tarheelhockey
Offside Review Specialist
if i asked any coach if he had two attempts at 65% or an attempt at 40% and THEN two at 65%
But a lob pass to a rookie isn't going to succeed at a statistically ordinary rate.
In fact, Matthews wasn't even on the field for that last play. The announcers mentioned that he hadn't even practiced the 2-minute drill.
Say what you will about BB's understanding of statistics, but a football game is at heart an athletic contest. At the macro level you can run a system based on mathematical models, but at the micro level -- one play at the goal line to win a championship -- it comes down to athletes competing for a patch of grass. In that situation, you go with the most proven running back in football, the guy who has been shaking defenders like rag dolls all night. If that fails twice in a row, **** it. The better athletes will win.
Throwing a pass because it gets you 3 plays instead of 2 is missing the point of the competition. It's not a Quiz Bowl, you're not going to get an award for having the more statistically sound game plan. You're going to get an award if you knock the **** out of the other team and get the ball over the goal line. Slinging passes around in that situation is just playing with fire, as we saw very clearly illustrated last night.
This is to say nothing of the very real psychological aftermath of that decision. Wilson got Scott Norwooded. Lynch may not say so, but you know that he took it personally. Richard Sherman's face said it all. You had players in the locker room openly saying that it was the worst call they've ever seen. You think Carroll is going to get the genuine trust of that group back?