Tear it down or keep the old gal rolling?

[twabby]

Boatload of injuries, 2 last gms were heartbreakers missing out on likely 4 pts, and we're basically right with the pack despite it all

NJ/PHI likely to come down some

If we go 6-4 next 10 we'll be right there competing and close to getting multiple players back including big Willy

so... Too Soon.

I wouldn’t count on NJ coming down much. They’re posting some of the best numbers in recent memory at 5v5 and everything about them except goaltending screams of a contender. Still, even with that duo they are on track to be a shoe-in for the postseason.

Pittsburgh and NYR are similarly posting good numbers but are getting PDOed at this point. I expect them to rise in the standings quite a bit as the season goes on. And Carolina is once again a rock solid team. That’s 4 teams that are clearly a step ahead of DC right now in terms of process, even if the results aren’t quite there for a few of them.

I think PHI will fall quite a bit. Hart is single-handedly winning games right now and it’s unsustainable.

 

[crazy8888]

But there's no one path for a rebuild. Whatever comes next it won't be the same as 04-08. So why can't the team proactively shape a rebuild themselves?

Like @895 said, keep a strong PP1 and sell off everything else. If they think they can get great futures for Kuzy, for example, target a Ribeiro-type for cheap to feed Ovie.

Arizona came into last night's game with the 3rd ranked PP. A strong PP isn't mutually exclusive with rebuilding.

Why rebuild now? This team can still
Be competitive. They just need to get a little hit younger. This year in particular is interesting. They are hopefully set get some rested players towards mid-end of the season. So in theory this could be a very dangerous team come playoff time. Now the issue is getting there. Which is why i think they need to make a significant trade now to give them a chance to make the playoffs. Trade mantha and a 1st for someone who moves the needle. Or something along these lines. There are 4 years left of Ovi and hopefully Nick too. Not one of these years should be spent rebuilding.

 

[twabby]

But there's no one path for a rebuild. Whatever comes next it won't be the same as 04-08. So why can't the team proactively shape a rebuild themselves?

Like @895 said, keep a strong PP1 and sell off everything else. If they think they can get great futures for Kuzy, for example, target a Ribeiro-type for cheap to feed Ovie.

Arizona came into last night's game with the 3rd ranked PP. A strong PP isn't mutually exclusive with rebuilding.

It’s probably just an argument about semantics then, and I agree with your overall point. When I see “rebuild” I see the mid 2000s Caps and Penguins, the 2015 Sabres, the current versions of the Coyotes and Blackhawks, etc.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Embarrassing panic talk right now…no reason to blow it up yet.

 

[John Price]

You must not be wiz fans Ted doesn't tank

 

[YippieKaey]

Blaming this poor start on injuries and using that as an argument to not shake things up is weird. The injuries correlate closely to player ages, and at least with Oshie, Carlson & Bäckström we've seen it before and will see it again

 

[zappa4ever]

I wouldn’t count on NJ coming down much. They’re posting some of the best numbers in recent memory at 5v5 and everything about them except goaltending screams of a contender. Still, even with that duo they are on track to be a shoe-in for the postseason.

Pittsburgh and NYR are similarly posting good numbers but are getting PDOed at this point. I expect them to rise in the standings quite a bit as the season goes on. And Carolina is once again a rock solid team. That’s 4 teams that are clearly a step ahead of DC right now in terms of process, even if the results aren’t quite there for a few of them.

I think PHI will fall quite a bit. Hart is single-handedly winning games right now and it’s unsustainable.

CAR is the only Metro team doing like it should, tho GA is higher this year
NYR has neg goal diff with a 3.00 GAA, Shesterkin not likely to be as good as 2021-22, doubt Kreider's getting 26PPG's again

NJD is pacing at 123 pts and are relying on Vanecek/Blackwood. Maybe they can sustain with inexperienced youths outskating everyone for 70 more games, maybe not. they haven't had to deal with any real adversity yet to make any long-term predictions

PIT is pretty healthy and losing to bad teams, looking like they're trying to get Sullivan fired, defense playing terrible, Dumo on his last leg

Parity is looking the most real it's ever been
Metro is wide open, even for the Caps

 

[RedRocking]

Way too early. I don’t get why everything has to be determined right this instant, a month into the season.

Trade everyone right now! There’s no point watching any of the 85% of the season left, waiting for injured players to come back, or even waiting until the trade deadline!

If we don’t play young player X today, then why don’t we just trade him?!? It’s such a waste! He’ll be useless at age 22 next year!

Anyways, I know I’m exaggerating a bit, lol. I think the rebuild question is certainly on the horizon, and unlike some, I’m not sure I care enough about 895 for it to keep this team hostage for 4 years. But it probably will, whether I like it or not. Which means keeping guys like Kuzy and Carlson around until Ovi retires.

I’m fine letting this season play out, and if we miss the playoffs hopefully we get a decent pick out if it (and sell at TDL). Maybe Lavi then gets fired too. The team is trending to such a tipping point.

This discussion will be more germane in the off-season when there will be a ton of flexibility, and the direction of the team will truly be decided - fill holes/retool, or embrace a full rebuild.

 

[g00n]

Blaming this poor start on injuries and using that as an argument to not shake things up is weird. The injuries correlate closely to player ages, and at least with Oshie, Carlson & Bäckström we've seen it before and will see it again

They have 9 guys out. Like 50% of their salary cap.

You're talking about guys in their early 30s. So trade everyone over 30 and start over?

If you let the league know you never keep anyone over 30 you never get good players because nobody wants to sign with you long-term. And other GMs will lowball you on your older players because they know you want to offload them.

This isn't a video game.

 

[StrikingDistance]

Blaming this poor start on injuries and using that as an argument to not shake things up is weird. The injuries correlate closely to player ages, and at least with Oshie, Carlson & Bäckström we've seen it before and will see it again

Hmmm, with 9 player out including several core top players, how much more shaken do you want it? On a Richter scale, this is about an 8.0.

 

[YippieKaey]

They have 9 guys out. Like 50% of their salary cap.

You're talking about guys in their early 30s. So trade everyone over 30 and start over?

If you let the league know you never keep anyone over 30 you never get good players because nobody wants to sign with you long-term. And other GMs will lowball you on your older players because they know you want to offload them.

This isn't a video game.

If your star players are a couple of years past 30, underperforming and have a well-documented history of injury yes.

These events are surprising to noone. I called it before the season began and i was unfortunately right. So it's not age per se, rather the concomitant effects of being a pro athlete in an older body.

Hmmm, with 9 player out including several core top players, how much more shaken do you want it? On a Richter scale, this is about an 8.0.

Yeah, so then we have two options:

1. Continue as now, and reap zero benefits from the shakeup

2. Trade the old guys and reap at least some benefits from the shakeup.

 

[DWGie26]

We don’t have any bodies to trade right now even if we wanted to. Sure, we can look at standings and talent come trade deadline time and see if we can pick up some extra Assets for when the rebuild really needs to happen.

But timing of this pole is A bit silly. It’s asking a loaded question to people who are frustrated with the loses. But this is the time to see who can play at this level and fight through some injuries. Not time to fire front office and trade everyone away And just quit on a season. That is loser mindset.

 

[g00n]

If your star players are a couple of years past 30, underperforming and have a well-documented history of injury yes.

These events are surprising to noone. I called it before the season began and i was unfortunately right. So it's not age per se, rather the concomitant effects of being a pro athlete in an older body.

Who specifically are you talking about?

-They're stuck by the Backstrom situation due to his injury and contract.
-Oshie gets hurt a lot but he's usually great in the playoffs and worth holding on to. He has a modified no trade clause.
-Wilson is an asset and also usually good in the playoffs. Trade him at 28? Also has a modified NTC. Losing him doesn't make this team better.
-Brown was to be a top 6 RW, possibly RW1 at $3.6M which is a steal, and he's 28. Trade him before he even plays a full season?
-Orlov is 31 and our best defenseman, imo. Good value for $5.1M and is in final year of contract with a modified NTC.
-Carlson...no argument there, I've been calling for him to be traded for at least a year. But again there's a modified NTC. And now an injury.
-Hagenlin...what can you do.
-I doubt Beck got hurt because of age

So who are you talking about that makes sense in terms of moving the guy for value? Which old guys who should've been traded got hurt? Which old guys who aren't hurt are you trying to trade and who do you replace them with?

There are plenty of guys over 30 putting up good or great numbers and playing a full season or close to it.

Stamkos, Josi, Panarin, Kane, Kadri, Duchene, Hedman, Crosby, Tarasenko, Pavelski, Marchand, Zuccarello, Kreider, Tavares, Letang, etc

f*** those guys, eh?

 

[YippieKaey]

Who specifically are you talking about?

-They're stuck by the Backstrom situation due to his injury and contract.
-Oshie gets hurt a lot but he's usually great in the playoffs and worth holding on to. He has a modified no trade clause.
-Wilson is an asset and also usually good in the playoffs. Trade him at 28? Also has a modified NTC. Losing him doesn't make this team better.
-Brown was to be a top 6 RW, possibly RW1 at $3.6M which is a steal, and he's 28. Trade him before he even plays a full season?
-Orlov is 31 and our best defenseman, imo. Good value for $5.1M and is in final year of contract with a modified NTC.
-Carlson...no argument there, I've been calling for him to be traded for at least a year. But again there's a modified NTC. And now an injury.
-Hagenlin...what can you do.
-I doubt Beck got hurt because of age

So who are you talking about that makes sense in terms of moving the guy for value? Which old guys who should've been traded got hurt? Which old guys who aren't hurt are you trying to trade and who do you replace them with?

There are plenty of guys over 30 putting up good or great numbers and playing a full season or close to it.

Stamkos, Josi, Panarin, Kane, Kadri, Duchene, Hedman, Crosby, Tarasenko, Pavelski, Marchand, Zuccarello, Kreider, Tavares, Letang, etc

f*** those guys, eh?

Specifically Carlson, Hagelin, Oshie, Bäckström. Before they got hurt or as soon as we lazied out of the playoffs for the third year in a row.

The players in bolded are all producing when it matters. Our guys aren't. Simple as that

 

[g00n]

Specifically Carlson, Hagelin, Oshie, Bäckström. Before they got hurt or as soon as we lazied out of the playoffs for the third year in a row.

The players in bolded are all producing when it matters. Our guys aren't. Simple as that

Oshie is good playoff performer.

Again, no argument on Carlson as he's been unwiped ass in the playoffs for years. But he produces in the regular season so he gets a pass from the press and management. There's also that NTC.

Backstrom...how are you going to trade him? We can't go back in time. This is unreasonable. We're seeing cap relief from him right now and there's a good chance he'll have to retire soon.

Hagelin may not play again, either.

So this "rebuild" is trading Carlson somehow despite his injury and NTC, and going back in time and trading those other guys?

Who's going to take them and what do you think you'll get back?

Or are you just playing the "we shoulda" hindsight game? That has nothing to do with next steps, does it?

 

[g00n]

Also, I don't see how this fits in the "old and therefore injury prone and should've been traded" story that's being used to pat yourself on the back.

Carlson may be ass in the playoffs but he eats a lot of minutes and when guys get lower body injuries from weird hits (iirc) then that doesn't really qualify as wear and tear due to age.

Same can be said with Hagelin who got a freak eye injury. Nothing to do with age.

Oshie is a guy who throws his body around every night and is a heart and soul locker room guy. Are you going to trade him for getting banged up as a result of that? What kind of message does that send about supporting commitment to the team?

Backstrom is the only one you can reasonably say may have been hurt from wear and tear due to age, and again he's on LTIR now and who knows if he'll ever play again. But there was no way he was going to be traded. He'll probably retire a Capital.

So I don't see this as anything other than guys hating on some of the older core players and trying to atodaso when some of them get hurt for reasons unrelated to age.

There is no realistic scenario where we could've or would've traded Oshie or even Backstrom, while Hagelin was part of a very effective 4th line before he went down.

Carlson is the only guy you can say 'we should've gotten value when we had the chance" imo. And again I don't think his injury has anything to do with age.

That's it. And it's still not an age-related injury story.

 

[kicksavedave]

I know we set the clocks back an hour today, but I didn't realize we also set the calendar to a week before the TDL. This conversation today is a little silly, seems like a big pile of "I told you so" or something.

It will be a much more interesting topic when we see where they are in the standings, how healthy they are, as the TDL approaches. For now, meh, they'll be OK.

 

[IafrateOvie34]

I have been optimistic over the years and was especially eager for this year with actual NHL goaltending, however I feel it's time to rebuild while helping Ovy get his record. Why? I don't feel some players have what it takes to be a SC winner. Mike Keenan once said that Curtis Joseph will never be a Stanley Cup winning goalie and he was right. I feel that way about players like Mantha. While he is skilled and has size, he does not display the competitive drive to be a winner. Before folks chime in and say, "We're severely depleted by injuries", I want to say winners get over those humps and our goalies should be able overcome those stints. Our goalies can't steal games when players quit in the last few minutes of games. Year after year this team depends on Ovy doing all the work and ride his coattails with exception to a few players on the team. Playing lazy and giving up on plays late in the game and squandering precious points to fringe teams isn't a recipe for success and ruined Ovy's record celebration last night. If and when the organization does rebuild I hope they do so from the very top down. No more Dick Patrick, no keeping the GM, or keeping the coaching staff. Do a total do over with an innovative, modern, and younger GM/Coach. While I respect the old dinosaurs and grew up with them, it's time to quit thinking it's the same NHL because it isn't. I can't say I believe a rebuild will be like Buffalo's lengthy rebuild mainly because we have some nice prospects like Miro, Lapiere, and Iorio coming. I do believe they should keep the scouting staff. I guess what I'm saying is either play as a winner or get the hell out via trade or retire. I'm for winning always, but I just don't see this happening this year. Of course the organization will cry injuries over the fact this team has needed motivated players in a retool. Also, I don't put my faith in tanking because there isn't no guarantee now and only encourages lazy players to be even more lazy. Sure it's way too early in the season, but at some point reality settles in. We have a lot of coasting players on this team who don't play up to their contract. I'll take a team of Hathaways over guys like Mantha anyday. Additionally, playing perimeter hockey and not driving to the net and dirty areas will never equate to winning ever. Hell, Alan May sound like he is on replay every night post game and during intermissions pointing this stuff out, but yet they continue the perimeter play.

 

[IafrateOvie34]

CAR is the only Metro team doing like it should, tho GA is higher this year
NYR has neg goal diff with a 3.00 GAA, Shesterkin not likely to be as good as 2021-22, doubt Kreider's getting 26PPG's again

NJD is pacing at 123 pts and are relying on Vanecek/Blackwood. Maybe they can sustain with inexperienced youths outskating everyone for 70 more games, maybe not. they haven't had to deal with any real adversity yet to make any long-term predictions

PIT is pretty healthy and losing to bad teams, looking like they're trying to get Sullivan fired, defense playing terrible, Dumo on his last leg

Parity is looking the most real it's ever been
Metro is wide open, even for the Caps

While it is my opinion only, I do not feel NJD are going to sustain at this rate. Yes the metro is wide open, but points can't be just squandered either.

 

[YippieKaey]

Oshie is good playoff performer.

Again, no argument on Carlson as he's been unwiped ass in the playoffs for years. But he produces in the regular season so he gets a pass from the press and management. There's also that NTC.

Backstrom...how are you going to trade him? We can't go back in time. This is unreasonable. We're seeing cap relief from him right now and there's a good chance he'll have to retire soon.

Hagelin may not play again, either.

So this "rebuild" is trading Carlson somehow despite his injury and NTC, and going back in time and trading those other guys?

Who's going to take them and what do you think you'll get back?

Or are you just playing the "we shoulda" hindsight game? That has nothing to do with next steps, does it?

When healthy. This year, it's looking pretty unlikely we'll make playoffs. So, his playoff performances won't be needed.

But you're right, there's probably an element of "we shoulda" there. For me, that shoulda shoulda come after the third straight first round playoff exit.

But as to your point regarding the next steps:

Trade Oshie, Carlson, Mantha for the best package you can get whether that's draft picks or young players. Try to trade Bäckströms LTIR to for instance Arizona, try with Hageln (they might have tried with him, and im not sure these two are feasible).

This organisation desperately needs to get younger, hungrier and faster. The sooner we do it the better the odds of a retool keeping us relevant. But the time is now, most of those players will be completely untradeable in a year or two. Carlson for instance might fetch a pretty good return to a playoff contender. Oshie as well if he ever gets healthy.

So i suggest tearing to down severely by the trade deadline (even Kuzy is on the table) if we're not in a playoff spot. If we are, give em another go but you know as well as i do that anything outside of a quick first-round exit is almost hallucinatory at this point.

How about this in 3-5 isch years

Miro- Lapierre- Wilson
Ovi (forever)-McMichael- Suzdalev
Milano-Snively- Protas
Malenstyn-Pilon-Brown

Chesley-Fehervary
Iorio- Alexeyev
Nardella-Unknown

Compliment this lineup with 1 or 2 somewhat big names and imagine that all draft picks turn into what they're projected to become and it's not a horrible lineup.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

You can’t change course completely in the middle of the season. Management has committed financially to ice the same core we’ve had since 2018, we can’t deviate from that plan anymore until next offseason.

Depending on the outcome of the season, you can look at retooling and giving the core a new look.

Forward situation:
I think they keep Backstrom’s contract, since he will likely be on LTIR for the remainder of his career.

Find a trade partner to unload the remainder of Oshie’s contract.

Eller and Hagelin are on expiring contracts, so you let them go this summer.

You probably keep 2-3/4 of this bunch: Strome, Sheary, Hathaway, Johansson.

For Aube-Kubel and Milano, determine if they’ve done enough to earn a new contract.

Defense situation:
This is where it gets a bit complicated.

Bring back Orlov and Jensen if possible.

Let TVR, Gustafsson and Irwin go to free agency.

Reduce Carlson’s role and spend money in FA on a top 4 D or acquire one via trade.

 

[YippieKaey]

You can’t change course completely in the middle of the season. Management has committed financially to ice the same core we’ve had since 2018, we can’t deviate from that plan anymore until next offseason.

Depending on the outcome of the season, you can look at retooling and giving the core a new look.

Forward situation:
I think they keep Backstrom’s contract, since he will likely be on LTIR for the remainder of his career.

Find a trade partner to unload the remainder of Oshie’s contract.

Eller and Hagelin are on expiring contracts, so you let them go this summer.

You probably keep 2-3/4 of this bunch: Strome, Sheary, Hathaway, Johansson.

For Aube-Kubel and Milano, determine if they’ve done enough to earn a new contract.

Defense situation:
This is where it gets a bit complicated.

Bring back Orlov and Jensen if possible.

Let TVR, Gustafsson and Irwin go to free agency.

Reduce Carlson’s role and spend money in FA on a top 4 D or acquire one via trade.

You wouldn't trade Eller?

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

You must not be wiz fans Ted doesn't tank

They literally tanked their asses off to get Ovechkin.

 

[Kuz]

You can’t change course completely in the middle of the season. Management has committed financially to ice the same core we’ve had since 2018, we can’t deviate from that plan anymore until next offseason.

Depending on the outcome of the season, you can look at retooling and giving the core a new look.

Forward situation:
I think they keep Backstrom’s contract, since he will likely be on LTIR for the remainder of his career.

Find a trade partner to unload the remainder of Oshie’s contract.

Eller and Hagelin are on expiring contracts, so you let them go this summer.

You probably keep 2-3/4 of this bunch: Strome, Sheary, Hathaway, Johansson.

For Aube-Kubel and Milano, determine if they’ve done enough to earn a new contract.

Defense situation:
This is where it gets a bit complicated.

Bring back Orlov and Jensen if possible.

Let TVR, Gustafsson and Irwin go to free agency.

Reduce Carlson’s role and spend money in FA on a top 4 D or acquire one via trade.

You dont need to tear it down completely, but perhaps a retool while trying to get value back for UFA's if playoffs look unlikely closer to the trade deadline.

Johanssen @ 0,55 is definetely worth something for another team.
Hathaway @ 0,75 for a team in need of a tough player who plays a solid game
Shaery @ 0,75 for a team that needs a winger who will score some goals and can play where needed.
Eller @ 1,75 for a team in need of center depth.

Then you have defencemen Orlov, Jensen, TVR and Gustafsson. Caps need to find out who they are going to keep as they dont have the cap space to keep all. If you are out by the TDL trade the ones you will let go @ 50%.

If you are in the playoff race keep all. If the distance to a playoffspot seem to be to far away. Try and retool while getting value for the future from the players that will leave as UFA's after the season anyway.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

You wouldn't trade Eller?

I would, but what kind of return would we get? Maybe a 5th round pick?