Confirmed Trade: [TBL/TOR] Brian Boyle for Byron Froese and a 2nd round pick

[janesy12]

No I know about stupid management and have worn the badge for a good many years now. I also know that Leafs fans love when management gets guys like Big Sexy for a PO race. This is Big Sexy 2017 edition, could have been a flaming piece of you know what. We have 3 good Dmen and 1 of them can't defend for his life right now. So 2D and we get a 4C while we have a big 4C showing a lot of promise.

The problem is though, is Babcock seems hesitant to use Gauthier for some reason. If this is what it takes to get Ben Smith out of the lineup for good, I'm happy.

You didn't cringe seeing JVR - Smith - Brown?

We needed centre depth, we just got it.
Defense is something we need to target with term in mind, not a rental. We need an impact top 4 D.

 

[X66]

Of course 2nd picks matter and have value, that's why Tampa accepted the trade.

This is the luxury of stock piling so many picks and prospects like the Leafs have lately that you can make these types of moves with a lot more comfort.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

I was a bit surprised by this deal, since the obvious need is to upgrade a more pressing need a top 4 D man for the Leafs.

Leafs have now traded 3 draft picks for Anderson and Boyle. Team seems to be changing philosophies from acquiring picks to dealing them again for more immediate help.

Boyle is a useful player who will be a UFA so the price is the going rate for a rental was pricey if he does not sign with the Leafs. Deal will help Leafs in the short term, while Yzerman who is usually very sharp, may be signaling he is putting a sell button on the season. Got a valuable top 60 pick in abeit in a weaker draft before he lost it for nothing.

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

Trading 2nd round picks for 4th liners is the opposite of stockpiling.

 

[X66]

Trading 2nd round picks for 4th liners is the opposite of stockpiling.

When you stockpile picks and prospects the way they have the last two years you can make moves like this a lot more comfortably.

 

[AlienWorkShop]

LOL. So because "traditionally" the Leafs haven't drafted well, they're not valuable, huh? Man. A new low for Leaf fans........trading away 2nds is good because the LEAFS have been so bad at using them.

Uh........that's all the more reason to keep as many as you can. Y'know, so that if you suck at assessing talent, you can better your odds at drafting a keeper?

PK Subban, Brandon Saad, James Neal, Patrice Bergeron, Duncan Keith, Slava Kozlov, Adam Foote, Joe Neiwendyk, Claude Lemieux, Patrick Elias, Chris Chelios, Mike Cammaleri, Jason Pominville, Matt Stajan, Corey Crawford, John Gibson, Mike Fisher, Mike Ribeiro, Shea Weber, Loui Eriksson, David Backes, David Krejci, Alex Goligoski, Mike Peca, Roman Josi, AND MANY MANY MORE.............all 2nd round picks.

Now once again I say that I like Boyle. But if he doesn't re-sign with us and only plays 20 games, this is a stupid trade for us. Let's hope it works out.

Good heavens. I was merely evoking recent Leafs picks for the sake of anecdote (and I tend to argue the Leafs have been better drafters than most think... and shouldn't your counterargument have started with bringing up effective Leafs draft picks like Kulemin or Stajan??)

And then you respond with a list of 2nd rounders that goes back to Chelios in 1981?!?! Hahahaha. We got Kaberle in the 8th round back in 1996 - why didn't that entirely shift how we value 8th rounders to this day?!

Nobody has ever said, or will ever say, that NHL teams have never found an effective player in the 2nd round.

The point is to multiply the value of the typical player you've brought up in your list by the probability of a 2nd rounder becoming one (and by going back to 1981, your denominator is some 900+ haha)

There have been several studies that go beyond your anecdotal list (and apologies if you're taking this as patronizing).

Just for a couple examples, when Cullen did a subjective ranking system, he found the average 2nd round pick value to be a "very good minor leaguer": http://www2.tsn.ca/fantasy_news/story/?id=455673

Now Cullen's uses an ordinal ranking, so it's not exactly scientific, so how about Tulsky's look at actual pick-for-pick trades to essentially crowdsource how GMs value picks: http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/4/25/4262594/nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up You see how steeply the value drops after the first 5-10 picks. It takes roughly 3 mid-2nd round picks to equal a late 1st...

Or how about this effort to combine a bunch of different studies and show the value distribution of picks: https://puckalytics.com/blog/2016/05/15/draft-pick-value/ You can again see the falloff from the 1st to the 2nd round, and how 3rd rounders aren't that much further of a drop (while I've also found it kinda interesting that 4th-7th rounders are almost interchangeable)

Hence, why I mentioned my admiration of Burke's willingness to trade away 2nd round draft picks that: a) you always need to multiply by the probability of them turning into anything (like any draft pick, but the probability's lower than many think for 2nd rounders), b) you (like any draft pick) apply a discount rate to by how much you value that player (ever) arriving 3-4 years from today (and that discount rate of course varies by where your team is at currently), and c) are almost universally considered 'just about as good as 1st!' by many fans, media, and NHL personnel, even though the drop-off in draft pick value actually happens mid 1st-round (or even earlier).

Oh yeah, and this draft year sucks.

 

[tony d]

Getting Boyle makes sense IMO, that said they have to get him re-signed. As the team gets better a veteran like Boyle will do more for the team than a 2nd round pick in what looks to be a weak draft.

 

[MLSE]

Horrible team at ending games. It was needed heavily.

Also, Boyle sounds like a good man.. probably can resign him if he likes his time here.

 

[Commander Clueless]

I'm seeing a lot of posts from Leafs fans overrating the 2nd (in what seems like a bad draft), and saying this is a "bad trade", hence my surprise.

We're still a little sensitive about trading picks.



Boyle's a great pickup in the now, but I'm a little surprised they were buying at all.


I do hope they re-sign him, because he's a massive upgrade on Ben Smith and is basically what we hope Freddy Gauthier can become one day.

 

[Nizdizzle]

 

[Neutral Hockey Fan]

Nobody will argue that


You add one of the best defensive Center's in the league to a team that has struggled holding leads in the third period, it's an absolute gaurantee that the blown leads disappear.

If the leafs won even half of the games they lost a third period lead in, they would be 6 points up on Montreal with games in hand. Boyle was the best pick up imaginable for the leafs

 

[Nizdizzle]

Nobody will argue that


You add one of the best defensive Center's in the league to a team that has struggled holding leads in the third period, it's an absolute gaurantee that the blown leads disappear.

If the leafs won even half of the games they lost a third period lead in, they would be 6 points up on Montreal with games in hand. Boyle was the best pick up imaginable for the leafs

While I don't disagree it addressed some big weaknesses for the Leafs, I think you need to temper your expectations. The Leafs collapses can't be entirely negated by the addition of a single player.

 

[Holymakinaw]

Nobody will argue that


You add one of the best defensive Center's in the league to a team that has struggled holding leads in the third period, it's an absolute gaurantee that the blown leads disappear.

If the leafs won even half of the games they lost a third period lead in, they would be 6 points up on Montreal with games in hand. Boyle was the best pick up imaginable for the leafs

LMAO.

Ugh. Jesus Christ. Some Leaf fans.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

Nobody will argue that


You add one of the best defensive Center's in the league to a team that has struggled holding leads in the third period, it's an absolute gaurantee that the blown leads disappear.

If the leafs won even half of the games they lost a third period lead in, they would be 6 points up on Montreal with games in hand. Boyle was the best pick up imaginable for the leafs

Oh boy...

 

[Dogewow]

Nobody will argue that


You add one of the best defensive Center's in the league to a team that has struggled holding leads in the third period, it's an absolute gaurantee that the blown leads disappear.

If the leafs won even half of the games they lost a third period lead in, they would be 6 points up on Montreal with games in hand. Boyle was the best pick up imaginable for the leafs

Guarantee, you say?

 

[Nizdizzle]

Guarantee, you say?

I believe the word he used was "gaurantee".

 

[Dogewow]

I believe the word he used was "gaurantee".

Oh thanks.

 

[nuck]

While I don't disagree it addressed some big weaknesses for the Leafs, I think you need to temper your expectations. The Leafs collapses can't be entirely negated by the addition of a single player.

All he has to do is prevent the collapse in one game and that might be the difference between in or out of the playoffs. Really a modest goal. Gauthier and Smith have 7 points in 56 games. Boyle has 22 in 54 games which is another upgrade that might conservatively steal them a point or two.

 

[fahad203]

I was a bit surprised by this deal, since the obvious need is to upgrade a more pressing need a top 4 D man for the Leafs.

Leafs have now traded 3 draft picks for Anderson and Boyle. Team seems to be changing philosophies from acquiring picks to dealing them again for more immediate help.

Boyle is a useful player who will be a UFA so the price is the going rate for a rental was pricey if he does not sign with the Leafs. Deal will help Leafs in the short term, while Yzerman who is usually very sharp, may be signaling he is putting a sell button on the season. Got a valuable top 60 pick in abeit in a weaker draft before he lost it for nothing.

Leafs have plenty of prospects and prospects. Anderson is a no-brainer. He's the only reason why we are in the playoff spot. He's also only 27

How many picks do the Leafs need? they had 2nd rounders last year, 2 the the year before and 2 this year

We stockpiled so many prospects they are still playing with their Euro teams and OHL teams although they are overaged. There are no rooms for them in AHL

7 of them are playing with the big clubs....

Some people

 

[Volica]

At some point you do need some reliable veterans in your lineup. Not sure if they pulled the trigger on this too early though.

Picks are treated like gold on HF. If you give yourself a chance to make the playoffs for a second round pick... you do that every day of the week.

 

[Liferleafer]

No I know about stupid management and have worn the badge for a good many years now. I also know that Leafs fans love when management gets guys like Big Sexy for a PO race. This is Big Sexy 2017 edition, could have been a flaming piece of you know what. We have 3 good Dmen and 1 of them can't defend for his life right now. So 2D and we get a 4C while we have a big 4C showing a lot of promise.

Brendan Smith just returned more than what we paid for Boyle...is that the D upgrade you would like?

 

[Bedards Dad]

At some point you do need some reliable veterans in your lineup. Not sure if they pulled the trigger on this too early though.

Picks are treated like gold on HF. If you give yourself a chance to make the playoffs for a second round pick... you do that every day of the week.

Another way of looking at it, would the player who is a 2nd round pick be enough to put you in the playoffs? We know the answer today is no, it is still a pick, but once that player is chosen and if by a slight chance he makes the NHL, will there be enough impact to vault them into the playoffs? I'd think the odds of that are pretty darn low.

 

[The Management]

If it keeps Ben Smith out of the lineup, it's totally worth it.

Kidding-not-kidding aside, I like this move.

For what is essentially a second round pick in a weaker draft, we pick up a versatile player who instantly makes our bottom six better and brings some experience to the table. It sends a positive message to the kids that we want them playing playoff hockey in the Spring. And if they do make the post-season, all the better for their development going forward. You don't need to play a ton of team sports to know how caustic a losing atmosphere can become.

 

[LastOne2100]

This has me concerned that the Leafs' over-performing rookies have shifted management from responsible rebuild to band-aid solutions to barely scrape into the playoffs. Hopefully this isn't the case.

 

[Liferleafer]

This has me concerned that the Leafs' over-performing rookies have shifted management from responsible rebuild to band-aid solutions to barely scrape into the playoffs. Hopefully this isn't the case.

What's more valuable....playoff experience for our young players, or the 14th overall pick instead of 15th? If this trade gets us a playoff spot, i make it all day every day.