authentic
Registered User
- Jan 28, 2015
- 25,924
- 10,977
I re-ran the model that I've been using this season. Assuming Matthews doesn't miss any games, the race is absolutely over. My model gives him a 99.97% chance of winning the Richard trophy. McDavid has less than a 0.1% chance.
If we assume Matthews misses the rest of the season, the race is still over. In that scenario, he has a 99.92% chance of winning the Richard trophy. McDavid's chances go up to 0.2%. There are too few games remaining on the schedule for him to have any realistic chance to catch up.
If someone offered to pay me $1 if Matthews won the Richard, and I had to pay them $1,000 if anyone else took the trophy, I'd take that bet (and sleep soundly at night).
It would be the easiest dollar you ever made.