Post-Game Talk: the caps had game 7 in the bag. I blame holtby

[animositynow]

Let me start this off by saying I have always been a huge Holtby fan. Have his jersey, been my favourite goalie since the 2012 Boston series.

Thing is, over the past couple seasons, sometimes we get the "LOL"tby version.

When he is on his game, he can be amazing. However sometimes he seems to lose mental control and appears to look nervous out there. I feel like this was the case in game 7 against Carolina this year.

That tying goal from J. Staal can absolutely not go in. That angle is ridiculous. Had so much net to shoot at. All he needs to do is stop that. I am sure he knows it himself too, but I feel like 99% of goalies will stop that. It was just horrendous.

Anyways, him being good or bad in that game feels like the difference to us going on another run this year. Losing out in round 1 is an easier pill to swallow after winning the cup, but thinking if we had never won the cup - that would be totally unacceptable under any conditions for any team and their tendy. For a golaie to let that softie in. (There are some others too, such as the spin around goal he looked for goalie interference for)

I haven't been on this board since the game 7 or watched much playoffs after it, just taking a break from so much we had watched over the years. So maybe this has been mentioned. I wanted to post a thread and see if other people feel the same way, and what their thoughts are going forward with Holtby as our #1.

Click to read more...

 

[g00n]

Given his career playoff record compared to all other options, who would you have subbed in for Game 7 if you could pick anyone?

Canes are in the ECF for a reason, and it isn't Holtby.

 

[twabby]

I think most everyone thinks Holtby should have made those saves in Game 7 (Aho’s SH goal was arguably worse IMO).

Going forward I have no idea what you do with Holtby. He’s obviously been a pretty good to great goalie over his career but if he’s looking for a Lundqvist or Price contract I think you have to move on. If he’s willing to take a more modest contract I think you can find room for him. But he’s not like Backstrom or Ovechkin where you sign him no matter what.

Either way I expect to see Samsonov get some significant NHL activity before deciding what to do with Holtby. Apparently he ended the season well in Hershey but his sub-.900 save percentage doesn’t exactly fill me with confidence quite yet.

 

[g00n]

I think most everyone thinks Holtby should have made those saves in Game 7 (Aho’s SH goal was arguably worse IMO).

Going forward I have no idea what you do with Holtby. He’s obviously been a pretty good to great goalie over his career but if he’s looking for a Lundqvist or Price contract I think you have to move on. If he’s willing to take a more modest contract I think you can find room for him. But he’s not like Backstrom or Ovechkin where you sign him no matter what.

Either way I expect to see Samsonov get some significant NHL activity before deciding what to do with Holtby. Apparently he ended the season well in Hershey but his sub-.900 save percentage doesn’t exactly fill me with confidence quite yet.

I don't see how anyone can single out Holtby when his compete level was basically the same as everyone else on the team.

That said I'm not opposed to moving on for financial reasons, if necessary.

 

[twabby]

I don't see how anyone can single out Holtby when his compete level was basically the same as everyone else on the team.

That said I'm not opposed to moving on for financial reasons, if necessary.

I actually thought the Capitals were pretty good in regulation of Game 7 but ran out of gas in OT/2OT. It's not fair to blame him for the series because he was hung out to dry in all 3 games in Carolina but he had to be better in Game 7 and wasn't.

 

[John Price]

i was there it was not his fault

blame them for not holding that 3-1 lead or scoring in OT.

 

[animositynow]

i was there it was not his fault

blame them for not holding that 3-1 lead or scoring in OT.

yeah but if he had have been anything like the Holtby he has been in playoffs past, they would have held that lead.

He is not entirely to blame for the whole series. I am primarily talking about that game 7 3rd period effort.

the margin for error in playoffs is so slim and he need to be air tight.

the bigger question is what we do with him going forward when it is time to pay him what he has earned.

 

[animositynow]

I actually thought the Capitals were pretty good in regulation of Game 7 but ran out of gas in OT/2OT. It's not fair to blame him for the series because he was hung out to dry in all 3 games in Carolina but he had to be better in Game 7 and wasn't.

yes they were good enough to win in regulation of game 7, I would agree. Holtby was not, was my point.

and then they ran out of gas and we all know the outcome

 

[Sam Spade]

Yeah, if I had to call out one single person to blame Holtby would be my guy. Caps got him three goals, the Staal goal was garbage.

Missed opportunity for sure.

 

[txpd]

As is often the case the Staal goal and the Aho shorty were soft and damaging. He made other outstanding saves in the meantime. They shouldn't have needed a game 7. That is on other players. They should have won game 7 anyway. G7 was not Holtby's finest moment but far from his worst playoff moment and he is the best playoff goalie of his generation.

 

[crazy8888]

Hotlby needs Mitch Korn at his side. Without Korn Holtby is not the same goaltender

 

[Lindemann]

It wasn’t just him

But holy hell was he anti clutch

His one against Staal that tied it up so utter garbage

He was so out of position it’s like he forgot where he was

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

I think most everyone thinks Holtby should have made those saves in Game 7 (Aho’s SH goal was arguably worse IMO).

Going forward I have no idea what you do with Holtby. He’s obviously been a pretty good to great goalie over his career but if he’s looking for a Lundqvist or Price contract I think you have to move on. If he’s willing to take a more modest contract I think you can find room for him. But he’s not like Backstrom or Ovechkin where you sign him no matter what.

Either way I expect to see Samsonov get some significant NHL activity before deciding what to do with Holtby. Apparently he ended the season well in Hershey but his sub-.900 save percentage doesn’t exactly fill me with confidence quite yet.

Holtby's G7 was brutal and I thought he was pretty subpar most of the series. He never seemed to make the clutch stop when the team needed him.

Samsonov ended the season something like 15-3-1 with a .930 save percentage and a 1.90 GAA. I think it's pretty well understood and accepted that he had a tough time adjusting to a new language, new country, new ice surface, etc and that once he adjusted he was terrific.

Still, I don't know what to do with Holtby. You don't exactly want to spend the last years of 19 and 8 breaking in a new goalie and hoping he lives up to the hype but like you said, there's no way he should get Price or Lundqvist money.

 

[marcel snapshot]

Some of the Aho goal is on Carlson for going down, but not blocking it, so Holtby had less time to react to the initial shot that he should have controlled. The Staal goal though - his angle was terribad. It was like a flashback to early years Holtby, who played as if the net was much bigger than it is. He was very good in the OT though.

Other than Game 5, the team as a whole was never able to get the Canes to start doubting themselves. Doesn't seem to be the case for the Bruins, however.

 

[Langway]

G7 was not Holtby's finest moment but far from his worst playoff moment and he is the best playoff goalie of his generation.

Get another Cup and then maybe that can be said. Until then it's hard to just point to the numbers. Peak Quick still has him beat in recent memory IMO, particularly given that he has a Conn Smythe on his resume.

I don't think G7 was Holtby's only off game of the series. Games 4 and 6 could also have been better, although the team in front of him weren't of great service. He did play roughly to the level of the rest of the team outside of 8/19 but one has higher expectations for a franchise guy to consistently be on their level. He also did make a number of key saves in the games where he didn't manage to steal a game like you said but overall it was a somewhat off performance and, again, one tends to expect more than that. Maybe they should have made it a shorter series but it was what it was and those Aho & Staal goals were funky so I tend to agree. Even with them pretty off, he could have stolen one more game for them and didn't.

 

[g00n]

Did Carolina give up any bad goals?

 

[animositynow]

I agree with most of what is mentioned in here.

Basically my point in the original post was that we had Game 7 in the bag, not talking about overall series. And in that moment, holtby let us down.

To win you need to not let that happen. Its like the pressure of just needing to shut it down made him nervous, when it was tied he was back on his game pretty much in OT - although scrambling somewhat.

He has been great other times. Someone said he is the greatest playoff tendy of this generation and I really don't buy that. He has had great numbers overall, but going past the 2nd round once is not the best playoff goalie of the generation.

Anyways, good discussion. I was just finally venting my frustration with how things ended, since we should have been able to wrap that game up with a 3-1 lead. but caps gonna be caps

Also: only solace is I like to draw comparisons, and in 2012 after winning the cup Boston was ousted in game 7 overtime. then the Bs went on to reach the final the next year.

Hopefully we can follow suit.

 

[islandersdynasty]

They lost the series because they couldn’t win on the road.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

They lost the series because they couldn’t win on the road.

That had little or nothing to do with it. If the Caps hold serve at home they win the series. If the Caps don't blow two 2-goal leads at home in G7 they win the series. If the bottom 9 forwards contributed more offensively they win the series (8, 19, and 43 scored 60% of their goals). If Holtby didn't have two inexcusable gaffes they don't even go to OT and they win the series.

Not winning on the road is very, very far down the list especially when you're playing a team that hasn't been to the dance in 10 years and their arena is rocking.

 

[islandersdynasty]

That had little or nothing to do with it. If the Caps hold serve at home they win the series. If the Caps don't blow two 2-goal leads at home in G7 they win the series. If the bottom 9 forwards contributed more offensively they win the series (8, 19, and 43 scored 60% of their goals). If Holtby didn't have two inexcusable gaffes they don't even go to OT and they win the series.

Not winning on the road is very, very far down the list especially when you're playing a team that hasn't been to the dance in 10 years and their arena is rocking.

I agree that the Caps should have just won all their home games. But I saw a big disparity in the quality of play at home (17 goals) vs. on the road (3 goals) against the Canes. Really, the series should not have come down to a 7th game given that Washington is a much better team. You can’t expect to win the Cup if you can’t play well on the road. Last year, of course, was complete opposite, with the Caps clinching all 4 series on the road.

 

[Hivemind]

On one hand: I find this thread awfully reactionary. The Capitals lost four games in the series, not just one. The whole team laid an awful lot of goose eggs, especially in the three games played in Carolina. It's hard to single out Holtby for his game 7 performance when most of the roster failed to show up for large chunks of the series. They looked slower, sloppier, and tired (even in some of the games they won, which were done off the back of efficient special teams in G1 and G2). Why focus on Holtby when the $7.8M man Kuznetsov was inconsistent at best. He put up some points (50% of which came on the PP), but was sloppy with the puck, unable to generate sustained offensive time for his line, and often pinned in his own zone or defeated by the Canes neutral zone schemes. Vrana laid a goose egg on the scoreboard in the series, and was held shotless in three different games. Even if Vrana didn't really have a memorable gaffe, he was essentially invisible and the bar has to be higher than "don't screw up." The entire bottom six failed to produce meaningful secondary scoring, with Connolly, Eller, and Burakovsky producing only two even-strength points a piece as the high water mark for the group. Hagelin was shuffled all over the line-up, including in the top 6 when Oshie went down, and still only produced a single assist. For as much as he was lauded for helping the PK, the team needs more contributions from its depth players than just killing penalties (and especially if one of the top 4 PK forwards, Tom Wilson, comes from a top line role). Hagelin had the 4th most shifts/game and was sixth in total ice time among forwards, the Capitals needed some semblance of offense from him. Even Backstrom and Ovechkin, for as great as they were offensively, had some pretty poor defensive play and were on the ice for a 11 and 9 goals against each.


On the other hand: In the bigger picture, it's time to start assessing how long the Holtby era will last. This is in no way driven by his game 7 performance, but rather by the fact he's going to command a huge contract and he's not getting any younger. Big contracts for goalies tend to come with some very significant risk, and have gone south more often than they have worked out. The potential upside of signing Holtby to a big contract is you get an elite goalie at the price of an elite goalie. The downside is you get a regressing (or injured or generally underperforming) goalie at the price of an elite goalie and is essentially impossible to get off the books. It will be awfully hard to get value beyond the sticker price on Holtby's next contract, but there's plenty of risk of getting far less than what they're paying for. And unlike forwards or defensemen that can have their ice time managed and still be made into a quasi-useful asset even if they're overpaid, goalies that are struggling are either dead cap space if they're relegated to back-up, or actively destroying the teams' odds of winning if they're in the line-up. The Capitals need to assess quickly what they think Holtby is worth to the franchise, how quickly they believe Samsonov will be NHL ready, how to deal with the Seattle expansion draft, and what to make of Copley.

 

[StrikingDistance]

There's a myriad of reasons we're having this discussion and Holtby is just 1 part of it.

How about: The Caps spent a lot of energy playing the last 10 games to get favorable seeding and ran out of steam/ interest? Battling those 3 with the Bolts, the 2 with Carolina, etc etc

Here's another mystery factor: Maybe beating the Canes late in the reg season made them over-confident? They played sloppy the 1st two games and still won. Maybe they thought that would continue?

Sucks they're not playing now, but too many variable to blame 1 person. Don't even get me started on our PP. Tangent: Are the Blues trying to copy our PP? LOL

 

[Hivemind]

Tangent: Are the Blues trying to copy our PP? LOL

Most of the league plays the 1-3-1 now. For everything else Adam Oates did poorly, he changed how teams across the league play with the man advantage. It went from being a relatively niche deployment that was more popular in Europe to being the NHL standard because of the Capitals' success with it.

That being said, the Capitals still tailor their implementation around their very specific weapons (namely Ovechkin), which changes how they handle the 1-3-1 compared to a "generic" 1-3-1 approach.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

There’s always plenty of blame but when your big $ guys don’t play up to par, it’s more noticeable and worthy of being singled out IMO.

74
70
92

Plus the loss of 77.

Tough for even Super Ovy to overcome that list.

Holtby didn’t make the key saves when he needed to. He’s not alone, but he’s just as culpable. Not much else to say honestly.

 

[WcRoenick97]

I still can’t believe we blew TWO 2 goal leads that game, but after that shorty goal it felt like it was inevitable that we would lose. If we had just got it to 3-0 in that first period it’s lights out and we move on. It just sucks because every other series went our way and I legit think we make the Finals again even with the injuries we had sustained. But...we will be there next year. Just get this team rested up. No team in the East really scares me. The Canes will definitely be a pain in the ass going forward but they could face that sophomore slump and not even make the playoffs next year. You never know.