Prospect Info: Summer 2014 Prospect Poll: Final rankings

[Tawnos]

If ever there was a year for me not to do this poll post-draft and instead of it post-preseason, this was the year. I really wish I'd waited. Haggerty sure as hell wouldn't have been below Kristo, Hrivik wouldn't be below Tambellini, Noreau wouldn't have been #29. I suspect a bunch of rankings would be different.

In the future, I will do them post-WJC and then we'll wait to do them post-preseason. There will be no more summer polls, instead, we'll do early season poll and mid-season poll because that's when we wind up seeing the most of our top prospects.

I agree. In fact I posted this in thread about where Kevin Hayes ranks:

I have a hard time not seeing him as top-5 in the organization.

That being said, I think the only real reason we do these polls in the summer is to fill the downtime. Right after training camp is really a much, much better period for evaluating where these players stand.

I also think that the offseason is so incredibly important for young players development as a time to internalize that between the end of one season and beginning of another, the player can really mature.

 

[Ghost of jas]

We can argue semantics and opinions the live long day. The bottom line is that most people outside the organization and its fan base do not think highly of the Rangers farm system.

Between 2006-2011 the system was usually strong and deep, and ranked as such. The rankings were just, as the Rangers have been of the better EC teams the last three years.

The Rangers have graduated a lot of quality NHL players. No shame in having a weaker farm system because your previous farm system graduated to the big show.

Right now, it's lacking depth. If Stepan blows out his knee, who is replacing his 60 points? If Staal is traded this year, who is replacing his 22 minutes? If McDonagh misses three weeks, who is playing 26 minutes a night?

The best players in the Rangers system aren't NHL ready. The ones who are NHL ready are a ways away from being consistent top-6 or top-4.

There's a gap between NHL roster players and pre-AHL prospects. It'll close in a year or two. But it's there.

And we can how much that actually means.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

And we can how much that actually means.

I was and still am looking at it from a center ice/defense perspective.

There are good depth guys but only Duclair and maybe Skjei can be even considered possible cornerstone guys, and Skjei being compared to McDonagh? Why? Cause they see a late offensive bloomer too? I see flashes but nothing to convince he's a franchise type.

I see the Rangers farm system possess lots of depth players to fill in depth roles when people leave or get hurt, which is what you want when your an already established winning team.

I said it was poor, and then they added Hayes who is a legit top-6 candidate at center in a few years.

I'd say now it's mediocre. I put zero stock into preseason. It's all AHL production which matters to me, unless you get a rare talent like Duclair who just shows you something instantly.

In Kreider's case, he already proved himself in the NHL playoffs so his AHL struggles didn't concern me at all.

 

[StepansLabyrinth]

Buchnevich absolutely has top-6 level talent and I don't consider him all that far behind Duclair, if he is at all. There's been no way to directly compare them but Buchnevich has been completely solid overseas. In fact, it's arguable that his stats from this season in the KHL are even more impressive than Duclair's preseason. 9 points in 15 games as a 19 year old. Compare his numbers to guys like Ovi, Semin, etc. at the same age in the same league and it makes Buchnevich look like a future star. Of course, he has a long way to go but I think he's every bit as talented as the guys who were taken in the first half of the first round of his draft.

People who crap on the Ranger's system don't consider Duclair/Buchnevich/Skjei as top level guys. I think they're way off with every single one of those players.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Buchnevich absolutely has top-6 level talent and I don't consider him all that far behind Duclair, if he is at all. There's been no way to directly compare them but Buchnevich has been completely solid overseas. In fact, it's arguable that his stats from this season in the KHL are even more impressive than Duclair's preseason. 9 points in 15 games as a 19 year old. Compare his numbers to guys like Ovi, Semin, etc. at the same age in the same league and it makes Buchnevich look like a future star. Of course, he has a long way to go but I think he's every bit as talented as the guys who were taken in the first half of the first round of his draft.

People who crap on the Ranger's system don't consider Duclair/Buchnevich/Skjei as top level guys. I think they're way off with every single one of those players.

I think the reason why people don't rate it high because they don't have enough players like Duclair and Skjei.

It's top heavy and the top is very good but not outstanding.

Prospects become casualties because of organizational depth. Right now the Rangers have only one top-9 spot (maybe 2 if MZA leaves) for a young player in the foreseeable future.

Kreider
Stepan
Hagelin
Brassard
MZA
Miller
Duclair
Hayes
Nash

There's not a lot of room there for skill forwards once MSL is gone. I know guys get hurt, struggle or want tons of money which makes org depth important, but it's more important for Rangers forward prospects to play all three zones. Especially now that Duclair is likely a fixture in the top-6 for several years.

Buchnevich has a ton of skill and is playing against men, but he won't make this team until he learns to play in all three zones. Duclair showed a ton of examples where you saw him willing to learn and make those sacrifices. Buchnevich hasn't done that yet.

Still, the overall group is very average. No top-end center hurts them.

 

[Beacon]

I think the reason why people don't rate it high because they don't have enough players like Duclair and Skjei.

It's top heavy and the top is very good but not outstanding. The

I definitely think other fan bases don't view Duke, Butcher and Skies as top prospects.

 

[Zil]

How many prospect groups have top end centers? There aren't that many of those guys in the league and 90% of them go in the top five picks.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

I definitely think other fan bases don't view Duke, Butcher and Skies as top prospects.

I'm more concerned with what Scouts say, and the fan bases only matter because outside of rivals they can offer objective insight.

The people I've talked with in and out of NYR hockey circles are pretty unanimous:

--Duclair is a stud who is one of the best natural goalscorer in the CHL

--Skjei is very steady and a team-oriented guy who has very high upside but will not likely be a franchise player.

--Buchnevich has a lot of maturing to do but his offensive talent is NHL-caliber.


I tend to agree with them.

 

[BarbaraAlphanse]

I'm more concerned with what Scouts say, and the fan bases only matter because outside of rivals they can offer objective insight.

The people I've talked with in and out of NYR hockey circles are pretty unanimous:

--Duclair is a stud who is one of the best natural goalscorer in the CHL

--Skjei is very steady and a team-oriented guy who has very high upside but will not likely be a franchise player.

--Buchnevich has a lot of maturing to do but his offensive talent is NHL-caliber.


I tend to agree with them.

I don't think anyone saw Ryan McDonagh, Martin St. Louis, Jamie Benn, etc... as franchise players.

Plenty of surprises. At this stage, a lot of players have exceptional hockey talent. Duke, Buch, Skjei have above average hockey talent - whether they become franchise players will be in the effort that they put in to become that. They each have enough talent to become a "franchise player". What gets them to that level as opposed to supporting pieces is the work they put in.

 

[Beacon]

I'm more concerned with what Scouts say, and the fan bases only matter because outside of rivals they can offer objective insight.

Same here. I don't care about the fans, just stating why they feel the way they do.

Butcher, Duke, Hayes, Miller, Skjei (in alphabetic order) are a tremendous top-5 as far as I'm concerned. Fast, Haggerty, Hrivik, Lindberg and McIlrath (also just alphabetic order) are beyond amazing as your second-5.

I must say, that's a hell of a top-10.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Same here. I don't care about the fans, just stating why they feel the way they do.

Butcher, Duke, Hayes, Miller, Skjei (in alphabetic order) are a tremendous top-5 as far as I'm concerned. Fast, Haggerty, Hrivik, Lindberg and McIlrath (also just alphabetic order) are beyond amazing as your second-5.

I must say, that's a hell of a top-10.

I've been following the game long enough to recall that everybody has positive things to say about all their own prospects until the kid is no longer affiliated with them.


I'm old enough to remember Hirsch being the best young goalie in the game, Steven Rice being the future captain, Darcy Werenka playing on Team Canada at a WJC, Rick Bennett being the next Tim Kerr and Soren True being the next Sandström.

Chirs Kotsopoulos was a favorite of mine because he was Greek, and when they traded him for Rogers I was very upset. He was a fighter and the Garden loved the kid.

The point is that all I heard about the aforementioned were good things when they were Ranger property.

Then they were no longer Ranger property and deservedly so.

 

[FLYLine27*]

Nope.

Miller is definitely NOT our #1 prospect. Most NHL ready maybe..and even that is a MAYBE.

I am so not even close to being sold on him being anything more than a 3rd liner. Sure he shows flashes, but his consistency is in the garbage, and it never improves year after year.

 

[Thirty One]

Sure he shows flashes, but his consistency is in the garbage, and it never improves year after year.

J.T. Miller - two year pro

 

[Beacon]

I've been following the game long enough to recall that everybody has positive things to say about all their own prospects until the kid is no longer affiliated with them.


I'm old enough to remember Hirsch being the best young goalie in the game, Steven Rice being the future captain, Darcy Werenka playing on Team Canada at a WJC, Rick Bennett being the next Tim Kerr and Soren True being the next Sandström.

Chirs Kotsopoulos was a favorite of mine because he was Greek, and when they traded him for Rogers I was very upset. He was a fighter and the Garden loved the kid.

The point is that all I heard about the aforementioned were good things when they were Ranger property.

Then they were no longer Ranger property and deservedly so.

We are probably around the same age since the group you mentioned was the first group of prospects I followed. Still distinctly remember when Hirsch played Tommy Salo in the Canada-Sweden game in 1994 (one is a Ranger prospect, the other Islander prospect).

Anyway, as you may have noticed, I follow prospects religiously, and this is a good group. They can all bust, but too many of them are very close for that to happen en masse. We've get a good haul from this bunch.

 

[FLYLine27*]

J.T. Miller - two year pro

So in 2 years, as a 19-21 year old we arent to expect a player to improve his consistency? He is still making the same mistakes he did 2 years ago.

Im not saying hes a terrible prospect, hes not by any means, but our 1st? I have a hard time believing that.

 

[Tawnos]

So in 2 years, as a 19-21 year old we arent to expect a player to improve his consistency? He is still making the same mistakes he did 2 years ago.

Im not saying hes a terrible prospect, hes not by any means, but our 1st? I have a hard time believing that.

He does make the same mistakes, but he also makes them far less regularly than he used to. Expecting a player in his situation to play mistake free hockey is setting the bar too high.

 

[FLYLine27*]

He does make the same mistakes, but he also makes them far less regularly than he used to. Expecting a player in his situation to play mistake free hockey is setting the bar too high.

I dont expect him to play mistake free, but I just feel he still makes way too many. Kreider originally did as well but he has really improved in that aspect...he still makes some mistakes but nowhere to the level as Miller IMO. Additionally, Kreider got a little more leeway since his offensive skills shined a bit more.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Miller was a reach at 15 in terms of how he was a late riser after his U18.

Nooooooobody thought this kid was a top-3 talent. Top-6 i.e. 18 mins a game and 20/50 was the max and bottom-6 role player was more likely.

I like the kid. Lots of tools. Dubinsky was drafted in 2004 and didn't become a proven regular until the middle the 2008 season.

He's had his three years post-draft to develop. Let's see what he does this season before we label him a bust or an average prospect.

 

[Tawnos]

I dont expect him to play mistake free, but I just feel he still makes way too many. Kreider originally did as well but he has really improved in that aspect...he still makes some mistakes but nowhere to the level as Miller IMO. Additionally, Kreider got a little more leeway since his offensive skills shined a bit more.

Kreider is 2 years older than Miller is and had the benefit of being the most physically mature player on the ice for nearly two seasons in college, which gives a player some extra headroom to learn the game. I still think the Rangers made a mistake keeping Miller up in 12-13, but here he is. I don't remember Miller making that many errors in pre-season, although I do remember two specific glaring ones. The rest of the mistakes were of the same variety that older players, such as Hagelin, make as well.

 

[Megustaelhockey]

This discussion has wrapped up. Thanks.