Prospect Info: St. Louis Blues Top-20 Prospects: #9

[ChicagoBlues]

2022 Prospect Rankings:

#1 Zachary Bolduc (75.8%)
#2 Jake Neighbours (50.9%)
#3 Jimmy Snuggerud (51%)
#4 Scott Perunovich (86.8%)
#5 Joel Hofer (50%)
#6 Alexei Toropchenko (55.3%)
#7 Nikita Alexandrov (33.3%)
#8 Matt Kessel (38.7%)
#9 ?

I added three more players.

You can change your vote.

Poll closes in 2 days.

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[STL fan in MN]

We’re down to Kostin and a bunch of 3rd round (or later) guys.

Kostin has already made it to the NHL (sort of) but he’s just so hockey dumb that I don’t think he’ll ever be much of a factor at the NHL level. Which is a shame as based purely on tools, he absolutely should be an NHL caliber player.

For now, I value some of the boom or bust mid round pick guys more as they at least have a chance to become something. Here, I’m going to go with Kaskimaki - the guy that led the Finnish Jr league in scoring and scouts noted as being among the best in terms of skating/speed/acceleration in the 2022 draft class. Looking for him to take a nice step into Liiga this season.

Probably Koromyslov after that. He plays a very similar game to Lööf but I like his rush defense and defense of the blueline a bit more. He can also be very mean. Sort of like a Gunnarson with a mean steak or Mikkola with slightly better hands.

I want to vote for Dickinson but am holding out a bit as I want to see how he plays after the big injury first. Without the injury, I would’ve had him on par with Kessel but that’s a big question mark now.

 

[Majorityof1]

I voted Ellis again. He is one year removed from dominating the QMJHL with 23-1 record, sub 2 GAA in juniors. He did struggle last year but he was on a pretty bad team and he was only 20, an age when a lot of goalies are still in juniors.

Plus the organization is showing faith in him. We did not sign a AHL goalie replacement to replace Lindgren. Griess replaces Husso. The organization has enough faith in our 3 young goalies not to sign a veteran minor league goalie. We easily could have kept Zherenko in Liiga, kept Ellis in ECHL and signed a vet if they didn't trust Ellis.

Ellis will be our AHL backup at 21, an injury away from AHL starter. That is the same position we gave Hofer last year when he was the same age. They have very similar career trajectories. Hofer didn't exactly light the world on fire as a 20 year old either. Granted he was a league up but he was also getting cherry-picked starts. Despite the similarity in their trajectories, Hofer is considered a top 5 pick and I'm the only one voting for Ellis @9? Doesn't make sense to me.

Edit: Comparing Hofer and Ellis is only in their results, and career trajectory. Stylistically they are different types of goalies. Hofer is big with good positioning. Ellis is smaller (not small, just smaller) and very, very athletic. I tend to prefer Hofer's style more than Ellis. But Ellis is very good at how he plays. I think the flaws in his game can very much be worked on. You can improve positioning and moving too much in net. Its much harder to achieve Ellis' Gumby level of flexbility and speed of movement across the crease.

 

[Beauterham]

Buchinger again.


Add Brady Lyle

 

[Frenzy31]

This is tough. Ellis makes sense. I like Washkurak is likely a 4th liner at best, I like Dickinson due to having a higher ceiling and I really liked what I was of Sim. Tucker is also closer, but more as a 7th dman so who knows.

I went with Ellis.

 

[Blueston]

Loof!

 

[ChicagoBlues]

The only 7th-rounder included in these polls is Tyler Tucker. He's playing pro on a good team, so he stands a decent enough shot of making it to the NHL for a stint at some point.

This will be a big year for Alexandrov and Tucker.

McGing and Laferrière are in the last year of their ELCs. It would be great if one of them surprises us.

I will add Brady Lyle and Vadim Zherenko next round.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

Kostin is pretty much running away with this one, so I might start #10 soon.

 

[STL fan in MN]

I voted Ellis again. He is one year removed from dominating the QMJHL with 23-1 record, sub 2 GAA in juniors. He did struggle last year but he was on a pretty bad team and he was only 20, an age when a lot of goalies are still in juniors.

Plus the organization is showing faith in him. We did not sign a AHL goalie replacement to replace Lindgren. Griess replaces Husso. The organization has enough faith in our 3 young goalies not to sign a veteran minor league goalie. We easily could have kept Zherenko in Liiga, kept Ellis in ECHL and signed a vet if they didn't trust Ellis.

Ellis will be our AHL backup at 21, an injury away from AHL starter. That is the same position we gave Hofer last year when he was the same age. They have very similar career trajectories. Hofer didn't exactly light the world on fire as a 20 year old either. Granted he was a league up but he was also getting cherry-picked starts. Despite the similarity in their trajectories, Hofer is considered a top 5 pick and I'm the only one voting for Ellis @9? Doesn't make sense to me.

Edit: Comparing Hofer and Ellis is only in their results, and career trajectory. Stylistically they are different types of goalies. Hofer is big with good positioning. Ellis is smaller (not small, just smaller) and very, very athletic. I tend to prefer Hofer's style more than Ellis. But Ellis is very good at how he plays. I think the flaws in his game can very much be worked on. You can improve positioning and moving too much in net. Its much harder to achieve Ellis' Gumby level of flexbility and speed of movement across the crease.

I would agree with the stylistic comparisons of the two. But that’s also why I prefer Hofer by quite a bit. He’s square to the shooter, few wasted movements. His mechanics are simply quite a bit better.

But I’d agree that Ellis does display a high level of athleticism. He could be something if he’s able to improve his mechanics…but that’s also a pretty big ask IMO.

Also, I may be misreading you but it seems like you’re saying Hofer is a year older than Ellis. He’s 2 months and a few days older. They’re the same birth year.

At this point, I’d say it’s more likely than not Ellis wins the backup T-Birds job but I wouldn’t be surprised if Zherenko steals it from him.

My guess as the minors goalies is:
AHL
Hofer
Ellis/Zherenko

ECHL
Zherenko/Ellis
Cranley

 

[Majorityof1]

I would agree with the stylistic comparisons of the two. But that’s also why I prefer Hofer by quite a bit. He’s square to the shooter, few wasted movements. His mechanics are simply quite a bit better.

But I’d agree that Ellis does display a high level of athleticism. He could be something if he’s able to improve his mechanics…but that’s also a pretty big ask IMO.

Also, I may be misreading you but it seems like you’re saying Hofer is a year older than Ellis. He’s 2 months and a few days older. They’re the same birth year.

At this point, I’d say it’s more likely than not Ellis wins the backup T-Birds job but I wouldn’t be surprised if Zherenko steals it from him.

My guess as the minors goalies is:
AHL
Hofer
Ellis/Zherenko

ECHL
Zherenko/Ellis
Cranley

Ellis is a draft year later, so those 2 months matter. I didn't realize they were that close. I just knew Ellis was drafted a year later and he is listed at 22 while Ellis is listed at 21, But Ellis will turn 22 early in the season. He is old for his draft year. I think its still fair to evaluate them by where they are in their D+2, D+3 years as opposed to birth year.

I wouldn't be shocked if Zherenko beat Ellis. Zherenko is really good too. Zherenko has experience against men in Liiga. We have 3 good young goalies (not a fan of Cranley). I think Ellis has more potential than Zherenko but I wouldn't sleep on him. He is also athletic and bigger than Ellis. He is actually the thickest of the goalies and only an inch or 2 shorter than Hofer. He has much better quickness than Hofer to boot.

I agree about Hofer being better and more my preference. IMy point was that the gap isn't so huge as people think. Ellis is really good. I think you over-estimate his issues. Every young goalie has things to work on. With his speed, flexibility and aggressiveness, if he can fix the other things, he will be fantastic.

 

[stl76]

Also, I may be misreading you but it seems like you’re saying Hofer is a year older than Ellis. He’s 2 months and a few days older. They’re the same birth year.

This is a really important point, especially when viewing Ellis' last year in the Q. I don't know the exact cut off for the overager rule in the CHL, but Ellis was essentially 20 that whole year. Add in the fact it was a weird covid year and I personally don't put a ton of stock in that year. Very curious to see if Ellis can grab an AHL job and perform well this year.

 

[STL fan in MN]

Ellis is a draft year later, so those 2 months matter. I didn't realize they were that close. I just knew Ellis was drafted a year later and he is listed at 22 while Ellis is listed at 21, But Ellis will turn 22 early in the season. He is old for his draft year. I think its still fair to evaluate them by where they are in their D+2, D+3 years as opposed to birth year.

I wouldn't be shocked if Zherenko beat Ellis. Zherenko is really good too. Zherenko has experience against men in Liiga. We have 3 good young goalies (not a fan of Cranley). I think Ellis has more potential than Zherenko but I wouldn't sleep on him. He is also athletic and bigger than Ellis. He is actually the thickest of the goalies and only an inch or 2 shorter than Hofer. He has much better quickness than Hofer to boot.

I agree about Hofer being better and more my preference. IMy point was that the gap isn't so huge as people think. Ellis is really good. I think you over-estimate his issues. Every young goalie has things to work on. With his speed, flexibility and aggressiveness, if he can fix the other things, he will be fantastic.

Those 2 months matter in terms of when they were first NHL draft eligible but disagree that they should be evaluated based on draft year instead of birth year. All of youth and Jr hockey is based on birth year. Both Hofer and Ellis have been moving up the ranks at the same time, became eligible for Jr hockey at the same time etc. I don’t think the NHL having their draft age cutoff a couple weeks before Ellis’ birthday really changes that.

And as stl76 correctly pointed out, Ellis’ last year in Jrs was as an overager. That said, that was right in the middle of a global pandemic so all sorts of things got screwed up so I won’t hold that against Ellis. But it does diminish his very good numbers that year a bit as he was a 20 yr old in a league made up of primarily 16-19 year olds.

I will root for Ellis to solidify his mechanics and he certainly has the ability to shoot up these rankings but there’s a reason why I currently value Hofer a fair amount higher than him.