The All Encompassing Evander Kane Thread II

[garret9]

Evander Kane's lack of scoring is only a cold streak

I wrote something...

The numbers indicate that Kane's scoring will bounce back in time. Here is why.

Prior to his suspension Winnipeg Jets forward Evander Kane had only accumulated four goals and six assists in twenty games. There was a lot of talk about "poor play" and the two game prohibition only added fuel to the fire.

There are some out there screaming for Kane to be traded before his value tanks to nothing.

Is Kane's drop in scoring an indication of a downward trend or is this a cold streak where we should expect Kane to bounce back?

http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2014...r-kanes-lack-of-scoring-is-only-a-cold-streak

Enjoy.

Again, this isn't to defend Kane of what he does or doesn't due, but to properly evaluate Kane's scoring.

Click to read more...

 

[StronGeer]

What timing you have!

 

[wpgsilver]

But that doesn't fit my narrow narrative!

 

[R3DDRAG0N]

#selfproclaimed50orbust
#freekane

 

[Gil Fisher]

nice article

what does IAP actually stand for?

 

[Romang67]

But that doesn't fit my narrow narrative!

It perfectly fits my narrow narrative!

 

[garret9]

nice article

what does IAP actually stand for?

Individual assist percentage.

It's the number of assists a player picks up per goal while a player is on the ice.
Play makers tend to have really high numbers and non play makers tend to have really low numbers. Just like Sh% players can vary a lot in small samples but regresses to the player's historical average over time.

Kane is not a playmaker so his numbers are usually lower, but it's just stupid low right now. He has always sat between 29.4 to 43.6 percent depending on the season. This season he's at 9 percent.

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

IDK what it all means. But I do still want Kane on my team.

 

[garret9]

IDK what it all means. But I do still want Kane on my team.

Coles notes version:

1) Kane's usage has been getting tougher each year. Especially in offensive/defensive zone deployment.

2) Despite tougher assignments, Kane has still been a benefit to the Jets shot and goal differentials.

3) Kane's shooting percentage is stupidly low (about half his norm) so he's missing a lot of goals than he'd normally have at this point for the amount of shots he's taken.

4) The number of Jets goals while Kane is on the ice that he gets an assist on is stupidly low (about 1/3 his norm) so he's missing a lot of assists than he'd normally have at this point for the amount of goals the Jets have scored while he's been on the ice.

5) Kane hasn't been doing anything different, so expecting this small <300 min sample to be defining of him instead of the 3000 min past is sketchy at best.

6) These numbers are known to bounce back and likely will. It's not that good luck will make up for bad luck, but that this low for percentages is unsustainable. The damage is done but it is unlikely he keeps this low of pace.

 

[Whileee]

...could someone please print out this analysis by Garret, wrap it around a wad of US bills, and courier to Kane? I'm pretty sure that would make his day. (He'll probably also be encouraged by the analytic article).

 

[roccerfeller]

...could someone please print out this analysis by Garret, wrap it around a wad of US bills, and courier to Kane? I'm pretty sure that would make his day. (He'll probably also be encouraged by the analytic article).

somehow, people will still find something to complain about

"how come Kane can't go to the post office himself? Why courier? Why not regular mail? Why US bills? Seems to indicate he doesn't want to be a Jet if its US bills. Why don't we ship Kane out by courrier instead?" etc..

Fantastic article, garret. This was very eye opening. Its why I'm a proponent of keeping the young players. Doesn't do any favours to ship them out.

(I agree Whilee - should be sent his way or something for those who are on the twitters or instagrams.)

Really cool, and a rare positive Kane piece backed up by facts and well thought out analysis, not arm-chair eyeballing and emotional sentiment (pro or against kane)

 

[Ducky10]

...could someone please print out this analysis by Garret, wrap it around a wad of US bills, and courier to Kane? I'm pretty sure that would make his day. (He'll probably also be encouraged by the analytic article).

I'll do it, but does seven $1 US bills qualify as a wad?

p.s one of them is ripped.

 

[theamazingchris]

IMO deployment is the biggest factor here, that a lot of people don't pay enough mind to with regards to Kane. His starts this year have been the hardest on the team. Actually, I'm pretty rosy with Pomo for seeing that Kane could do well in a defensive role; after all he's a damn good PKer. But given Kane's distaste for defensive zone play, it takes an enterprising coach to notice that he might have a talent for it!

Actually, hang on, maybe that's it! Kane hates D-Zone play so much, he gets the puck out ASAP!

 

[cheswick]

Not sure this article really persuades me that the people in the Kane is no longer the player he once was camp are incorrect.

Outside of the harder assignments angle, which has some merit. The crux of the argument is that Kane is below his historical averages, so will return to them. The people who are sayign he's no longer any good are saying, that no he will not return to the averages. Showing that he's below his averages isn't any sort of evidence that he will eventually return to them.

The coin flip analogy doesn't work at all. A coin is always the same. A player changes with age and becomes a worse hockey player.

 

[wpgsilver]

Not sure this article really persuades me that the people in the Kane is no longer the player he once was camp are incorrect.

Outside of the harder assignments angle, which has some merit. The crux of the argument is that Kane is below his historical averages, so will return to them. The people who are sayign he's no longer any good are saying, that no he will not return to the averages. Showing that he's below his averages isn't any sort of evidence that he will eventually return to them.

The coin flip analogy doesn't work at all. A coin is always the same. A player changes with age and becomes a worse hockey player.

Kane would be a pretty big outlier to have peaked at 21 years old.
I would perhaps buy that teams have figured out how he plays, but I don't buy age is the reason for any perceived decline.
He should be improving with age at this point.

 

[cbcwpg]

...could someone please print out this analysis by Garret, wrap it around a wad of US bills, and courier to Kane? I'm pretty sure that would make his day. (He'll probably also be encouraged by the analytic article).

I have wads of Canadian Tire money....more than enough to do pushups with.

As far as the article... it's compelling, but just because you have done something in the past doesn't mean you will do it again in the future.

I do wonder if some of Kane's "regression" is just him feeling the pressure of not putting up the numbers that are expected of him or that he expects of himself . Goal scores are expected to score, and there is pressure on them to do so regularly.

 

[sipowicz]

Read the article on Kane's supposed cold streak, agree with some of the points but not all, sure he's good defensively blah, blah, blah.. but I think his lack of goal scoring will become a long term problem for him unless he learns to adapt his game, something which he's hasn't done since his time in Winnipeg. Whether the Jets are a better team or play better with him in the line-up is also debatable and what his value in trade is compared to two seasons ago is also up for debate. He is an enigma!

 

[cheswick]

Kane would be a pretty big outlier to have peaked at 21 years old.
I would perhaps buy that teams have figured out how he plays, but I don't buy age is the reason for any perceived decline.
He should be improving with age at this point.

Age was just an example. Injury, personal problems any number of reasons can alter the ability of a player. The argument that he'll get better cause his historical average is better, doesn't necessarily hold true for a hockey player is my point.

 

[Whileee]

I have wads of Canadian Tire money....more than enough to do pushups with.

As far as the article... it's compelling, but just because you have done something in the past doesn't mean you will do it again in the future.

I do wonder if some of Kane's "regression" is just him feeling the pressure of not putting up the numbers that are expected of him or that he expects of himself . Goal scores are expected to score, and there is pressure on them to do so regularly.

.... uh, oh. There goes the entire premise of the "fancy stats" crowd. It was fun while it lasted.

 

[cbcwpg]

.... uh, oh. There goes the entire premise of the "fancy stats" crowd. It was fun while it lasted.

What's the first thing you read when investing in stocks? Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Same can be said of sports. Things can go up or down, just have to keep in mind they may not go the way you expect.

I don't want to bring Pavs into this, but it is interesting that for someone like Kane he is expected to bounce back from being down based on the "fancy stats", yet for Pavs he is expected to be down and stay down because of the "fancy stats".

I do believe it is is far more likely for Kane to bounce back and not Pavs though. But that's just based on a gut feel from playing and watching this game for my whole life.

I'm so confused... I just wanna watch hockey and not think about it.

 

[Romang67]

What's the first thing you read when investing in stocks? Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Same can be said of sports. Things can go up or down, just have to keep in mind they may not go the way you expect.

I don't want to bring Pavs into this, but it is interesting that for someone like Kane he is expected to bounce back from being down based on the "fancy stats", yet for Pavs he is expected to be down and stay down because of the "fancy stats".

I do believe it is is far more likely for Kane to bounce back and not Pavs though.

I'm so confused... I just wanna watch hockey and not think about it.

That's not very hard to understand though, is it? We're looking at the bigger sample in both cases.

 

[Whileee]

What's the first thing you read when investing in stocks? Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Same can be said of sports. Things can go up or down, just have to keep in mind they may not go the way you expect.

I don't want to bring Pavs into this, but it is interesting that for someone like Kane he is expected to bounce back from being down based on the "fancy stats", yet for Pavs he is expected to be down and stay down because of the "fancy stats".

I do believe it is is far more likely for Kane to bounce back and not Pavs though. But that's just based on a gut feel from playing and watching this game for my whole life.

I'm so confused... I just wanna watch hockey and not think about it.

...that's why smart hockey "fancy stats" guys don't play the markets.

I'm pretty sure that those guys would get depressed, eat too much chocolate ice cream, and watch Oprah re-runs non-stop if they found out that the "same can be said of" hockey. They count on past statistics to predict future performance....

 

[garret9]

...could someone please print out this analysis by Garret, wrap it around a wad of US bills, and courier to Kane? I'm pretty sure that would make his day. (He'll probably also be encouraged by the analytic article).

Kane's agent follows me and we talk from time to time

 

[Whileee]

Kane's agent follows me and we talk from time to time

...nice

 

[garret9]

Not sure this article really persuades me that the people in the Kane is no longer the player he once was camp are incorrect.

Outside of the harder assignments angle, which has some merit. The crux of the argument is that Kane is below his historical averages, so will return to them. The people who are sayign he's no longer any good are saying, that no he will not return to the averages. Showing that he's below his averages isn't any sort of evidence that he will eventually return to them.

The coin flip analogy doesn't work at all. A coin is always the same. A player changes with age and becomes a worse hockey player.

You are missing one important factor. It's not all things that need to return to his historical averages, only percentages which are already known to regress heavily to career levels.

If Kane's numbers were falling in Corsi% and shot volume and shot location, you'd have a leg to stand on, but the only thing that has moved is FenSh% and IAP. We already know these regress far, far, far, far more often than not.

The coinflip being random and players not is noted in the article. However, the analogy that 3:1 heads:tails ratio being completely more probable in 4 tosses than 1000 still holds water. Kane scoring at 2% of non-blocked shot attempts instead of his usual 5% is far more likely in 300 mins than 3000. Yes his "true-talent" may shift, but there is no real example of sustained collapse for that large of a shift instantly and all other numbers (ones we know more controlled by the individual) show no signs of Kane regressing that heavily.

Long story short: I know humans aren't robots and skill level can change due to age, injuries, and other factors. This is why I first look to things that are more signal and less noise like Kane's impact on Corsi, shot production, and other variables. When you have only variables that are known to be far less player driven being the only ones changing, you shouldn't assume it is the player changing.