The Macho King
Back* to Back** World Champion
- Jun 22, 2011
- 48,787
- 29,321
Guys and gals - there's a paper that I don't want to write now, so instead I want to look at the team's performance over the past season using these newfangled analystics, and share the findings with you. First, let's look at the team performance.
CorsiFor% 53% (good for 5th in the league)
CorsiClose: 53.8% (tied for 4th)
FenwickFor%: 53.1% (3rd in the league)
FenwickClose: 53.7% (4th in the league)
Those are some raw ones - looks pretty good so far. Let's look at a few others that reflect possession.
Offensive Zone Starts: 54.4% (fourth)
OZSClose: 55.7% (2nd)
PDO (shooting percentage plus save percentage at ES): 101.0 (Tied for sixth)
PDO Close: 99.9 (Tied for 19th)
Some good things from this. Teamwide, PDO can regress a bit (elite/awful goaltenders and elite/awful goalscorers will have an effect, so it won't always regress to 100 as some think, but it being closer to 100 does speak well to sustainability). The Close value confuses me a bit... it speaks to a non-clutchness, but it may be a couple of factors - mainly when we're behind we throw a ton of pucks at the net, which could adversely affect shot percentage. It's possible it could also reflect negatively on our goaltenders/D too.
ShotPrecentage: 9.1% (1st in the league) A lot of this probably comes from all the lines looking for the "perfect shot", but also the fact that we're just a flat out skilled team. It's high, but in line with what the highest teams have been in other seasons, so it's not absurdly high.
Scoring Chance Percentage: 53.8% (2nd in the league)
This is the most interesting stat to me. It tries to control for shot quality in a way that Corsi and Fenwick don't. It's a new stat - and it's unclear how accurate it's calculated at the moment (there may be an arena bias or something else), but I think this supports what we see day in day out - we get a lot of scoring chances.
SCF/60: 29.5 (3rd in the league)
SCA/60: 25.3 (T-12th)
High event team, but the lower Scoring Chances Against/60 is something we need to work on.
Individual players
Stralman was our possession monster on D. 56.24 CorsiFor%, with SCF of 58.44% (shockingly, our second best D for that was Slater Koekkoek). He started 54.33% of his shifts in the offensive zone - but keep in mind that's on a team that starts over 55% in the Ozone. He's been a monster.
Forwards, of course TKO was our monsters. They generally get favorable zone starts (Kucherov at 59, Palat at 56, and Johnson at 55). Palat and Kucherov each have around 56% CorsiFor, with Johnson a slight bit behind at 54.9.
Their real strength? Scoring Chances. Palat leads the way with 59.15% SCF (versus 51.46 off), with Kucherov at 58.07 and Johnson at 56.73% (52 and 52.77 off respectively). Compare to Stamkos, who had a 53% on, and 54.4 off, or Callahan who had 53.5 on and 53.8 off. These guys carried the play.
Also, re: Jason Garrison. He's the other guy who has been a rock all year for us on the back end. His SCF% is 52.37, and his CorsiFor is 52.59. Very good numbers, but around middle of the road for the team. His zone start is 52% offensive, so he's used a bit more defensively than Stralman, although I don't know if the numbers show much of a preference or if it's more of a result of playing less with Hedman versus other guys.
This is far from an exhaustive collection/analysis, but rather just a few points on the subject to discuss. Most of it supports the eye test, although I think Garrison might get the short end of the stick relative to his importance.
CorsiFor% 53% (good for 5th in the league)
CorsiClose: 53.8% (tied for 4th)
FenwickFor%: 53.1% (3rd in the league)
FenwickClose: 53.7% (4th in the league)
Those are some raw ones - looks pretty good so far. Let's look at a few others that reflect possession.
Offensive Zone Starts: 54.4% (fourth)
OZSClose: 55.7% (2nd)
PDO (shooting percentage plus save percentage at ES): 101.0 (Tied for sixth)
PDO Close: 99.9 (Tied for 19th)
Some good things from this. Teamwide, PDO can regress a bit (elite/awful goaltenders and elite/awful goalscorers will have an effect, so it won't always regress to 100 as some think, but it being closer to 100 does speak well to sustainability). The Close value confuses me a bit... it speaks to a non-clutchness, but it may be a couple of factors - mainly when we're behind we throw a ton of pucks at the net, which could adversely affect shot percentage. It's possible it could also reflect negatively on our goaltenders/D too.
ShotPrecentage: 9.1% (1st in the league) A lot of this probably comes from all the lines looking for the "perfect shot", but also the fact that we're just a flat out skilled team. It's high, but in line with what the highest teams have been in other seasons, so it's not absurdly high.
Scoring Chance Percentage: 53.8% (2nd in the league)
This is the most interesting stat to me. It tries to control for shot quality in a way that Corsi and Fenwick don't. It's a new stat - and it's unclear how accurate it's calculated at the moment (there may be an arena bias or something else), but I think this supports what we see day in day out - we get a lot of scoring chances.
SCF/60: 29.5 (3rd in the league)
SCA/60: 25.3 (T-12th)
High event team, but the lower Scoring Chances Against/60 is something we need to work on.
Individual players
Stralman was our possession monster on D. 56.24 CorsiFor%, with SCF of 58.44% (shockingly, our second best D for that was Slater Koekkoek). He started 54.33% of his shifts in the offensive zone - but keep in mind that's on a team that starts over 55% in the Ozone. He's been a monster.
Forwards, of course TKO was our monsters. They generally get favorable zone starts (Kucherov at 59, Palat at 56, and Johnson at 55). Palat and Kucherov each have around 56% CorsiFor, with Johnson a slight bit behind at 54.9.
Their real strength? Scoring Chances. Palat leads the way with 59.15% SCF (versus 51.46 off), with Kucherov at 58.07 and Johnson at 56.73% (52 and 52.77 off respectively). Compare to Stamkos, who had a 53% on, and 54.4 off, or Callahan who had 53.5 on and 53.8 off. These guys carried the play.
Also, re: Jason Garrison. He's the other guy who has been a rock all year for us on the back end. His SCF% is 52.37, and his CorsiFor is 52.59. Very good numbers, but around middle of the road for the team. His zone start is 52% offensive, so he's used a bit more defensively than Stralman, although I don't know if the numbers show much of a preference or if it's more of a result of playing less with Hedman versus other guys.
This is far from an exhaustive collection/analysis, but rather just a few points on the subject to discuss. Most of it supports the eye test, although I think Garrison might get the short end of the stick relative to his importance.
