Summer 2018 Prospect Poll: #19

[Ruckus007]

All prospects who fit the HF prospect criteria are included.

ELIGIBILITY
-In his Age-24 season with fewer than 65 NHL games for a skater (or 45 games for a goalie).

-If signed out of Europe or the NCAA at age 22 or older, fewer than 65 (skaters) or 45 (goalies) games within three years of signing.

-Linus Ullmark is 25 and has less than 45 games, he won't be included.

-The following players' eligibility is based on the 22 and over rule: Casey Nelson (expires 03/22/19), C.J. Smith (03/30/20), Lawrence Pilut (03/15/21), Andrew Oglevie (04/11/21), Victor Olofsson (04/24/21), Brandon Hickey (07/01/21)

-Danny O'Regan will age out after this season.

-If I have made any mistakes with the list, let me know.

RULES
Each poll runs 24 hours and is public. Vote for your choice and nominate a prospect from the list below to replace that player on the subsequent poll.

If there is a tie in the Top 10, there will be a run-off and the losing prospect will be returned to the pool for the next vote. Outside the Top 10, the tie will hold, the two highest Adds will be added and we'll move on.

PROSPECT RANKINGS
In the past, we've also done skater-only and goalie-only threads, as well as aggregate-type of rankings. If someone is interested, they are welcome to inherit that responsibility.

Summer 2018, Top 20
1. Rasmus Dahlin, D (nr) : by acclimation
2. Casey Mittelstadt, C (-1) : 10 of 11 votes (90.9%). Runner up, Tage Thompson (1 vote)
3. Brendan Guhle, D (-1) : 23 of 34 votes (67.6%). Runner up, Alexander Nylander (4 votes)
4. Alexander Nylander, LW (-1) : 61 of 147 votes (41.5%). Runner up, Rasmus Asplund (37 votes)
5. Rasmus Asplund, C (-1) : 72 of 138 votes (52.2%). Runner up, Tage Thompson (15 votes)
6. Tage Thompson, C (nr) : 18 of 59 votes (30.5%). Runner up, Victor Olofsson (17 votes)
7. Victor Olofsson, RW (--) : 27 of 57 votes (47.4%). Runner up, Lawrence Pilut (16 votes)
8. Lawrence Pilut, D (nr) : 32 of 64 votes (50.0%). Runner up, Mattias Samuelsson (11 votes)
9. Mattias Samuelsson, D (nr) : 24 of 65 votes (36.9%). Runner up, Marcus Davidsson (20 votes)
10. Marcus Davidsson, C (-1) : 34 of 72 votes (47.2%). Runner up, Will Borgen (13 votes)
11. Will Borgen, D (-3) : 18 of 51 votes (35.3%). Runner ups, O. Laaksonen, U. Luukkonen, C. Smith (8 votes each)
12. Oskari Laaksonen, D (+9/nr) : 19 of 67 votes (28.4%). Runner up, Ukka-Pekka Luukkonen (18 votes)
13. Ukka-Pekka Luukkonen, G (+1) : 26 of 59 votes (44.1%). Runner up, C.J. Smith (16 votes)
14. C.J. Smith, LW (-2) : 24 of 48 votes (50.0%). Runner up, Matej Pekar (9 votes)
15. Matej Pekar, C (nr) : 15 of 55 votes (27.3%). Runner up, Casey Nelson (14 votes)
16. Casey Nelson, D (-3) : 15 of 49 votes (30.6%). Runner up, Nicholas Baptiste (13 votes)
17. Nicholas Baptiste, RW (-6) : 15 of 48 votes (31.3%). Runners up, C. Fitzgerald and D. O'Regan (7 votes each)
18. Justin Bailey, RW (-3) : 9 of 38 votes (23.7%). Runner up, Sean Malone (8 votes)

Click to read more...

 

[Gabrielor]

I actually recently completely overhauled my prospect ranking methods to be more in line with the model some other guys use here, and I wish we could run through the 20 again.

ORegan is my highest guy remaining. His development is slowing down, and I don’t project him particularly high, but he wins this list for me on potential, which is higher than anyone remaining.

 

[Husko]

I actually recently completely overhauled my prospect ranking methods to be more in line with the model some other guys use here, and I wish we could run through the 20 again.

ORegan is my highest guy remaining. His development is slowing down, and I don’t project him particularly high, but he wins this list for me on potential, which is higher than anyone remaining.

What is your model? The one I've settled on, and like quite a bit, is:

Realistic Ceiling: 35%
Realistic Floor: 15%
Honest Expectation: 35%
Stage of Development/Years from NHL: 15%

For the first 3, My 1-10 rankings correspond to:

10	Generational Player
9	Elite Talent/Perennial Allstar/#1 Center Dman
8	First Line forward/No. 2 Dman/High Eng Goalie
7	Second Line Forward/Shutdown Center/Second Pairing Dman/Average #1 G
6	3rd line forward/3rd pairing dman/high end backup G
5	4th Line forward/7th dman/low end backup G
4	High end minor leaguer
3	average minor leaguer/Euro star
2	ECHL player/Europe regular
1	Can't make it in professional hockey

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

For the development category:

10	NHL ready
9	Almost/possibly NHL ready
8	AHL for less than a year
7	AHL for a year
6	AHL for more than a year
5	1 more year in juniors/college
4	2 years in juniors/college
3	multiple years in juniors/college
2	Year in USHL or other minor development league
1	May not even make it to high junior

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

And this system is how for me, a player like Malone, who is still on the board in these rankings, becomes my #12.

Player	Total	Ceiling	35%	Floor	15%	Expectation	35%	Development	15%
Sean Malone	6.475	7	2.45	5	0.75	5.5	1.925	9	1.35

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

This juxtaposes with someone like Laaksonen, who at face and gut level I actually like, but my rankings pull all the way down to #21.

Player	Total	Ceiling	35%	Floor	15%	Expectation	35%	Development	15%
Oskari Laaksonen	5.5	7.5	2.625	3	0.45	5	1.75	4.5	0.675

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

And so I'm voting Malone again.

 

[Sabre the Win]

I actually recently completely overhauled my prospect ranking methods to be more in line with the model some other guys use here, and I wish we could run through the 20 again.

ORegan is my highest guy remaining. His development is slowing down, and I don’t project him particularly high, but he wins this list for me on potential, which is higher than anyone remaining.

This mid season rankings are always better because we have new information to go on.

 

[Gabrielor]

What is your model? The one I've settled on, and like quite a bit, is:

Realistic Ceiling: 35%
Realistic Floor: 15%
Honest Expectation: 35%
Stage of Development/Years from NHL: 15%

For the first 3, My 1-10 rankings correspond to:

10	Generational Player
9	Elite Talent/Perennial Allstar/#1 Center Dman
8	First Line forward/No. 2 Dman/High Eng Goalie
7	Second Line Forward/Shutdown Center/Second Pairing Dman/Average #1 G
6	3rd line forward/3rd pairing dman/high end backup G
5	4th Line forward/7th dman/low end backup G
4	High end minor leaguer
3	average minor leaguer/Euro star
2	ECHL player/Europe regular
1	Can't make it in professional hockey

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

For the development category:

10	NHL ready
9	Almost/possibly NHL ready
8	AHL for less than a year
7	AHL for a year
6	AHL for more than a year
5	1 more year in juniors/college
4	2 years in juniors/college
3	multiple years in juniors/college
2	Year in USHL or other minor development league
1	May not even make it to high junior

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

And this system is how for me, a player like Malone, who is still on the board in these rankings, becomes my #12.

Player	Total	Ceiling	35%	Floor	15%	Expectation	35%	Development	15%
Sean Malone	6.475	7	2.45	5	0.75	5.5	1.925	9	1.35

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

This juxtaposes with someone like Laaksonen, who at face and gut level I actually like, but my rankings pull all the way down to #21.

Player	Total	Ceiling	35%	Floor	15%	Expectation	35%	Development	15%
Oskari Laaksonen	5.5	7.5	2.625	3	0.45	5	1.75	4.5	0.675

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

And so I'm voting Malone again.

Jame messaged me a percentage-to-term breakdown a bit ago, and I turned that into a google sheet that I update. I’ll link the numbers when I’m home, can’t do it on my phone easily.

Looking at yours, I know the scales I use are out of 5 rather than 10, but the same idea

 

[NotABadPeriod]

Hickey.

 

[Gabrielor]

What is your model? The one I've settled on, and like quite a bit, is:

Realistic Ceiling: 35%
Realistic Floor: 15%
Honest Expectation: 35%
Stage of Development/Years from NHL: 15%

For the first 3, My 1-10 rankings correspond to:

10	Generational Player
9	Elite Talent/Perennial Allstar/#1 Center Dman
8	First Line forward/No. 2 Dman/High Eng Goalie
7	Second Line Forward/Shutdown Center/Second Pairing Dman/Average #1 G
6	3rd line forward/3rd pairing dman/high end backup G
5	4th Line forward/7th dman/low end backup G
4	High end minor leaguer
3	average minor leaguer/Euro star
2	ECHL player/Europe regular
1	Can't make it in professional hockey

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

For the development category:

10	NHL ready
9	Almost/possibly NHL ready
8	AHL for less than a year
7	AHL for a year
6	AHL for more than a year
5	1 more year in juniors/college
4	2 years in juniors/college
3	multiple years in juniors/college
2	Year in USHL or other minor development league
1	May not even make it to high junior

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

And this system is how for me, a player like Malone, who is still on the board in these rankings, becomes my #12.

Player	Total	Ceiling	35%	Floor	15%	Expectation	35%	Development	15%
Sean Malone	6.475	7	2.45	5	0.75	5.5	1.925	9	1.35

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

This juxtaposes with someone like Laaksonen, who at face and gut level I actually like, but my rankings pull all the way down to #21.

Player	Total	Ceiling	35%	Floor	15%	Expectation	35%	Development	15%
Oskari Laaksonen	5.5	7.5	2.625	3	0.45	5	1.75	4.5	0.675

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

And so I'm voting Malone again.

Grade Math

50% Talent/Ceiling

20% Development

15% Floor

15% Projection

Talent/Ceiling, Floor, and Projection graded on the following scale:

6 = Generational

5 = Star talent

4.5 = Upper Top Line/Pair Talent

4.0 = Lower Top Line/Pair Talent

3.5 = 2nd tier (top checking, secondary scoring, 2nd pair etc)

3.0 = Upper Non Top6/Top4 NHL talent (Checker, PP QB, 3rd pair, etc)

2.5 = Lower Non Top6/Top4 NHL talent (4th line, depth D)

2.0 = Upper AHL future

1.5 = Lower AHL Future

1.0 = ECHL Fodder

0.5 = Find a new job

Development graded on the following scale:

5 = Proven NHLer

4.5 = NHL Ready

4 = Within a season of NHL Ready

3.5 = Pro level development

3 = Developing at proper rate

2.5 = Development is stalled

2 = Under developing

1.5 = Development failing

1 = Underdevelopment Complete

0.5 = Find a new job

VIEW

5 - I've seen this guy play 20+ league level and tournament level games across multiple seasons

4 - I've seen this guy play 11 to 20 games including at least 5 non tournament games

3 - I've seen this guy play 5 to 10 games (league or tournament)

2 - I've seen this guy play at least 1 game this year

1 - I've only watched detailed video compilations highlighting his play

0 - I've only read about him and watched the occasional highlight video

* Dev Camps count as a game per day attended

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

For example:

			CEILING	DEVELOP	FLOOR	PROJ	SCORE	VIEW
O'Regan	RW	R	3.5	2.5	2.0	2.0	5.70	2

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I'm only going by wholes and halves in version 1.0 (.5 and .0).

To me, ORegan's development cycle is reaching end. His floor is a productive AHL player. I project him to be just that, but I still have the ceiling of a secondary scorer in the NHL. He has the tools, and still has time. My viewing of him was less than 5 AHL for Rochester this year (3).


(Again, this model can be credited to Jame)