Team "Unsustainable" vs. Team "Sustainable"

Discussion in 'Polls - (hockey-related only)' started by Ainec, Nov 6, 2018.

?

Which line would you take in a best of 7 this year only

  1. Unsustainable

    68.9%
  2. Sustainable

    31.1%
  1. Ainec

    Ainec Tom Wilson'd by the league (HF)

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    Team "Unsustainable"
    B.Tkachuk (2018) - Pettersson (2017) - Debrincat (2016)
    iSH% (averaged): 42.9%
    PDO (averaged): 129.2

    Team "Sustainable"
    M.Tkachuk (2016) - Hischier (2017) - A.Svechnikov (2018)
    iSH% (averaged): 0.8%
    PDO (averaged): 61.2
     
  2. CP4

    CP4 Registered User

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    Unsustainable AINEC
     
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  3. Neddam ot Sehguh

    Neddam ot Sehguh Nosskire ot Dnulnarg W

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    Team Pettersson
     
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  4. Deficient Mode

    Deficient Mode Registered User

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    How exactly did you arrive at these numbers? Hischier had a 101.33 PDO last year and clearly fell on the side of good shooting luck. Matt Tkachuk had a 100.46 PDO in 16-17.
     
  5. Hidden Hair of Hynes

    Hidden Hair of Hynes Registered User

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    If you think Hischier had good shooting luck......::

    yikes
     
  6. FerklundCGY

    FerklundCGY Registered User

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    He had an oiSH% of 10.7%.

    If that's unlucky, I don't know what to tell you
     
  7. 93LEAFS

    93LEAFS Registered User

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    Why are we using PDO and not the more direct oiSH%, which is the entire contributor for the offensive luck side of the PDO equation?
     
  8. Hidden Hair of Hynes

    Hidden Hair of Hynes Registered User

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    Try watching instead of following some stats that clearly don't portray the picture
     
  9. TT1

    TT1 Registered User

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    I like team sustainable's forward group more than team unsustainable's but Pettersson is the best forward of the bunch.. kinda hard to decide tbh.
     
  10. FerklundCGY

    FerklundCGY Registered User

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    Hischier had the 11th highest 5v5 oiSH% last season. There was absolutely nothing "unlucky" about his season lmao
     
  11. JoeThorntonsRooster

    JoeThorntonsRooster Brent Burns was a Ted Lindsay Finalist

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    Billions of years of evolution have led us to this moment right here.
     
  12. CP4

    CP4 Registered User

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    Are you calling me stupid for my choice?
     
  13. Ainec

    Ainec Tom Wilson'd by the league (HF)

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    PDO is more of a name-brand, only wanted to include two advanced stats and I can't leave the iconic one out
     
  14. 93LEAFS

    93LEAFS Registered User

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    It just makes limited sense to use it for what you are trying to measure. When judging point totals or offensive abilities, no one cares what rate the goalie is stopping the puck when you are on the ice.
     
  15. Hidden Hair of Hynes

    Hidden Hair of Hynes Registered User

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    Trust the numbers instead of having watched yourself, i dont deal with such faulty logic
     
  16. Ainec

    Ainec Tom Wilson'd by the league (HF)

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    I don't disagree

    everyone knows and owns Apple phones but what the hell is a OnePlus
     
  17. Deficient Mode

    Deficient Mode Registered User

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    He was only unlucky if you expect a player to never miss an open net or a high danger chance. All players do this, however, so it's an extremely unreasonable standard. Hischier got a large share of his shots from the front of the net, but his conversion rate on those shots was just fine compared to expectation.

    Is the poll only asking offensive ability? On-ice save percentage impacts public perception of forwards too since some still use +/-.
     
  18. 93LEAFS

    93LEAFS Registered User

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    Does anyone here still actually care about plus/minus outside the petty use of it in player vs player debates? But, oiSH% way better captures the sustainability of point production, which seems to be the emphasis here.
     
  19. Deficient Mode

    Deficient Mode Registered User

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    Team "sustainable" (really a PDO of 61 is extremely unsustainable) has better players imo. Obviously you take the high PDO guys over the low PDO guys if that's going to be their PDO over the seven game series. Still not clear to me when Hischier, M Tkachuk, and Svechnikov ever had a PDO close to 61.7.

    I see some people defend its use so IDK. Seems like on-ice goal differential is re-gaining popularity with some analytics types despite the overwhelming evidence that skaters don't control their on-ice save percentage.
     
  20. tony d

    tony d Registered User Sponsor

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    Give me Team Unsustainable.
     
  21. ijuka

    ijuka Registered User

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    Plus/minus went from overvalued to undervalued. -12 in 15 games or something like that(See Ristolainen) is still something to take into account. The main reasons plus/minus is a bad output stat is because:
    1. -20 over 100 games is very different from -20 over 10 games, while GF% doesn't have such an issue
    2. It is affected by 6v5 and tends to favor defensive players who are out on the ice to defend a lead and to make offensive players trying to score a tying goal disadvantaged.

    However, if you understand and recognize this, it still is as viable of an output(what actually happened)-type stat as any. You shouldn't just brush significant plus / minus issues aside with "it's a useless stat" simply because if plus / minus is terrible within its context, chances are that the stronger stats like GF% are terrible as well.


    Oh, and team Unsustainable.
     
  22. 93LEAFS

    93LEAFS Registered User

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    A stat the punishes someone for just being on the PP (because even if you are the best PP player in the world, you can only get a negative, and the opposite holds true for PKing), and gives bonus points for just being on the PK is useless. While I don't think GF% is great, it at least eliminates that ridiculousness.
     
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  23. DominicBoltsFan

    DominicBoltsFan Put another p on the calendar ;)

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    A player still can’t make his goalie make a save, much prefer xGf% which doesn’t get tanked by bad oisv%
     

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