Speculation: Super Official Post-Preseason Pre-Regular Season Statline Prediction Thread

[Trade]

With our season opener tonight, now is as good a time as any for some point predictions for the 2022-2023 regular season:

LETS-A GOOOO!

Click to read more...

 

[Trade]

all based on 82 gp because guessing players total gp seems like a bad omen.


FORWARDS:

Sid: 35-75-110
Jake: 50-45-95
Rakell: 29-37-66
Malkin: 36-49-85
Zucker: 22-22-44
Rust: 33-34-67
Heinen: 15-20-35
Carter: 24-20-44
Kapanen: 15-30-45
Teddy: 7-19-26
Poehling: 11-10-21
Archibald: 16-16-32
Brockstar: 13-13-26

DEFENSE:

Letang: 15-50-65
Petts: 6-15-21
Petry: 8-21-29
Smith: 10-38-48
POJ: 2-13-15
Ruh: 2-8-10
Rutta: 3-16-19
Dumo: 5-14-19

GOALIES

Jarry: 2.39 - .921%
CDS: 2.2 - .912%

 

[LOGiK]

all based on 82 gp because guessing players total gp seems like a bad omen.


FORWARDS:

Sid: 35-75-110
Jake: 50-45-95
Rakell: 29-37-66
Malkin: 36-49-85
Zucker: 22-22-44
Rust: 33-34-67
Heinen: 15-20-35
Carter: 24-20-44
Kapanen: 15-30-45
Teddy: 7-19-26
Poehling: 11-10-21
Archibald: 16-16-32
Brockstar: 13-13-26

DEFENSE:

Letang: 15-50-65
Petts: 6-15-21
Petry: 8-21-29
Smith: 10-38-48
POJ: 2-13-15
Ruh: 2-8-10
Rutta: 3-16-19
Dumo: 5-14-19

GOALIES

Jarry: 2.39 - .921%
CDS: 2.2 - .912%

That looks like a lot of goals from the defense.

Very optimistic with your numbers. (compared to last year)

 

[orby]

In a mythical world where everyone plays 82 games...and rounding off by 5's for the sake of simplicity:

Crosby 35-65-100
Guentzel 45-45-90
Malkin 30-50-80
Rust 30-40-70
Rakell 25-25-50
Zucker 20-25-45
Carter 15-25-40
Kapanen 20-20-40
Heinen 20-15-35
Blueger 10-25-35
Mcginn 15-15-30
Archibald 10-10-20

(assuming Poehling is 13F here. If not, probably similar stats to McGinn/Archibald)

Letang 15-50-65
Petry 10-30-40
Dumoulin 10-20-30
Rutta 5-15-20
Pettersson 5-20-25
POJ 5-15-20
Ruhwedel 5-10-15

(Smith is probably capable of 25 or 30 points if he's in the lineup a lot. Also assume a lot of the defensemen I predicted 5 goals for will probably score fewer than that).

Jarry 2.50 GAA, .918 sv%
DeSmith 2.80 GAA. 910 sv%

 

[HandshakeLine]

69 GP 33G 36A 69P 420PIM -84113

 

[Flying Dego]

all based on 82 gp because guessing players total gp seems like a bad omen.


FORWARDS:

Sid: 35-75-110
Jake: 50-45-95
Rakell: 29-37-66
Malkin: 36-49-85
Zucker: 22-22-44
Rust: 33-34-67
Heinen: 15-20-35
Carter: 24-20-44
Kapanen: 15-30-45
Teddy: 7-19-26
Poehling: 11-10-21
Archibald: 16-16-32
Brockstar: 13-13-26

DEFENSE:

Letang: 15-50-65
Petts: 6-15-21
Petry: 8-21-29
Smith: 10-38-48
POJ: 2-13-15
Ruh: 2-8-10
Rutta: 3-16-19
Dumo: 5-14-19

GOALIES

Jarry: 2.39 - .921%
CDS: 2.2 - .912%

Smith scoring 48 points and turning into an elite offensive dman?

waiter! I'll have what he's having!

Edit: I commend you for the guesswork. I'm too lazy to think that far into each player and frankly would look silly.

All you lads need to know is the Zuck hits 50!

 

[HandshakeLine]

My personal crazy prediction is McGinn only plays 25 games here before he's traded.

 

[Trade]

That looks like a lot of goals from the defense.

Very optimistic with your numbers. (compared to last year).

Smith scoring 48 points and turning into an elite offensive dman?

waiter! I'll have what he's having!

Edit: I commend you for the guesswork. I'm too lazy to think that far into each player and frankly would look silly.

All you lads need to know is the Zuck hits 50!

I’m a wishful thinker, delusional, or both!

All I know is I’m drinking whatever Kool-Aid Ty Smith is serving.

 

[Andy99]

Man, the optimism abounds this morning lol….

 

[Flying Dego]

 

[BobCole]

all based on 82 gp because guessing players total gp seems like a bad omen.


FORWARDS:

Sid: 35-75-110
Jake: 50-45-95
Rakell: 29-37-66
Malkin: 36-49-85
Zucker: 22-22-44
Rust: 33-34-67
Heinen: 15-20-35
Carter: 24-20-44
Kapanen: 15-30-45
Teddy: 7-19-26
Poehling: 11-10-21
Archibald: 16-16-32
Brockstar: 13-13-26

DEFENSE:

Letang: 15-50-65
Petts: 6-15-21
Petry: 8-21-29
Smith: 10-38-48
POJ: 2-13-15
Ruh: 2-8-10
Rutta: 3-16-19
Dumo: 5-14-19

GOALIES

Jarry: 2.39 - .921%
CDS: 2.2 - .912%

Holy goal scoring, Batman! You have the Pens scoring 369 goals. For reference, last year Florida led the league with 337 goals and the Pens scored just 269.

My stab at it:

Guentzel: 35 - 59 - 94
Crosby: 30 - 61 - 91
Malkin: 30 - 40 - 70
Rakell: 30 - 40 - 70
Rust: 28 - 35 - 63
Zucker: 25 - 25 - 50
Kapanen: 15 - 25 - 40
Heinen: 17 - 17 34
Carter: 15 - 15 - 30
McGinn: 13 - 13 - 26
Archibald: 7 - 10 - 17
Poehling: 7 - 7 14

Letang: 10 - 50 - 60
Petry: 10 - 29 - 39
Dumoulin: 4 - 16 - 20
Pettersson: 3 - 15 - 18
Ruuta: 2 - 12 - 14
Joseph: 3 - 6 - 9

Jarry: 30 - 18 - 12, 2.35, .919
DeSmith: 10 - 9 - 3, 2.6, .912

 

[Rakell67]

Poulin 3-4-7 (18 gp)
Caggiula 5-6-11 (22 gp)
O'Connor 4-5-9 (23 gp)
Puustinen 3-2-5 (15 gp)
Hallander 2-1-3 (10 gp)
Andonovski 1-0-1 (2 gp)

 

[Gurglesons]

69 GP 33G 36A 69P 420PIM -84113

- 8008S

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Prediction:

Good-

Crosby is gonna have one of his years where he decides to be more of a goal scorer and gets around 45

Bad-

Rust scores at a 50 point pace

 

[Buddy Bizarre]

My personal crazy prediction is McGinn only plays 25 games here before he's traded.

It's funny that the debate seems to be Poehling or Archibald.
I think McGinn should be thrown in there too for HS consideration. I just don't understand what he brings to this team?

He scored 12 goals in 64 games while shooting like 13%. That's a bit above his career average. Boyle did the same with less ice time and a ton less cap hit

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Watch McGinn be Geno's LW and poor man's Kunitz by the end of the season.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Watch McGinn be Geno's LW and poor man's Kunitz by the end of the season.

This team sure seems to have an overabundance of "poor man Kunitzes" at least by hopeful reputation.

 

[Andy99]

It's funny that the debate seems to be Poehling or Archibald.
I think McGinn should be thrown in there too for HS consideration. I just don't understand what he brings to this team?

He scored 12 goals in 64 games while shooting like 13%. That's a bit above his career average. Boyle did the same with less ice time and a ton less cap hit

He’s another guy who tanked the second half of the season and makes more money than those guys so it’s even more embarrassing

 

[BobCole]

With the regular season coming to a close, I thought it would be fun to readdress this thread and evaluate how players performed relative to expectations this season.

Below I've cited my predictions, with actual production (Adjusted for an 82-game pace) added in bold.

My stab at it:

Guentzel: 35 - 59 - 94 | 38 - 40 - 78
Crosby: 30 - 61 - 91 | 34 - 59 - 93
Malkin: 30 - 40 - 70 | 27 - 57 - 84
Rakell: 30 - 40 - 70 | 29 - 31 - 60
Rust: 28 - 35 - 63 | 21 - 27 - 48
Zucker: 25 - 25 - 50 | 29 - 23 - 52
Kapanen: 15 - 25 - 40 | 13 - 25 - 38
Heinen: 17 - 17 34 | 9 - 18 - 27
Carter: 15 - 15 - 30 | 14 - 17 - 31
McGinn: 13 - 13 - 26 | 14 - 8 - 22
Archibald: 7 - 10 - 17 | 8 - 7 - 15
Poehling: 7 - 7 14 | 11 - 11 - 22

Letang: 10 - 50 - 60 | 15 - 37 - 52
Petry: 10 - 29 - 39 | 7 - 33 - 40
Dumoulin: 4 - 16 - 20 | 1 - 25 - 26
Pettersson: 3 - 15 - 18 | 1 - 28 - 29
Ruuta: 2 - 12 - 14 | 4 - 9 - 13
Joseph: 3 - 6 - 9 | 4 - 9 - 13

Jarry: 30 - 18 - 12, 2.35, .919 | 24 - 12 - 6, 2.89, 0.910
DeSmith: 10 - 9 - 3, 2.6, .912 | 15 - 16 - 4, 3.17, 0.905

Relative to my expectations in terms of offensive production, the following players outperformed:
Malkin
Pettersson
Joseph

Conversely, the following underperformed:
Guentzel
Rakell
Letang
Rust
Heinen
Jarry
DeSmith

Using the eye test, I'd add the following observations:
Malkin had a good year. Would love to see him scoring 30+ again, and he still distributes the puck well. His frustration penalties are down some, and although he's still a "high risk high reward" player, I think he's balancing that out better than he has in years past.

Rust did not have a good year. Not enough of a difference maker and we paid him to be one.

I think Guentzel had a bit of a down year.

Rakell didn't meet my lofty expectations in terms of offensive output, but he had a good year.

Zucker finally put up the kind of year we hoped he would. It's a shame we may not be able to fit him back.

I'm surprised to see that the bottom 6 generally didn't perform meaningfully worse than I expected them to in terms of offensive output, but so many guys look worse than their output might lead you to believe. Guys like Carter and Heinen, plus the guys we jettisoned like Kapanen and McGinn.

Pettersson and Joseph had good seasons, despite Joseph slowing down towards seasons' end. Ruuta proved to be a good pickup.

Dumoulin looked cooked for much of the season. I think he's looked leagues better in the last 10-20 games.

Team defense remains extremely suspect.

Another disappointment this year has been goaltending. Although goaltending has regressed league-wide, Jarry's health and inconsistency have nonetheless been troubling. DeSmith has been up and down - about what you might expect for a backup - but a SV% hovering around .900 and a GAA above 3 also isn't good enough.

So much of this mediocre regular season can be attributed to a very underwhelming bottom-6, mediocre-to-bad goaltending, and lackluster team defense.

How much of this can/should be attributed to bad coaching and bad management is certainly a question worth debating.