News Article: Study Suggests Top N.H.L. Teams May Suffer After Sochi

[Fugu]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/25/sp...ochi.html?_r=0

Link to Study: http://go.galegroup.com/ps/i.do?id=G...9e27d&rssr=rss

Several playoff contenders — the Chicago Blackhawks, the St. Louis Blues, the Montreal Canadiens, the Anaheim Ducks, the Vancouver Canucks, the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Rangers — sent seven or more players to the Sochi Olympics.
...
Still, a little-noticed 2012 study may provide such evidence: It found that for every player an N.H.L. club sent to the Olympics, the club’s goal differential dropped by 0.088 of a goal per game compared with its performance before the Games. That is to say, clubs that sent many players to the Olympics in 1998, 2002, 2006 and 2010 suffered a bigger performance drop-off, on the whole, than clubs that sent few players.

The study, conducted by the University of Massachusetts professor Neil Longley and published in The International Journal of Sport Finance, is believed to be the only one to quantify the Olympic fatigue effect on N.H.L. clubs during the run to the playoffs.

“It could be physical fatigue; it could be emotional fatigue — we can’t really answer that question,†Longley said in a telephone interview. “There could be an energizing effect to being at the Olympics. But the numbers show that the more Olympians an N.H.L. team supplies, the greater its post-Olympic drop-off relative to its pre-Olympic performance.â€

This one stings on a personal level:

If Longley’s findings hold true after the Sochi Games, the Red Wings could be in trouble. Detroit, which is in position for the last playoff spot in the East, sent 10 players to the Olympics. One point behind the Red Wings are the Ottawa Senators, who sent two players.

Author notes that the 1998, 2002 Wings and 2010 Hawks somehow overcame their deficits regardless, but I think the goal differential drop is fairly damning evidence.

Click to read more...

 

[Flowah]

Yay. Cause for optimism....

First pick here we come!

 

[Ricelund]

Didn't the Wings go on a pretty amazing run after the 2010 Olympics?

 

[The Zermanator]

Makes sense. It's typically top players that get sent to the Olympics where they play for two weeks while everyone else gets a two week break to rest and rejuvenate.

 

[ArGarBarGar]

Didn't the Wings go on a pretty amazing run after the 2010 Olympics?

Yup.


Franzen came back from injury.

 

[Henkka]

I don't think we will see any kind of big effect this season to us.

We did sent 10 players to Olympics yeah, but two were backup goalies (Howard, Gustavsson) who did not play. One guy was AHLr (Jurco), one a 3rd liner (Tatar).

Nyquist did not play huge minutes at Sochi. Under 8 minutes per game on average.

Zetterberg got injured, but Datsyuk did recover back in game shape, so the loss and gain in these cases will be pretty much equal.

Alfie played at same kind of role like at Detroit. Also Kronwall and Ericsson played with normal usage. They could have some drop-off.

Mostly in trouble could be teams who sent most key players (like Chicago and LA), and whose key players haven't had any breaks during the season.

We have already been underachieving at this season because of our injuries, and now the team is getting healthy (without Zetterberg). I think we could see the best Red Wings team in becoming weeks if we can finally stay healthy.

 

[Ricelund]

Yup.


Franzen came back from injury.

Just looked -- they went 16-3-2 after the break.

 

[crashman]

This is interesting, but maybe it's because player are trying to play well just to be selected, where as most of our players were pretty much shoe-ins from the start.

Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Alfredsson and Kronwall didn't have to prove anything, they would have been selected if they were having terrible seasons, I think they know that.

One could even argue that Jurco and Tatar were shoe-ins for Slovakia as well.

Heck, Howard almost played himself OFF of team USA, I sure hope his play doesn't get worse post-Sochi. I don't see that happening.

I guess what I'm saying is that I think the teams with lots of Canadian and US players, where the selection process seems a lot more competitive, would be more likely to be effected.

 

[Fugu]

Some people will point out how well the Wings did in 1998 and 2002 to refute the conclusion.

I think those rosters were so great they could overcome the effect of the differential slide.

Do you guys think goal differential is a good indicator? The data is irrefutable-- there is a slide of 0.088 per player sent.

 

[Henkka]

This is interesting, but maybe it's because player are trying to play well just to be selected, where as most of our players were pretty much shoe-ins from the start.

Good point. Someone like Patrick Sharp was in phenomenal form on december to get into team Canada. And he did. I don't think he can keep his scoring pace that high on a long run.

 

[jaster]

Some people will point out how well the Wings did in 1998 and 2002 to refute the conclusion.

I think those rosters were so great they could overcome the effect of the differential slide.

Do you guys think goal differential is a good indicator? The data is irrefutable-- there is a slide of 0.088 per player sent.

I was already worried about the Wings, post-Olympics, given how many players they sent. This analysis is pretty in-line with what I'd expect and there's no doubt it's an extra hurdle for this team in their effort to make the playoffs. How much of a hurdle is certainly up for debate though; the data isn't a definitive indicator.

 

[crashman]

Good point. Someone like Patrick Sharp was in phenomenal form on december to get into team Canada. And he did. I don't think he can keep his scoring pace that high on a long run.

Yeah, he was one of the guys that came to mind for me as well. James van Riemsdyk has been playing out of his mind for Toronto too, I bet his pace slows down quite a bit post-Olympics

 

[wingfan]

Yeah, he was one of the guys that came to mind for me as well. James van Riemsdyk has been playing out of his mind for Toronto too, I bet his pace slows down quite a bit post-Olympics

Max Pacioretty as well. He plays on a team that struggles to score goals and potted 26 in 50 games, definitely skewed compared to his career numbers. Not to say he's not a good player, but I don't think he's a 40+ goal guy in a full season...

 

[Frk It]

Some people will point out how well the Wings did in 1998 and 2002 to refute the conclusion.

I think those rosters were so great they could overcome the effect of the differential slide.

Do you guys think goal differential is a good indicator? The data is irrefutable-- there is a slide of 0.088 per player sent.

Didn't realize that it was per player sent, boy that's not good.

Jeez way to drop a big negative bomb on the board Fugu....

 

[ArGarBarGar]

Some people will point out how well the Wings did in 1998 and 2002 to refute the conclusion.

I think those rosters were so great they could overcome the effect of the differential slide.

Do you guys think goal differential is a good indicator? The data is irrefutable-- there is a slide of 0.088 per player sent.

What about 2010?

 

[ProPAIN]

Thankfully, we're not a top NHL side

 

[JmanWingsFan]

Obviously, the Red Wings have yet to be notified of this stunning turn of events. Since 1998, the Red Wings have a record of 57-19-7-6 after the Olympic break.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

I could believe it. For one thing, some of the Swedes could be a bit depressed. I'm thinking of Kronwall in particular, who looked like he just failed to pull his grandma out of a burning building when he received that silver medal. The other thing is, there could be a bit of a readjustment period for everybody, especially Babcock. It might take him a bit to realize he isn't coaching an all-star team anymore, and he might piss off the players by holding them to a ridiculous standard. Hell, I've always gotten the impression that the players felt he did that anyway. He just might be worse now.

and on top of that stuff, you take Zetterberg out of the locker room when he's such a big part of the heart of this team and you're looking at a recipe for locker room drama. This might be a team that takes a while to gel again.

 

[joe89]

Wings aren't beneficiaries that's for sure. I think teams like Anaheim, Chicago and Pittsburgh could take a bigger hit since they're locks for the playoffs, had their stars win gold etc., so they might struggle to find motivation for a while. For teams like that the key is to find steam in time for the playoffs. For us it's more about picking up where we left off asap.

For our young players I think it's more on the positive side, they probably learned something about playing high-quality games and what it takes. It's the rest of them that scares me. And a lot comes down to Pavel's health if we wanna be realistic about making the playoffs.

 

[Claypool]

Obviously, the Red Wings have yet to be notified of this stunning turn of events. Since 1998, the Red Wings have a record of 57-19-7-6 after the Olympic break.

Did you read the article?

“It’s overall trends we’re looking at here,†he said. “We tend to focus on the championship runs, but we’re looking at the whole league. This is probability-based. Given what we’ve seen in the last four Olympics, there’s an increased possibility that teams that send more players to the Olympics will see a drop.â

 

[JmanWingsFan]

Did you read the article?

“It’s overall trends we’re looking at here,†he said. “We tend to focus on the championship runs, but we’re looking at the whole league. This is probability-based. Given what we’ve seen in the last four Olympics, there’s an increased possibility that teams that send more players to the Olympics will see a drop.â€

I see no conflict with what I said. I'm merely pointing out that the Red Wings have traditionally bucked this trend. I'm just trying to be positive.

 

[Fugu]

Some more info, BOH has this topic up too:

Regressing also did a small piece on this.

http://regressing.deadspin.com/do-t...source=deadspin_twitter&utm_medium=socialflow

From that piece, a link to an SI Insider article, with this conclusion:

The best method might be simple results-oriented point pace. Over at ESPN, Neil Greenberg looked at the last four Olympics, and found that teams do have a slight slowing in their pace as they send more players to the Olympics, but that the post-games pace for all teams were within their expected ranges. And simply having good players won out more often than not—teams with six to nine Olympians made the playoffs 70 percent of the time, and teams with 10+ made it 100 percent of the time.

I assume that the 10+ Olympians actually have to come back healthy and be able to participate. Wings will be without Zetterberg for the stretch.

That's interesting though, that obviously the quality of the players can compensate for the slide in GD and other effects. Unlike prior Olympics, the caliber of the Wings players for this Olympics isn't as high as the prior ones that were loaded with future HOF'ers. A couple are rookies (Nyquist, Tatar), and some just go to country teams that aren't as deep. Jimmy Howard doesn't really count because he didn't play, etc.

 

[Winger98]

Wings aren't beneficiaries that's for sure. I think teams like Anaheim, Chicago and Pittsburgh could take a bigger hit since they're locks for the playoffs, had their stars win gold etc., so they might struggle to find motivation for a while. For teams like that the key is to find steam in time for the playoffs. For us it's more about picking up where we left off asap.

For our young players I think it's more on the positive side, they probably learned something about playing high-quality games and what it takes. It's the rest of them that scares me. And a lot comes down to Pavel's health if we wanna be realistic about making the playoffs.

I still haven't made it all the way through the article,but I'd wonder if we don't see a slide among teams around the last twenty games of every season. What I took from it is that they looked at Olympic years and compared the front and back halves, but it seems to me like the league tightens up every year around the last twenty games as teams start fighting a bit harder for the playoffs and some other teams start slacking off a bit to pace themselves.

 

[Squirrel in the Hole]

I wouldn't worry too much about Babcock, he basically imposed his will on a team of superstars and came away with a gold, he's brimming with confidence and ready to take the wheel and guide the Wings into the playoffs. Kronwall, while feeling deeply about losing, has also shown he can shake it off as well. The rest of the Olympic contingent (Zetterberg being the obvious exception) shouldn't be effected much that they can't shake it off once they get the winged wheel on their chest (and Pasha could bring some of that passion along with him from Sochi). And, everyone else is rested and Weiss and Franzen are (hopefully) back. Happy days.

I could see the members of Team USA taking a hit, and teams like Toronto (Kessel and JVR) and Pittsburgh (Bylsma and Malkin) taking a hit, but, in a week's time all should be as it was. The trade deadline (if it's significant this year) probably poses more uncertainty.

 

[Crymson]

Yeah, **** the Olympics. Instead of continuing to rehab, Datsyuk came back early to play two games before the break---presumably so that he wouldn't piss off the management---and, as a result of his early return and participation in the Olympics, is still just as injured now as he was before the Olympics. And with Zetterberg out, this is a guy whom the Red Wings absolutely need to be healthy.

I can understand Datsyuk being unwilling to miss these Olympics, given that they were played in his own nation and he was the captain of the team. Still, it's annoying. These guys are paid to play for their team, not to throw prudence to the wind because of a desire to play in an outside tournament. Yzerman received the same flak in 2002, and it would have been perfectly justified had he not performed so well in that year's playoffs.