Whyme
Registered User
- Nov 3, 2019
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Plus-minus needs context because the minus portion is dependent upon goaltender performance.
In the first 21 games, the Oilers scored 82 goals on 676 shots (12.1% shooting percentage) and allowed 61 goals on 714 shots against (0.915 SV%). That's a total goal differential of +21, averaging +1.00 per game.
The next 23 games, the Oilers scored 61 goals on 792 shots (7.7% shooting percentage) and allowed 85 goals on 702 shots against (0.879 SV%). That's a total goal differential of -24, averaging -1.04 per game.
Assuming league average save percentage (0.904) for both stretches (and yes, I do know that we give up some really dangerous chances against, but that's true for both stretches), we should have allowed 69 goals against in the first stretch and 67 goals against in the second stretch. That would mean a total goal differential of +13 in the first stretch (+0.62 per game) and -6 in the second stretch (-0.23 per game).
It's always nice when someone goes through some effort to base their thoughts so thank you! I agree, but (sorry) still do think +- tells something. I mean all stats have their problems. Even point totals, where things like TOI, PP time, linemates, empty netters etc. play a big part. The way I see it is that part of the reason why the goal difference was worse in the 2nd half was that McDavid and Drai couldn't carry the team the way they did in the first half. I know I'm not alone with these thoughts and some media like the EJ saw a decline in the performance too (according to player grades).