Post-Game Talk: Starstruck - Jets 4, Benn 1

[Ducky10]

The elephant in the room still is the PK; how can we possibly run that passive a PK when year-in & year-out, we are among the worst in the NHL. Who is scheming up this PK strategy and how do they still have a job?

Yeah agreed, it's pretty baffling. What exactly are they seeing that they like? Even Ray Ferraro noticed and seemed shocked at how passive the Jets were on the PK, almost as if to say "do they always do this"?

They did do a better job at denying entry on a couple of kills last night, that was at least a positive development.

 

[Gm0ney]

Really?

It would seem in almost all the games we have taken a point out of our XG% has been between 49-51% for the most part which I thought was an indicator of the expected goals regardless of the tendy.

It feels an awful lot like that our corsi number is being flaunted around here lots as an indictment of our play yet score adjusted and XG have kinda fallen by the way side.

It shold also be noted that the number of corsi events we have in score adjusted scenarios is quite small while the number of events we have while playing with the lead is quite large in comparison.

I am a bit worried about our corsi numbers but it does appear shot quality (XG) is making up for some of our shot quantity issues.

Playing with the lead is also having an effect.

Much like the Penguins Stanley Cup run last year it is possible for an inherently good team to have poor corsi numbers for a 25ish game sample size and still come out on top while receiving good goaltending.

I guess the question really is.... Is this a good team who's corsi numbers will at least improve to middle of the pack or is it a bad team who's goaltending is the only reason for their success.

Well that is the question. I think the Jets have been getting unsustainably good goaltending and it's papering over weaknesses. I don't think they're a bad team - but I don't think they've played as well as their record indicates.

 

[Gm0ney]

Well, you seem to bring it up frequently to diminish or discredit any positive discussion about other aspects of the Jets’ play.

I can't bury my head in the sand just based on the W-L record. I care about the how and why along with the end result. Sorry if that's raining on your parade.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Well that is the question. I think the Jets have been getting unsustainably good goaltending and it's papering over weaknesses. I don't think they're a bad team - but I don't think they've played as well as their record indicates.

So Corey Crawford and Jonathan Quick are also giving unsustainably good goaltending too? Quick actually has more shots against in the same number of games that Helly has. LA is just lucky I guess

 

[Dayofthedogs]

Well that is the question. I think the Jets have been getting unsustainably good goaltending and it's papering over weaknesses. I don't think they're a bad team - but I don't think they've played as well as their record indicates.

I guess I'm not so sure. Our XG would seem to indicate we have deserved to take points out of most of the games we have. I haven't seen the number for the habs game but I would figure that and maybe Columbus would be the 2 outliers in this regards.

 

[Gm0ney]

So Corey Crawford and Jonathan Quick are also giving unsustainably good goaltending too? Quick actually has more shots against in the same number of games that Helly has. LA is just lucky I guess

I've only seen the Kings play once this season - and they looked pretty dominant across the board. Haven't seen the Blackhawks play yet except for highlights.

As for sustainability - both Quick and Crawford are playing way above their career averages...so they're probably going to regress back towards that (it seems more likely than the chances that Crawford and Quick are just going to be a .940 goalies from now on).

 

[Bartho]

I can't bury my head in the sand just based on the W-L record. I care about the how and why along with the end result. Sorry if that's raining on your parade.

You're not raining on my parade at all. I still have some concerns, but I don't believe they've been hot garbage other than Helle. Good teams usually have good goaltending. If you want to use that as a tool for derision, be my guest. It's amusing.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I say ride the great goaltending as long as possible. Yes, Helle most likely will come back down to earth, but, by that point Perrault will be back. By that point the ELL line will either start connecting or they will be broken up and then there will be more goals scored. Neither the LA Kings or the Blackhawks are as young as we are. I believe that Connor will get it going soon as he gains more confidence and Laine and Ehlers will also start being more dominant. If not, the Jets lose a few games and S and W get broken up and then the new lines score.

 

[Dayofthedogs]

I say ride the great goaltending as long as possible. Yes, Helle most likely will come back down to earth, but, by that point Perrault will be back. By that point the ELL line will either start connecting or they will be broken up and then there will be more goals scored. Neither the LA Kings or the Blackhawks are as young as we are. I believe that Connor will get it going soon as he gains more confidence and Laine and Ehlers will also start being more dominant. If not, the Jets lose a few games and S and W get broken up and then the new lines score.

Riding the hot goalie doesn't have to mean playing him every single game until he finally crumbles.... It can also mean giving him 3 out of 4 starts or something like this.

It's not the worst idea to have Hellebyuck watch a game here or there from the bench while feeling really really good about his play.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Was flying home during the game so I didn't watch it until I woke up this morning. Wow did my morning coffee ever taste good today

 

[Adam da bomb]

Riding the hot goalie doesn't have to mean playing him every single game until he finally crumbles.... It can also mean giving him 3 out of 4 starts or something like this.

It's not the worst idea to have Hellebyuck watch a game here or there from the bench while feeling really really good about his play.

I never said that you had to play him every game. I was talking more about how people are talking about how the Jets are not having the best Corsi or that they aren't scoring enough. Or they are not playing the optimal lines. Although, I will say that Hendricks is a tire fire, a tire fire I will put up with if the Jets keep winning.

 

[DarthMonty]

That Wheeler guy knows how to hockey.

Hellebuyck's fundamentals are different. He's moving less, and more effectively when he does, and he's tracking the puck better and/or differently than this time last year. He doesn't look the same. I'm not qualified enough to explain and describe what he's doing differently, but to me, it's just nothing like last year's jumpy and tentative 'keeper.

Question for anybody who may know the answer - based on the two games against Dallas, is it possible that there are multiple crews (or crew members) in Toronto reviewing disputed calls? Because if Tanev's goal was disallowed due to Scheifele's "interference", how was that not interference last night? There's no way the same person could've reviewed those two goals and arrived as such opposing conclusions.

 

[Whileee]

The Jets are front-runners this season.

Interesting facts....

Jets 5v5...

49% of time leading (27.4% with 2+ goal lead) - (#2 in the NHL for % of time leading, and #1 for % of time with a 2+ goal lead)
35% of time tied
16% of time trailing (2nd last in the NHL)

So the Jets are spending an inordinate amount of time leading, and especially leading by 2+ goals.

In terms of shot metrics, they are middle of the pack in CF% tied, poor when trailing (though they haven't trailed much), and poor with a 1 goal lead (not bad with a 2+ goal lead).

 

[Aavco Cup]

I'm a noob. What does score adjusted mean exactly?

IIRC score effects become evident in the first two periods when there is a 2 goal lead and in the third period with a 1 goal lead.

The stats community applies an average adjustment to these situations. The adjustment they use was determined by analyzing the phenomenon over several seasons of data. A few thousand games.

Certainly it would seem logical to assume some teams have larger score effects that others but using the average allows a better context to the story the numbers are actually telling.

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

I can't bury my head in the sand just based on the W-L record. I care about the how and why along with the end result. Sorry if that's raining on your parade.

anyone have recent graphs showing shot locations? my impression was that jets were killing it as far as keeping majority of opposing shots to the outside this season. very few high quality shots being given up.

 

[Jimby]

Also worth noting is that 11 of the Jets 19 points came in games where their score adjusted Corsi (or Corsi Close too) was over 50%. As Ferrarro was saying last night during the broadcast - nowadays teams can only succeed if their goalie steals some games and if they get some bounces so they win games they "shouldn't" win. Every game can't be a Picasso. The Jets are doing well enough in the corsi dept. that no one should be on the ledge.

 

[Gm0ney]

anyone have recent graphs showing shot locations? my impression was that jets were killing it as far as keeping majority of opposing shots to the outside this season. very few high quality shots being given up.

I think Corsica.hockey has them. But I can't usually get that site to work at all. Some config issue on my end combined with that site's general flakiness.

Natural Stat Trick has game-by-game charts: https://www.naturalstattrick.com/games.php?team=WPG but nothing cumulative. The Jets did quite well last night at keeping Dallas out of the low-slot danger zone at even strength (it looks worse if you look at all situations because the PK wasn't great in that area).

YWG posted some nice charts that had the shooting player's name - can't recall where those were from.

 

[Eyeseeing]

I think the number of pucks that have crossed our goal line , compared to the number of pucks we are putting across the other teams goal line during a game are making Helle appear to be good ..
That might be the Win - Loss stat can someone from advanced stats department verify for me please ?

 

[SensibleGuy]

I think the number of pucks that have crossed our goal line , compared to the number of pucks we are putting across the other teams goal line during a game are making Helle appear to be good ..
That might be the Win - Loss stat can someone from advanced stats department verify for me please ?

Yeah, all this advanced stat stuff is just hogwash! Teams should just pick players that get more pucks across opposing goal lines! It's so stupidly obvious! Now lets see...which players seem to get the most pucks over opposing goal lines? Hmmmmm....is it the players that don't have the puck very much? Noooooo....that does't seem to make much sense....hmmmm....is it the players that DO have the puck alot? That seems plausible! OK...how do we determine which players have the puck the most??? Hmmmm....

 

[Larabee]

Question for anybody who may know the answer - based on the two games against Dallas, is it possible that there are multiple crews (or crew members) in Toronto reviewing disputed calls? Because if Tanev's goal was disallowed due to Scheifele's "interference", how was that not interference last night? There's no way the same person could've reviewed those two goals and arrived as such opposing conclusions.

Does it even go to Toronto ? Or do the refs decide by looking at their little iPad ? If it was going to Toronto, then you'd expect at least some degree of consistency...

 

[Channelcat]

Yeah, all this advanced stat stuff is just hogwash! Teams should just pick players that get more pucks across opposing goal lines! It's so stupidly obvious! Now lets see...which players seem to get the most pucks over opposing goal lines? Hmmmmm....is it the players that don't have the puck very much? Noooooo....that does't seem to make much sense....hmmmm....is it the players that DO have the puck alot? That seems plausible! OK...how do we determine which players have the puck the most??? Hmmmm....

Well....it is pretty amazing how many people choose bad data over good data.

 

[jetsforever]

Since we have no Scheifele thread (why is that so anyway?), I didn't knew where to post this:



Scheitele is in the new video from the One The Bench Guys

Hopefully he learned something

 

[Aavco Cup]

Since we have no Scheifele thread (why is that so anyway?), I didn't knew where to post this:



Scheitele is in the new video from the One The Bench Guys

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/search/348441/?q=Scheifele&o=date&c[title_only]=1&c[node]=29

 

[Jet]

I'm starting to get worried about Trouba. He's making a lot of mistakes, really fighting it. You can see he's trying to push through hard but he's got to be much better.

Elite goaltending can do wonders for a team.

 

[Guffman]

Great game
Nobody to put down
Criticize
Trade
Fire
Send down
Kinda nice
Beat Vegas
GJG

Well, that’s boring since there isn’t a game until Friday. We need to squabble about SOMETHING!!