60

And that's with Kadri playing with our 2nd PP units.

And against 2nd PK units.

 

[zeke]

sure they do. whether you think it's informative or fair or whatever else doesn't change the fact that corsi numbers can be measured for individual players. just like every player has an 'individual' +/- number. you used to use a certain player's +/- number from the lockout year as a replacement for his name. it was meant to prove that this player was a bad player, because he had a bad +/- that season.

What we should be saying is that Corsi tells us what we always used to think +/- told us but actually didn't.

It's actually just a +/- stat that actually means something, unlike traditional +/-.