Talking Pairwise

[Oilers Chick]

With only a about a month left in the NCAA regular season, I thought this would be a good time to start talking about the Pairwise Rankings (PWR).

For those of you unfamiliar with the PWR, it's the prime source of determining the at-large bids and seedings for the NCAA Tournament. Jayson Moy over at USCHO does a wonderful job of explaining the PWR and how it works. You can follow it HERE and it includes helpful links pertaining to the PWR.

If the NCAA tournament started today, here are the teams that would get the automatic bids based on their current conference standings:

Mercyhurst - Atlantic Hockey
Big 10 - Minnesota
ECAC - Union College
Hockey East - Boston College
NCHC - St. Cloud State
WCHA - Ferris State

It's important to note here that Mercyhurst is the only team not amongst the current top 16 in the PWR.

The following teams would receive at-large bids based on the current PWR, if the tourney started today:

Quinnipiac, Cornell, UMass-Lowell, Michigan, Northeastern and Providence College.


Current teams on the bubble:

Minnesota-Duluth, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, North Dakota and Notre Dame.


This scenario will change as games are played. One thing that most people don't realize about the PWR is the fact that it isn't only conference games that affect each team's PWR. Non-conference games also have a great impact. In some cases, more so. For example, a team like Michigan who is in the Big Ten, will be watching closely to see how ranked teams in the ECAC and Hockey East are doing because those teams could have a significant impact on their PWR.

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[Oilers Chick]

With about two weeks left in the regular season for most teams and three or four more for others, the conferences races are heating up and so is the movement in the PWR. That's been especially true for the "bubble" teams such as Notre Dame, Minnesota-Duluth and Colgate.

Barring a complete meltdown from here on out, Boston College and Minnesota are almost certain to lock up the #1 seeds in the Northeast Regional and West Regional respectively.

Since Minnesota hosts the West Regional this year, they will be in that regional regardless if they get the #1 seed or not, so long as they do make it into the NCAA Tournament (which looks pretty definite right now).

 

[Oilers Chick]

With the conference tournaments (with the exception of the Big Ten) now underway, we've seen some big fluctuations in the PWR. FYI, the Big Ten tournament begins this coming weekend.

Here's how things are looking should the NCAA Tournament start tomorrow:

First, the automatic bids. These are the highest seeded teams remaining teams in the conference tournaments.

Atlantic Hockey: Mercyhurst
Big Ten: Minnesota
ECAC: Union College
Hockey East: UMass-Lowell
NCHC: North Dakota
WCHA: Ferris State

With the exception of Mercyhurst, all of these teams are currently among the top 16 on the PWR. Atlantic Hockey currently has no teams ranked in the top 16, which means that whichever team wins the conference's auto-bid will also be its lone representative.

Next, which teams were bounced from their conference tournaments this weekend but still rank in the top 16 on the PWR: Boston College, St. Cloud State and Vermont.

Of the three aforementioned teams, Boston College and St. Cloud State are almost certain to get an at-large bid. BC is currently #2 on the PWR, while SCSU is tied for 9th on the current PWR.

That leaves Vermont. They are currently tied for #14 on the PWR. That puts them on the bubble and they will need help to gain an at-large bid because they won't be able to move up.

The other teams (not already mentioned) still in their respective conference tournaments that currently rank in the top 16 are as follows:

Wisconsin at #5
Quinnipiac at #6
Notre Dame at #8
Providence College tied at #9
Michigan at #11
Minnesota State-Mankato tied at #12
Colgate at #15
Cornell at #16

The bottom half teams will likely need to win their conference's auto bid OR get some help from teams ranked higher in the PWR. But there are a number of other teams still in play for auto-bids or could even squeak in with an at-large bid depending on what happens this coming weekend. The two teams currently on the outside who have the inside track here are New Hampshire at #17 and Western Michigan tied at #18. Again, these teams would have to either win their conference's auto bid OR get lots of help to get an at-large bid.

It should get really interesting before next Sunday when the 16-team field is announced.

 

[MN_Gopher]

If Nodak does not win the tourny they are out.

There are some really weird senerios past that too.

 

[Dakota Sioux]

If Nodak does not win the tourny they are out.

There are some really weird senerios past that too.

UND doesn't need to win the tourney to get in. Of course I hope they do and take all the drama out of it but if they win either one of the 2 games they still have a chance although it's under 50%.



#13 UND makes the tournament in 42% of scenarios in which it wins 1 game and .5% of scenarios in which it has no wins (a tie in the consolation game seems to be required).

Because the NCHC has a consolation game, UND could exit the tournament with one win either by winning then losing, or by losing then winning. The two have slightly different outlooks.

If UND wins its first game, it makes the tournament in about 46% of scenarios in which it loses the championship game. Most useful to UND in this situation seems to be #12 Minnesota State, #16 Cornell, #15 Colgate, and #11 Michigan losing (note that #14 Vermont is not playing).

If UND loses its first game, it makes the tournament in about .5% of scenarios in which it ties the consolation game or about 36% of scenarios in which it wins the consolation game. Most useful to UND in this situation seems to be #17 New Hampshire, #21 Ohio State, #16 Cornell, and #15 Colgate losing (note again that #14 Vermont is not playing).

North Dakota is also helped by autobids going to highly ranked teams.

 

[MN_Gopher]

UND doesn't need to win the tourney to get in. Of course I hope they do and take all the drama out of it but if they win either one of the 2 games they still have a chance although it's under 50%.



#13 UND makes the tournament in 42% of scenarios in which it wins 1 game and .5% of scenarios in which it has no wins (a tie in the consolation game seems to be required).

Because the NCHC has a consolation game, UND could exit the tournament with one win either by winning then losing, or by losing then winning. The two have slightly different outlooks.

If UND wins its first game, it makes the tournament in about 46% of scenarios in which it loses the championship game. Most useful to UND in this situation seems to be #12 Minnesota State, #16 Cornell, #15 Colgate, and #11 Michigan losing (note that #14 Vermont is not playing).

If UND loses its first game, it makes the tournament in about .5% of scenarios in which it ties the consolation game or about 36% of scenarios in which it wins the consolation game. Most useful to UND in this situation seems to be #17 New Hampshire, #21 Ohio State, #16 Cornell, and #15 Colgate losing (note again that #14 Vermont is not playing).

North Dakota is also helped by autobids going to highly ranked teams.

Mercyhurst or who ever from that conference makes it a top 15 race. If Nodak loses its a top 14 race as no one left in the NCHC is currently in other than NoDak and SCCC.

The only two senerios that worked was MI losing to PSU in round one. And MSU losing to Bowling Green. Think i ran them all. If they do not win it all.
Then Bowling Green has a chance to win it all and make it a top 13.

Cornell and New Hampshie can really screw things up.

For some reason Vermont moves up to 12th in most senerios. They are almost locks. HE did somehting right this year.



I keep getting MI, Vermont and MSU as the last three.

 

[Jroads]

Michigan drops to 16, pretty much season over. UND moves to 11, a win tonight is almost a lock for the tourney. I'm hoping for UND to get the #10 and a trip to St Paul, with a UND-Minnesota matchup for the Frozen Four. Wishful thinking, but it's possible.

 

[Oilers Chick]

With the results from Thursday & Friday, the PWR has once again gone crazy. Here's how things look heading into tonight's conference championships:


First, lets look at tonight's match ups:


Atlantic Hockey: Canisius vs. Robert Morris

NCHC: Miami vs. Denver

These four teams ALL currently sit outside of the PWR's top 16, which means the winners tonight moves onto the NCAA Tournament. The losers sees their season come to an end.


ECAC: Colgate vs. Union College

Both of these teams currently sit high enough in the PWR that both will advance to the NCAA Tournament regardless of the outcome of the game.


WCHA: Minnesota State-Mankato vs. Ferris State

Ferris State currently sits high enough in the PWR that they will advance to the NCAA Tournament regardless of the outcome of the game.

If Minnesota State-Mankato wins, they are definitely in. If they lose, they could still make the NCAA Tournament but will need some help from the following teams: Ferris State, UMass-Lowell and Wisconsin


Big Ten: Ohio State vs. Wisconsin

Hockey East: New Hampshire vs. UMass-Lowell

Wisconsin and UMass-Lowell both currently sits high enough in the PWR that they will advance to the NCAA Tournament regardless of the outcome of their respective games.

Ohio State and New Hampshire MUST win tonight to secure a berth in the NCAA Tournament.


NCHC Consolation Game: Western Michigan vs. North Dakota


The NCHC is the only conference that will play a consolation game in addition to the championship game. (For more info, see the Conference Tournaments thread)

Western Michigan's season is over regardless of the outcome of the game.

North Dakota MUST win the game AND get help from the following teams: Ferris State, UMass-Lowell and Wisconsin


Second, the following teams (not including those mentioned previously) have secured a berth in the NCAA Tournament due to their high PWRs:

Minnesota, Boston College, Quinnipiac, Notre Dame and St. Cloud State

You'll notice that these teams either were bounced from their conference tournaments last weekend or lost yesterday.


Finally, these are the bubble teams (in addition to aforementioned teams previously noted):

Providence College, Vermont, and Michigan

Both Providence College and Michigan lost earlier this weekend. Vermont was bounced from the Hockey East tournament last weekend.

These three teams MUST get help from these teams to secure a berth in the NCAA Tournament: Ferris State, UMass-Lowell and Wisconsin


Tomorrow morning, we will find out who moves on and who goes home. The NCAA Tournament selection show will air live on Sunday, Mar. 23rd @ 11:30 am EST on ESPNU.

 

[Sports Enthusiast]

Damn Colgate. I guess my Cornell has no hope?

 

[Dakota Sioux]

If Nodak does not win the tourny they are out.

There are some really weird senerios past that too.

Didn't win their tourney yet they are in. Hmmmmmmm.

 

[MN_Gopher]

Didn't win their tourney yet they are in. Hmmmmmmm.

I clarified MI had to lose to PSU. Just defaulted that one, first time around.