Sporting News: Which NHL rookies will stick, or be sent packing, after first 9 games

Discussion in 'NHL Draft - Prospects' started by Steve Kournianos, Oct 23, 2018.

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  1. Steve Kournianos

    Steve Kournianos @thedraftanalyst

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    NHL Slide Rule: Which youngsters will stick, or be sent packing, after first nine games

    My first article of the season for Sporting News, with new draft rankings, mock drafts and NHL Rookie of the Month coming up in November.

    I think Bouchard and Lundestrom are two exceptions where the individual stats aren't painting the big picture. Only difference is the Oilers actually need Bouchard, whereas the Ducks have forwards coming back from injury.

    Follow nightly NHL Rookie progress at my blog here: The Draft Analyst | CalderWatch
     
  2. ImNeverWrong

    ImNeverWrong Registered User

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    oilers need bouchard? kids playing under 14 minutes and barely gets a lick on the pp (i think he's played like 4 minutes). when his whole thing is that he can be a pp qb. he's literally rotting playing 10 fo 13 minutes a night in such a reduced role in the most meaningful time of a players development. Another example of oilers failing at development.
     
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  3. Skinnyjimmy08

    Skinnyjimmy08 WorldTraveler

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    I agree with the "pack your bags" list but also feel Bouchard needs to go back to junior forsure. Also isnt Yamamoto and Valimaki AHL eligble now??(late birthdays)...So they can go back and forth so the 9 games doesnt matter... Unless im missing something
     
  4. Steve Kournianos

    Steve Kournianos @thedraftanalyst

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    I get it, but who replaces him once he's sent down? He's too skilled and smart to be pigeonholed into a bottom-pairing guy for his career. He's going to be around for a long time so it's not like the mistakes he'll make are irreversible. He's not going to learn how to play with McDavid if he's back with London. Only thing I would suggest is to play him on the top PP unit more often than just Klefbom, but like I said in the article, the PP is clicking so don't see any changes happening for now.
     
  5. Steve Kournianos

    Steve Kournianos @thedraftanalyst

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    Both are slide eligible since they were under 19 in the first year of their contract. It'll be a two-way deal to the AHL but it doesn't impact the cap until they hit the 10+ game mark this season.

    Entry-Level Slide Candidates - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps
     
  6. ImNeverWrong

    ImNeverWrong Registered User

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    Not saying he will be a bottom pairing guy for the rest of his career, but there is a danger of his progress being hindered if he continues to play such minutes. He's 18 years old! To give these kind of irrelevant minutes to a kid when he should be playing 20+ minutes nightly is horrid.

    Who can replace him? Doesn't matter, the goal should be to develop this player to its fullest than any kind of short term misguided team success they find with him in the lineup. Plus I'm sure there are a lot of veteran dmen available that can play the 11 minutes that the kid plays. Instead of throwing this kid into the fire for the sake of need, Chiarelli, the clown should have found a short term bandaid solution. Two years in a row he has done nothing with an injury to sekera, except this year his apparent bandaid is a top 10 draft pick that's only playing on the team because the team has no defensive depth. That's horrible management.
     
  7. Lays

    Lays Vitaly Swagtsov

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    Bouchard playing 20+ mins a night would be much worse for his development than his current situation
     
  8. ImNeverWrong

    ImNeverWrong Registered User

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    Yah barely playing is totally great for development :sarcasm:
     
  9. AveryStar4Eva

    AveryStar4Eva Registered User

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    Good article hard to follow all the teams, but looks like all your choices could be correct. Bouchard and Valimaki are two that I’m not 100% sure about. Both havent looked out of place in the NHL.
     
  10. Lays

    Lays Vitaly Swagtsov

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    Playing 20+ mins a night for a dman who just got drafted out of juniors is how you ruin him. Especially an offensive dman like Bouchard you shelter them
     
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  11. theslatcher

    theslatcher Registered User

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    I'd be shocked if the Oilers kept Bouchard up, better to put him back to the O where he'll develop alongside Boqvist.
     
  12. kabidjan18

    kabidjan18 Registered User

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    The terms under which this assessment is being made are silly. He's playing about 13.5 a night, and over 14.5 the last game. When we talk about "barely playing", particularly as it pertains to amounts of playing time that are adequately small as to stunt an athlete's growth, 11-12 should be the threshold maximum for such a consideration to even be made. Sub 10 is more reasonably disconcerting. The 6-8 range is extremely hazardous, and sub 6 is a dire situation. 13.5, while perhaps not ideal, does not reasonably qualify for "barely playing", especially that there are 2 rotation defensemen on his team who average less.
     
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  13. Filip Zadina

    Filip Zadina ~

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    Rasmussen's not being sent down yet.
     
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  14. Sens of Anarchy

    Sens of Anarchy Registered User

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    Agree Tkachuk stays up and Formenton goes down
     
  15. ChaoticOrange

    ChaoticOrange Registered User

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    Bouchard only got 9 minutes tonight against the Pens.

    He’s looked good, and he’s keeping up, but keeping him at this point would be irresponsible if you’re playing him that sparingly.
     
  16. CraigBillington

    CraigBillington Registered User

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    I wonder why people have a hard time understanding this. A year or two of playing 13 minutes (ornan occasional benching) won't hurt, it's more about him earning his ice time, learning to live like a pro, getting practice time with actual NHL players. Like you said, handing him too much before he is ready is much worse than bringing him along slowly.
     
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  17. Steve Kournianos

    Steve Kournianos @thedraftanalyst

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    Subban, EK, Doughty and Hedman all played over 20 mins a game as rookies. Same with Jokiharju, Heiskanen and Dahlin. I don’t think TOI has anything to do with it.

    How a rookie teenager is treated/mentored by his coach and staff is far more critical to development than how and when he’s used. Even still, some rookies are just turds (Daigle, Filatov, Ho-Sang etc) that the best mentoring in the world couldnt save. A lot of responsibility falls on the kids themselves.

    Just guessing here, but if you asked 100 rookie defensemen if they’d rather play 13 or 20 mins in the NHL or return to juniors (if money was the same), all 100 would want to stay no matter what.

    I don’t think there’s any data that can confirm/deny the idea that TOI as a rookie can make or break a career. It’s a minor piece among dozens of other factors.
     
  18. theslatcher

    theslatcher Registered User

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    Subban was 21 his rookie season. EK, Jokiharju, & Heiskanen were a year removed from their drafts their rookie seasons. And then there's Hedman, Doughty, & Dahlin who were drafted 2, 2, & 1. Bad comparables imo.
     
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  19. ImNeverWrong

    ImNeverWrong Registered User

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    Like the Oilers have a good history of developing players.

    The kid played 9 minutes last night. Please explain to me how this is good for him? Forcing 18 year olds to earn minutes in the nhl? What an asinine ask. I dont care how bad the Oilers defense is. Theres literally dozens of 5,6, 7 dmen that can do what the kid does right now without making the team hinder his development. So not only is he playing under 10 minutes a night hes also playing sheltered minutes. How is he developing or learning?
     
  20. TheBradyBunch

    TheBradyBunch Registered User

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    Chytil can go to AHL and then come back up later, no?
     
  21. Irishguy42

    Irishguy42 Registered User Sponsor

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    He can come back up but it would burn a year on his ELC as he gas played 9 games already.
     
  22. TheBradyBunch

    TheBradyBunch Registered User

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    Yep, of course :)
     
  23. Steve Kournianos

    Steve Kournianos @thedraftanalyst

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    What’s asinine is the idea he’s being wasted or improperly developed less than a month into his career. Has Bouchard come out and said so? His coaches? Front office? The numbers indicate he’s holding his own when he does play. That’s my point for keeping him, in addition to the fact that the Oilers are weak on defense and could actually use him.

    What proof is out there that says playing limited sheltered minutes as a 19-year-old defenseman on a bad team is harmful?
     
  24. Steve Kournianos

    Steve Kournianos @thedraftanalyst

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    Hanifin and Chychrun both played after their draft years on bad teams and both improved significantly the following year. Chychrun’s TOI increased almost four minutes a game in his second season. Both played over 20 mins a game or close to it for a significant portion of their rookie seasons.
     
  25. TheMule93

    TheMule93 On a mule rides the swindler

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    Dennis Cholowski is already our 1D so he's staying. Blashill said they plan to keep Rasmussen up long term.
     

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