BaseballCoach
Registered User
- Dec 15, 2006
- 20,703
- 9,075
As we are into the playoff stretch run, the Sports Club Stats site is followed by a lot of fans.
I would like to discuss what we see there, without using this thread to talk about trades, the GM, the coach, etc. Just odds, tendencies, and what is at stake in various games.
As of this morning after the Super Bowl, we start the annual stretch run.
From the Habs point of view here is what I see on the site:
15% chance of missing the playoffs
15% chance of getting the last wild card spot (and almost surely facing Tampa Bay in the 1st round)
32% chance of getting the first wild card spot (and navigating the playoffs as a Metro division team)
30% chance of finishing 3rd in the Atlantic (and probably facing Toronto)
8% chance of finishing 2nd in the Atlantic and starting at home against either Toronto or Boston
From the league standings this morning:
On pace for 99 points
4th in winning percentage in the Atlantic
5th in winning percentage in the Eastern Conference
9th in winning percentage in the League
Only the Islanders surpass us in the Metro Division and only Calgary, Winnipeg, Sn Jose and Nashville surpass us in the West.
Habs are currently ahead of last year's Cup Champs and Finalists, and all previous Cup champs since the lockout except for the Bruins.
There is a whole bunch of new contending teams that Montreal needs to compete with.
The next nine games - which include our first tilt with Winnipeg, and two games with Toronto, plus Tampa Bay, Nashville and Columbus - will say a lot about what the gap between the Habs and the contending group is.
We could review the Sports Club Stats site each Monday as the race heats up!
I would like to discuss what we see there, without using this thread to talk about trades, the GM, the coach, etc. Just odds, tendencies, and what is at stake in various games.
As of this morning after the Super Bowl, we start the annual stretch run.
From the Habs point of view here is what I see on the site:
15% chance of missing the playoffs
15% chance of getting the last wild card spot (and almost surely facing Tampa Bay in the 1st round)
32% chance of getting the first wild card spot (and navigating the playoffs as a Metro division team)
30% chance of finishing 3rd in the Atlantic (and probably facing Toronto)
8% chance of finishing 2nd in the Atlantic and starting at home against either Toronto or Boston
From the league standings this morning:
On pace for 99 points
4th in winning percentage in the Atlantic
5th in winning percentage in the Eastern Conference
9th in winning percentage in the League
Only the Islanders surpass us in the Metro Division and only Calgary, Winnipeg, Sn Jose and Nashville surpass us in the West.
Habs are currently ahead of last year's Cup Champs and Finalists, and all previous Cup champs since the lockout except for the Bruins.
There is a whole bunch of new contending teams that Montreal needs to compete with.
The next nine games - which include our first tilt with Winnipeg, and two games with Toronto, plus Tampa Bay, Nashville and Columbus - will say a lot about what the gap between the Habs and the contending group is.
We could review the Sports Club Stats site each Monday as the race heats up!
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