Okay, so, I just ran a quick regression to determine the impact of Stoppable Goals on Delta Save Percentage. Here's what I got:
For every 1 percentage by which stoppable goals percentage increases, delta save percentage decreases by 0.04%. Here is what this looks like on a graph:
Statistically speaking, the p value of this is 0.2108, which says that there is not a statistically significant correlation between the two.
However, I can't help but feel like it's no coincidence that Bleedred looks at goaltenders and says "a large percentage of the goals they allow are stoppable", and a metric calculated based off the location of shots these goaltenders face says "these goaltenders stop a smaller percentage of the shots against them than they should."
I just now posted this in the out of town scoreboard thread of the Devils forum. Very small sample of goalies used here, but all are between a .901% and .908% save percentage. 8 of the 13 are between 27% and 29% of goals allowed being stoppable. 11 of the 13 are between 27% and 31%.
I only did this for the goalies in the same neighborhood as Keith Kinkaid and the percentages are very close. With Marc Andre-Fleury and Phillipp Grubauer being the two guys that are under that range. Fleury being 25.5% and Grubauer at 22.5%. These are for goalies with between a .901% and a .908% save percentage and a minimum of 12 games played. It's really useless to include guys who have played fewer games than that, as these numbers were all over the place early on. I don't think it's a coincidence that they're all in the same neighborhood. Fleury and Grubauer have been a little bit better on the eye test though.
Keith Kinkaid: 27 games played, .902% save percentage, 77 goals allowed, 22 stoppable goals allowed. 28.5% of goals allowed stoppable.
Carey Price: 28 games played, .902% save percentage. 79 goals allowed, 23 stoppable goals allowed. 29% of goals allowed stoppable.
Martin Jones: 25 games played, .901% save percentage, 68 goals allowed, 20 stoppable goals allowed. 29% of goals allowed stoppable.
Jacob Markstrom: 25 games played, .904% save percentage, 76 goals allowed, 21 stoppable goals allowed. 27.5% of goals allowed stoppable.
Louis Domingue: 18 games played. .905% save percentage, 53 goals allowed, 15 stoppable goals allowed. 28.5% of goals allowed stoppable.
Sergei Bobrovsky: 24 games played, .905% save percentage, 65 goals allowed, 20 stoppable goals allowed. 31% of goals allowed stoppable.
Roberto Luongo: 15 games played, .906% save percentage, 40 goals allowed, 11 stoppable goals allowed. 27.5% of goals allowed stoppable.
Craig Anderson: 30 games played, .907% save percentage, 99 goals allowed, 27 stoppable goals allowed. 27.5% of goals allowed stoppable.
Connor Hellebuyck: 26 games played, .908% save percentage, 73 goals allowed, 22 stoppable goals allowed. 30% of goals allowed stoppable.
Antti Raanta: 12 games played, .906% save percentage, 33 goals allowed, 10 stoppable goals allowed. 30.5% of goals allowed stoppable.
Corey Crawford: 23 games played, .902% save percentage, 71 goals allowed, 19 stoppable. 27% of goals allowed stoppable.
Phillipp Grubauer: 14 games played, .904% save percentage, 40 goals allowed, 9 stoppable goals allowed. 22.5% of goals allowed stoppable.
Marc-Andre Fleury: 31 games played, .908% save percentage, 79 goals allowed, 20 stoppable goals allowed. 25.5% of goals allowed stoppable.
Now these are only for guys near Keith Kinkaid in save percentage and a minimum of 12 games played. All of these guys are between a .901% and .908% save percentage and 11 of them are between 27% and 31% of stoppable goals for percentage by my count. With 8 of the 13 being between 27% and 29% stoppable goals for percentage. So it's pretty close. Fleury and Grubauer are the two outliers in stoppable goals percentage in the same neighborhood save percentage wise.