TomasHertlsRooster
Don’t say eye test when you mean points
We are looking at a league where 4 teams have won the last 8 Stanley Cups; one of them being a fairly large fluke. (Boston Bruins, the team that has not won a Stanley Cup since.) One of those 4 teams is only 3 wins away from another Stanley Cup, which would be their third in that same time frame. These teams are Chicago, winning in 2010, 2013, and 2015, Pittsburgh, winning in 2009, 2016, and possibly 2017, and the Los Angeles Kings, winning in 2012 and 2014.
NHL fans LOVE to make fun of basketball; specifically the lack of parity within the sport. With one of Golden State or Cleveland guaranteed to win the 2017 championship, we can confirm that only 5 teams have won the last 9 NBA championships. If Nashville wins this series, we will be able to say the exact same for the NHL; 5 teams have won the last 9 Stanley Cups. If Pittsburgh wins, it means that we will have seen less different champions than the NBA has since 2009. That is a very large problem. The NHL's parity in championship winners, between 2009-2017, is less than or equal to that of the NBA.
For those who don't wish to read a long, detailed post, there will be cliff notes at the bottom.
Let's be clear about one thing here; Boston is an absolute fluke. In no way should they be involved in a discussion regarding sustainable models of Stanley Cup success. They received a legendary, historic Conn Smythe performance from a 37 year old journeyman goaltender who was relegated to backup the year before. No team can ever expect, or plan to have that, and the odds of that happening are ridiculously low. There is a reason that, unlike the other 3 teams that won championships in that time frame, Boston has not repeated as Stanley Cup winners. They made the finals once and got wrecked by one of the big 3 tankers.
This brings me to my next point; Nashville. The other team in the Stanley Cup Finals. They do not fit the model of back to back top-5 picks. However, they fit a model very, very similar to the Boston Bruins. They drafted in the top-5 once recently, and traded that player for another top-5 pick who has helped them quite a bit. However, more importantly, they have received a historic Conn Smythe performance from a 34 year old goaltender that was pretty bad the year before, and hasn't been great for quite a few years. Suddenly, he begins playing like a Conn Smythe goaltender? Not sustainable, and what did we see tonight? Regression to the mean when he gave up 4 goals on the first 9 shots of the game.
So, let's take a look at Los Angeles, Chicago, and Pittsburgh. It's no secret that these teams have suffered from prolonged periods of mediocrity in the 2000s. It's also no secret that these teams have won Stanley Cups on the backs of players that they drafted in the top-3 of NHL drafts.
Chicago, with the most Cups, is very simple. They have Jonathan Toews, who they drafted 3rd overall in 2006. He was their captain for every single Stanley Cup victory, and has won a Conn Smythe trophy. Of course, they also have Patrick Kane, who they drafted 1st overall in 2007. Both of these players made key contributions to each of their Stanley Cup victories, with the exception of Toews' miserable 2013 playoffs. Let's not forget that they drafted Cam Barker in the top-5 in 2004, and he helped them acquire Nick Led, who was a key contributor to their 2013 Stanley Cup.
This is the beginning of a trend: Back to back top-5 picks. In this case, a 3rd overall pick followed by a 1st overall pick.
Now let's look at Pittsburgh. They have Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Marc-Andre Fleury. Back to back to back top-2 picks. Crosby and Malkin won the 2 Conn Smythes they received in their 2 Stanley Cup victories, and even if Crosby didn't deserve it last year, he certainly was a key contributor in their run, as was Malkin. Marc-Andre Fleury did ride the pine last year, but he was their #1G for half of the playoffs this year, and stole the 2nd round, and he was also their #1G in 2009 and in 2008 when they made the SCF. Also, one may forget Jordan Staal, who they traded very long ago; one shouldn't. Jordan Staal was a 2nd overall pick in 2006; meaning they had a 1st overall pick, followed by a 2nd overall pick, a 1st overall pick, followed by a 2nd overall pick! Back to back to back to back top-2 draft picks. Jordan Staal was a key contributor in their 2008 run, as well as their 2009 victory. His trade got them pieces that helped them win in 2016. (Bonino, Dumolin)
Back to back top-5 picks. In this case, a 1st overall pick, followed by a 2nd overall pick, followed by a 1st overall pick, followed by a 2nd overall pick.
Now let's take a look at Los Angeles. This team has missed the playoffs twice in the last 3 years, and one may argue they aren't quite as dominant over this time frame as the other two teams. However, they certainly count as one of the 3 teams that has won multiple Stanley Cups over this time frame. Their #1 defenseman over their two Stanley Cup victories? Drew Doughty, 2008 2nd overall pick. Of course, they also drafted in the top-5 in 2007, selecting Thomas Hickey 4th overall . They drafted in the top-5 yet again in 2009, netting Brayden Schenn. While Schenn was not on either of their Stanley Cup rosters, he was the most valuable piece of the Mike Richards trade. Mike Richards was certainly a key contributor in their 2012 Stanley Cup and certainly helped in 2014 as well, even if he had fallen off quite a bit by that point.
Of course, plenty of people will specifically nitpick the fact that Thomas Hickey was even mentioned. Thomas Hickey never played a single game for the Los Angeles Kings, and because he was waived, he did not contribute to either Stanley Cup victory for the Kings. And they would be absolutely correct. However, there is a reason he is still relevant. Hickey was one chance that Los Angeles had to draft in the top-5, and they failed. They were given the chance to do so again in both of the next 2 seasons, and they acquired pieces that helped them win Stanley Cups. They easily could have selected Karl Alzner (5), Sam Gagner (6), Jakub Voracek (7), Logan Couture (9), Ryan McDonagh (12), or Kevin Shattenkirk (14). Of the 10 players drafted after Hickey, 4 became all stars and 8 became permanent NHLers. What was Thomas Hickey? Thomas Hickey was a chance at a top-5 pick. They failed. Of course, they had another chance at a top-5 pick, which they nailed in Doughty, and then yet another chance at a top-5 pick, in which they made a solid choice in Brayden Schenn, who they subsequently traded for their cup #2C.
So, what's the common trend? Back to back top-5 picks. In this case, a 4th overall pick, followed by a 2nd overall pick, followed by a 5th overall pick.
It is common knowledge that history repeats itself. It is also common knowledge that the new contenders in the NHL are going to be the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Edmonton Oilers; it is also common knowledge that besides the 3 teams mentioned in this thread, the Tampa Bay Lightning have the best chance at a Stanley Cup. Tampa Bay has been the most successful team since 2009 besides the 4 Cup winners, and they were voted at the start of this regular season to be this year's cup favorite. They did miss the playoffs this year, but a lot of that is due to their #1 center playing only 17 games due to an injury. Let's take a look at these 3 teams, shall we?
Toronto just had a fantastic season. Two of their key performers were Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews. Marner was drafted 4th overall in 2015. In the subsequent 2016 draft, Auston Matthews was drafted 1st overall. So, that would mean they are, wait for it...back to back top-5 picks. Interesting. I don't think there is any doubt in anybody's mind that if Toronto wins a Stanley Cup, they will be receiving key contributions from Marner and Matthews. Back to back top-5 picks; in this case, a 4th overall followed by a 1st overall.
Edmonton just had a fantastic season as well. They eliminated my San Jose Sharks.
Their 2 leading scorers in the regular season were Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid. Draisaitl was drafted 3rd overall in 2014 and McDavid was drafted 1st overall in 2015. Back to back top-5 picks; in this case, a 3rd overall followed by a 1st overall. Although 2016 4th overall pick Jesse Puljujarvi was sent to the AHL this year, he certainly could be a key contributor in the coming years. Keep in mind that Edmonton was part of the 2016 draft lottery, and would have picked Patrik Laine if there was no lottery. In Edmonton's specific case, it's important to remember that they also had 3 straight 1st overalls from 2010 to 2012. While all 3 picks have been extreme disappointments, they have still got Adam Larsson and RNH from those picks. Back to back top-5 picks; in this case, a 3rd overall, followed by a 1st overall, followed by a 4th overall.
Along with back to back top-5 picks; in this case, 3 straight 1st overalls.
Tampa Bay is a very simple case. Steven Stamkos 1st overall in 2008 followed by Victor Hedman in 2009. Their #1C and #1D.
So, can we all agree that this lack of parity is an issue, to go along with the fact that, to become a dominant team, you need to have multiple back to back seasons of being a bottom 5 team to become one of the dominant teams. This is definitely a problem, right?
The simple solution is right in front of us. A team that has drafted in the top-5 last year is not eligible to draft in the top-5 the next season.
Cliff Notes
-5 teams have won the last 8 NBA championships, but only 4 teams have won the last 8 NHL championships. Since we are guaranteed a repeat champion in this year's NBA finals, it is possible that if Nashville wins the Stanley Cup, the NHL can tie the NBA in terms of parity if and only if Nashville wins. LMFAO.
-Boston was largely a fluke winning in 2011; they received a historic Conn Smythe performance from a 37 year old journeyman goaltender who was their backup the year before. This is in no way sustainable and in no way a model that can be followed by a future Stanley Cup champion.
-Chicago drafted Jonathan Toews 3rd in 2006 and Patrick Kane 1st in 2007.
-Los Angeles drafted Thomas Hickey 4th in 2007, Drew Doughty 2nd in 2008, and Brayden Schenn 5th in 2009.
-Pittsburgh drafted Marc-Andre Fleury 1st in 2003, Evgeni Malkin 2nd in 2004, Sidney Crosby 1st in 2005, and Jordan Staal 2nd in 2006.
-7 of the last 8 Stanley Cup winners have had back to back top-5 picks, and the one team that didn't was a fluke.
-Of the two teams that look to have the brightest future (Edmonton and Toronto), they both have back to back top-5 picks.
-The team that has been the most successful in that time frame without winning a Stanley Cup is the same team that looks to have the brightest future besides Edmonton and Toronto, and they are built around back to back top-5 picks. (Stamkos then Hedman)
-The simple solution is right in front of us. A team that has drafted in the top-5 last year is not eligible to draft in the top-3 the next season.
Fans complain incessantly about the Edmonton Oilers winning 3 straight 1st round picks. Had this rule been in place, they would not have been able to draft RNH after drafting Hall, and they would not have been able to draft McDavid after drafting Draisaitl. The Kings would not have been able to draft Drew Doughty after drafting Thomas Hickey. The Blackhawks would not have been able to draft Patrick Kane after drafting Jonathan Toews. The Pittsburgh Penguins would not have been able to draft Evgeni Malkin after drafting Marc-Andre Fleury, and they would not have been able to draft Jordan Staal after drafting Sidney Crosby. The Toronto Maple Leafs would not have been able to draft Auston Matthews a year after drafting Mitch Marner.
If one random casual hockey fan on HFBoards can catch onto this, NHL GMs will catch on as well. And over time, we will see more serious tanks. The lack of parity will extend to the regular season and we will see more and more teams like the 2014-2015 Buffalo Sabres who intentionally tank and do absolutely awful. That's not good for the game.
NHL fans LOVE to make fun of basketball; specifically the lack of parity within the sport. With one of Golden State or Cleveland guaranteed to win the 2017 championship, we can confirm that only 5 teams have won the last 9 NBA championships. If Nashville wins this series, we will be able to say the exact same for the NHL; 5 teams have won the last 9 Stanley Cups. If Pittsburgh wins, it means that we will have seen less different champions than the NBA has since 2009. That is a very large problem. The NHL's parity in championship winners, between 2009-2017, is less than or equal to that of the NBA.
For those who don't wish to read a long, detailed post, there will be cliff notes at the bottom.
Let's be clear about one thing here; Boston is an absolute fluke. In no way should they be involved in a discussion regarding sustainable models of Stanley Cup success. They received a legendary, historic Conn Smythe performance from a 37 year old journeyman goaltender who was relegated to backup the year before. No team can ever expect, or plan to have that, and the odds of that happening are ridiculously low. There is a reason that, unlike the other 3 teams that won championships in that time frame, Boston has not repeated as Stanley Cup winners. They made the finals once and got wrecked by one of the big 3 tankers.
This brings me to my next point; Nashville. The other team in the Stanley Cup Finals. They do not fit the model of back to back top-5 picks. However, they fit a model very, very similar to the Boston Bruins. They drafted in the top-5 once recently, and traded that player for another top-5 pick who has helped them quite a bit. However, more importantly, they have received a historic Conn Smythe performance from a 34 year old goaltender that was pretty bad the year before, and hasn't been great for quite a few years. Suddenly, he begins playing like a Conn Smythe goaltender? Not sustainable, and what did we see tonight? Regression to the mean when he gave up 4 goals on the first 9 shots of the game.
So, let's take a look at Los Angeles, Chicago, and Pittsburgh. It's no secret that these teams have suffered from prolonged periods of mediocrity in the 2000s. It's also no secret that these teams have won Stanley Cups on the backs of players that they drafted in the top-3 of NHL drafts.
Chicago, with the most Cups, is very simple. They have Jonathan Toews, who they drafted 3rd overall in 2006. He was their captain for every single Stanley Cup victory, and has won a Conn Smythe trophy. Of course, they also have Patrick Kane, who they drafted 1st overall in 2007. Both of these players made key contributions to each of their Stanley Cup victories, with the exception of Toews' miserable 2013 playoffs. Let's not forget that they drafted Cam Barker in the top-5 in 2004, and he helped them acquire Nick Led, who was a key contributor to their 2013 Stanley Cup.
This is the beginning of a trend: Back to back top-5 picks. In this case, a 3rd overall pick followed by a 1st overall pick.
Now let's look at Pittsburgh. They have Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Marc-Andre Fleury. Back to back to back top-2 picks. Crosby and Malkin won the 2 Conn Smythes they received in their 2 Stanley Cup victories, and even if Crosby didn't deserve it last year, he certainly was a key contributor in their run, as was Malkin. Marc-Andre Fleury did ride the pine last year, but he was their #1G for half of the playoffs this year, and stole the 2nd round, and he was also their #1G in 2009 and in 2008 when they made the SCF. Also, one may forget Jordan Staal, who they traded very long ago; one shouldn't. Jordan Staal was a 2nd overall pick in 2006; meaning they had a 1st overall pick, followed by a 2nd overall pick, a 1st overall pick, followed by a 2nd overall pick! Back to back to back to back top-2 draft picks. Jordan Staal was a key contributor in their 2008 run, as well as their 2009 victory. His trade got them pieces that helped them win in 2016. (Bonino, Dumolin)
Back to back top-5 picks. In this case, a 1st overall pick, followed by a 2nd overall pick, followed by a 1st overall pick, followed by a 2nd overall pick.
Now let's take a look at Los Angeles. This team has missed the playoffs twice in the last 3 years, and one may argue they aren't quite as dominant over this time frame as the other two teams. However, they certainly count as one of the 3 teams that has won multiple Stanley Cups over this time frame. Their #1 defenseman over their two Stanley Cup victories? Drew Doughty, 2008 2nd overall pick. Of course, they also drafted in the top-5 in 2007, selecting Thomas Hickey 4th overall . They drafted in the top-5 yet again in 2009, netting Brayden Schenn. While Schenn was not on either of their Stanley Cup rosters, he was the most valuable piece of the Mike Richards trade. Mike Richards was certainly a key contributor in their 2012 Stanley Cup and certainly helped in 2014 as well, even if he had fallen off quite a bit by that point.
Of course, plenty of people will specifically nitpick the fact that Thomas Hickey was even mentioned. Thomas Hickey never played a single game for the Los Angeles Kings, and because he was waived, he did not contribute to either Stanley Cup victory for the Kings. And they would be absolutely correct. However, there is a reason he is still relevant. Hickey was one chance that Los Angeles had to draft in the top-5, and they failed. They were given the chance to do so again in both of the next 2 seasons, and they acquired pieces that helped them win Stanley Cups. They easily could have selected Karl Alzner (5), Sam Gagner (6), Jakub Voracek (7), Logan Couture (9), Ryan McDonagh (12), or Kevin Shattenkirk (14). Of the 10 players drafted after Hickey, 4 became all stars and 8 became permanent NHLers. What was Thomas Hickey? Thomas Hickey was a chance at a top-5 pick. They failed. Of course, they had another chance at a top-5 pick, which they nailed in Doughty, and then yet another chance at a top-5 pick, in which they made a solid choice in Brayden Schenn, who they subsequently traded for their cup #2C.
So, what's the common trend? Back to back top-5 picks. In this case, a 4th overall pick, followed by a 2nd overall pick, followed by a 5th overall pick.
It is common knowledge that history repeats itself. It is also common knowledge that the new contenders in the NHL are going to be the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Edmonton Oilers; it is also common knowledge that besides the 3 teams mentioned in this thread, the Tampa Bay Lightning have the best chance at a Stanley Cup. Tampa Bay has been the most successful team since 2009 besides the 4 Cup winners, and they were voted at the start of this regular season to be this year's cup favorite. They did miss the playoffs this year, but a lot of that is due to their #1 center playing only 17 games due to an injury. Let's take a look at these 3 teams, shall we?
Toronto just had a fantastic season. Two of their key performers were Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews. Marner was drafted 4th overall in 2015. In the subsequent 2016 draft, Auston Matthews was drafted 1st overall. So, that would mean they are, wait for it...back to back top-5 picks. Interesting. I don't think there is any doubt in anybody's mind that if Toronto wins a Stanley Cup, they will be receiving key contributions from Marner and Matthews. Back to back top-5 picks; in this case, a 4th overall followed by a 1st overall.
Edmonton just had a fantastic season as well. They eliminated my San Jose Sharks.
Their 2 leading scorers in the regular season were Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid. Draisaitl was drafted 3rd overall in 2014 and McDavid was drafted 1st overall in 2015. Back to back top-5 picks; in this case, a 3rd overall followed by a 1st overall. Although 2016 4th overall pick Jesse Puljujarvi was sent to the AHL this year, he certainly could be a key contributor in the coming years. Keep in mind that Edmonton was part of the 2016 draft lottery, and would have picked Patrik Laine if there was no lottery. In Edmonton's specific case, it's important to remember that they also had 3 straight 1st overalls from 2010 to 2012. While all 3 picks have been extreme disappointments, they have still got Adam Larsson and RNH from those picks. Back to back top-5 picks; in this case, a 3rd overall, followed by a 1st overall, followed by a 4th overall. Along with back to back top-5 picks; in this case, 3 straight 1st overalls.
Tampa Bay is a very simple case. Steven Stamkos 1st overall in 2008 followed by Victor Hedman in 2009. Their #1C and #1D.
So, can we all agree that this lack of parity is an issue, to go along with the fact that, to become a dominant team, you need to have multiple back to back seasons of being a bottom 5 team to become one of the dominant teams. This is definitely a problem, right?
The simple solution is right in front of us. A team that has drafted in the top-5 last year is not eligible to draft in the top-5 the next season.
Cliff Notes
-5 teams have won the last 8 NBA championships, but only 4 teams have won the last 8 NHL championships. Since we are guaranteed a repeat champion in this year's NBA finals, it is possible that if Nashville wins the Stanley Cup, the NHL can tie the NBA in terms of parity if and only if Nashville wins. LMFAO.
-Boston was largely a fluke winning in 2011; they received a historic Conn Smythe performance from a 37 year old journeyman goaltender who was their backup the year before. This is in no way sustainable and in no way a model that can be followed by a future Stanley Cup champion.
-Chicago drafted Jonathan Toews 3rd in 2006 and Patrick Kane 1st in 2007.
-Los Angeles drafted Thomas Hickey 4th in 2007, Drew Doughty 2nd in 2008, and Brayden Schenn 5th in 2009.
-Pittsburgh drafted Marc-Andre Fleury 1st in 2003, Evgeni Malkin 2nd in 2004, Sidney Crosby 1st in 2005, and Jordan Staal 2nd in 2006.
-7 of the last 8 Stanley Cup winners have had back to back top-5 picks, and the one team that didn't was a fluke.
-Of the two teams that look to have the brightest future (Edmonton and Toronto), they both have back to back top-5 picks.
-The team that has been the most successful in that time frame without winning a Stanley Cup is the same team that looks to have the brightest future besides Edmonton and Toronto, and they are built around back to back top-5 picks. (Stamkos then Hedman)
-The simple solution is right in front of us. A team that has drafted in the top-5 last year is not eligible to draft in the top-3 the next season.
Fans complain incessantly about the Edmonton Oilers winning 3 straight 1st round picks. Had this rule been in place, they would not have been able to draft RNH after drafting Hall, and they would not have been able to draft McDavid after drafting Draisaitl. The Kings would not have been able to draft Drew Doughty after drafting Thomas Hickey. The Blackhawks would not have been able to draft Patrick Kane after drafting Jonathan Toews. The Pittsburgh Penguins would not have been able to draft Evgeni Malkin after drafting Marc-Andre Fleury, and they would not have been able to draft Jordan Staal after drafting Sidney Crosby. The Toronto Maple Leafs would not have been able to draft Auston Matthews a year after drafting Mitch Marner.
If one random casual hockey fan on HFBoards can catch onto this, NHL GMs will catch on as well. And over time, we will see more serious tanks. The lack of parity will extend to the regular season and we will see more and more teams like the 2014-2015 Buffalo Sabres who intentionally tank and do absolutely awful. That's not good for the game.
