Prospect Info: Tampa Bay Lightning prospect rankings 2017- #10

[Steazy Doo]

1) Mikhail Sergachev - 96%
2) Cal Foote - 33%
3) Brett Howden - 37%
4) Anthony Cirelli - 26%
5) Taylor Raddysh - 32%
6) Jake Dotchin - 27%
7) Adam Erne - 37%
8) Slater Koekkoek - 38%
9) Mathieu Joseph - 36%

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[Rschmitz]

Cernak

 

[CupsOverCash]

Close between Cernak and Stephens. I chose Stephens because he sounds like the kind of player that fits our system like a glove. Fast 2 way player.

 

[TampaJay]

Close between Cernak and Stephens. I chose Stephens because he sounds like the kind of player that fits our system like a glove. Fast 2 way player.

Yeh, of the remaining, those two look like the best bets to make the NHL at least as 3rd pair/bottom 6. I had to go with ceiling instead of best bet on this one. My wild card is Yan. Of that list, he is the best sniper, most skilled offensive forward. If he can round out his game in the AHL (big if) he has top six potential. It looks like there are some more wild cards in this last draft like the two Russians. Too early to tell. I don’t know what Murray saw in Volkov in that series in Canada, but I wouldn’t bet against it. I’ll be most curious about Volkov and Yan in Syracuse this year. The others like Joseph, Cirelli, Stephens, and Cernak seem more predictable. I just decided to go with the bigger long shot with the bigger payoff.

 

[TeslaCoilFan]

Went back to Cernak, though I'm still thinking about Hajek and Lipanov. I know Lipanov might be farther away from the NHL than the others, but I think he's got some serious potential.

 

[JoVel]

Hajek again for me.

 

[Rschmitz]

Went back to Cernak, though I'm still thinking about Hajek and Lipanov. I know Lipanov might be farther away from the NHL than the others, but I think he's got some serious potential.

His ceiling might be the highest amongst those left for sure. I think Cernak is the perfect RHD for our system though, very high on him and I would be surprised if he isn't a top 4 D at the very least if he isn't dealt. Reminds me a ton of Brent Seabrook. He's Dotchin with better skating and better defensive awareness.

 

[MattM92]

His ceiling might be the highest amongst those left for sure. I think Cernak is the perfect RHD for our system though, very high on him and I would be surprised if he isn't a top 4 D at the very least if he isn't dealt. Reminds me a ton of Brent Seabrook. He's Dotchin with better skating and better defensive awareness.

Well that's great. With how highly many Lightning fans rate Dotchin, looks like we have an elite shut down defenseman with Norris potential in Cernak.

 

[RegularSznAllStars]

Well that's great. With how highly many Lightning fans rate Dotchin, looks like we have an elite shut down defenseman with Norris potential in Cernak.

I know you are joking, but Cernak impressed the hell out of me at developmental camp. He is a great skater, big, smooth hands. He looked better than Sergachev most of the time I was there.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

His ceiling might be the highest amongst those left for sure. I think Cernak is the perfect RHD for our system though, very high on him and I would be surprised if he isn't a top 4 D at the very least if he isn't dealt. Reminds me a ton of Brent Seabrook. He's Dotchin with better skating and better defensive awareness.

I don't think he has the defensive ability of Dotchin. However he does look like a promising prospect.

Well that's great. With how highly many Lightning fans rate Dotchin, looks like we have an elite shut down defenseman with Norris potential in Cernak.

oh

 

[Rschmitz]

Well that's great. With how highly many Lightning fans rate Dotchin, looks like we have an elite shut down defenseman with Norris potential in Cernak.

Haha. I'm a huge Dotchin fan too but I'm not delusional. I love his game, on the third pairing

 

[Rschmitz]

I don't think he has the defensive ability of Dotchin. However he does look like a promising prospect

Cernak is 4 years younger and already better than Dotchin. His agility is better, his hockey sense is better, he doesn't get beat 1 on 1 and he can handle assignments against speedy forwards anywhere on the ice unlike Dotchin.

He looks like the perfect compliment to Sergachev, who plays a much more aggressive game and he can protect Misha when he gets trapped in the zone. Keep an eye on this pairing, it will be one of the toughest to play against in a few years.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Anyway my vote is Libor by a hair over Erik.

 

[Steazy Doo]

Huge Cernak fan, had Stephens been voted in already he'd be my vote.

 

[Werewolf]

Man Stephens is criminally underrated here. Stephens is better than Dotchin, Joseph, and Erne. Koekkoek, Hajek, Cernak, and Masin all have higher upside and ceiling than Dotchin.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Stephens is overrated not underrated lol

most overrated player in our pool AINEC

 

[HoseEmDown]

Stephens is overrated not underrated lol

most overrated player in our pool AINEC

How can that be when you say Dotchin has #1 potential? It don't get more overrated than that.

 

[JoVel]

Man Stephens is criminally underrated here. Stephens is better than Dotchin, Joseph, and Erne. Koekkoek, Hajek, Cernak, and Masin all have higher upside and ceiling than Dotchin.

Dotchin is high on the list because of his impressive stint in the NHL. If he wouldn't have played in the NHL, he probably wouldn't crack top 20. Those guys may have higher upside, but Dotchin has proved himself in the NHL which is something that has to be taken into account.

 

[TeslaCoilFan]

The others like Joseph, Cirelli, Stephens, and Cernak seem more predictable. I just decided to go with the bigger long shot with the bigger payoff.

I understand that thinking. That's why I have Lipanov so high in my personal rankings. Might be a long shot and farther from the NHL than the others, but I definitely think that he might just have a really high ceiling. I also think Volkov has lots of potential too.

Cernak is 4 years younger and already better than Dotchin. His agility is better, his hockey sense is better, he doesn't get beat 1 on 1 and he can handle assignments against speedy forwards anywhere on the ice unlike Dotchin.

He looks like the perfect compliment to Sergachev, who plays a much more aggressive game and he can protect Misha when he gets trapped in the zone. Keep an eye on this pairing, it will be one of the toughest to play against in a few years.

I agree. Much better skater and better defensively already than Dotchin. Hadn't thought about future pairings, but you've got a point about him being a possible great partner for Sergachev down the road. An aggressive offensive d-man and a solid, great skating defenseman with good hockey sense. Hmm, sounds a bit like they might end up being a baby Bolt version of Hedman/Strålman eventually. lol Although both would probably be paired with vets until they get some experience. Two rookies on a pairing during away games just invites opposing teams to snack on 'em.

I know Dotchin did well in his 35 games in the NHL, but he needs to show that he can perform at that level without being paired with Heddy. Some people here who saw more of him during the Calder Cup playoffs were not impressed with his performance there. I still think his true top ranking is as a solid 3rd pair Dman. Which is not a bad thing. Wouldn't it be nice to have 3 actual GOOD pairings? I see a higher ultimate potential in Cernak and Hajek. But, as always, that's just mho.

Whatever happens, it definitely looks like we have some really good prospects in the pipeline. When we disagree about rankings because we have so many good kids to pick from, we have a very good development program.

 

[Rschmitz]

Man Stephens is criminally underrated here. Stephens is better than Dotchin, Joseph, and Erne. Koekkoek, Hajek, Cernak, and Masin all have higher upside and ceiling than Dotchin.

He would be my next vote.

 

[Five Alarm Fire]

Dotchin is high on the list because of his impressive stint in the NHL. If he wouldn't have played in the NHL, he probably wouldn't crack top 20. Those guys may have higher upside, but Dotchin has proved himself in the NHL which is something that has to be taken into account.

To play devil's advocate, Keith Aulie had a great 40 game stint as a top pairing defenseman next to Dion Phaneuf and was heralded as such. We all know where he ended up. I think everyone should pause on the Dotchin hype until we have more of a sample size. He was on nobody's radar until this past season.

 

[Sky04]

I understand that thinking. That's why I have Lipanov so high in my personal rankings. Might be a long shot and farther from the NHL than the others, but I definitely think that he might just have a really high ceiling. I also think Volkov has lots of potential too.



I agree. Much better skater and better defensively already than Dotchin. Hadn't thought about future pairings, but you've got a point about him being a possible great partner for Sergachev down the road. An aggressive offensive d-man and a solid, great skating defenseman with good hockey sense. Hmm, sounds a bit like they might end up being a baby Bolt version of Hedman/Strålman eventually. lol Although both would probably be paired with vets until they get some experience. Two rookies on a pairing during away games just invites opposing teams to snack on 'em.

I know Dotchin did well in his 35 games in the NHL, but he needs to show that he can perform at that level without being paired with Heddy. Some people here who saw more of him during the Calder Cup playoffs were not impressed with his performance there. I still think his true top ranking is as a solid 3rd pair Dman. Which is not a bad thing. Wouldn't it be nice to have 3 actual GOOD pairings? I see a higher ultimate potential in Cernak and Hajek. But, as always, that's just mho.

Whatever happens, it definitely looks like we have some really good prospects in the pipeline. When we disagree about rankings because we have so many good kids to pick from, we have a very good development program.

Why does he have to prove that? Tons of guys make a career out of being a comolimentary piece, its called knowing your role and Dotchin excelled at playing the simple.game when called up. He'll succeed in that role more than any of the "do it yourself" type of guys most who which wont be in the NHL for very long or at all.

Dotchin may not have a higher ceiling but he definitely has a higher floor than any of the guys listed, not sure why that isnt taken more into account considering the goal of a prospect is to actually make it into the big leagues.

 

[JoVel]

To play devil's advocate, Keith Aulie had a great 40 game stint as a top pairing defenseman next to Dion Phaneuf and was heralded as such. We all know where he ended up. I think everyone should pause on the Dotchin hype until we have more of a sample size. He was on nobody's radar until this past season.

Some prospects don't turn out how people expect, that's how it goes. If you want to you can find a prospect poll on this forum where we voted Henri Ikonen over Brayden Point. The thing with Dotchin is all he has to do is keep up his play from last season and I think everyone will be fine with it. And also on you saying how he was on nobody's radar last season, that's just how it often goes with prospects. You can go from a nobody to top prospect or from top prospect to nobody in a single year. For example, Koekkoek did the absolutely reverse from Dotchin; last year he was our top prospects and everyone thought he would be with the big club for the season but how did that end up? Now he has fallen massively in our rankings.

 

[TeslaCoilFan]

Why does he have to prove that? Tons of guys make a career out of being a comolimentary piece, its called knowing your role and Dotchin excelled at playing the simple.game when called up. He'll succeed in that role more than any of the "do it yourself" type of guys most who which wont be in the NHL for very long or at all.

Dotchin may not have a higher ceiling but he definitely has a higher floor than any of the guys listed, not sure why that isnt taken more into account considering the goal of a prospect is to actually make it into the big leagues.

Nothing at all wrong with being a complimentary type player. And you are correct in that he did very well at the simple game when called up. Definitely does have a higher floor than most because he did show he could hang with the big dogs in the NHL. I think that's why he ended up being #6 in these rankings.

But when I'm ranking our prospects, I'm not just ranking by if they're going to make it into the NHL, but what their top potential might be once they get in. I see a higher ceiling with Sergachev, Foote, Cernak and maybe Hajek in that I think each one of them have a good chance at being able to eventually carry a pairing as the dominant partner, not the complimentary one. Other people might have different ranking criteria, but that's what's floating around my fuzzy little brain.

The forward prospects are much more of a random guessing exercise for me as I find it much harder to predict/analyze potential outcomes for them. That's why I usually stay away from any forward line combo predictions in the Roster thread and stick with defensive pairings.

Training Camp and the Pre-Season games are definitely going to be fun to watch, especially with regards to the defense positions/pairings/possibilities!

 

[Five Alarm Fire]

Some prospects don't turn out how people expect, that's how it goes. If you want to you can find a prospect poll on this forum where we voted Henri Ikonen over Brayden Point. The thing with Dotchin is all he has to do is keep up his play from last season and I think everyone will be fine with it. And also on you saying how he was on nobody's radar last season, that's just how it often goes with prospects. You can go from a nobody to top prospect or from top prospect to nobody in a single year. For example, Koekkoek did the absolutely reverse from Dotchin; last year he was our top prospects and everyone thought he would be with the big club for the season but how did that end up? Now he has fallen massively in our rankings.

I think we all hope that Dotchin will pick up from where he started last year. It creates so many pairing opportunities for us. I'm just skeptical he can keep it up, based on performances outside of that 34 game span. I brought up Aulie as a cautionary tale. Jake is far from proven still.

Your second point just refers to how quick things change, and how fast we are to over-react to new information (especially on HF). That Point ranking you're referring to was right after he was drafted. Even Raddysh was very low last year. Both of those examples have shown a steady progression since being drafted, while Dotchin came out of nowhere last season, in his 5th development year.

Again, fingers crossed with Dotchin, but cautious optimism.