The Buffalo Sabres (and other weak teams) goalie value trap

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Let's be honest, many people actually think that they're winning trades/signings where the goalie they receive from the Sabres is actually good. Many are blinded to think that because the goalie posted an above average save percentage on such a bad team means they are elite goalies. But then there's the question. How in the world are all competent Sabre goalies since Miller all posting such fantastic stats on the Sabres and then even if they go to elite defensive and possession teams their stats can't even match the stats they had with the Sabres?

Look at Chad Johnson. Flames were ecstatic to get him, and thought he would be posting elite numbers with the Flames because he already had great numbers with the Sabres (And they also thought Elliott was going to be elite because of muh advanced stats with St. Louis). While Johnson had a fantastic hot streak at one point this season, I have to say his play for the most parts was better than with the Sabres yet his stats were way worse. What gives? I digged in further and realized Sabres play a style that limits high danger chances, and since they allow so many shots in general this massively inflates he goalie's save percentage.

This goes for basically every team who has "Terrible defense" and goalies posting great numbers. Don't be fooled by their numbers alone, it doesn't mean they'll suddenly become elite on great defensive teams.

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[BusQuets]

Bad team playing defensively usually means a lot of shots against but not necessary the most difficult ones. This is why goalies in those teams can post great sv%.

Opposite is for example team like Dallas that has a really weak blue-line but still plays offensively resulting maybe not many shots against but many high danger scoring chances which will make the goalies sv% look bad.

 

[dasaybz]

Something in the water? The Sabres have had good goalies pretty much forever.

 

[Thorton02]

Sabres have been blessed with good goalies for decades.

As far as the Tim Murray era, Buffalo did nothing but play defence and allowed a ton of shots. Every goalie looked amazing since the team was filled with scrubs that couldn't score so they decided to just play defence.

After the tank, we got Bylsma. Even though he had players that could score, he decided to implement a system designed to give the puck to the other team which also generated a lot of shots against.

I guess you could add that these were all back up goalies trying to prove that they could be a starter in the league so they were playing above their heads. On some terrible Buffalo teams, it wasn't hard to look like a potential bright spot in an otherwise bowl of filth.

 

[Ace]

Something in the water? The Sabres have had good goalies pretty much forever.

Buffalo and Anaheim. Entire existences of quality goaltending.

Buffalo couldn't find a bad goalie when they were trying to a couple years ago.

 

[tony d]

Buffalo's always had a good goalie. Hasek of course but guys like Don Edwards, Darren Puppa, a young Tom Barrasso, Ryan Miller have all played for the Sabres.

 

[SpookyTsuki]

Chad Johnson is the goalie you come up with this? Seriously?

Some goalies have a tough time adjusting. Hasek wasn't that great with the wings at first. He wasn't used to have his team blocking shots for him.

 

[JetsHomer]

I wish my teams terrible goalies could put up great stats....

 

[TOGuy14]

Some goalies thrive with a lot of action.

Off the top of my head Luongo always seems to do better when he is busier, not only in game, but when he gets lots of starts.

Thought Lu looked bad on teams where he was facing less than 20 shots a night

 

[ESH]

Chad Johnson is the goalie you come up with this? Seriously?

Some goalies have a tough time adjusting. Hasek wasn't that great with the wings at first. He wasn't used to have his team blocking shots for him.

Yeah really, it's not like Flames fans were expecting some elite goalie in Johnson

 

[Zip15]

Buffalo and Anaheim. Entire existences of quality goaltending.

Buffalo couldn't find a bad goalie when they were trying to a couple years ago.

Ah, good times when everyone was screaming for Neuvirth to be traded and Lindback to be benched because those two guys were "playing too well" during the tank.

 

[Fugazy]

Buffalo has had quite the history of great goalies.

 

[Yatzhee]

Yes, we here in Sabers land have been blessed with great net minders over the decades (and I remember them all).
But, a word of warning I suggest other fan bases heed.........that great net minding, 0 Stanley Cup Parades in downtown Buffalo.
I'd give all the Sabers memories I have, including the French Connection, Hasek, Drury/Breire/Miller era's for 1 championship.

Great goaltending doesn't mean Stanley Cup. Take it from us Sabres fans, we know.

 

[LeafFever]

There are bad goalies on good teams putting up good stats. Many goalies get their numbers inflated on good defensive teams (See Hitchcock goalies). They don't face many shots, and face few strong chances against.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

There are bad goalies on good teams putting up good stats. Many goalies get their numbers inflated on good defensive teams (See Hitchcock goalies). They don't face many shots, and face few strong chances against.

Well here's the funniest thing minus 2015-2016 Hutton (And Hutton actually played well that season) and Saros, every Nashville goalie has performed significantly worse than Rinne even during Rinne's poor seasons with the Preds. People like to attribute Preds D, but if anything Rinne actually makes his D look better than they are, with his puck abilities, rebound control, and puck freezing. When Rinne is poor, the defense minus Ekholm and Ellis are exposed, especially during the 2015-2016 season. Josi and Weber looked a lot worse than their actual play, but in 2014-2015, Josi and Weber looked far better than their actual poor play now and then because Rinne was back in his prime form.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Bad team playing defensively usually means a lot of shots against but not necessary the most difficult ones. This is why goalies in those teams can post great sv%.

Opposite is for example team like Dallas that has a really weak blue-line but still plays offensively resulting maybe not many shots against but many high danger scoring chances which will make the goalies sv% look bad.

Here's a funny thing, Niemi last season faced little high danger shots and overall chances. You gotta take those with a grain of salt now and then.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Nah man, I think you just drank too much of the Chad Johnson koolaid.

 

[The Thin White Duke]

Save percentage correlates positively with shots against for the vast majority of goalies, playoffs included.